The risk prediction for SPM and its impact on the survival in patients with head and neck squamous cell carcinoma

Head and Neck Squamous Cell Carcinoma (HNSCC) is the sixth common malignancy in the world, with high rates of developing second primary malignancy (SPM) and moderately low survival rates. This disease has become an enormous challenge in the cancer research and treatments. For HNSCC patients, a highly significant cause of post-treatment mortality and morbidity is the development of SPM. Hence, assessment of predicting the risk for the development of SPM would be very helpful for patients, clinicians and policy makers to estimate the survival of patients with HNSCC. In this study, we built a prognostic model to predict the risk of developing SPM in patients with newly diagnosed HNSCC. The dataset used in this research was obtained from The University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center. For the first aim, we used stepwise logistic regression to identify the prognostic factors for the development of SPM. Our final model contained cancer site and overall cancer stage as our risk factors for SPM. The Hosmer-Lemeshow test (p-value= 0.15>0.05) showed the final prognostic model fit the data well. The area under the ROC curve was 0.72 that suggested the discrimination ability of our model was acceptable. The internal validation confirmed the prognostic model was a good fit and the final prognostic model would not over optimistically predict the risk of SPM. This model needs external validation by using large data sample size before it can be generalized to predict SPM risk for other HNSCC patients. For the second aim, we utilized a multistate survival analysis approach to estimate the probability of death for HNSCC patients taking into consideration of the possibility of SPM. Patients without SPM were associated with longer survival. These findings suggest that the development of SPM could be a predictor of survival rates among the patients with HNSCC.^

Prevalence of Staphylococcus aureus colonization among high-risk HIV populations

Staphylococcus aureus is a common microorganism in humans, typically colonizing the nasopharynx, skin and other mucosal surfaces. It is among the most frequent causes of clinically-significant bacterial infections accounting for increased morbidity and mortality among individuals with HIV/AIDS. Evidence of higher colonization rates among high-risk HIV populations have been observed however, prevalence estimates have varied. Additionally, behavioral, biological, and/or environmental factors that may account for these high colonization rates are not understood. Previous literature on clinic-based surveys were subject to considerable biases. Additionally, representative samples of high-risk HIV populations were difficult to obtain due in part to an underrepresentation of individuals who may not regularly obtain health care. ^ The main objective of this project is to determine the prevalence of methicillin-sensitive S. aureus (MSSA) and methicillin-resistant (MRSA) nasal colonization in two populations: 1) men who have sex with men (MSM) and 2) injection drug users (IDU). Both of these populations are included in the third round of the National HIV Behavioral Surveillance System (NHBS) in Houston, Texas. ^ In the NHBS-MSM3 study, logistic regression was used to report odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals (CI). For the NHBS-IDU3 study, to account for the lack of independence between samples, the method of generalized estimating equations was utilized to report adjusted odds ratios and 95% CI. The NHBS-MSM3 study enrolled 202 participants with a MSSA colonization rate of 26.7% and MRSA rate of 3%. In the NHBS-IDU3 study, 18.4% were nasally colonized with MSSA and 5.7% were nasally colonized with MRSA. Among the NHBS-MSM3 population, high-risk sexual practices were associated with colonization. For the NHBS-IDU3 population, age, marital status, employment status, and the presence of scabs, were associated with colonization status when controlling for size of recruitment network. In multivariate GEE analyses, the use of antiretroviral medications and age remained significantly associated with S. aureus nasal colonization when controlling for size of recruitment network and gender. In both studies, a significantly higher than expected S. aureus and MRSA colonization rate was observed as compared to colonization rates described for the general population. However, these estimates were moderate in comparison to reported clinic-based MSM and IDU S. aureus colonization findings. This study validates substantial prevalence differences and biases that may exist with data collected from clinic-based MSM and IDU. The prevalence of MSSA and MRSA nasal colonization did not differ significantly with respect to HIV status among NHBS-MSM3/NHBS-IDU3 participants. Continued examination on the effects of S. aureus colonization and infection should be examined longitudinally to confirm additional community-based determinants in populations that are disproportionately affected.^

