2005 Seat Belt Usage Survey, June 12, 2006

During the spring and summer of 2005, two surveys were taken of motor vehicle drivers’ and passengers’ seat belt usage. These surveys are before and after parts of the “Click it or Ticket” education and enforcement campaign. The whole project starts with a pre-campaign survey followed by the four-week public information, education and enforcement campaign. Finally, the postcampaign survey is taken to test the effectiveness of the education and enforcement campaign. In the pre-campaign survey of seat belt usage, the usage/non-usage of 15,444 front seat occupants of cars, vans, SUVs and pickups were observed at 100 locations. In the post-campaign survey of seat belt usage, 15,731 observations were made of front seat occupants of cars, vans, SUVs and pickups. The day of the week and time of day the observations took place were selected for each site using a random number generation computer program.

Modelling and estimating models of physician labour supply and productivity

Ma thèse s’intéresse aux politiques de santé conçues pour encourager l’offre de services de santé. L’accessibilité aux services de santé est un problème majeur qui mine le système de santé de la plupart des pays industrialisés. Au Québec, le temps médian d’attente entre une recommandation du médecin généraliste et un rendez-vous avec un médecin spécialiste était de 7,3 semaines en 2012, contre 2,9 semaines en 1993, et ceci malgré l’augmentation du nombre de médecins sur cette même période. Pour les décideurs politiques observant l’augmentation du temps d’attente pour des soins de santé, il est important de comprendre la structure de l’offre de travail des médecins et comment celle-ci affecte l’offre des services de santé. Dans ce contexte, je considère deux principales politiques. En premier lieu, j’estime comment les médecins réagissent aux incitatifs monétaires et j’utilise les paramètres estimés pour examiner comment les politiques de compensation peuvent être utilisées pour déterminer l’offre de services de santé de court terme. En second lieu, j’examine comment la productivité des médecins est affectée par leur expérience, à travers le mécanisme du "learning-by-doing", et j’utilise les paramètres estimés pour trouver le nombre de médecins inexpérimentés que l’on doit recruter pour remplacer un médecin expérimenté qui va à la retraite afin de garder l’offre des services de santé constant. Ma thèse développe et applique des méthodes économique et statistique afin de mesurer la réaction des médecins face aux incitatifs monétaires et estimer leur profil de productivité (en mesurant la variation de la productivité des médecins tout le long de leur carrière) en utilisant à la fois des données de panel sur les médecins québécois, provenant d’enquêtes et de l’administration. Les données contiennent des informations sur l’offre de travail de chaque médecin, les différents types de services offerts ainsi que leurs prix. Ces données couvrent une période pendant laquelle le gouvernement du Québec a changé les prix relatifs des services de santé. J’ai utilisé une approche basée sur la modélisation pour développer et estimer un modèle structurel d’offre de travail en permettant au médecin d’être multitâche. Dans mon modèle les médecins choisissent le nombre d’heures travaillées ainsi que l’allocation de ces heures à travers les différents services offerts, de plus les prix des services leurs sont imposés par le gouvernement. Le modèle génère une équation de revenu qui dépend des heures travaillées et d’un indice de prix représentant le rendement marginal des heures travaillées lorsque celles-ci sont allouées de façon optimale à travers les différents services. L’indice de prix dépend des prix des services offerts et des paramètres de la technologie de production des services qui déterminent comment les médecins réagissent aux changements des prix relatifs. J’ai appliqué le modèle aux données de panel sur la rémunération des médecins au Québec fusionnées à celles sur l’utilisation du temps de ces mêmes médecins. J’utilise le modèle pour examiner deux dimensions de l’offre des services de santé. En premierlieu, j’analyse l’utilisation des incitatifs monétaires pour amener les médecins à modifier leur production des différents services. Bien que les études antérieures ont souvent cherché à comparer le comportement des médecins à travers les différents systèmes de compensation,il y a relativement peu d’informations sur comment les médecins réagissent aux changementsdes prix des services de santé. Des débats actuels dans les milieux de politiques de santé au Canada se sont intéressés à l’importance des effets de revenu dans la détermination de la réponse des médecins face à l’augmentation des prix des services de santé. Mon travail contribue à alimenter ce débat en identifiant et en estimant les effets de substitution et de revenu résultant des changements des prix relatifs des services de santé. En second lieu, j’analyse comment l’expérience affecte la productivité des médecins. Cela a une importante implication sur le recrutement des médecins afin de satisfaire la demande croissante due à une population vieillissante, en particulier lorsque les médecins les plus expérimentés (les plus productifs) vont à la retraite. Dans le premier essai, j’ai estimé la fonction de revenu conditionnellement aux heures travaillées, en utilisant la méthode des variables instrumentales afin de contrôler pour une éventuelle endogeneité des heures travaillées. Comme instruments j’ai utilisé les variables indicatrices des âges des médecins, le taux marginal de taxation, le rendement sur le marché boursier, le carré et le cube de ce rendement. Je montre que cela donne la borne inférieure de l’élasticité-prix direct, permettant ainsi de tester si les médecins réagissent aux incitatifs monétaires. Les résultats montrent que les bornes inférieures des élasticités-prix de l’offre de services sont significativement positives, suggérant que les médecins répondent aux incitatifs. Un changement des prix relatifs conduit les médecins à allouer plus d’heures de travail au service dont le prix a augmenté. Dans le deuxième essai, j’estime le modèle en entier, de façon inconditionnelle aux heures travaillées, en analysant les variations des heures travaillées par les médecins, le volume des services offerts et le revenu des médecins. Pour ce faire, j’ai utilisé l’estimateur de la méthode des moments simulés. Les résultats montrent que les élasticités-prix direct de substitution sont élevées et significativement positives, représentant une tendance des médecins à accroitre le volume du service dont le prix a connu la plus forte augmentation. Les élasticitésprix croisées de substitution sont également élevées mais négatives. Par ailleurs, il existe un effet de revenu associé à l’augmentation des tarifs. J’ai utilisé les paramètres estimés du modèle structurel pour simuler une hausse générale de prix des services de 32%. Les résultats montrent que les médecins devraient réduire le nombre total d’heures travaillées (élasticité moyenne de -0,02) ainsi que les heures cliniques travaillées (élasticité moyenne de -0.07). Ils devraient aussi réduire le volume de services offerts (élasticité moyenne de -0.05). Troisièmement, j’ai exploité le lien naturel existant entre le revenu d’un médecin payé à l’acte et sa productivité afin d’établir le profil de productivité des médecins. Pour ce faire, j’ai modifié la spécification du modèle pour prendre en compte la relation entre la productivité d’un médecin et son expérience. J’estime l’équation de revenu en utilisant des données de panel asymétrique et en corrigeant le caractère non-aléatoire des observations manquantes à l’aide d’un modèle de sélection. Les résultats suggèrent que le profil de productivité est une fonction croissante et concave de l’expérience. Par ailleurs, ce profil est robuste à l’utilisation de l’expérience effective (la quantité de service produit) comme variable de contrôle et aussi à la suppression d’hypothèse paramétrique. De plus, si l’expérience du médecin augmente d’une année, il augmente la production de services de 1003 dollar CAN. J’ai utilisé les paramètres estimés du modèle pour calculer le ratio de remplacement : le nombre de médecins inexpérimentés qu’il faut pour remplacer un médecin expérimenté. Ce ratio de remplacement est de 1,2.

