886 resultados para Multiple state models


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The research was developed to evaluate the use of different types of roofing materials regularly used in poultry houses. Measurements of thermal comfort were made through the use of techniques such as the Black Globe and Humidity Index (BGHI), the Thermal Heat Load (THL) and Enthalpy (H). Conducted in the State University of Goiás, during the months of April and May, 2011, the experiment was composed of five different treatments: AC - Asbestos cement tiles, BA -Bamboo tiles, BAP - Bamboo tiles painted in white, FB -Vegetable fiber tiles and bitumen, FBP -Vegetable fiber tiles and bitumen painted in white. The experiment consisted in 15 repetitions, which were considered the different days of measurements taken. Throughout the studied period, the time of the day considered the least comfortable was the one observed at 2:00pm, and the coverage of vegetable fiber and bitumen showed the highest value of BGHI (84.1) when compared to other types of coverage, characterizing a situation of lower thermal comfort, and no difference was found for THL and H on treatments in the studied region.

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The state of Ceará, Brazil, has 75% of its area covered by Brazilian semiarid, with its peculiar features. In this state, the dams are constituted in water structure of strategic importance, ensuring, both in time and space, the development and supply of water to population. However, construction of reservoirs results in various impacts that should be carefully observed when deciding on their implementation. One of the impacts identified as negative is the increased evaporation, which constitutes a major component of water balance in reservoirs, especially in arid regions. Several methods for estimating evaporation have been proposed over time, many of them deriving from the Penman equation. This study evaluated six different methods for estimating evaporation in order to determine the most suitable for use in hydrological models for water balance in reservoirs in the state of Ceará. The tested methods were proposed by Penman, Kohler-Nordenson-Fox, Priestley-Taylor, deBruim-Keijman, Brutsaert-Stricker and deBruim. The methods presented good performance when tested for water balance during the dry season, and the Priestley-Taylor was the most appropriate, since the data from de simulated water balance with evaporation estimated by this method were the closest of the water balance data observed from measures of reservoir level and the elevation-volume curve provided by the Company of Management of Water Resources of the state of Ceará - COGERH.

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The edafoclimatic conditions of the Brazilian semiarid region favor the water loss by surface runoff. The state of Ceará, almost completely covered by semiarid, has developed public policies for the construction of dams in order to attend the varied water demand. Several hydrological models were developed to support decisive processes in the complex management of reservoirs. This study aimed to establish a methodology for obtaining a georeferenced database suitable for use as input data in hydrological modeling in the semiarid of Ceará. It was used images of Landsat satellite and SRTM Mission, and soil maps of the state of Ceará. The Landsat images allowed the determination of the land cover and the SRTM Mission images, the automatic delineation of hydrographic basins. The soil type was obtained through the soil map. The database was obtained for Jaguaribe River hydrographic basin, in the state of Ceará, and is applicable to hydrological modeling based on the Curve Number method for estimating the surface runoff.

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Cells of epithelial origin, e.g. from breast and prostate cancers, effectively differentiate into complex multicellular structures when cultured in three-dimensions (3D) instead of conventional two-dimensional (2D) adherent surfaces. The spectrum of different organotypic morphologies is highly dependent on the culture environment that can be either non-adherent or scaffold-based. When embedded in physiological extracellular matrices (ECMs), such as laminin-rich basement membrane extracts, normal epithelial cells differentiate into acinar spheroids reminiscent of glandular ductal structures. Transformed cancer cells, in contrast, typically fail to undergo acinar morphogenic patterns, forming poorly differentiated or invasive multicellular structures. The 3D cancer spheroids are widely accepted to better recapitulate various tumorigenic processes and drug responses. So far, however, 3D models have been employed predominantly in the Academia, whereas the pharmaceutical industry has yet to adopt a more widely and routine use. This is mainly due to poor characterisation of cell models, lack of standardised workflows and high throughput cell culture platforms, and the availability of proper readout and quantification tools. In this thesis, a complete workflow has been established entailing well-characterised 3D cell culture models for prostate cancer, a standardised 3D cell culture routine based on high-throughput-ready platform, automated image acquisition with concomitant morphometric image analysis, and data visualisation, in order to enable large-scale high-content screens. Our integrated suite of software and statistical analysis tools were optimised and validated using a comprehensive panel of prostate cancer cell lines and 3D models. The tools quantify multiple key cancer-relevant morphological features, ranging from cancer cell invasion through multicellular differentiation to growth, and detect dynamic changes both in morphology and function, such as cell death and apoptosis, in response to experimental perturbations including RNA interference and small molecule inhibitors. Our panel of cell lines included many non-transformed and most currently available classic prostate cancer cell lines, which were characterised for their morphogenetic properties in 3D laminin-rich ECM. The phenotypes and gene expression profiles were evaluated concerning their relevance for pre-clinical drug discovery, disease modelling and basic research. In addition, a spontaneous model for invasive transformation was discovered, displaying a highdegree of epithelial plasticity. This plasticity is mediated by an abundant bioactive serum lipid, lysophosphatidic acid (LPA), and its receptor LPAR1. The invasive transformation was caused by abrupt cytoskeletal rearrangement through impaired G protein alpha 12/13 and RhoA/ROCK, and mediated by upregulated adenylyl cyclase/cyclic AMP (cAMP)/protein kinase A, and Rac/ PAK pathways. The spontaneous invasion model tangibly exemplifies the biological relevance of organotypic cell culture models. Overall, this thesis work underlines the power of novel morphometric screening tools in drug discovery.

