The effect of a large freshwater perturbation on the glacial north Atlantic Ocean using a coupled general circulation model

The commonly held view of the conditions in the North Atlantic at the last glacial maximum, based on the interpretation of proxy records, is of large-scale cooling compared to today, limited deep convection, and extensive sea ice, all associated with a southward displaced and weakened overturning thermohaline circulation (THC) in the North Atlantic. Not all studies support that view; in particular, the "strength of the overturning circulation" is contentious and is a quantity that is difficult to determine even for the present day. Quasi-equilibrium simulations with coupled climate models forced by glacial boundary conditions have produced differing results, as have inferences made from proxy records. Most studies suggest the weaker circulation, some suggest little or no change, and a few suggest a stronger circulation. Here results are presented from a three-dimensional climate model, the Hadley Centre Coupled Model version 3 (HadCM3), of the coupled atmosphere - ocean - sea ice system suggesting, in a qualitative sense, that these diverging views could all have occurred at different times during the last glacial period, with different modes existing at different times. One mode might have been characterized by an active THC associated with moderate temperatures in the North Atlantic and a modest expanse of sea ice. The other mode, perhaps forced by large inputs of meltwater from the continental ice sheets into the northern North Atlantic, might have been characterized by a sluggish THC associated with very cold conditions around the North Atlantic and a large areal cover of sea ice. The authors' model simulation of such a mode, forced by a large input of freshwater, bears several of the characteristics of the Climate: Long-range Investigation, Mapping, and Prediction (CLIMAP) Project's reconstruction of glacial sea surface temperature and sea ice extent.

The potential to narrow uncertainty in projections of regional precipitation change

We separate and quantify the sources of uncertainty in projections of regional (*2,500 km) precipitation changes for the twenty-first century using the CMIP3 multi-model ensemble, allowing a direct comparison with a similar analysis for regional temperature changes. For decadal means of seasonal mean precipitation, internal variability is the dominant uncertainty for predictions of the first decade everywhere, and for many regions until the third decade ahead. Model uncertainty is generally the dominant source of uncertainty for longer lead times. Scenario uncertainty is found to be small or negligible for all regions and lead times, apart from close to the poles at the end of the century. For the global mean, model uncertainty dominates at all lead times. The signal-to-noise ratio (S/N) of the precipitation projections is highest at the poles but less than 1 almost everywhere else, and is far lower than for temperature projections. In particular, the tropics have the highest S/N for temperature, but the lowest for precipitation. We also estimate a ‘potential S/N’ by assuming that model uncertainty could be reduced to zero, and show that, for regional precipitation, the gains in S/N are fairly modest, especially for predictions of the next few decades. This finding suggests that adaptation decisions will need to be made in the context of high uncertainty concerning regional changes in precipitation. The potential to narrow uncertainty in regional temperature projections is far greater. These conclusions on S/N are for the current generation of models; the real signal may be larger or smaller than the CMIP3 multi-model mean. Also note that the S/N for extreme precipitation, which is more relevant for many climate impacts, may be larger than for the seasonal mean precipitation considered here.

A randomised controlled trial of cognitive behaviour therapy for psychosis in a routine clinical service

Objective: To evaluate CBTp delivered by non-expert therapists, using CBT relevant measures. Methods: Participants (N=74) were randomised into immediate therapy or waiting list control groups. The therapy group was offered six months of therapy and followed up three months later. The waiting list group received therapy after waiting nine months (becoming the delayed therapy group). Results: Depression improved in the combined therapy group at both the end of therapy and follow-up. Other significant effects were found in only one of the two therapy groups (positive symptoms; cognitive flexibility; uncontrollability of thoughts) or one of the two timepoints (end of therapy: PANSS general symptoms, anxiety, suicidal ideation, social functioning, resistance to voices; follow-up: power beliefs about voices, negative symptoms). There was no difference in costs between the groups. Conclusions: The only robust improvement was in depression. Nevertheless, there were further encouraging but modest improvements in both emotional and cognitive variables, in addition to psychotic symptoms.

Ideational change in the WTO and its impacts on EU agricultural policy institutions and the CAP

This paper argues that the Uruguay Round Agreement on Agriculture (URAA) introduced the market liberal paradigm as the ideational underpinning of the new farm trade regime. Though the immediate consequences in terms of limitations on agricultural support and protection were very modest, the Agreement did impact on the way in which domestic farm policy evolves. It forced EU agricultural policy makers to consider the agricultural negotiations when reforming the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP). The new paradigm in global farm trade resulted in a process of institutional layering in which concerns raised in the World Trade Organization (WTO) were gradually incorporated in EU agricultural institutions. This has resulted in gradual reform of the CAP in which policy instruments have been changed in order to make the CAP more WTO compatible. The underlying paradigm, the state-assisted paradigm, has been sustained though it has been rephrased by introducing the concept of multifunctionality.

