A maximum likelihood algorithm for genome mapping of cytogenetic loci from meiotic configuration data.

Frequencies of meiotic configurations in cytogenetic stocks are dependent on chiasma frequencies in segments defined by centromeres, breakpoints, and telomeres. The expectation maximization algorithm is proposed as a general method to perform maximum likelihood estimations of the chiasma frequencies in the intervals between such locations. The estimates can be translated via mapping functions into genetic maps of cytogenetic landmarks. One set of observational data was analyzed to exemplify application of these methods, results of which were largely concordant with other comparable data. The method was also tested by Monte Carlo simulation of frequencies of meiotic configurations from a monotelodisomic translocation heterozygote, assuming six different sample sizes. The estimate averages were always close to the values given initially to the parameters. The maximum likelihood estimation procedures can be extended readily to other kinds of cytogenetic stocks and allow the pooling of diverse cytogenetic data to collectively estimate lengths of segments, arms, and chromosomes.

Avaliação probabilística de riscos à saúde humana em área contaminada por compostos organoclorados

Introdução: Áreas contaminadas por agentes químicos perigosos em regiões urbanas representam riscos importantes à saúde humana e ao ambiente. Vila Carioca, localizada na cidade de São Paulo, é uma área contaminada por pesticidas organoclorados considerada crítica, pela magnitude da contaminação, pela presença de pessoas residentes e pela complexidade de fontes da contaminação. Vários estudos de riscos já foram realizados por uma das empresas contaminadoras, no entanto, ainda há muita incerteza e controvérsias sobre os riscos à saúde da população. Objetivo: Avaliar o incremento de risco de câncer no tempo de vida para população exposta por meio de uma avaliação probabilística. Método: Foram utilizados dados secundários das contaminações obtidos nos estudos de riscos efetuados pela empresa produtora de pesticidas organoclorados e também em documentos oficiais dos órgãos de saúde e meio ambiente do Estado de São Paulo, resultantes do monitoramento da água e do solo na área residencial no período de 1997 a 2012, para 335 substâncias. Foram selecionadas substâncias carcinogênicas presentes na água subterrânea e solo com melhor conjunto de dados. Para a avaliação probabilística foi empregado o método de simulação de Monte Carlo, por meio do software comercial ModelRisk. Foram utilizados os métodos recomendados pela United States Environmental Protection Agency para a avaliação de risco de exposição dérmica e de incremento de riscos de câncer para substâncias mutagênicas. Foram consideradas a ingestão de água e solo, e contato dérmico com água. Resultados: O incremento de risco de câncer no tempo de vida (IRLT) foi de 4,7x10-3 e 4,1x10-2 para o percentil 50% e 95%, respectivamente. As rotas de exposição mais importantes foram ingestão e contato dérmico com a água subterrânea, seguido da ingestão de solo. O grupo etário que apresentou maior risco foi o das crianças de 0 a 2 anos de idade. Conclusão: Os riscos estimados são superiores aos valores considerados toleráveis. A avaliação realizada foi conservativa, mas ressalta-se que a restrição do uso da água subterrânea deve ser mantida e que a população deve ser devidamente informada dos riscos envolvidos na área, em especial, relacionados ao solo contaminado

Equilibrium fluid-solid coexistence of hard spheres

We present a tethered Monte Carlo simulation of the crystallization of hard spheres. Our method boosts the traditional umbrella sampling to the point of making practical the study of constrained Gibbs’ free energies depending on several crystalline order parameters. We obtain high-accuracy estimates of the fluid-crystal coexistence pressure for up to 2916 particles (enough to accommodate fluid-solid interfaces). We are able to extrapolate to infinite volume the coexistence pressure [p_(co) = 11.5727(10)k_(B)T/σ^(3)] and the interfacial free energy [γ_({100}) = 0.636(11)k_(B)T/σ^(2)].

Best Alternatives to Cronbach's Alpha Reliability in Realistic Conditions: Congeneric and Asymmetrical Measurements

The Cronbach's alpha is the most widely used method for estimating internal consistency reliability. This procedure has proved very resistant to the passage of time, even if its limitations are well documented and although there are better options as omega coefficient or the different versions of glb, with obvious advantages especially for applied research in which the ítems differ in quality or have skewed distributions. In this paper, using Monte Carlo simulation, the performance of these reliability coefficients under a one-dimensional model is evaluated in terms of skewness and no tau-equivalence. The results show that omega coefficient is always better choice than alpha and in the presence of skew items is preferable to use omega and glb coefficients even in small samples.

Evaluación de la susceptibilidad de las laderas a sufrir inestabilidades inducidas por terremotos: aplicación a la cuenca de drenaje del río Serpis (provincia de Alicante)

Se ha realizado un análisis para estimar la susceptibilidad de las laderas, en suelos de la cuenca de drenaje del río Serpis, a sufrir inestabilidades inducidas por terremotos. Para ello, se ha utilizado el denominado método de Newmark, que ha sido convenientemente modificado para contemplar la variabilidad que, de forma natural, se observa en las propiedades geotécnicas de los materiales. En el cálculo, se ha efectuado una simulación Monte Carlo, donde todas las propiedades geotécnicas que intervienen son tratadas como variables aleatorias. Los resultados obtenidos están expresados como probabilidad de que la aceleración crítica del talud sea menor o igual que 0.1g. Las susceptibilidades más elevadas se observan cuando los materiales están secos, pero en tal caso la extensión de territorio afectado es pequeña. En cambio, cuando el suelo está saturado se observa que gran parte del territorio presenta susceptibilidad Media o Baja, incluso con pendientes de 6 – 10º, frente a susceptibilidad Muy Baja – Nula, que los caracteriza cuando se encuentra seco. Se ha analizado también la posición de las zonas de mayor susceptibilidad con respecto a elementos constructivos existentes en el área.

