Especulative (sic) attack on exchange rate target zone regime : the uncertainty case

We present a continuous time target zone model of speculative attacks. Contrary to most of the literature that considers the certainty case, i.e., agents know for sure the Central Bank behavior in the future, we build uncertainty into the madel in two different ways. First, we consider the case in whicb the leveI of reserves at which the central bank lets the regime collapse is uncertain. Alternatively, we ana1ize the case in which, with some probability, the government may cbange its policy reducing the initially positive trend in domestic credito In both cases, contrary to the case of a fixed exchange rate regime, speculators face a cost of launching a tentative attack that may not succeed. Such cost induces a delay and may even prevent its occurrence. At the time of the tentative attack, the exchange rate moves either discretely up, if the attack succeeds, or down, if it fails. The remlts are consistent with the fact that, typically, an attack involves substantial profits and losses for the speculators. In particular, if agents believed that the government will control fiscal imbalances in the future, or alternatively, if they believe the trend in domestic credit to be temporary, the attack is postponed even in the presence of a signal of an imminent collapse. Finally, we aIso show that the timing of a speculative attack increases with the width of the target zone.

Note zone

Imagem componente do jogo “Musikinésia (http://www.loa.sead.ufscar.br/musikinesia.php)” desenvolvido pela equipe do Laboratório de Objetos de Aprendizagem da Universidade Federal de São Carlos (LOA/UFSCar).

Contamination of port zone sediments by metals from Large Marine Ecosystems of Brazil

Sediment contamination by metals poses risks to coastal ecosystems and is considered to be problematic to dredging operations. In Brazil, there are differences in sedimentology along the Large Marine Ecosystems in relation to the metal distributions. We aimed to assess the extent of Al, Fe, Hg, Cd, Cr, Cu, Ni, Pb and Zn contamination in sediments from port zones in northeast (Mucuripe and Pecem) and southeast (Santos) Brazil through geochemical analyses and sediment quality ratings. The metal concentrations found in these port zones were higher than those observed in the continental shelf or the background values in both regions. In the northeast, metals were associated with carbonate, while in Santos, they were associated with mud. Geochemical analyses showed enrichments in Hg, Cd, Cu, Ni and Zn, and a simple application of international sediment quality guidelines failed to predict their impacts, whereas the use of site-specific values that were derived by geochemical and ecotoxicological approaches seemed to be more appropriate in the management of the dredged sediments. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Nesting architecture and population structure of the fungus-growing ant Cyphomyrmex transversus (Formicidae: Myrmicinae: Attini) in the Brazilian coastal zone of Ilheus, Bahia

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Determination of fluoroacetate and fluoride in blood serum by capillary zone electrophoresis using capacitively coupled contactless conductivity detection

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Boundary identification criteria and geometry analysis of Al 7050 stretch zone from elevation profiles

This article describes the development of a method for analysis of the shape of the stretch zone surface based on parallax measurement theory and using digital image processing techniques. Accurate criteria for the definition of the boundaries of the stretch zone are established from profiles of fracture surfaces obtained from crack tip opening displacement tests on Al-7050 alloy samples. The elevation profiles behavior analysis is based on stretch zone width and height parameters. It is concluded that the geometry of the stretch zone profiles under plane strain conditions can be described by a semi-parabolic relationship. (C) Elsevier B.V., 1999. All rights reserved.

Fractal analysis along stretch zone for an aluminum alloy

The topography of fracture surface along stretch zone front for Al7050 is analyzed about its fractal behavior and compared against local distributions of microstructural parameters and stretch zone height, considered here as a toughness parameter. Major influence on microscale was presented by precipitation density. Larger grains should be significant on topographic behavior at macroscale, besides the local toughness measured along stretch zone. The large scattering of fractal measurements along specimen width should limit the validity of models relating fractal values and fracture toughness. It is proposed that models based on mixed fractals must also consider some dispersion parameter instead of mean fractal measurements due to the overall complexity of fracture relief formation. It is suggested that sampling for fractal measurement must be restricted to plane strain region along fracture surface, due to smaller scattering in this region. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Fractal behavior throughout stretch zone of 15-5PH steel under elastic-plastic loading conditions

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

MRT letter: Extended depth from focus reconstruction method for stretch zone measurement in 15-5PH steel

The stretch zone width (SZW) data for 15-5PH steel CTOD specimens fractured at -150 degrees C to + 23 degrees C temperature were measured based on focused images and 3D maps obtained by extended depth-of-field reconstruction from light microscopy (LM) image stacks. This LM-based method, with a larger lateral resolution, seems to be as effective for quantitative analysis of SZW as scanning electron microscopy (SEM) or confocal scanning laser microscopy (CSLM), permitting to clearly identify stretch zone boundaries. Despite the worst sharpness of focused images, a robust linear correlation was established to fracture toughness (KC) and SZW data for the 15-5PH steel tested specimens, measured at their center region. The method is an alternative to evaluate the boundaries of stretched zones, at a lower cost of implementation and training, since topographic data from elevation maps can be associated with reconstructed image, which summarizes the original contrast and brightness information. Finally, the extended depth-of-field method is presented here as a valuable tool for failure analysis, as a cheaper alternative to investigate rough surfaces or fracture, compared to scanning electron or confocal light microscopes. Microsc. Res. Tech. 75:11551158, 2012. (C) 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Changes in abiotic characteristics of water in the Paranapanema River and three lateral lagoons at mouth zone of the Jurumirim Reservoir during the flood period, São Paulo, Brazil

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Plankton richness and abundance in several different hydrological situations in lakes lateral to a river: a case study in the mouth zone of a tributary into a tropical reservoir.

A descriptive analysis of the responses of plankton from lakes lateral to a river in its mouth zone into a tropical reservoir to water level variations is presented. Three situations were reported: 1) a comparison of species richness and diversity and of algae population abundance in prolonged drought and in periods of connection of lakes to the river, 2) the spatial distribution of abundance and richness of Rotifera species in four isolated water bodies formed by fragmentation of a lateral lake during a period of prolonged drought and in the same areas during a period of integrity as an ecosystem, 3) the variability of total zooplankton and Cladocera densities at the end of the isolation period of a lateral lake and after the recovery of connection with the river and in a year of continuous connection with the lotic ecosystem. Various idiosyncrasies were observed in connected lateral lakes, like the surface hydrologic connectivity, a primary factor in species richness modifcations and a secondary controlling factor of plankton abundance. Underground hydrologic connectivity, through the river[forward arrow] lake water fux during the high-water period and lake [forward arrow] river during drought period, appears to have an important role in richness and abundance variations of planktonic populations in the lake isolated from the river.

From forests to cattail: how does the riparian zone influence stream fish?

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Influence of the riparian zone phytophysiognomies on the longitudinal distribution of fishes: evidence from a Brazilian savanna stream

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)