Understanding of genetic test results for osteogenesis imperfecta by attorneys and child welfare workers in non-accidental injury cases

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-08

Cross-sectoral differences in the drivers of innovation: evidence from the Irish Community Innovation Survey

Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to analyse differences in the drivers of firm innovation performance across sectors. The literature often makes the assumption that firms in different sectors differ in their propensity to innovate but not in the drivers of innovation. The authors empirically assess whether this assumption is accurate through a series of econometric estimations and tests. Design/methodology/approach: The data used are derived from the Irish Community Innovation Survey 2004-2006. A series of multivariate probit models are estimated and the resulting coefficients are tested for parameter stability across sectors using likelihood ratio tests. Findings: The results indicate that there is a strong degree of heterogeneity in the drivers of innovation across sectors. The determinants of process, organisational, new to firm and new to market innovation varies across sectors suggesting that the pooling of sectors in an innovation production function may lead to biased inferences. Research limitations/implications: The implications of the results are that innovation policies targeted at stimulating innovation need to be tailored to particular industries. One size fits all policies would seem inappropriate given the large degree of heterogeneity observed across the drivers of innovation in different sectors. Originality/value: The value of this paper is that it provides an empirical test as to whether it is suitable to group sectoral data when estimating innovation production functions. Most papers simply include sectoral dummies, implying that only the propensity to innovate differs across sectors and that the slope of the coefficient estimates are in fact consistent across sectors.