Zéro. Eine geschichte aus Monte Carlo,

Mode of access: Internet.

Adsorption of argon and nitrogen in cylindrical pores of MCM-41 materials: application of density functional theory

Adsorption of argon and nitrogen at their respective boiling points in cylindrical pores of MCM-41 type silica-like adsorbents is studied by means of a non-local density functional theory (NLDFT), which is modified to deal with amorphous solids. By matching the theoretical results of the pore filling pressure versus pore diameter against the experimental data, we arrive at a conclusion that the adsorption branch (rather than desorption) corresponds to the true thermodynamic equilibrium. If this is accepted, we derive the optimal values for the solid–fluid molecular parameters for the system amorphous silica–Ar and amorphous silica–N2, and at the same time we could derive reliably the specific surface area of non-porous and mesoporous silica-like adsorbents, without a recourse to the BET method. This method is then logically extended to describe the local adsorption isotherms of argon and nitrogen in silica-like pores, which are then used as the bases (kernel) to determine the pore size distribution. We test this with a number of adsorption isotherms on the MCM-41 samples, and the results are quite realistic and in excellent agreement with the XRD results, justifying the approach adopted in this paper.

Cost-effectiveness of cognitive-behavioural therapy and drug interventions for major depression

Objective: Antidepressant drugs and cognitive-behavioural therapy (CBT) are effective treatment options for depression and are recommended by clinical practice guidelines. As part of the Assessing Cost-effectiveness - Mental Health project we evaluate the available evidence on costs and benefits of CBT and drugs in the episodic and maintenance treatment of major depression. Method: The cost-effectiveness is modelled from a health-care perspective as the cost per disability-adjusted life year. Interventions are targeted at people with major depression who currently seek care but receive non-evidence based treatment. Uncertainty in model inputs is tested using Monte Carlo simulation methods. Results: All interventions for major depression examined have a favourable incremental cost-effectiveness ratio under Australian health service conditions. Bibliotherapy, group CBT, individual CBT by a psychologist on a public salary and tricyclic antidepressants (TCAs) are very cost-effective treatment options falling below $A10 000 per disability-adjusted life year (DALY) even when taking the upper limit of the uncertainty interval into account. Maintenance treatment with selective serotonin re-uptake inhibitors (SSRIs) is the most expensive option (ranging from $A17 000 to $A20 000 per DALY) but still well below $A50 000, which is considered the affordable threshold. Conclusions: A range of cost-effective interventions for episodes of major depression exists and is currently underutilized. Maintenance treatment strategies are required to significantly reduce the burden of depression, but the cost of long-term drug treatment for the large number of depressed people is high if SSRIs are the drug of choice. Key policy issues with regard to expanded provision of CBT concern the availability of suitably trained providers and the funding mechanisms for therapy in primary care.

Adsorption of flexible n-alkane on graphitized thermal carbon black: analysis of adsorption isotherm by means of GCMC simulation

In this paper, we investigate the suitability of the grand canonical Monte Carlo in the description of adsorption equilibria of flexible n-alkane (butane, pentane and hexane) on graphitized thermal carbon black. Potential model of n-alkane of Martin and Siepmann (J. Phys. Chem. 102 (1998) 2569) is employed in the simulation, and we consider the flexibility of molecule in the simulation. By this we study two models, one is the fully flexible molecular model in which n-alkane is subject to bending and torsion, while the other is the rigid molecular model in which all carbon atoms reside on the same plane. It is found that (i) the adsorption isotherm results of these two models are close to each other, suggesting that n-alkane model behaves mostly as rigid molecules with respect to adsorption although the isotherm for longer chain n-hexane is better described by the flexible molecular model (ii) the isotherms agree very well with the experimental data at least up to two layers on the surface.

Comparative adsorption of spherical argon and flexible n-butane in carbon slit pores - a GCMC computer simulation study

In this paper we investigate the difference between the adsorption of spherical molecule argon (at 87.3 K) and the flexible normal butane (at an equivalent temperature of 150 K) in carbon slit pores. These temperatures are equivalent in the sense that they have the same relative distances between their respective triple points and critical points. Higher equivalent temperatures are also studied (122.67 K for argon and 303 K for n-butane) to investigate the effects of temperature on the 2D-transition in adsorbed density. The Grand Canonical Monte Carlo simulation is used to study the adsorption of these two model adsorbates. Beside the longer computation times involved in the computation of n-butane adsorption, n-butane exhibits many interesting behaviors such as: (i) the onset of adsorption occurs sooner (in terms of relative pressure), (ii) the hysteresis for 2D- and 3D-transitions is larger, (iii) liquid-solid transition is not possible, (iv) 2D-transition occurs for n-butane at 150 K while it does not happen for argon except for pores that accommodate two layers of molecules, (v) the maximum pore density is about four times less than that of argon and (vi) the sieving pore width is slightly larger than that for argon. Finally another feature obtained from the Grand Canonical Monte Carlo (GCMC) simulation is the configurational arrangement of molecules in pores. For spherical argon, the arrangement is rather well structured, while for n-butane the arrangement depends very much on the pore size. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Testing multiple mapping conditioning mixing for Monte Carlo probability density function simulations

Mitarai [Phys. Fluids 17, 047101 (2005)] compared turbulent combustion models against homogeneous direct numerical simulations with extinction/recognition phenomena. The recently suggested multiple mapping conditioning (MMC) was not considered and is simulated here for the same case with favorable results. Implementation issues crucial for successful MMC simulations are also discussed.