Integrated sensitivity analysis, calibration, and uncertainty propagation analysis approaches for supporting hydrological modeling

The successful performance of a hydrological model is usually challenged by the quality of the sensitivity analysis, calibration and uncertainty analysis carried out in the modeling exercise and subsequent simulation results. This is especially important under changing climatic conditions where there are more uncertainties associated with climate models and downscaling processes that increase the complexities of the hydrological modeling system. In response to these challenges and to improve the performance of the hydrological models under changing climatic conditions, this research proposed five new methods for supporting hydrological modeling. First, a design of experiment aided sensitivity analysis and parameterization (DOE-SAP) method was proposed to investigate the significant parameters and provide more reliable sensitivity analysis for improving parameterization during hydrological modeling. The better calibration results along with the advanced sensitivity analysis for significant parameters and their interactions were achieved in the case study. Second, a comprehensive uncertainty evaluation scheme was developed to evaluate three uncertainty analysis methods, the sequential uncertainty fitting version 2 (SUFI-2), generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) and Parameter solution (ParaSol) methods. The results showed that the SUFI-2 performed better than the other two methods based on calibration and uncertainty analysis results. The proposed evaluation scheme demonstrated that it is capable of selecting the most suitable uncertainty method for case studies. Third, a novel sequential multi-criteria based calibration and uncertainty analysis (SMC-CUA) method was proposed to improve the efficiency of calibration and uncertainty analysis and control the phenomenon of equifinality. The results showed that the SMC-CUA method was able to provide better uncertainty analysis results with high computational efficiency compared to the SUFI-2 and GLUE methods and control parameter uncertainty and the equifinality effect without sacrificing simulation performance. Fourth, an innovative response based statistical evaluation method (RESEM) was proposed for estimating the uncertainty propagated effects and providing long-term prediction for hydrological responses under changing climatic conditions. By using RESEM, the uncertainty propagated from statistical downscaling to hydrological modeling can be evaluated. Fifth, an integrated simulation-based evaluation system for uncertainty propagation analysis (ISES-UPA) was proposed for investigating the effects and contributions of different uncertainty components to the total propagated uncertainty from statistical downscaling. Using ISES-UPA, the uncertainty from statistical downscaling, uncertainty from hydrological modeling, and the total uncertainty from two uncertainty sources can be compared and quantified. The feasibility of all the methods has been tested using hypothetical and real-world case studies. The proposed methods can also be integrated as a hydrological modeling system to better support hydrological studies under changing climatic conditions. The results from the proposed integrated hydrological modeling system can be used as scientific references for decision makers to reduce the potential risk of damages caused by extreme events for long-term water resource management and planning.

Investigating output accuracy for a discrete event simulation model and an agent based simulation model

In this paper, we investigate output accuracy for a Discrete Event Simulation (DES) model and Agent Based Simulation (ABS) model. The purpose of this investigation is to find out which of these simulation techniques is the best one for modelling human reactive behaviour in the retail sector. In order to study the output accuracy in both models, we have carried out a validation experiment in which we compared the results from our simulation models to the performance of a real system. Our experiment was carried out using a large UK department store as a case study. We had to determine an efficient implementation of management policy in the store’s fitting room using DES and ABS. Overall, we have found that both simulation models were a good representation of the real system when modelling human reactive behaviour.