THE PRICE SENSITIVITY OF DEMAND FOR HIGHER EDUCATION AMONG NON-TRADITIONAL STUDENTS

This dissertation examines the price sensitivity of demand for higher education among non-traditional students in the United States. Chapter 1 discusses the issues related to the demand for higher education. It presents the recent trends and reviews the literature addressing these issues. A major conclusion that emerges from this chapter is that the price sensitivity of demand for higher education appears to depend on the source of the variation in price and the characteristics of the students who face the price change. The baseline estimate for the price sensitivity of demand is that a $1,000 (in year 2000 dollars) decrease in tuition costs should result in a 4 percentage-point increase in enrollment for the traditional 18- to 24-year-old student. Chapter 2 examines the price sensitivity of demand for higher education for military spouses resulting from variation in tuition due to military-mandated moves across states. The data suggest that a $1,000 (in year 2000 dollars) decrease in the cost of 2-year schools is associated with a 1--1.5 percentage-point increase in the probability of attending college. This estimate is less than half the previous estimates due to in-state tuition price differences faced by the civilian 18- to 24-year-old population on a percentage-point basis. However, this represents a 7--10 percent increase for this population, and the magnitude of this metric is in line with previous estimates. This suggests tuition assistance can be an effective means of increasing enrollment for military spouses, but other barriers to education for this population may also need to be addressed. Chapter 3 examines the impact of a change in the tax treatment of savings set aside for higher education by those who decide to suspend their education and enter the workforce. The taxation of these funds appears to have increased the rate at which these funds are included in an employee's initial contract and the quantity of funds allocated. These results are counterintuitive if the tax preference was the primary reason for the savings plan. However, these results suggest the rationale for the savings plan was to offer targeted additional compensation to recruits with greater negotiating power. Taxation of funds previously set aside did not appear to have a statistically significant impact on their utilization. Point estimates of the price sensitivity of demand from changes in the out-of-pocket costs for higher education induced by the taxation of these funds were small and often not statistically significant. The results from this dissertation show responses to changes in the net cost of college that differ by the source of price variation and the population experiencing them. This is consistent with the previous literature. This dissertation contributes to the literature by providing estimates for the price sensitivity of demand for higher education to previously understudied non-traditional students.

Survey of past, present pollutants via sediment cores analysis in the coastal trend of Caspian Sea

This is especially well supported by down core variation Zn concentration. As Caspian Sea water intrudes into the Bay, it may be concluded that some part of pollution has sea origin. The geochemical index (Igeo) was reformulated for the area of study using chemical partitioning as well as Pb-210 results. The newly developed geochemical index is indicative of low to medium pollution intensity in the Bay of Gorgan. Thus, any additional pollution into the area of study may leave adverse effects on the aquatic ecology of Bay of Gorgan. Further, lithogenous and non-lithogenous inputs of metals into the Bay were assessed. For this purpose and through chemical partitioning, association of metals with different sedimentary phases was determined. The overall results show that about 114th total metal concentration have been added into the Bay of Gorgan through human activities.

Standing stock density estimates (kg/hectare) for fish from 1969 through 70 UNDP/FAO and 1976 EAFFRO trawl surveys in the Kenya waters of Lake Victoria

A statistical comparison of standing stock density estimates (Kg/hectare) from 26 UNDP/FAO 1%9 thru 70 and 63 EAFFRO 1976 bottom trawl surveys revealed the following; 1) Statistically significant differences between mean density values at 4 of 7 depths {4-9 to 30-39 m}. 2) The 1969 thru 70 UNDP/FAO Values were higher at the 4 levels. 3) No statistically significant menn density value differences at 3 depths (40-49 to 60-69 m), but decreased values for the 1976 EAFFRO survey at 40-49 and 50-59 m depth. It was concluded from these comparisons that no capital investment should be made into a trawler industry for fish meal production in the Kenya waters of Lake Victoria until further bottom trawl surveys can be conducted to either substantiate or disapprove these differences over the six year time span.