Dual technological development in Botswana agriculture: A Stochastic input distance function approach

To improve the welfare of the rural poor and keep them in the countryside, the government of Botswana has been spending 40% of the value of agricultural GDP on agricultural support services. But can investment make smallholder agriculture prosperous in such adverse conditions? This paper derives an answer by applying a two-output six-input stochastic translog distance function, with inefficiency effects and biased technical change to panel data for the 18 districts and the commercial agricultural sector, from 1979 to 1996 This model demonstrates that herds are the most important input, followed by draft power. land and seeds. Multilateral indices for technical change, technical efficiency and total factor productivity (TFP) show that the technology level of the commercial agricultural sector is more than six times that of traditional agriculture and that the gap has been increasing, due to technological regression in traditional agriculture and modest progress in commercial agriculture. Since the levels of efficiency are similar, the same patient is repeated by the TFP indices. This result highlights the policy dilemma of the trade-off between efficiency and equity objectives.

A framework for revitalisation of rural education and training systems in sub-Saharan Africa: Strengthening the human resource base for food security and sustainable livelihoods

Recent studies of the current state of rural education and training (RET) systems in sub-Saharan Africa have assessed their ability to provide for the learning needs essential for more knowledgeable and productive small-scale rural households. These are most necessary if the endemic causes of rural poverty (poor nutrition, lack of sustainable livelihoods, etc.) are to be overcome. A brief historical background and analysis of the major current constraints to improvement in the sector are discussed. Paramount among those factors leading to its present 'malaise' is the lack of a whole-systems perspective and the absence of any coherent policy framework in most countries. There is evidence of some recent innovations, both in the public sector and through the work of non-governmental organisations (NGOs), civil society organisations (CSOs) and other private bodies. These provide hope of a new sense of direction that could lead towards meaningful 'revitalisation' of the sector. A suggested framework offers 10 key steps which, it is argued, could largely be achieved with modest internal resources and very little external support, provided that the necessary leadership and managerial capacities are in place. (C) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Rapeseed cytoplasm gives advantage in wild relatives and complicates genetically modified crop biocontainment

Biocontainment methods for genetically modified crops closest to commercial reality (chloroplast transformation, male sterility) would be compromised (in absolute terms) by seed-mediated gene flow leading to chloroplast capture. Even in these circumstances, however, it can be argued that biocontainment still represses transgene movement, with the efficacy depending on the relative frequency of seed-and pollen-mediated gene flow. In this study, we screened for crop-specific chloroplast markers from rapeseed (Brassica napus) amongst sympatric and allopatric populations of wild B. oleracea in natural cliff-top populations and B. rapa in riverside and weedy populations. We found only modest crop chloroplast presence in wild B. oleracea and in weedy B. rapa, but a surprisingly high incidence in sympatric (but not in allopatric) riverside B. rapa populations. Chloroplast inheritance models indicate that elevated crop chloroplast acquisition is best explained if crop cytoplasm confers selective advantage in riverside B. rapa populations. Our results therefore imply that chloroplast transformation may slow transgene recruitment in two settings, but actually accelerate transgene spread in a third. This finding suggests that the appropriateness of chloroplast transformation for biocontainment policy depends on both context and geographical location.

Effect of sulphation on the oestrogen agonist activity of the phytoestrogens genistein and daidzein in MCF-7 human breast cancer cells

The phytoestrogens genistein, daidzein and the daidzein metabolite equol have been shown previously to possess oestrogen agonist activity. However, following consumption of soya diets, they are found in the body not only as aglycones but also as metabolites conjugated at their 4'- and 7-hydroxyl groups with sulphate. This paper describes the effects of monosulphation on the oestrogen agonist properties of these three phytoestrogens in MCF-7 human breast cancer cells in terms of their relative ability to compete with [H-3]oestradiol for binding to oestrogen receptor (ER), to induce a stably transfected oestrogen-responsive reporter gene (ERE-CAT) and to stimulate cell growth. In no case did sulphation abolish activity. The 4'-sulphadon of genistein reduced oestrogen agonist activity to a small extent in whole-cell assays but increased the relative binding affinity to ER. The 7-sulphation of genistein, and also of equol, reduced oestrogen agonist activity substantially in all assays. By contrast, the position of monosulphation of daidzein acted in an opposing manner on oestrogen agonist activity. Sulphation at the 4'-position of daidzein resulted in a modest reduction in oestrogen agonist activity but sulphation of daidzein at the 7-position resulted in an increase in oestrogen agonist activity. Molecular modelling and docking studies suggested that the inverse effects of sulphation could be explained by the binding of daidzein into the ligand-binding domain of the ER in the opposite orientation compared with genistein and equol. This is the first report of sulphation enhancing activity of an isoflavone and inverse effects of sulphation between individual phytoestrogens.