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This research focused on operation of a manpower pool within a service business unit in Company X and aimed to identify how the operation should be improved in order to get most out of it concerning the future prospects of the service business unit. This was done by analyzing the current state of the manpower pool related operations in means of project business, project management and business models. The objective was to deepen the understanding and to highlight possible areas of improvement. The research was conducted as a qualitative single-case study utilizing also an action research method; the research approach was a combination of conceptual, action-oriented and constructive approaches. The primary data was collected with executing a comprehensive literature review and semi-structured theme interviews. The main results described how the manpower pool operates as part of the service business unit in project business by participating in different types of delivery projects; process flows for the project types were mapped. Project management was analyzed especially from the resource management point of view, and an Excel-based skills analysis model was constructed for this purpose. Utilization of operational business models was also studied to define strategic direction for development activities. The results were benchmarked against two competitors in order to specify lessons to be learnt from their use of operational business models.

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State-of-the-art predictions of atmospheric states rely on large-scale numerical models of chaotic systems. This dissertation studies numerical methods for state and parameter estimation in such systems. The motivation comes from weather and climate models and a methodological perspective is adopted. The dissertation comprises three sections: state estimation, parameter estimation and chemical data assimilation with real atmospheric satellite data. In the state estimation part of this dissertation, a new filtering technique based on a combination of ensemble and variational Kalman filtering approaches, is presented, experimented and discussed. This new filter is developed for large-scale Kalman filtering applications. In the parameter estimation part, three different techniques for parameter estimation in chaotic systems are considered. The methods are studied using the parameterized Lorenz 95 system, which is a benchmark model for data assimilation. In addition, a dilemma related to the uniqueness of weather and climate model closure parameters is discussed. In the data-oriented part of this dissertation, data from the Global Ozone Monitoring by Occultation of Stars (GOMOS) satellite instrument are considered and an alternative algorithm to retrieve atmospheric parameters from the measurements is presented. The validation study presents first global comparisons between two unique satellite-borne datasets of vertical profiles of nitrogen trioxide (NO3), retrieved using GOMOS and Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment III (SAGE III) satellite instruments. The GOMOS NO3 observations are also considered in a chemical state estimation study in order to retrieve stratospheric temperature profiles. The main result of this dissertation is the consideration of likelihood calculations via Kalman filtering outputs. The concept has previously been used together with stochastic differential equations and in time series analysis. In this work, the concept is applied to chaotic dynamical systems and used together with Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods for statistical analysis. In particular, this methodology is advocated for use in numerical weather prediction (NWP) and climate model applications. In addition, the concept is shown to be useful in estimating the filter-specific parameters related, e.g., to model error covariance matrix parameters.