Dispersive estimates for the Schrödinger equation

In this document we explore the issue of $L^1\to L^\infty$ estimates for the solution operator of the linear Schr\"{o}dinger equation, \begin{align*} iu_t-\Delta u+Vu&=0 &u(x,0)=f(x)\in \mathcal S(\R^n). \end{align*} We focus particularly on the five and seven dimensional cases. We prove that the solution operator precomposed with projection onto the absolutely continuous spectrum of $H=-\Delta+V$ satisfies the following estimate $\|e^{itH} P_{ac}(H)\|_{L^1\to L^\infty} \lesssim |t|^{-\frac{n}{2}}$ under certain conditions on the potential $V$. Specifically, we prove the dispersive estimate is satisfied with optimal assumptions on smoothness, that is $V\in C^{\frac{n-3}{2}}(\R^n)$ for $n=5,7$ assuming that zero is regular, $|V(x)|\lesssim \langle x\rangle^{-\beta}$ and $|\nabla^j V(x)|\lesssim \langle x\rangle^{-\alpha}$, $1\leq j\leq \frac{n-3}{2}$ for some $\beta>\frac{3n+5}{2}$ and $\alpha>3,8$ in dimensions five and seven respectively. We also show that for the five dimensional result one only needs that $|V(x)|\lesssim \langle x\rangle^{-4-}$ in addition to the assumptions on the derivative and regularity of the potential. This more than cuts in half the required decay rate in the first chapter. Finally we consider a problem involving the non-linear Schr\"{o}dinger equation. In particular, we consider the following equation that arises in fiber optic communication systems, \begin{align*} iu_t+d(t) u_{xx}+|u|^2 u=0. \end{align*} We can reduce this to a non-linear, non-local eigenvalue equation that describes the so-called dispersion management solitons. We prove that the dispersion management solitons decay exponentially in $x$ and in the Fourier transform of $x$.

Rare earth elements and neodymium isotopes in world river sediments revisited

Over the past decades, rare earth elements (REE) and their radioactive isotopes have received tremendous attention in sedimentary geochemistry, as tracers for the geological history of the continental crust and provenance studies. In this study, we report on elemental concentrations and neodymium (Nd) isotopic compositions for a large number of sediments collected near the mouth of rivers worldwide, including some of the world’s major rivers. Sediments were leached for removal of non-detrital components, and both clay and silt fractions were retained for separate geochemical analyses. Our aim was to re-examine, at the scale of a large systematic survey, whether or not REE and Nd isotopes could be fractionated during Earth surface processes. Our results confirmed earlier assumptions that river sediments do not generally exhibit any significant grain-size dependent Nd isotopic variability. Most sediments from rivers draining old cratonic areas, sedimentary systems and volcanic provinces displayed similar Nd isotopic signatures in both clay and silt fractions, with ΔεNd (clay-silt) < |1.| A subtle decoupling of Nd isotopes between clays and silts was identified however in a few major river systems (e.g. Nile, Mississippi, Fraser), with clays being systematically shifted towards more radiogenic values. This observation suggests that preferential weathering of volcanic and/or sedimentary rocks relative to more resistant lithologies may occur in river basins, possibly leading locally to Nd isotopic decoupling between different size fractions. Except for volcanogenic sediments, silt fractions generally displayed homogeneous REE concentrations, exhibiting relatively flat shale-normalized patterns. However, clay fractions were almost systematically characterized by a progressive enrichment from the heavy to the light REE and a positive europium (Eu) anomaly. In agreement with results from previous soil investigations, the observed REE fractionation between clays and silts is probably best explained by preferential alteration of feldspars and/or accessory mineral phases. Importantly, this finding clearly indicates that silicate weathering can lead to decoupling of REE between different grain-size fractions, with implications for sediment provenance studies. Finally, we propose a set of values for a World River Average Clay (WRAC) and Average Silt (WRAS), which provide new estimates for the average composition of the weathered and eroded upper continental crust, respectively, and could be used for future comparison purposes.

Final report of the fisheries catch assessment survey in the Ugandan waters of Lake Victoria for the May 2014 survey

This report presents findings of the CAS conducted in the Ugandan waters of Lake Victoria in December 2015. The results of the previous thirteen harmonized CASs conducted since July 2005 (July, August, September and November 2005; in March, August and December 2006; in March and August 2007; in February and December 2008; March 2010; May 2011 and May 2014) are included to show the emerging trends. The report also presents annual catch estimates for the Ugandan part of the lake from 2005 to 2015. This information together with other fish stock assessment and socio-economic monitoring survey data can now be utilized in the planning and management of the fisheries resources of Lake Victoria. The 2014 CAS results were very vital in the development of the Lake Victoria Fisheries Management Plan 2014.