Gene Expression Complex Networks: Synthesis, Identification, and Analysis

Thanks to recent advances in molecular biology, allied to an ever increasing amount of experimental data, the functional state of thousands of genes can now be extracted simultaneously by using methods such as cDNA microarrays and RNA-Seq. Particularly important related investigations are the modeling and identification of gene regulatory networks from expression data sets. Such a knowledge is fundamental for many applications, such as disease treatment, therapeutic intervention strategies and drugs design, as well as for planning high-throughput new experiments. Methods have been developed for gene networks modeling and identification from expression profiles. However, an important open problem regards how to validate such approaches and its results. This work presents an objective approach for validation of gene network modeling and identification which comprises the following three main aspects: (1) Artificial Gene Networks (AGNs) model generation through theoretical models of complex networks, which is used to simulate temporal expression data; (2) a computational method for gene network identification from the simulated data, which is founded on a feature selection approach where a target gene is fixed and the expression profile is observed for all other genes in order to identify a relevant subset of predictors; and (3) validation of the identified AGN-based network through comparison with the original network. The proposed framework allows several types of AGNs to be generated and used in order to simulate temporal expression data. The results of the network identification method can then be compared to the original network in order to estimate its properties and accuracy. Some of the most important theoretical models of complex networks have been assessed: the uniformly-random Erdos-Renyi (ER), the small-world Watts-Strogatz (WS), the scale-free Barabasi-Albert (BA), and geographical networks (GG). The experimental results indicate that the inference method was sensitive to average degree k variation, decreasing its network recovery rate with the increase of k. The signal size was important for the inference method to get better accuracy in the network identification rate, presenting very good results with small expression profiles. However, the adopted inference method was not sensible to recognize distinct structures of interaction among genes, presenting a similar behavior when applied to different network topologies. In summary, the proposed framework, though simple, was adequate for the validation of the inferred networks by identifying some properties of the evaluated method, which can be extended to other inference methods.

Historical carbon emissions and uptake from the agricultural frontier of the Brazilian Amazon

Tropical ecosystems play a large and complex role in the global carbon cycle. Clearing of natural ecosystems for agriculture leads to large pulses of CO(2) to the atmosphere from terrestrial biomass. Concurrently, the remaining intact ecosystems, especially tropical forests, may be sequestering a large amount of carbon from the atmosphere in response to global environmental changes including climate changes and an increase in atmospheric CO(2). Here we use an approach that integrates census-based historical land use reconstructions, remote-sensing-based contemporary land use change analyses, and simulation modeling of terrestrial biogeochemistry to estimate the net carbon balance over the period 1901-2006 for the state of Mato Grosso, Brazil, which is one of the most rapidly changing agricultural frontiers in the world. By the end of this period, we estimate that of the state`s 925 225 km(2), 221 092 km(2) have been converted to pastures and 89 533 km(2) have been converted to croplands, with forest-to-pasture conversions being the dominant land use trajectory but with recent transitions to croplands increasing rapidly in the last decade. These conversions have led to a cumulative release of 4.8 Pg C to the atmosphere, with similar to 80% from forest clearing and 20% from the clearing of cerrado. Over the same period, we estimate that the residual undisturbed ecosystems accumulated 0.3 Pg C in response to CO2 fertilization. Therefore, the net emissions of carbon from Mato Grosso over this period were 4.5 Pg C. Net carbon emissions from Mato Grosso since 2000 averaged 146 Tg C/yr, on the order of Brazil`s fossil fuel emissions during this period. These emissions were associated with the expansion of croplands to grow soybeans. While alternative management regimes in croplands, including tillage, fertilization, and cropping patterns promote carbon storage in ecosystems, they remain a small portion of the net carbon balance for the region. This detailed accounting of a region`s carbon balance is the type of foundation analysis needed by the new United Nations Collaborative Programmme for Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD).

A novel approach for Modeling the steady-state VSC-based multiline FACTS controllers and their operational constraints

A new, simple approach for modeling and assessing the operation and response of the multiline voltage-source controller (VSC)-based flexible ac transmission system controllers, namely the generalized interline power-flow controller (GIPFC) and the interline power-flow controller (IPFC), is presented in this paper. The model and the analysis developed are based on the converters` power balance method which makes use of the d-q orthogonal coordinates to thereafter present a direct solution for these controllers through a quadratic equation. The main constraints and limitations that such devices present while controlling the two independent ac systems considered, will also be evaluated. In order to examine and validate the steady-state model initially proposed, a phase-shift VSC-based GIPFC was also built in the Alternate Transients Program program whose results are also included in this paper. Where applicable, a comparative evaluation between the GIPFC and the IPFC is also presented.

