Validation of Logistic Regression Models for Landslide Susceptibility Maps

A wide range of numerical models and tools have been developed over the last decades to support the decision making process in environmental applications, ranging from physical models to a variety of statistically-based methods. In this study, a landslide susceptibility map of a part of Three Gorges Reservoir region of China was produced, employing binary logistic regression analyses. The available information includes the digital elevation model of the region, geological map and different GIS layers including land cover data obtained from satellite imagery. The landslides were observed and documented during the field studies. The validation analysis is exploited to investigate the quality of mapping.

A CMR study of the effects of tissue edema and necrosis on left ventricular dyssynchrony in acute myocardial infarction: implications for cardiac resynchronization therapy.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: In acute myocardial infarction (AMI), both tissue necrosis and edema are present and both might be implicated in the development of intraventricular dyssynchrony. However, their relative contribution to transient dyssynchrony is not known. Cardiovascular magnetic resonance (CMR) can detect necrosis and edema with high spatial resolution and it can quantify dyssynchrony by tagging techniques. METHODS: Patients with a first AMI underwent percutaneous coronary interventions (PCI) of the infarct-related artery within 24 h of onset of chest pain. Within 5-7 days after the event and at 4 months, CMR was performed. The CMR protocol included the evaluation of intraventricular dyssynchrony by applying a novel 3D-tagging sequence to the left ventricle (LV) yielding the CURE index (circumferential uniformity ratio estimate; 1 = complete synchrony). On T2-weighted images, edema was measured as high-signal (>2 SD above remote tissue) along the LV mid-myocardial circumference on 3 short-axis images (% of circumference corresponding to the area-at-risk). In analogy, on late-gadolinium enhancement (LGE) images, necrosis was quantified manually as percentage of LV mid-myocardial circumference on 3 short-axis images. Necrosis was also quantified on LGE images covering the entire LV (expressed as %LV mass). Finally, salvaged myocardium was calculated as the area-at-risk minus necrosis (expressed as % of LV circumference). RESULTS: After successful PCI (n = 22, 2 female, mean age: 57 ± 12y), peak troponin T was 20 ± 36ug/l and the LV ejection fraction on CMR was 41 ± 8%. Necrosis mass was 30 ± 10% and CURE was 0.91 ± 0.05. Edema was measured as 58 ± 14% of the LV circumference. In the acute phase, the extent of edema correlated with dyssynchrony (r2 = -0.63, p < 0.01), while extent of necrosis showed borderline correlation (r2 = -0.19, p = 0.05). PCI resulted in salvaged myocardium of 27 ± 14%. LV dyssynchrony (=CURE) decreased at 4 months from 0.91 ± 0.05 to 0.94 ± 0.03 (p < 0.004, paired t-test). At 4 months, edema was absent and scar %LV slightly shrunk to 23.7 ± 10.0% (p < 0.002 vs baseline). Regression of LV dyssynchrony during the 4 months follow-up period was predicted by both, the extent of edema and its necrosis component in the acute phase. CONCLUSIONS: In the acute phase of infarction, LV dyssynchrony is closely related to the extent of edema, while necrosis is a poor predictor of acute LV dyssynchrony. Conversely, regression of intraventricular LV dyssynchrony during infarct healing is predicted by the extent of necrosis in the acute phase.

Sociodemographic and occupational risk factors associated with the development of different burnout types: the cross-sectional University of Zaragoza study

BACKGROUND: Three different burnout types have been described: The "frenetic" type describes involved and ambitious subjects who sacrifice their health and personal lives for their jobs; the "underchallenged" type describes indifferent and bored workers who fail to find personal development in their jobs, and the "worn-out" in type describes neglectful subjects who feel they have little control over results and whose efforts go unacknowledged. The study aimed to describe the possible associations between burnout types and general sociodemographic and occupational characteristics. METHODS: A cross-sectional study was carried out on a multi-occupational sample of randomly selected university employees (n = 409). The presence of burnout types was assessed by means of the "Burnout Clinical Subtype Questionnaire (BCSQ-36)", and the degree of association between variables was assessed using an adjusted odds ratio (OR) obtained from multivariate logistic regression models. RESULTS: Individuals working more than 40 hours per week presented with the greatest risk for "frenetic" burnout compared to those working fewer than 35 hours (adjusted OR = 5.69; 95% CI = 2.52-12.82; p < 0.001). Administration and service personnel presented the greatest risk of "underchallenged" burnout compared to teaching and research staff (adjusted OR = 2.85; 95% CI = 1.16-7.01; p = 0.023). Employees with more than sixteen years of service in the organisation presented the greatest risk of "worn-out" burnout compared to those with less than four years of service (adjusted OR = 4.56; 95% CI = 1.47-14.16; p = 0.009). CONCLUSIONS: This study is the first to our knowledge that suggests the existence of associations between the different burnout subtypes (classified according to the degree of dedication to work) and the different sociodemographic and occupational characteristics that are congruent with the definition of each of the subtypes. These results are consistent with the clinical profile definitions of burnout syndrome. In addition, they assist the recognition of distinct profiles and reinforce the idea of differential characterisation of the syndrome for more effective treatment.