A cohort study of body fatness and coronary mortality in middle -aged men

Data from the Chicago Western Electric Study were used to investigate whether central fat distribution, as estimated by the ratio of subscapular-to-triceps skinfold, was associated with 25-year risk of death from coronary heart disease in a cohort of 1,945 middle-aged employed men. Subscapular-triceps skinfold ratio was found positively and significantly associated with risk of coronary death after adjustment for age and body mass index. The age-adjusted proportional hazards regression coefficient was 0.2078 with 95% confidence interval of 0.0087 to 0.4069. A difference of 1.1 in the subscapular-triceps skinfold ratio (the difference between the mean of the fifth quintile and of the first and second quintiles combined) was associated with a relative risk of 1.31 with 95% confidence interval of 1.06 to 1.62. The coefficient was decreased to 0.1961 (95% confidence interval of ($-$0.0028 to 0.3950) after adjustment for diastolic blood pressure, serum cholesterol and cigarette smoking as well as age and body mass index. At least some of the effect of central fat on coronary risk is probably mediated by blood pressure and serum lipids, but whether all of the effect can be accounted for blood pressure and serum lipids is uncertain.^ This study supports the concept that central fat distribution is a risk factor for 25-year risk of coronary death in middle-aged men. ^

The effects of adequacy and content of prenatal care on birth outcomes in a high -risk Missouri population

The purpose of this observational study was investigation of the relationship between quantitative adequacy of prenatal care, specific prenatal care content and pregnancy outcome in a high risk Missouri population. A sample of 1484 women from three Missouri regions known to have high rates of low birth weight, infant mortality, and inadequate prenatal care rates participated in structured post-partum interviews. Approximately one-half of the sample had received adequate prenatal care and the other half inadequate prenatal care as determined by an index utilized by the Missouri Department of Health.^ Prenatal care content was assessed by reports of prenatal education in six different areas: Diet, smoking, alcohol, drug, preterm labor counseling, and advice on when to call the health provider if preterm labor was suspected by the woman. Low birth weight, in both term and preterm infants, were the two birth outcomes examined. A variety of maternal socio-demographic variables were also considered.^ The results of this study suggest that specific educational content, delivered during prenatal care, may have lessen the risk of giving birth to a preterm-low birth weight infant. Prenatal education for recognition of preterm labor, and advice on when to call the health provider if preterm labor was suspected were found to be associated with a decreased risk of preterm delivery. Specific educational content was not, however, associated with risk of term-low weight birth nor was quantitative adequacy of care associated with the risk of either term- or preterm-low birth weight.^ These findings reinforce a body of literature which stresses the importance of appropriate prenatal care in preventing preterm low birth weight. Additionally, the findings suggest interventions that may be specifically effective for prematurity prevention. ^

Selective mortality associated with variation in CO2 tolerance in a marine fish

Predicted future CO2 levels can affect reproduction, growth, and behaviour of many marine organisms. However, the capacity of species to adapt to predicted changes in ocean chemistry is largely unknown. We used a unique field-based experiment to test for differential survival associated with variation in CO2 tolerance in a wild population of coral-reef fishes. Juvenile damselfish exhibited variation in their response to elevated (700 µatm) CO2 when tested in the laboratory and this influenced their behaviour and risk of mortality in the wild. Individuals that were sensitive to elevated CO2 were more active and move further from shelter in natural coral reef habitat and, as a result, mortality from predation was significantly higher compared with individuals from the same treatment that were tolerant of elevated CO2. If individual variation in CO2 tolerance is heritable, this selection of phenotypes tolerant to elevated CO2 could potentially help mitigate the effects of ocean acidification.

Do the spatial characteristics of myocardial scar tissue determine the risk of ventricular arrhythmias?

Sudden cardiac death is one of the main causes of mortality in patients with structural heart disease. Although an implantable cardioverter de?brillator signi?cantly reduces the mortality rate, many patients never receive a shock. Identi?cation of high-risk patients would reduce the costs associated with this therapy and prevent the deleterious effect of inappropriate discharges. As scar tissue is the substrate of ventricular arrhythmias in patients with structural heart disease, scar characterization could allow strati?cation of the risk. The objective of this article is to review the role of scar characteristics in the pathogenesis of ventricular arrhythmias in patients with structural heart disease.

Blood pressure and mortality in elderly people aged 85 and older: community based study

Objective: To determine whether the inverse relation between blood pressure and all cause mortality in elderly people over 85 years of age can be explained by adjusting for health status, and to determine whether high blood pressure is a risk factor for mortality when the effects of poor health are accounted for.