Evaluation of Characterization and Performance Modeling of Cementitiously Stabilized Layers in the Mechanistic-Empirical Pavement Design Guide

Cementitious stabilization of aggregates and soils is an effective technique to increase the stiffness of base and subbase layers. Furthermore, cementitious bases can improve the fatigue behavior of asphalt surface layers and subgrade rutting over the short and long term. However, it can lead to additional distresses such as shrinkage and fatigue in the stabilized layers. Extensive research has tested these materials experimentally and characterized them; however, very little of this research attempts to correlate the mechanical properties of the stabilized layers with their performance. The Mechanistic Empirical Pavement Design Guide (MEPDG) provides a promising theoretical framework for the modeling of pavements containing cementitiously stabilized materials (CSMs). However, significant improvements are needed to bring the modeling of semirigid pavements in MEPDG to the same level as that of flexible and rigid pavements. Furthermore, the MEPDG does not model CSMs in a manner similar to those for hot-mix asphalt or portland cement concrete materials. As a result, performance gains from stabilized layers are difficult to assess using the MEPDG. The current characterization of CSMs was evaluated and issues with CSM modeling and characterization in the MEPDG were discussed. Addressing these issues will help designers quantify the benefits of stabilization for pavement service life.

Modern scientific methods and their potential in wastewater science and technology

Application of novel analytical and investigative methods such as fluorescence in situ hybridization, confocal laser scanning microscopy (CLSM), microelectrodes and advanced numerical simulation has led to new insights into micro-and macroscopic processes in bioreactors. However, the question is still open whether or not these new findings and the subsequent gain of knowledge are of significant practical relevance and if so, where and how. To find suitable answers it is necessary for engineers to know what can be expected by applying these modern analytical tools. Similarly, scientists could benefit significantly from an intensive dialogue with engineers in order to find out about practical problems and conditions existing in wastewater treatment systems. In this paper, an attempt is made to help bridge the gap between science and engineering in biological wastewater treatment. We provide an overview of recently developed methods in microbiology and in mathematical modeling and numerical simulation. A questionnaire is presented which may help generate a platform from which further technical and scientific developments can be accomplished. Both the paper and the questionnaire are aimed at encouraging scientists and engineers to enter into an intensive, mutually beneficial dialogue. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Simulation of interface states effect on the scanning capacitance microscopy measurement of p-n junctions

A two-dimensional numerical simulation model of interface states in scanning capacitance microscopy (SCM) measurements of p-n junctions is presented-In the model, amphoteric interface states with two transition energies in the Si band gap are represented as fixed charges to account for their behavior in SCM measurements. The interface states are shown to cause a stretch-out-and a parallel shift of the capacitance-voltage characteristics in the depletion. and neutral regions of p-n junctions, respectively. This explains the discrepancy between - the SCM measurement and simulation near p-n junctions, and thus modeling interface states is crucial for SCM dopant profiling of p-n junctions. (C) 2002 American Institute of Physics.

Modeling the Diffusion of Energy Performance Contracting

The Portuguese Energy Policy considers the development of a commercially viable and competitive market for energy performance contracting (EPC) as a main mechanism to achieve the objectives of energy efficiency improvement. This paper proposes a study to investigate how to achieve widespread adoption of energy performance contracting by means of system dynamics modelling and simulation. To explore and gather insights on this question, a system dynamics model representing the system of the Portuguese EPC market at industry level will be created. The simulation of that model will provide a helpful basis for analysing and explaining the development of key variables, and accelerating learning on the managerial, organizational and political adaptation processes that foster the diffusion of EPC adoption. The first phase of this research project aims at identifying and analysing the key factors and critical cause-effect relations that drive the adoption of EPC. With this purpose, a qualitative content analysis on relevant documents was performed and a set of interviews was conducted. That data was analysed to capture the critical variables and its interrelation to formulate a preliminary representation of the system structure as stock and flow diagrams.

A simulation model for the IEEE 802.15.4 protocol: delay/throughput evaluation of the GTS mechanism

The IEEE 802.15.4 protocol has the ability to support time-sensitive Wireless Sensor Network (WSN) applications due to the Guaranteed Time Slot (GTS) Medium Access Control mechanism. Recently, several analytical and simulation models of the IEEE 802.15.4 protocol have been proposed. Nevertheless, currently available simulation models for this protocol are both inaccurate and incomplete, and in particular they do not support the GTS mechanism. In this paper, we propose an accurate OPNET simulation model, with focus on the implementation of the GTS mechanism. The motivation that has driven this work is the validation of the Network Calculus based analytical model of the GTS mechanism that has been previously proposed and to compare the performance evaluation of the protocol as given by the two alternative approaches. Therefore, in this paper we contribute an accurate OPNET model for the IEEE 802.15.4 protocol. Additionally, and probably more importantly, based on the simulation model we propose a novel methodology to tune the protocol parameters such that a better performance of the protocol can be guaranteed, both concerning maximizing the throughput of the allocated GTS as well as concerning minimizing frame delay.