Prognostic factors in left-sided endocarditis: results from the andalusian multicenter cohort

Despite medical advances, mortality in infective endocarditis (IE) is still very high. Previous studies on prognosis in IE have observed conflicting results. The aim of this study was to identify predictors of in-hospital mortality in a large multicenter cohort of left-sided IE.Methods An observational multicenter study was conducted from January 1984 to December 2006 in seven hospitals in Andalusia, Spain. Seven hundred and five left-side IE patients were included. The main outcome measure was in-hospital mortality. Several prognostic factors were analysed by univariate tests and then by multilogistic regression model. Results.The overall mortality was 29.5% (25.5% from 1984 to 1995 and 31.9% from 1996 to 2006; Odds Ratio 1.25; 95% Confidence Interval: 0.97-1.60; p = 0.07). In univariate analysis, age, comorbidity, especially chronic liver disease, prosthetic valve, virulent microorganism such as Staphylococcus aureus, Streptococcus agalactiae and fungi, and complications (septic shock, severe heart failure, renal insufficiency, neurologic manifestations and perivalvular extension) were related with higher mortality. Independent factors for mortality in multivariate analysis were: Charlson comorbidity score (OR: 1.2; 95% CI: 1.1-1.3), prosthetic endocarditis (OR: 1.9; CI: 1.2-3.1), Staphylococcus aureus aetiology (OR: 2.1; CI: 1.3-3.5), severe heart failure (OR: 5.4; CI: 3.3-8.8), neurologic manifestations (OR: 1.9; CI: 1.2-2.9), septic shock (OR: 4.2; CI: 2.3-7.7), perivalvular extension (OR: 2.4; CI: 1.3-4.5) and acute renal failure (OR: 1.69; CI: 1.0-2.6). Conversely, Streptococcus viridans group etiology (OR: 0.4; CI: 0.2-0.7) and surgical treatment (OR: 0.5; CI: 0.3-0.8) were protective factors.Conclusions Several characteristics of left-sided endocarditis enable selection of a patient group at higher risk of mortality. This group may benefit from more specialised attention in referral centers and should help to identify those patients who might benefit from more aggressive diagnostic and/or therapeutic procedures.

Long-Term Control of Endemic Hospital-Wide Methicillin-Resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA): The Impact of Targeted Active Surveillance for MRSA in Patients and Healthcare Workers

To evaluate the long-term impact of successive interventions on rates of methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) colonization or infection and MRSA bacteremia in an endemic hospital-wide situation. DESIGN:Quasi-experimental, interrupted time-series analysis. The impact of the interventions was analyzed by use of segmented regression. Representative MRSA isolates were typed by use of pulsed-field gel electrophoresis. SETTING:A 950-bed teaching hospital in Seville, Spain. PATIENTS:All patients admitted to the hospital during the period from 1995 through 2008. METHODS:Three successive interventions were studied: (1) contact precautions, with no active surveillance for MRSA; (2) targeted active surveillance for MRSA in patients and healthcare workers in specific wards, prioritized according to clinical epidemiology data; and (3) targeted active surveillance for MRSA in patients admitted from other medical centers. RESULTS:Neither the preintervention rate of MRSA colonization or infection (0.56 cases per 1,000 patient-days [95% confidence interval {CI}, 0.49-0.62 cases per 1,000 patient-days]) nor the slope for the rate of MRSA colonization or infection changed significantly after the first intervention. The rate decreased significantly to 0.28 cases per 1,000 patient-days (95% CI, 0.17-0.40 cases per 1,000 patient-days) after the second intervention and to 0.07 cases per 1,000 patient-days (95% CI, 0.06-0.08 cases per 1,000 patient-days) after the third intervention, and the rate remained at a similar level for 8 years. The MRSA bacteremia rate decreased by 80%, whereas the rate of bacteremia due to methicillin-susceptible S. aureus did not change. Eighty-three percent of the MRSA isolates identified were clonally related. All MRSA isolates obtained from healthcare workers were clonally related to those recovered from patients who were in their care. CONCLUSION:Our data indicate that long-term control of endemic MRSA is feasible in tertiary care centers. The use of targeted active surveillance for MRSA in patients and healthcare workers in specific wards (identified by means of analysis of clinical epidemiology data) and the use of decolonization were key to the success of the program.

