Can the frequency of blocking be described by a red noise process?

The frequency of persistent atmospheric blocking events in the 40-yr ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-40) is compared with the blocking frequency produced by a simple first-order Markov model designed to predict the time evolution of a blocking index [defined by the meridional contrast of potential temperature on the 2-PVU surface (1 PVU ≡ 1 × 10−6 K m2 kg−1 s−1)]. With the observed spatial coherence built into the model, it is able to reproduce the main regions of blocking occurrence and the frequencies of sector blocking very well. This underlines the importance of the climatological background flow in determining the locations of high blocking occurrence as being the regions where the mean midlatitude meridional potential vorticity (PV) gradient is weak. However, when only persistent blocking episodes are considered, the model is unable to simulate the observed frequencies. It is proposed that this persistence beyond that given by a red noise model is due to the self-sustaining nature of the blocking phenomenon.

Proliferative and anti-proliferative effects of titanium- and iron-based metallocene anti-cancer drugs

In previous work we have found that Cp2TiCl2 and its corresponding deriv. of tamoxifen, Titanocene tamoxifen, show an unexpected proliferative effect on hormone dependent breast cancer cells MCF-7. In order to check if this behavior is a general trend for titanocene derivs. we have tested two other titanocene derivs., Titanocene Y and Titanocene K, on this cell line. Interestingly, these two titanocene complexes behave in a totally different manner. Titanocene K is highly proliferative on MCF-7 cells even at low concns. (0.5 .mu.M), thus behave almost similarly to Cp2TiCl2. This proliferative effect is also obsd. in the presence of bovine serum albumin (BSA). In contrast, Titanocene Y alone has almost no effect on MCF-7 at a concn. of 10 .mu.M, but exhibits a significant dose dependent cytotoxic effect of up to 50% when incubated with BSA (20-50 .mu.g/mL). This confirms the crucial role played by the binding to serum proteins in the expression of the in vivo, cytotoxicity of the titanocene complexes. From the hydridolithiation reaction of 6-p-anisylfulvene with LiBEt3H followed by transmetallation with iron dichloride [bis-[(p-methoxy-benzyl)cyclopentadienyl]iron(II)] (Ferrocene Y) was synthesized. This complex, which was characterized by single crystal X-ray diffraction, contains the robust ferrocenyl unit instead of Ti assocd. with easily leaving groups such as chlorine and shows only a modest cytotoxicity against MCF-7 or MDA-MB-231 cells.

Bioorganometallic fulvene-derived titanocene anti-cancer drugs

A review. 6-Substituted fulvenes are interesting and easily accessible starting materials for the synthesis of novel substituted titanocenes via reductive dimerization, carbolithiation or hydridolithiation reactions, which are followed by a transmetallation reaction with titanium tetrachloride in the latter two cases. Depending on the substitution pattern, these titanocenes prove to be bioorganometallic anticancer drugs, which have significant potential against advanced or metastatic renal-cell cancer. Patients bearing these stages of kidney cancer have a poor prognosis so far and therefore real progress in the area of metal-based anticancer drugs may come from this simple and effective synthetic approach. This tutorial review provides an insight into the synthesis of fulvene-derived titanocenes and their activity in preclin. expts.

How well does the ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System predict blocking?

Forecasting atmospheric blocking is one of the main problems facing medium-range weather forecasters in the extratropics. The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) provides an excellent basis for medium-range forecasting as it provides a number of different possible realizations of the meteorological future. This ensemble of forecasts attempts to account for uncertainties in both the initial conditions and the model formulation. Since 18 July 2000, routine output from the EPS has included the field of potential temperature on the potential vorticity (PV) D 2 PV units (PVU) surface, the dynamical tropopause. This has enabled the objective identification of blocking using an index based on the reversal of the meridional potential-temperature gradient. A year of EPS probability forecasts of Euro-Atlantic and Pacific blocking have been produced and are assessed in this paper, concentrating on the Euro-Atlantic sector. Standard verification techniques such as Brier scores, Relative Operating Characteristic (ROC) curves and reliability diagrams are used. It is shown that Euro-Atlantic sector-blocking forecasts are skilful relative to climatology out to 10 days, and are more skilful than the deterministic control forecast at all lead times. The EPS is also more skilful than a probabilistic version of this deterministic forecast, though the difference is smaller. In addition, it is shown that the onset of a sector-blocking episode is less well predicted than its decay. As the lead time increases, the probability forecasts tend towards a model climatology with slightly less blocking than is seen in the real atmosphere. This small under-forecasting bias in the blocking forecasts is possibly related to a westerly bias in the ECMWF model. Copyright © 2003 Royal Meteorological Society