Annual league tables of mortality in neonatal intensive care units: longitudinal study

Objective: To assess whether crude league tables of mortality and league tables of risk adjusted mortality accurately reflect the performance of hospitals.

Reduced fetal growth rate and increased risk of death from ischaemic heart disease: cohort study of 15 000 Swedish men and women born 1915-29

Objective: To establish whether fetal growth rate (as distinct from size at birth) is associated with mortality from ischaemic heart disease.

Allostatic load as a marker of cumulative biological risk: MacArthur studies of successful aging

Allostatic load (AL) has been proposed as a new conceptualization of cumulative biological burden exacted on the body through attempts to adapt to life's demands. Using a multisystem summary measure of AL, we evaluated its capacity to predict four categories of health outcomes, 7 years after a baseline survey of 1,189 men and women age 70–79. Higher baseline AL scores were associated with significantly increased risk for 7-year mortality as well as declines in cognitive and physical functioning and were marginally associated with incident cardiovascular disease events, independent of standard socio-demographic characteristics and baseline health status. The summary AL measure was based on 10 parameters of biological functioning, four of which are primary mediators in the cascade from perceived challenges to downstream health outcomes. Six of the components are secondary mediators reflecting primarily components of the metabolic syndrome (syndrome X). AL was a better predictor of mortality and decline in physical functioning than either the syndrome X or primary mediator components alone. The findings support the concept of AL as a measure of cumulative biological burden.

Prospective measurements of dehydroepiandrosterone sulfate in a cohort of elderly subjects: Relationship to gender, subjective health, smoking habits, and 10-year mortality

The decrease with age of the adrenal-secreted dehydroepiandrosterone sulfate (DHEAS) in serum has suggested that it may be causally related to longevity. For the PAQUID [People (Personnes) Aged (Agées) About What (Quid, in Latin)] cohort of elderly subjects, we have previously reported higher DHEAS in men than in women, a decrease with age and, among men, a negative correlation between the DHEAS level and mortality at 2 and 4 years. Here, with an 8-year followup in 290 subjects, we show a global decrease of 2.3% per year for men and 3.9% per year for women. However, in approximately 30% of cases, there was an increase of DHEAS. We observed no relationship between the evolution of DHEAS level and functional, psychological, and mental status, possibly because of selection by death. In women, no association was found between mortality and DHEAS level. In men, the relative risk (RR) of death was higher for the lowest levels of DHEAS (RR = 1.9, P = 0.007), with RR = 6.5, P = 0.003 for those under 70 years old, a result indicating heterogeneity of the population. There was an effect of subjective health on mortality that disappeared after adjustment of DHEAS levels, suggesting its relation with these DHEAS levels. Death RR was much higher in smokers with a low DHEAS level than in nonsmokers with high DHEAS (RR = 6.7, P = 0.001). We submit that the involvement of DHEAS is possibly different according to gender, that association between low DHEAS level and mortality only for men under 70 years old possibly reflects heterogeneity of the population, and that DHEAS level is a reliable predictor of death in male smokers.

Adaptive plasticity in hatching age: a response to predation risk trade-offs.

The life histories of many animals are characterized by niche shifts, the timing of which can strongly affect fitness. In the tree frog Agalychnis callidryas, which has arboreal eggs, there is a trade-off between predation risks before and after hatching. When eggs are attacked by snakes, tadpoles escape by hatching rapidly and falling into the water below. Eggs not attacked by snakes hatch later, when newly emerged tadpoles are less vulnerable to aquatic predators. Plasticity in hatching allows embryos to use immediate, local information on risk of mortality to make instantaneous behavioral decisions about hatching and the accompanying shift from arboreal to aquatic habitats.

Cancer mortality inequalities in urban areas: a Bayesian small area analysis in Spanish cities