Simulation of a-Si PV system grid connected by boost and inverter

This paper is about a PV system connected to the electric grid by power electronic converters, using classical PI controller. The modelling for the converters emulates the association of a DC-DC boost with a two-level power inverter (TwLI) or three-level power inverter (ThLI) in order to follow the performance of a testing experimental system. Pulse width modulation (PWMo) by sliding mode control (SMCo) associated with space vector modulation (SVMo) is applied to the boost and the inverter. The PV system is described by the five parameters equivalent circuit. Parameter identification and simulation studies are performed for comparison with the testing experimental system.

Robot Manipulator Systems: Analysis and Control

Manipulator systems are rather complex and highly nonlinear which makes difficult their analysis and control. Classic system theory is veil known, however it is inadequate in the presence of strong nonlinear dynamics. Nonlinear controllers produce good results [1] and work has been done e. g. relating the manipulator nonlinear dynamics with frequency response [2–5]. Nevertheless, given the complexity of the problem, systematic methods which permit to draw conclusions about stability, imperfect modelling effects, compensation requirements, etc. are still lacking. In section 2 we start by analysing the variation of the poles and zeros of the descriptive transfer functions of a robot manipulator in order to motivate the development of more robust (and computationally efficient) control algorithms. Based on this analysis a new multirate controller which is an improvement of the well known “computed torque controller” [6] is announced in section 3. Some research in this area was done by Neuman [7,8] showing tbat better robustness is possible if the basic controller structure is modified. The present study stems from those ideas, and attempts to give a systematic treatment, which results in easy to use standard engineering tools. Finally, in section 4 conclusions are presented.

A simulation model for lean, agile, resilient and green supply chain management: practices and interoperability assessment

Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Engenharia e Gestão Industrial

Current Challenges in Modeling Cellular Metabolism

Mathematical and computational models play an essential role in understanding the cellular metabolism. They are used as platforms to integrate current knowledge on a biological system and to systematically test and predict the effect of manipulations to such systems. The recent advances in genome sequencing techniques have facilitated the reconstruction of genome-scale metabolic networks for a wide variety of organisms from microbes to human cells. These models have been successfully used in multiple biotechnological applications. Despite these advancements, modeling cellular metabolism still presents many challenges. The aim of this Research Topic is not only to expose and consolidate the state-of-the-art in metabolic modeling approaches, but also to push this frontier beyond the current edge through the introduction of innovative solutions. The articles presented in this e-book address some of the main challenges in the field, including the integration of different modeling formalisms, the integration of heterogeneous data sources into metabolic models, explicit representation of other biological processes during phenotype simulation, and standardization efforts in the representation of metabolic models and simulation results.

Treeline and climate change : analyzing and modeling patterns and shifts in the Swiss Alps

