A new modelling framework for statistical cumulus dynamics

We propose a new modelling framework suitable for the description of atmospheric convective systems as a collection of distinct plumes. The literature contains many examples of models for collections of plumes in which strong simplifying assumptions are made, a diagnostic dependence of convection on the large-scale environment and the limit of many plumes often being imposed from the outset. Some recent studies have sought to remove one or the other of those assumptions. The proposed framework removes both, and is explicitly time-dependent and stochastic in its basic character. The statistical dynamics of the plume collection are defined through simple probabilistic rules applied at the level of individual plumes, and van Kampen's system size expansion is then used to construct the macroscopic limit of the microscopic model. Through suitable choices of the microscopic rules, the model is shown to encompass previous studies in the appropriate limits, and to allow their natural extensions beyond those limits.

The future of lean construction: a brave new world

Lean construction is considered from a human resource management (HRM) perspective. It is contended that the UK construction sector is characterised by an institutionalised regressive approach to HRM. In the face of rapidly declining recruitment rates for built environment courses, the dominant HRM philosophy of utilitarian instrumentalism does little to attract the intelligent and creative young people that the industry so badly needs. Given this broader context, there is a danger that an uncritical acceptance of lean construction will exacerbate the industry's reputation for unrewarding jobs. Construction academics have strangely ignored the extensive literature that equates lean production to a HRM regime of control, exploitation and surveillance. The emphasis of lean thinking on eliminating waste and improving efficiency makes it easy to absorb into the best practice agenda because it conforms to the existing dominant way of thinking. 'Best practice' is seemingly judged by the extent to which it serves the interests of the industry's technocratic elite. Hence it acts as a conservative force in favour of maintaining the status quo. In this respect, lean construction is the latest manifestation of a long established trend. In common with countless other improvement initiatives, the rhetoric is heavy in the machine metaphor whilst exhorting others to be more efficient. If current trends in lean construction are extrapolated into the future the ultimate destination may be uncomfortably close to Aldous Huxley's apocalyptic vision of a Brave New World. In the face of these trends, the lean construction research community pleads neutrality whilst confining its attention to the rational high ground. The future of lean construction is not yet predetermined. Many choices remain to be made. The challenge for the research community is to improve practice whilst avoiding the dehumanising tendencies of high utilitarianism.

Livestock infectious disease and climate change: a review of selected literature

It is indisputable that climate is an important factor in many livestock diseases. Nevertheless, our knowledge of the impact of climate change on livestock infectious diseases is much less certain.Therefore, the aim of the article is to conduct a systematic review of the literature on the topic utilizing available retrospective data and information. Across a corpus of 175 formal publications,limited empirical evidence was offered to underpin many of the main arguments. The literature reviewed was highly polarized and often inconsistent regarding what the future may hold. Historical explorations were rare. However, identifying past drivers to livestock disease may not fully capture the extent that new and unknown drivers will influence future change. As such, our current predictive capacity is low. We offer a number of recommendations to strengthen this capacity in the coming years. We conclude that our current approach to research on the topic is limiting and unlikely to yield sufficient, actionable evidence to inform future praxis. Therefore, we argue for the creation of a reflexive, knowledge-based system, underpinned by a collective intelligence framework to support the drawing of inferences across the literature.

Commercial real estate return distributions: a review of literature and empirical evidence

This paper review the literature on the distribution of commercial real estate returns. There is growing evidence that the assumption of normality in returns is not safe. Distributions are found to be peaked, fat-tailed and, tentatively, skewed. There is some evidence of compound distributions and non-linearity. Public traded real estate assets (such as property company or REIT shares) behave in a fashion more similar to other common stocks. However, as in equity markets, it would be unwise to assume normality uncritically. Empirical evidence for UK real estate markets is obtained by applying distribution fitting routines to IPD Monthly Index data for the aggregate index and selected sub-sectors. It is clear that normality is rejected in most cases. It is often argued that observed differences in real estate returns are a measurement issue resulting from appraiser behaviour. However, unsmoothing the series does not assist in modelling returns. A large proportion of returns are close to zero. This would be characteristic of a thinly-traded market where new information arrives infrequently. Analysis of quarterly data suggests that, over longer trading periods, return distributions may conform more closely to those found in other asset markets. These results have implications for the formulation and implementation of a multi-asset portfolio allocation strategy.

Regional implications of macro-economic, sectoral and company changes in the development of technopoles in Britain and France

This paper reports the proceedings of a conference held at Reading University in 1993 which addressed the issues of new technological developments at the regional and sub-regional levels in Britain and France. These new technological clusters - the `Technopoles' - are investigated in a series of papers in both English and French which examines their spatial, sectoral and economic aspects to determine what lessons can be learned from their development and what their future economic significance is likely to be. Two recurring themes are of particular significance in the papers - the link between R& D and regional development, and the different forms which innovation assumes within the various technopoles under scrutiny.

Manipulation and articulation: population statistics in 19th century France and England

The article presents an essay that deals with the study conducted by Donald MacKenzie and the case studies comparing the use of population statistics in France and Great Britain in the periods of 1825 and 1885. It analyzes Donald MacKenzie's study on the ways professional and political commitments informed the choice of statistical indexes in the British statistical community. Furthermore, the author is interested in knowing how this influenced the development of mathematical statistics in Great Britain. The author concludes that the differences in the debates over population statistics are accounted to the differences in the social and epistemological logics of population statistics.