A new perspective on blocking

It is argued that the essential aspect of atmospheric blocking may be seen in the wave breaking of potential temperature (θ) on a potential vorticity (PV) surface, which may be identified with the tropopause, and the consequent reversal of the usual meridional temperature gradient of θ. A new dynamical blocking index is constructed using a meridional θ difference on a PV surface. Unlike in previous studies, the central blocking latitude about which this difference is constructed is allowed to vary with longitude. At each longitude it is determined by the latitude at which the climatological high-pass transient eddy kinetic energy is a maximum. Based on the blocking index, at each longitude local instantaneous blocking, large-scale blocking, and blocking episodes are defined. For longitudinal sectors, sector blocking and sector blocking episodes are also defined. The 5-yr annual climatologies of the three longitudinally defined blocking event frequencies and the seasonal climatologies of blocking episode frequency are shown. The climatologies all pick out the eastern North Atlantic–Europe and eastern North Pacific–western North America regions. There is evidence that Pacific blocking shifts into the western central Pacific in the summer. Sector blocking episodes of 4 days or more are shown to exhibit different persistence characteristics to shorter events, showing that blocking is not just the long timescale tail end of a distribution. The PV–θ index results for the annual average location of Pacific blocking agree with synoptic studies but disagree with modern quantitative height field–based studies. It is considered that the index used here is to be preferred anyway because of its dynamical basis. However, the longitudinal discrepancy is found to be associated with the use in the height field index studies of a central blocking latitude that is independent of longitude. In particular, the use in the North Pacific of a latitude that is suitable for the eastern North Atlantic leads to spurious categorization of blocking there. Furthermore, the PV–θ index is better able to detect Ω blocking than conventional height field indices.

High performance blocking filters for the region 1µm to 20µm

A set of filters based on the sequence of semiconductor edges is described which offers continuity of short-wave infrared blocking. The rejection throughout the stop region is greater than 103 for each filter and the transmission better than 70% through one octave with a square cutoff. The cutoff points are located at intervals of about two-thirds of an octave. Filters at 2.6 ,µm, 5.5 µm, and 12 µm which use a low-passing multilayer in combination with a semiconductor absorption edge are described in detail. The design of multilayers for optimum performance is discussed by analogy with the synthesis of electric circuit filters.

Associations between stratospheric variability and tropospheric blocking

There is widely believed to be a link between stratospheric flow variability and stationary, persistent “blocking” weather systems, but the precise nature of this link has proved elusive. Using data from the ERA-40 Reanalysis and an atmospheric general circulation model (GCM) with a well-resolved stratosphere (HadGAM), it is shown that there are in fact several different highly significant associations, with blocking in different regions being related to different patterns of stratospheric variability. This is true in both hemispheres and in both data sets. The associations in HadGAM are shown to be very similar to those in ERA-40, although the model has a tendency to underestimate both European blocking and the wave number 2 stratospheric variability to which this is related. Although the focus is on stratospheric variability in general, several of the blocking links are seen to occur in association with the major stratospheric sudden warmings. In general, the direction of influence appears to be upward, as blocking anomalies are shown to modify the planetary stationary waves, leading to an upward propagation of wave activity into the stratosphere. However, significant correlations are also apparent with the zonal mean flow in the stratosphere leading the occurrence of blocking at high latitudes. Finally, the underestimation of blocking is an enduring problem in GCMs, and an example has recently been given in which improving the resolution of the stratosphere improved the representation of blocking. Here, however, another example is given, in which increasing the stratospheric resolution unfortunately does not lead to an improvement in blocking.