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Species with mostly asexual reproduction are interesting subjects for germination studies since variation would be more easily linked to environmental factors. Miconia ferruginata DC. is an apomictic treelet in Brazilian cerrado areas on rocky outcrops. Germination of seeds collected from individuals occurring in the Serra de Caldas Novas State Park, Goiás, was studied in three experiments under controlled conditions. Germination characteristics differed among individuals and were correlated with altitude and soil Al content. Seeds from plants growing at lower altitudes, with lower soil aluminium content, presented malformed seeds with absence of embryo which rendered lower, but better synchronized germination. The nested analysis showed that from the total variance, 78.14% for germinability, 54.56% for uncertainty of the germination process, and 68.30% for the quantity of seeds without embryo was attributed to the altitudinal effect. Individuals nested within altitude contributed up to 16.93% for the total variance. It means that there is low variability among individuals of the same altitude and high variability among individuals from different points of the slope, making clear that for the studied population the environmental effect is stronger than the genetic component to determine the seed quality. The testa of the seeds provides a mechanical dormancy which seems to be associated also with phenolic compounds, which help to disperse germination through time. Photoblastism was also registered for seeds of this species.

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The diversity of algal banks composed of species out the genera Gracilaria Greville and Hypnea J.V. Lamouroux have been impacted by commercial exploitation and coastal eutrophication. The present study sought to construct dynamic models based on algal physiology to simulate seasonal variations in the biomasses of Gracilaria and Hypnea an intertidal reef at Piedade Beach in Jaboatão dos Guararapes, Pernambuco State, Brazil. Five 20 × 20 cm plots in a reef pool on a midlittoral reef platform were randomly sampled during April, June, August, October, and December/2009 and in January and March/2010. Water temperature, pH, irradiance, oxygen and salinity levels as well as the concentrations of ammonia, nitrate and phosphate were measured at the sampling site. Forcing functions were employed in the model to represent abiotic factors, and algal decay was simulated with a dispersal function. Algal growth was modeled using a logistic function and was found to be sensitive to temperature and salinity. Maximum absorption rates of ammonia and phosphate were higher in Hypnea than in Gracilaria, indicating that the former takes up nutrients more efficiently at higher concentrations. Gracilaria biomass peaked at approximately 120 g (dry weight m-2) in March/2010 and was significantly lower in August/2009; Hypnea biomasses, on the other hand, did not show any significant variations among the different months, indicating that resource competition may influence the productivity of these algae.

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It has been proposed that the multiple-platform method (MP) for desynchronized sleep (DS) deprivation eliminates the stress induced by social isolation and by the restriction of locomotion in the single-platform (SP) method. MP, however, induces a higher increase in plasma corticosterone and ACTH levels than SP. Since deprivation is of heuristic value to identify the functional role of this state of sleep, the objective of the present study was to determine the behavioral differences exhibited by rats during sleep deprivation induced by these two methods. All behavioral patterns exhibited by a group of 7 albino male Wistar rats submitted to 4 days of sleep deprivation by the MP method (15 platforms, spaced 150 mm apart) and by 7 other rats submitted to sleep deprivation by the SP method were recorded in order to elaborate an ethogram. The behavioral patterns were quantitated in 10 replications by naive observers using other groups of 7 rats each submitted to the same deprivation schedule. Each quantification session lasted 35 min and the behavioral patterns presented by each rat over a period of 5 min were counted. The results obtained were: a) rats submitted to the MP method changed platforms at a mean rate of 2.62 ± 1.17 platforms h-1 animal-1; b) the number of episodes of noninteractive waking patterns for the MP animals was significantly higher than that for SP animals (1077 vs 768); c) additional episodes of waking patterns (26.9 ± 18.9 episodes/session) were promoted by social interaction in MP animals; d) the cumulative number of sleep episodes observed in the MP test (311) was significantly lower (chi-square test, 1 d.f., P<0.05) than that observed in the SP test (534); e) rats submitted to the MP test did not show the well-known increase in ambulatory activity observed after the end of the SP test; f) comparison of 6 MP and 6 SP rats showed a significantly shorter latency to the onset of DS in MP rats (7.8 ± 4.3 and 29.0 ± 25.0 min, respectively; Student t-test, P<0.05). We conclude that the social interaction occurring in the MP test generates additional stress since it increases the time of forced wakefulness and reduces the time of rest promoted by synchronized sleep.

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Time series analysis can be categorized into three different approaches: classical, Box-Jenkins, and State space. Classical approach makes a basement for the analysis and Box-Jenkins approach is an improvement of the classical approach and deals with stationary time series. State space approach allows time variant factors and covers up a broader area of time series analysis. This thesis focuses on parameter identifiablity of different parameter estimation methods such as LSQ, Yule-Walker, MLE which are used in the above time series analysis approaches. Also the Kalman filter method and smoothing techniques are integrated with the state space approach and MLE method to estimate parameters allowing them to change over time. Parameter estimation is carried out by repeating estimation and integrating with MCMC and inspect how well different estimation methods can identify the optimal model parameters. Identification is performed in probabilistic and general senses and compare the results in order to study and represent identifiability more informative way.