‘The Apostolate of the Pen’: Mgr De Ségur and the mobilization of Catholic opinion in Second Empire France

This article contends that the papacy and ultramontane Catholicism played a pivotal role in the democratization of culture in Second Empire France. Drawing upon recent scholarship, which argues that religion played an important role in the constitution of mass democracies in modern Europe, this article revisits the pamphlet campaign led by Mgr Gaston de Ségur at the height of the Italian question in February 1860. Ségur made the most of the freedom of expression enjoyed by the Catholic Church in France in an attempt to direct Catholic opinion, and place pressure on the French government over its diplomatic relations with the pope. New archive material, notably Ségur’s correspondence with the leading Catholic journalist of the time, Louis Veuillot, sheds further light on Rome’s interventions in French culture and politics and its consequences. The article demonstrates that one of the most important, if unintended, results of the ultramontane campaign was to trigger reforms to the cultural sphere, and the granting of freedoms to their political enemies: the Republicans and freethinkers.

'Response and Responsibility: Theories of the Implied Reader in Children's Literature Criticism'

Reader Response Theory remains popular within Children's Literature Criticism. It seems to offer a sensible resolution to the question of whether meaning derives from text or reader. Through a close reading of one example of this criticism, I suggest that its dualisms are constantly collapsing into appeals to singular authority. at various stages the text or the reader is wholly responsible for meaning. I further suggest that the criticism bypasses the question of interpretation through claiming knowledge of a child reader whose opinions and reactions can be unproblematically accessed. We do not have to worry about reading texts, because we can, apparently, know the child's response to them with certainty. Anything other than this claim to certainty is taken to be a failure of responsibility, a wallowing in the subjective, obscure and perverse. My intention is to reinstate reading as the responsibility of criticism.

Adapting Jules Verne for the baby-boom generation: Hachette and the Bibliothèque Verte, c.1956-1966

How do changing notions of children’s reading practices alter or even create classic texts? This article looks at how the nineteenth-century author Jules Verne (1828-1905) was modernised by Hachette for their Bibliothèque Verte children’s collection in the 1950s and 60s. Using the methodology of adaptation studies, the article reads the abridged texts in the context of the concerns that emerged in postwar France about what children were reading. It examines how these concerns shaped editorial policy, and the transformations that Verne’s texts underwent before they were considered suitable for the children of the baby-boom generation. It asks whether these adapted versions damaged Verne’s reputation, as many literary scholars have suggested, or if the process of dividing his readership into children and adults actually helped to reinforce the new idea of his texts as complex and multilayered. In so doing, this article provides new insights into the impact of postwar reforms on children’s publishing and explores the complex interplay between abridgment, censorship, children’s literature and the adult canon.

Nuclear Mentalities? Strategies and Beliefs in Britain, France and the FRG

This is volume II of my two-volume study of the nuclear strategies/strategy preferences of Britain, France and West Germany in the Cold War. It shows that the great variable is the mentalities, culture, and particular interpretations of particular historical experiences of these three countries. These mental frameworks are reconstructed, in the tradition of the French Annales/Mentalite schools (that in turn is rooted in anthropology) by looking at a very large nunber of public texts in the context of the public discourse about nuclear strategy in each country.

NATO, Britain, France and the FRG: Nuclear Strategies and Forces for Europe, 1949-2000

This is vol. I of my two-volume study of the nuclear strategies/strategy preferences of NATO collectively, and individually of Britain, France, and West Germany in the Cold War. It shows that NATO strategy was a fragile compromise, and that these three countries, all within range of Soviet medium/intermediate range nuclear missiles and thus with less geostrategic difference than in previous military threat contexts, had wildly divergent strategies/preferences which cannot be explained merely by geography. It raises the question of what made them so different, addressed in Volume II "Nuclear Mentalities" (q.v.)

The impact of information and communications technology on commercial real estate in the new economy

Purpose – This paper seeks to critically review the conceptual frameworks that have been developed for assessing the impact of information and communications technology (ICT) on real estate. Design/methodology/approach – The research is based on a critical review of existing literature and draws from examples of previous empirical research in the field. Findings – The paper suggests that a “socio-technical framework” is more appropriate to examine ICT impact in real estate than other “deterministic” frameworks. Therefore, ICT is an important part of the new economy, but must be seen in the context of a number of other social and economic factors. Research limitations/implications – The research is based on a qualitative assessment of existing frameworks, and by using examples from commercial real estate, assesses the extent to which a “socio-technical” framework can aid understanding of ICT impact. Practical implications – The paper is important in highlighting a number of the main issues in conceptualising ICT impact in real estate and also critically examines the emergence of a new economy in the information society within the general context of real estate. The paper also highlights research gaps in the field. Originality/value – The paper deconstructs the myths of the “death of real estate” and “productivity increase means jobs loss”, in relation to office real estate. Finally, it examines some of the ways in which ICT is impacting on real estate and suggests the most important components for a future research agenda in the field of ICT and real estate impact, and will be of value to property investors, facilities managers, developers, financiers, and others.