Statistical methods for examining genetic influences of resistance to anti-epileptic drugs

It is generally accepted that genetics may be an important factor in explaining the variation between patients’ responses to certain drugs. However, identification and confirmation of the responsible genetic variants is proving to be a challenge in many cases. A number of difficulties that maybe encountered in pursuit of these variants, such as non-replication of a true effect, population structure and selection bias, can be mitigated or at least reduced by appropriate statistical methodology. Another major statistical challenge facing pharmacogenetics studies is trying to detect possibly small polygenic effects using large volumes of genetic data, while controlling the number of false positive signals. Here we review statistical design and analysis options available for investigations of genetic resistance to anti-epileptic drugs.

Sequential genome-wide association studies for monitoring adverse events in the clinical evaluation of new drugs

Pharmacovigilance, the monitoring of adverse events (AEs), is an integral part in the clinical evaluation of a new drug. Until recently, attempts to relate the incidence of AEs to putative causes have been restricted to the evaluation of simple demographic and environmental factors. The advent of large-scale genotyping, however, provides an opportunity to look for associations between AEs and genetic markers, such as single nucleotides polymorphisms (SNPs). It is envisaged that a very large number of SNPs, possibly over 500 000, will be used in pharmacovigilance in an attempt to identify any genetic difference between patients who have experienced an AE and those who have not. We propose a sequential genome-wide association test for analysing AEs as they arise, allowing evidence-based decision-making at the earliest opportunity. This gives us the capability of quickly establishing whether there is a group of patients at high-risk of an AE based upon their DNA. Our method provides a valid test which takes account of linkage disequilibrium and allows for the sequential nature of the procedure. The method is more powerful than using a correction, such as idák, that assumes that the tests are independent. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Fitting models for the joint action of two drugs using SAS(R)

Combinations of drugs are increasingly being used for a wide variety of diseases and conditions. A pre-clinical study may allow the investigation of the response at a large number of dose combinations. In determining the response to a drug combination, interest may lie in seeking evidence of synergism, in which the joint action is greater than the actions of the individual drugs, or of antagonism, in which it is less. Two well-known response surface models representing no interaction are Loewe additivity and Bliss independence, and Loewe or Bliss synergism or antagonism is defined relative to these. We illustrate an approach to fitting these models for the case in which the marginal single drug dose-response relationships are represented by four-parameter logistic curves with common upper and lower limits, and where the response variable is normally distributed with a common variance about the dose-response curve. When the dose-response curves are not parallel, the relative potency of the two drugs varies according to the magnitude of the desired effect and the models for Loewe additivity and synergism/antagonism cannot be explicitly expressed. We present an iterative approach to fitting these models without the assumption of parallel dose-response curves. A goodness-of-fit test based on residuals is also described. Implementation using the SAS NLIN procedure is illustrated using data from a pre-clinical study. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

The use of ultraviolet-blocking films in insect pest management in the UK; effects on naturally occurring arthropod pest and natural enemy populations in a protected cucumber crop

Studies in polytunnels were conducted to investigate the effects of ultraviolet (UV)-blocking films on naturally occurring insect pests and their arthropod natural enemies on a cucumber crop. Within tunnels clad with Antibotrytis (blocks light < 400 nm) and UVI/EVA (UV transmitting), 5.8 and 23.4 times more aphids, respectively, were recorded on traps compared with those on traps within tunnels clad with XL 385 (blocks light < 385 nm). When all plants within the UVI/EVA tunnels had become heavily infested with aphids, half of the plants in XL 385 tunnels were uninfested. More Coleoptera and thrips (approximately two times) were recorded under the UVI/EVA film than under the UV-blocking films, but for other arthropod pests (e. g. whitefly, leafhoppers), clear conclusions could not be drawn as low numbers were recorded. Substantial numbers of chalcid parasitoids and syrphids were found under the UV-blocking films, but further research is needed to evaluate fully the effect of such films on biological control of aphids. Higher syrphid numbers and more aphid mummies were recorded under the UVI/EVA film, probably because of the higher numbers of aphids present in tunnels clad with this film. The potential that UV-blocking films have as an effective component of commercial Integrated Pest Management (IPM) systems, for protected horticultural crops, is discussed.