Summary: Global warming has led to an average earth surface temperature increase of about 0.7 °C in the 20th century, according to the 2007 IPCC report. In Switzerland, the temperature increase in the same period was even higher: 1.3 °C in the Northern Alps anal 1.7 °C in the Southern Alps. The impacts of this warming on ecosystems aspecially on climatically sensitive systems like the treeline ecotone -are already visible today. Alpine treeline species show increased growth rates, more establishment of young trees in forest gaps is observed in many locations and treelines are migrating upwards. With the forecasted warming, this globally visible phenomenon is expected to continue. This PhD thesis aimed to develop a set of methods and models to investigate current and future climatic treeline positions and treeline shifts in the Swiss Alps in a spatial context. The focus was therefore on: 1) the quantification of current treeline dynamics and its potential causes, 2) the evaluation and improvement of temperaturebased treeline indicators and 3) the spatial analysis and projection of past, current and future climatic treeline positions and their respective elevational shifts. The methods used involved a combination of field temperature measurements, statistical modeling and spatial modeling in a geographical information system. To determine treeline shifts and assign the respective drivers, neighborhood relationships between forest patches were analyzed using moving window algorithms. Time series regression modeling was used in the development of an air-to-soil temperature transfer model to calculate thermal treeline indicators. The indicators were then applied spatially to delineate the climatic treeline, based on interpolated temperature data. Observation of recent forest dynamics in the Swiss treeline ecotone showed that changes were mainly due to forest in-growth, but also partly to upward attitudinal shifts. The recent reduction in agricultural land-use was found to be the dominant driver of these changes. Climate-driven changes were identified only at the uppermost limits of the treeline ecotone. Seasonal mean temperature indicators were found to be the best for predicting climatic treelines. Applying dynamic seasonal delimitations and the air-to-soil temperature transfer model improved the indicators' applicability for spatial modeling. Reproducing the climatic treelines of the past 45 years revealed regionally different attitudinal shifts, the largest being located near the highest mountain mass. Modeling climatic treelines based on two IPCC climate warming scenarios predicted major shifts in treeline altitude. However, the currently-observed treeline is not expected to reach this limit easily, due to lagged reaction, possible climate feedback effects and other limiting factors. Résumé: Selon le rapport 2007 de l'IPCC, le réchauffement global a induit une augmentation de la température terrestre de 0.7 °C en moyenne au cours du 20e siècle. En Suisse, l'augmentation durant la même période a été plus importante: 1.3 °C dans les Alpes du nord et 1.7 °C dans les Alpes du sud. Les impacts de ce réchauffement sur les écosystèmes - en particuliers les systèmes sensibles comme l'écotone de la limite des arbres - sont déjà visibles aujourd'hui. Les espèces de la limite alpine des forêts ont des taux de croissance plus forts, on observe en de nombreux endroits un accroissement du nombre de jeunes arbres s'établissant dans les trouées et la limite des arbres migre vers le haut. Compte tenu du réchauffement prévu, on s'attend à ce que ce phénomène, visible globalement, persiste. Cette thèse de doctorat visait à développer un jeu de méthodes et de modèles pour étudier dans un contexte spatial la position présente et future de la limite climatique des arbres, ainsi que ses déplacements, au sein des Alpes suisses. L'étude s'est donc focalisée sur: 1) la quantification de la dynamique actuelle de la limite des arbres et ses causes potentielles, 2) l'évaluation et l'amélioration des indicateurs, basés sur la température, pour la limite des arbres et 3) l'analyse spatiale et la projection de la position climatique passée, présente et future de la limite des arbres et des déplacements altitudinaux de cette position. Les méthodes utilisées sont une combinaison de mesures de température sur le terrain, de modélisation statistique et de la modélisation spatiale à l'aide d'un système d'information géographique. Les relations de voisinage entre parcelles de forêt ont été analysées à l'aide d'algorithmes utilisant des fenêtres mobiles, afin de mesurer les déplacements de la limite des arbres et déterminer leurs causes. Un modèle de transfert de température air-sol, basé sur les modèles de régression sur séries temporelles, a été développé pour calculer des indicateurs thermiques de la limite des arbres. Les indicateurs ont ensuite été appliqués spatialement pour délimiter la limite climatique des arbres, sur la base de données de températures interpolées. L'observation de la dynamique forestière récente dans l'écotone de la limite des arbres en Suisse a montré que les changements étaient principalement dus à la fermeture des trouées, mais aussi en partie à des déplacements vers des altitudes plus élevées. Il a été montré que la récente déprise agricole était la cause principale de ces changements. Des changements dus au climat n'ont été identifiés qu'aux limites supérieures de l'écotone de la limite des arbres. Les indicateurs de température moyenne saisonnière se sont avérés le mieux convenir pour prédire la limite climatique des arbres. L'application de limites dynamiques saisonnières et du modèle de transfert de température air-sol a amélioré l'applicabilité des indicateurs pour la modélisation spatiale. La reproduction des limites climatiques des arbres durant ces 45 dernières années a mis en évidence des changements d'altitude différents selon les régions, les plus importants étant situés près du plus haut massif montagneux. La modélisation des limites climatiques des arbres d'après deux scénarios de réchauffement climatique de l'IPCC a prédit des changements majeurs de l'altitude de la limite des arbres. Toutefois, l'on ne s'attend pas à ce que la limite des arbres actuellement observée atteigne cette limite facilement, en raison du délai de réaction, d'effets rétroactifs du climat et d'autres facteurs limitants.