Time-series regression models to study the short-term effects of environmental factors on health

Time series regression models are especially suitable in epidemiology for evaluating short-term effects of time-varying exposures on health. The problem is that potential for confounding in time series regression is very high. Thus, it is important that trend and seasonality are properly accounted for. Our paper reviews the statistical models commonly used in time-series regression methods, specially allowing for serial correlation, make them potentially useful for selected epidemiological purposes. In particular, we discuss the use of time-series regression for counts using a wide range Generalised Linear Models as well as Generalised Additive Models. In addition, recently critical points in using statistical software for GAM were stressed, and reanalyses of time series data on air pollution and health were performed in order to update already published. Applications are offered through an example on the relationship between asthma emergency admissions and photochemical air pollutants

Analysis of Pleistocene paleodrainage evolution in the Po Basin (Italy) by multivariate statistical techniques

In order to obtain a high-resolution Pleistocene stratigraphy, eleven continuouslycored boreholes, 100 to 220m deep were drilled in the northern part of the PoPlain by Regione Lombardia in the last five years. Quantitative provenanceanalysis (QPA, Weltje and von Eynatten, 2004) of Pleistocene sands was carriedout by using multivariate statistical analysis (principal component analysis, PCA,and similarity analysis) on an integrated data set, including high-resolution bulkpetrography and heavy-mineral analyses on Pleistocene sands and of 250 majorand minor modern rivers draining the southern flank of the Alps from West toEast (Garzanti et al, 2004; 2006). Prior to the onset of major Alpine glaciations,metamorphic and quartzofeldspathic detritus from the Western and Central Alpswas carried from the axial belt to the Po basin longitudinally parallel to theSouthAlpine belt by a trunk river (Vezzoli and Garzanti, 2008). This scenariorapidly changed during the marine isotope stage 22 (0.87 Ma), with the onset ofthe first major Pleistocene glaciation in the Alps (Muttoni et al, 2003). PCA andsimilarity analysis from core samples show that the longitudinal trunk river at thistime was shifted southward by the rapid southward and westward progradation oftransverse alluvial river systems fed from the Central and Southern Alps.Sediments were transported southward by braided river systems as well as glacialsediments transported by Alpine valley glaciers invaded the alluvial plain.Kew words: Detrital modes; Modern sands; Provenance; Principal ComponentsAnalysis; Similarity, Canberra Distance; palaeodrainage

The value of metabolic imaging to predict tumour response after chemoradiation in locally advanced rectal cancer

Background: We aim to investigate the possibility of using 18F-positron emission tomography/computer tomography (PET-CT) to predict the histopathologic response in locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC) treated with preoperative chemoradiation (CRT). Methods: The study included 50 patients with LARC treated with preoperative CRT. All patients were evaluated by PET-CT before and after CRT, and results were compared to histopathologic response quantified by tumour regression grade (patients with TRG 1-2 being defined as responders and patients with grade 3-5 as non-responders). Furthermore, the predictive value of metabolic imaging for pathologic complete response (ypCR) was investigated. Results: Responders and non-responders showed statistically significant differences according to Mandard's criteria for maximum standardized uptake value (SUVmax) before and after CRT with a specificity of 76,6% and a positive predictive value of 66,7%. Furthermore, SUVmax values after CRT were able to differentiate patients with ypCR with a sensitivity of 63% and a specificity of 74,4% (positive predictive value 41,2% and negative predictive value 87,9%); This rather low sensitivity and specificity determined that PET-CT was only able to distinguish 7 cases of ypCR from a total of 11 patients. Conclusions: We conclude that 18-F PET-CT performed five to seven weeks after the end of CRT can visualise functional tumour response in LARC. In contrast, metabolic imaging with 18-F PET-CT is not able to predict patients with ypCR accurately

Diagnostic accuracy of the Eurotest for dementia: a naturalistic, multicenter phase II study

BACKGROUND Available screening tests for dementia are of limited usefulness because they are influenced by the patient's culture and educational level. The Eurotest, an instrument based on the knowledge and handling of money, was designed to overcome these limitations. The objective of this study was to evaluate the diagnostic accuracy of the Eurotest in identifying dementia in customary clinical practice. METHODS A cross-sectional, multi-center, naturalistic phase II study was conducted. The Eurotest was administered to consecutive patients, older than 60 years, in general neurology clinics. The patients' condition was classified as dementia or no dementia according to DSM-IV diagnostic criteria. We calculated sensitivity (Sn), specificity (Sp) and area under the ROC curves (aROC) with 95% confidence intervals. The influence of social and educational factors on scores was evaluated with multiple linear regression analysis, and the influence of these factors on diagnostic accuracy was evaluated with logistic regression. RESULTS Sixteen neurologists recruited a total of 516 participants: 101 with dementia, 380 without dementia, and 35 who were excluded. Of the 481 participants who took the Eurotest, 38.7% were totally or functionally illiterate and 45.5% had received no formal education. Mean time needed to administer the test was 8.2+/-2.0 minutes. The best cut-off point was 20/21, with Sn = 0.91 (0.84-0.96), Sp = 0.82 (0.77-0.85), and aROC = 0.93 (0.91-0.95). Neither the scores on the Eurotest nor its diagnostic accuracy were influenced by social or educational factors. CONCLUSION This naturalistic and pragmatic study shows that the Eurotest is a rapid, simple and useful screening instrument, which is free from educational influences, and has appropriate internal and external validity.