Final report of the fisheries catch assessment survey conducted in December 2015 on the Ugandan waters of Lake Victoria

This CAS report provides estimates of the quantities of fish landed in the riparian districts sharing the Ugandan waters of Lake Victoria; the monetary value of the fish catches; the contribution of different fish species to the catches; and the trends in fish catch rates, and the monthly catches for the sampled month since the beginning of harmonized CAS activities in July 2005 to December 2015. The report also compares the annual catch and gross beach value of catch landings in 2005, 2006, 2007, 2010, 2014 and 2015. A total of 15 CASs have been undertaken in the Uganda sector of the lake with data gaps in 2009, 2012 and 2013 due to financial constraints. The annual catch estimates for the years 2010, 2011, 2014 and 2015 were based on one sampling covering the rainy season and may not capture changes that could occur in dry season. There is need to include dry season sampling in future surveys.

Survey on gill parasites of sturgeon fishes (Acipenseridae) in southern part of Caspian Sea with emphasis on Nitzschia sturionis Ablidgaard, 1794

Sturgeons are important because of producing the expensive caviar. With regard to decreasing of natural stocks of these fishes, cultured sturgeons farms are expanding, so infectious or non-infectious agents can cause problems in this industry. One of the most important infectious diseases, are parasitic diseases, like gill parasites. In this study from March 2007 to June 2008, gills of 122 sturgeons of south west of Caspian Sea, 44 samples of juveniles from freshwater farms and 25 samples of cultured fishes in freshwater were collected and examined. Parasites were separated and determination of species and prevalence of them were done. Nitzschia sturionis and Diclybothrium armatum (monogenea) with general prevalence 8.7% in Acipenser persicus and 25.6% in Acipenser stellatus from sea sturgeons and Trichodina (sp.1, sp.2) and Ichthyophthirius multifiliis from freshwater sturgeons, were separated. Statistical analysis was done according to species, sex, length and weight of fishes. Pathology, morphometric and morphological characters of Nitzschia sturionis were also studied. At the end, we have suggested ways for health management of farms for prevention of parasites entry.

Sources of Information about Dietary Fibre: A Cross-Country Survey

Problem statement: Dietary fibre (DF) has been recognized as a major determinant for improvement of health. Hence the means of information through which people become aware of its benefits are crucial. Research questions: Where do you usually find information about dietary fibre? What means of communication do you consider the most appropriate to encourage the consumption of dietary fibre? Purpose of the study: This work aimed at studying the sources of information about dietary fibre, as a means to educate people about aspects related to healthy eating. Factors such as gender, level of education, living environment or country were evaluated as to their effect on the selection of sources and preferences.   Research Methods: Descriptive cross-sectional study by means of a questionnaire, applied to a non-probabilistic sample of 6010 participants from 10 countries in different continents (Europe, Africa and America), answered after informed consent by all participants. For the analysis were used several descriptive statistics tools, crosstabs and chi square test to assess the relations between some of the variables under study. Findings: Mostly the information about DF comes from the internet, but television is recognized as suitable. Differences were found between genders, levels of education, living environments and countries. The internet (preferred source), got highest scores for Hungary, urban areas, university education and female gender. The radio (least scored source) was preferred in Egypt, for men and with lower education (primary school). Conclusions: People get information through the internet due to easy access. However, it is to some extent a risk given the impossibility to control de information made public on the internet. The role of health centres and hospitals as well as schools should definitely be increased, as a responsible way to ensure correct information.

The organization, form and function of intermediate care services and systems in England: results from a national survey

This paper reports the results of a postal survey of intermediate care co-ordinators (ICCs) on the organization and delivery of intermediate care services for older people in England, conducted between November 2003 and May 2004. Questionnaires, which covered a range of issues with a variety of quantitative, ‘tick-box’ and open-ended questions, were returned by 106 respondents, representing just over 35% of primary care trusts (PCTs). We discuss the role of ICCs, the integration of local systems of intermediate care provision, and the form, function and model of delivery of services described by respondents. Using descriptive and statistical analysis of the responses, we highlight in particular the relationship between provision of admission avoidance and supported discharge, the availability of 24-hour care, and the locations in which care is provided, and relate our findings to the emerging evidence base for intermediate care, guidance on implementation from central government, and debate in the literature. Whilst the expansion and integration of intermediate care appear to be continuing apace, much provision seems concentrated in supported discharge services rather than acute admission avoidance, and particularly in residential forms of post-acute intermediate care. Supported discharge services tend to be found in residential settings, while admission avoidance provision tends to be non-residential in nature. Twenty-four hour care in non-residential settings is not available in several responding PCTs. These findings raise questions about the relationship between the implementation of intermediate care and the evidence for and aims of the policy as part of NHS modernization, and the extent to which intermediate care represents a genuinely novel approach to the care and rehabilitation of older people.