Educational and psychosocial programmes for adolescents with diabetes: approaches, outcomes and cost-effectiveness

Diabetes incurs heavy personal and health system costs. Self-management is required if complications are to be avoided. Adolescents face particular challenges as they learn to take responsibility for their diabetes. A systematic review of educational and psychosocial programmes for adolescents with diabetes was undertaken. This aimed to: identify and categorise the types of programmes that have been evaluated; assess the cost-effectiveness of interventions; identify areas where further research is required. Sixty-two papers were identified and Subjected to a narrative review. Generic programmes focus on knowledge/skills, psychosocial issues, and behaviour/self-management. They result in modest improvements across a range of outcomes but improvements are often not sustained, suggesting a need for continuous support, possibly integrated into normal care. In-hospital education at diagnosis confers few advantages over home treatment. The greatest returns may be obtained by targeting poorly controlled individuals. Few studies addressed resourcing issues and robust cost-effectiveness appraisals are required to identify interventions that generate the greatest returns on expenditure. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Conserving marginal populations of the foodplant (Impatiens noli-tangere) of an endangered moth (Eustroma reticulatum) in a changing climate

Impatiens noli-tangere is scarce in the UK and probably only native to the Lake District and Wales. It is the sole food plant for the endangered moth Eustroma reticulattum. Significant annual fluctuations in the size of I. noli-tangere populations endanger the continued presence of E. reticulatum in the UK. In this study, variation in population size was monitored across native populations of L noli-tangere in the English Lake District and Wales. In 1998, there was a crash in the population size of all metapopulations in the Lake District but not of those found in Wales. A molecular survey of the genetic affinities of samples in 1999 from both regions and a reference population from Switzerland was performed using AFLP and ISSR analyses. The consensus UPGMA dendrogram and a PCO scatter plot revealed clear differentiation between the populations of L noli-tangere in Wales and those in the Lake District. Most of the genetic variation in the UK (H-T= 0.064) was partitioned between (G(ST) = 0.455) rather than within (H-S = 0.034) regions, inferring little gene flow occurs between regions. There was similar bias towards differentiation between metapopulations in Wales, again consistent with low levels of interpopulation gene flow. This contrasts with far lower levels of differentiation in the Lake District which suggests modest rates of gene flow may occur between populations. It is concluded that in the event of local extinction of sites or populations, reintroductions should be restricted to samples collected from the same region. We then surveyed climatic variables to identify those most likely to cause local extinctions. Climatic correlates of population size were sought from two Lake District metapopulations situated close to a meteorological station. A combination of three climatic variables common to both sites explained 81-84% of the variation in plant number between 1990 and 2001. Projected trends for these climatic variables were used in a Monte Carlo simulation which suggested an increased risk of I. noli-tangere population crashes by 2050 at Coniston Water. but not at Derwentwater. Implications of these findings for practical conservation strategies are explored. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Helices, chirality and interpenetration: the versatility and remarkable interconversion of silver-copper cyanide frameworks

The structural transformations between cesium silver-copper cyanides under modest conditions, both in solution and in the solid state, are described. Three new cesium silver(I) copper(I) cyanides with three-dimensional (3-D) framework structures were prepared as single crystals from a one-pot reaction initially heated under hydrothermal conditions. The first product to appear, Cs3Ag2Cu3(CN)(8) (I), when left in contact with the supernatant produced CsAgCu(CN)(3) (II) and CsAgCu(CN)(3)center dot 1/3H(2)O (III) over a few months via a series of thermodynamically controlled cascade reactions. Crystals of the hydrate (III) can be dehydrated to polycrystalline CsAgCu(CN)(3) (II) on heating at 100 degrees C in a remarkable solid-state transformation involving substantial breaking and reconnection of metal-cyanide linkages. Astonishingly, the conversion between the two known polymorphs of CsAg2Cu(CN)(4), which also involves a major change in connectivity and topology, occurs at 180 degrees C as a single-crystal to single-crystal transformation. Structural features of note in these materials include the presence of helical copper-cyanide chains in (I) and (II), which in the latter compound produce a chiral material. In (II) and (III), the silver-copper cyanide networks are both self- and interpenetrating, features also seen in the known polymorphs of CsAg2Cu(CN)(4).