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The prevalence of hepatitis B virus (HBV) in Brazil increases from South to North but moderate to elevated prevalence has been detected in the Southwest of Paraná State. The prevalence of serological markers of HBV was evaluated in 3188 pregnant women from different counties in Paraná State and relevant epidemiological features were described. The prevalence of HBV markers in pregnant women for the state as a whole was 18.5% (95% CI = 17.2-19.9), ranging from 7.2% in Curitiba to 38.5% in Francisco Beltrão. The endemicity of HBV marker prevalence in pregnant women was intermediate in Cascavel, Foz do Iguaçu, and Francisco Beltrão, and low in Curitiba, Londrina, Maringá, and Paranaguá. Multiple logistic regression showed that HBV marker prevalence increased with age, was higher among black women, among women of Italian and German descent, and among women who had family members in neighboring Rio Grande do Sul State. Univariate analysis showed that HBV marker prevalence was also higher among women with no education or only primary education, with a lower family income and whose families originated from the South Region of Brazil. Pregnant women not having positive HBV markers (anti-HBc, HBsAg or anti-HBs detected by ELISA) corresponded to 73.7% of the population studied, implying that HBV vaccination needs to be reinforced in Paraná State. The highest prevalence was found in three counties that received the largest number of families from Santa Catarina and Rio Grande do Sul, where most immigrants were of German or Italian ascendance. This finding probably indicates that immigrants that came to this area brought HBV infection to Southwestern Paraná State.

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This paper analyzes the profile of the Brazilian output in the field of multiple sclerosis from 1981 to 2004. The search was conducted through the MEDLINE and LILACS databases, selecting papers in which the term "multiple sclerosis" was defined as the main topic and "Brazil" or "Brasil" as others. The data were analyzed regarding the themes, the state in Brazil and institution where the papers were produced, the journals where the papers were published, journal's impact factor, and language. The search disclosed 141 documents (91 from MEDLINE and LILACS, and 50 from LILACS only) published in 44 different journals (23 of them MEDLINE-indexed). A total of 111 documents were produced by 17 public universities, 29 by 3 private medical schools and 1 by a non-governmental organization. There were 65 original contributions, 37 case reports, 20 reviews, 6 PhD dissertations, 5 guidelines, 2 validation studies, 2 clinical trials, 2 chapters in textbooks, 1 Master of Science thesis, and 1 patient education handout. The journal impact factor ranged from 0.0217 to 6.039 (median 3.03). Of 91 papers from MEDLINE, 65 were published by Arquivos de Neuro-Psiquiatria. More than 90% of the papers were written in Portuguese. São Paulo was the most productive state in the country, followed by Rio de Janeiro, Minas Gerais and Paraná. Eighty-two percent of the Brazilian output came from the Southeastern region.

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The two main objectives of Bayesian inference are to estimate parameters and states. In this thesis, we are interested in how this can be done in the framework of state-space models when there is a complete or partial lack of knowledge of the initial state of a continuous nonlinear dynamical system. In literature, similar problems have been referred to as diffuse initialization problems. This is achieved first by extending the previously developed diffuse initialization Kalman filtering techniques for discrete systems to continuous systems. The second objective is to estimate parameters using MCMC methods with a likelihood function obtained from the diffuse filtering. These methods are tried on the data collected from the 1995 Ebola outbreak in Kikwit, DRC in order to estimate the parameters of the system.

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The main objective of this study was to find out the bases for innovation model formulation in an existing organization based on cases. Innovation processes can be analyzed based on their needs and based on their emphasis on the business model development or R&D. The research was conducted in energy sector within one company by utilizing its projects as cases for the study. It is typical for the field of business that development is slow, although the case company has put emphasis on its innovation efforts. Analysis was done by identifying the cases’ needs and comparing them. The results were that because of the variances in the needs of the cases, the applicability of innovation process models varies. It was discovered that by dividing the process into two phases, a uniform model could be composed. This model would fulfill the needs of the cases and potential future projects as well.