Background: Intra-urban inequalities in mortality have been infrequently analysed in European contexts. The aim of the present study was to analyse patterns of cancer mortality and their relationship with socioeconomic deprivation in small areas in 11 Spanish cities. Methods: It is a cross-sectional ecological design using mortality data (years 1996-2003). Units of analysis were the census tracts. A deprivation index was calculated for each census tract. In order to control the variability in estimating the risk of dying we used Bayesian models. We present the RR of the census tract with the highest deprivation vs. the census tract with the lowest deprivation. Results: In the case of men, socioeconomic inequalities are observed in total cancer mortality in all cities, except in Castellon, Cordoba and Vigo, while Barcelona (RR = 1.53 95%CI 1.42-1.67), Madrid (RR = 1.57 95%CI 1.49-1.65) and Seville (RR = 1.53 95%CI 1.36-1.74) present the greatest inequalities. In general Barcelona and Madrid, present inequalities for most types of cancer. Among women for total cancer mortality, inequalities have only been found in Barcelona and Zaragoza. The excess number of cancer deaths due to socioeconomic deprivation was 16,413 for men and 1,142 for women. Conclusion: This study has analysed inequalities in cancer mortality in small areas of cities in Spain, not only relating this mortality with socioeconomic deprivation, but also calculating the excess mortality which may be attributed to such deprivation. This knowledge is particularly useful to determine which geographical areas in each city need intersectorial policies in order to promote a healthy environment.

Trends in socioeconomic inequalities in amenable mortality in urban areas of Spanish cities, 1996-2007

Background: While research continues into indicators such as preventable and amenable mortality in order to evaluate quality, access, and equity in the healthcare, it is also necessary to continue identifying the areas of greatest risk owing to these causes of death in urban areas of large cities, where a large part of the population is concentrated, in order to carry out specific actions and reduce inequalities in mortality. This study describes inequalities in amenable mortality in relation to socioeconomic status in small urban areas, and analyses their evolution over the course of the periods 1996–99, 2000–2003 and 2004–2007 in three major cities in the Spanish Mediterranean coast (Alicante, Castellón, and Valencia). Methods: All deaths attributed to amenable causes were analysed among non-institutionalised residents in the three cities studied over the course of the study periods. Census tracts for the cities were grouped into 3 socioeconomic status levels, from higher to lower levels of deprivation, using 5 indicators obtained from the 2001 Spanish Population Census. For each city, the relative risks of death were estimated between socioeconomic status levels using Poisson’s Regression models, adjusted for age and study period, and distinguishing between genders. Results: Amenable mortality contributes significantly to general mortality (around 10%, higher among men), having decreased over time in the three cities studied for men and women. In the three cities studied, with a high degree of consistency, it has been seen that the risks of mortality are greater in areas of higher deprivation, and that these excesses have not significantly modified over time. Conclusions: Although amenable mortality decreases over the time period studied, the socioeconomic inequalities observed are maintained in the three cities. Areas have been identified that display excesses in amenable mortality, potentially attributable to differences in the healthcare system, associated with areas of greater deprivation. Action must be taken in these areas of greater inequality in order to reduce the health inequalities detected. The causes behind socioeconomic inequalities in amenable mortality must be studied in depth.

Trends in socioeconomic inequalities in preventable mortality in urban areas of 33 Spanish cities, 1996–2007 (MEDEA project)

Background: Preventable mortality is a good indicator of possible problems to be investigated in the primary prevention chain, making it also a useful tool with which to evaluate health policies particularly public health policies. This study describes inequalities in preventable avoidable mortality in relation to socioeconomic status in small urban areas of thirty three Spanish cities, and analyses their evolution over the course of the periods 1996–2001 and 2002–2007. Methods: We analysed census tracts and all deaths occurring in the population residing in these cities from 1996 to 2007 were taken into account. The causes included in the study were lung cancer, cirrhosis, AIDS/HIV, motor vehicle traffic accidents injuries, suicide and homicide. The census tracts were classified into three groups, according their socioeconomic level. To analyse inequalities in mortality risks between the highest and lowest socioeconomic levels and over different periods, for each city and separating by sex, Poisson regression were used. Results: Preventable avoidable mortality made a significant contribution to general mortality (around 7.5%, higher among men), having decreased over time in men (12.7 in 1996–2001 and 10.9 in 2002–2007), though not so clearly among women (3.3% in 1996–2001 and 2.9% in 2002–2007). It has been observed in men that the risks of death are higher in areas of greater deprivation, and that these excesses have not modified over time. The result in women is different and differences in mortality risks by socioeconomic level could not be established in many cities. Conclusions: Preventable mortality decreased between the 1996–2001 and 2002–2007 periods, more markedly in men than in women. There were socioeconomic inequalities in mortality in most cities analysed, associating a higher risk of death with higher levels of deprivation. Inequalities have remained over the two periods analysed. This study makes it possible to identify those areas where excess preventable mortality was associated with more deprived zones. It is in these deprived zones where actions to reduce and monitor health inequalities should be put into place. Primary healthcare may play an important role in this process.