An HMV mapping study of a pulsating jet system

A new system for the generation of hydrodynamic modulated voltammetry (HMV) is presented. This system consists of an oscillating jet produced through the mechanical vibration of a large diaphragm. The structure of the cell is such that a relatively small vibration is transferred to a large fluid flow at the jet outlet. Positioning of an electrode (Pt, 0.5 mm or 25 mu m diameter) over the exit of this jet enables the detection of the modulated flow of liquid. While this flow creates modest mass transfer rates (time averaged similar to 0.015 cm s(-1)) it can also be used to create a HMV system where a 'lock-in' approach is adopted to investigate the redox chemistry in question. This is demonstrated for the Fe(CN)(6)(3-/4-) redox system. Here 'lock-in' to the modulated hydrodynamic signal is achieved through the deployment of bespoke software. The apparatus and procedure is shown to produce a simple and efficient way to obtain the desired signal. In addition the spatial variation of the HMV signal, phase correction and time averaged current with respect to the jet orifice is presented. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

An experimental comparison between rival theories of rapid automatized naming performance and its relationship to reading

Two studies investigated the degree to which the relationship between rapid automatized naming (RAN) performance and reading development is driven by shared phonological processes. Study 1 assessed RAN, phonological awareness, and reading performance in 1010 7- to -10 year-olds. Results showed that RAN deficits occurred in the absence of phonological awareness deficits. These were accompanied by modest reading delays. In structural equation modeling, solutions where RAN was subsumed within a phonological processing factor did not provide a good fit to the data, suggesting that processes outside phonology may drive RAN performance and its association with reading. Study 2 investigated Kail’s proposal that speed of processing underlies this relationship. Children with single RAN deficits showed slower speed of processing than did closely matched controls performing normally on RAN. However, regression analysis revealed that RAN made a unique contribution to reading even after accounting for processing speed. Theoretical implications are discussed.

The challenges for molecular nutrition research 1: linking genotype to healthy nutrition

Nutrition science finds itself at a major crossroad. On the one hand we can continue the current path, which has resulted in some substantial advances, but also many conflicting messages which impair the trust of the general population, especially those who are motivated to improve their health through diet. The other road is uncharted and is being built over the many exciting new developments in life sciences. This new era of nutrition recognizes the complex relation between the health of the individual, its genome, and the life-long dietary exposure, and has lead to the realisation that nutrition is essentially a gene - environment interaction science. This review on the relation between genotype, diet and health is the first of a series dealing with the major challenges in molecular nutrition, analyzing the foundations of nutrition research. With the unravelling of the human genome and the linking of its variability to a multitude of phenotypes from " healthy'' to an enormously complex range of predispositions, the dietary modulation of these propensities has become an area of active research. Classical genetic approaches applied so far in medical genetics have steered away from incorporating dietary effects in their models and paradoxically, most genetic studies analyzing diet-associated phenotypes and diseases simply ignore diet. Yet, a modest but increasing number of studies are accounting for diet as a modulator of genetic associations. These range from observational cohorts to intervention studies with prospectively selected genotypes. New statistical and bioinformatics approaches are becoming available to aid in design and evaluation of these studies. This review discusses the various approaches used and provides concrete recommendations for future research.

Long-term monounsaturated fatty acid diets reduce platelet aggregation in healthy young subjects

The aim of the present study was to compare the response of a range of atherogenic and thrombogenic risk markers to two dietary levels of saturated fatty acid (SFA) substitution with monounsaturated fatty acids (MUFA) in students living in a university hall of residence. Although the benefits of such diets have been reported for plasma lipoproteins in high-risk groups, more needs to be known about effects of more modest SFA-MUFA substitutions over the long term and in young healthy adults. In a parallel design over 16 weeks, fifty-one healthy young subjects were randomised to one of two diets: (1) a moderate-MUFA diet in which 16 g dietary SFA/100 g total fatty acids were substituted with MUFA (n 25); (2) a high-MUFA diet in which 33 g dietary SFA/100 g total fatty acids were substituted with MUFA (n 26). All subjects followed an 8-week run-in diet (reference diet), with a fatty acid composition close to the UK average values. There were no differences in plasma lipid responses between the two diets over 16 weeks of the study with similar reductions in total cholesterol (P<0.001) and LDL-cholesterol (P<0.01) in both groups; a small but significant reduction in HDL-cholesterol was also observed in both groups (P<0.01). Platelet responses to ADP (P<0.01) and arachidonic acid (P<0.05) differed with time on the two diets; at 16 weeks, platelet aggregatory response to ADP was significantly lower on the high-MUFA than the moderate-MUFA (P<0.01) diet; ADP responses were also significantly lower within this group at 8 (P< 0.05) and 16 (P< 0.01) weeks compared with baseline. There were no differences in fasting factor VII activity (factors VIII and VIIag), fibrinogen concentration or tissue-type plasminogen activator activity between the diets. There were no differences in postprandial factor VIII responses to a standard meal (area under the curve) between the diets after 16 weeks, but postprandial factor VIII response was lower than on the high-MUFA diet compared with baseline (P<0.01). In conclusion, a high-MUFA diet sustains potentially beneficial effects on platelet aggregation and postprandial activation of factor VII. Moderate or high substitution of MUFA for SFA achieves similar reductions in fasting blood lipids in young healthy subjects.