Is your vision consistent? A method for checking, based on scenario concepts

Common sense tells us that the future is an essential element in any strategy. In addition, there is a good deal of literature on scenario planning, which is an important tool in considering the future in terms of strategy. However, in many organizations there is serious resistance to the development of scenarios, and they are not broadly implemented by companies. But even organizations that do not rely heavily on the development of scenarios do, in fact, construct visions to guide their strategies. But it might be asked, what happens when this vision is not consistent with the future? To address this problem, the present article proposes a method for checking the content and consistency of an organization`s vision of the future, no matter how it was conceived. The proposed method is grounded on theoretical concepts from the field of future studies, which are described in this article. This study was motivated by the search for developing new ways of improving and using scenario techniques as a method for making strategic decisions. The method was then tested on a company in the field of information technology in order to check its operational feasibility. The test showed that the proposed method is, in fact, operationally feasible and was capable of analyzing the vision of the company being studied, indicating both its shortcomings and points of inconsistency. (C) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Spatial aspects of trade liberalization in Colombia: A general equilibrium approach

This paper offers some preliminary steps in the marriage of some of the theoretical foundations of new economic geography with spatial computable general equilibrium models. Modelling the spatial economy of Colombia using the traditional assumptions of computable general equilibrium (CGE) models makes little sense when one territorial unit, Bogota, accounts for over one quarter of GDP and where transportation costs are high and accessibility low compared to European or North American standards. Hence, handling market imperfections becomes imperative as does the need to address internal spatial issues from the perspective of Colombia`s increasing involvement with external markets. The paper builds on the Centro de Estudios de Economia Regional (CEER) model, a spatial CGE model of the Colombian economy; non-constant returns and non-iceberg transportation costs are introduced and some simulation exercises carried out. The results confirm the asymmetric impacts that trade liberalization has on a spatial economy in which one region, Bogota, is able to more fully exploit scale economies vis--vis the rest of Colombia. The analysis also reveals the importance of different hypotheses on factor mobility and the role of price effects to better understand the consequences of trade opening in a developing economy.

The stability of the equilibrium outcomes in the admission games induced by stable matching rules

A stable matching rule is used as the outcome function for the Admission game where colleges behave straightforwardly and the students` strategies are given by their preferences over the colleges. We show that the college-optimal stable matching rule implements the set of stable matchings via the Nash equilibrium (NE) concept. For any other stable matching rule the strategic behavior of the students may lead to outcomes that are not stable under the true preferences. We then introduce uncertainty about the matching selected and prove that the natural solution concept is that of NE in the strong sense. A general result shows that the random stable matching rule, as well as any stable matching rule, implements the set of stable matchings via NE in the strong sense. Precise answers are given to the strategic questions raised.

Regional Effects of Port Infrastructure: A Spatial CGE Application to Brazil

This article attempts to elucidate one of the mechanisms that link trade barriers, in the form of port costs, and subsequent growth and regional inequality. Prior attention has focused on inland or link costs, but port costs can be considered as a further barrier to enhancing trade liberalization and growth. In contrast to a highway link, congestion at a port may have severe impacts that are spread over space and time whereas highway link congestion may be resolved within several hours. Since a port is part of the transportation network, any congestion/disruption is likely to ripple throughout the hinterland. In this sense, it is important to model properly the role nodal components play in the context of spatial models and international trade. In this article, a spatial computable general equilibrium (CGE) model that is integrated to a transport network system is presented to simulate the impacts of increases in port efficiency in Brazil. The role of ports of entry and ports of exit are explicitly considered to grasp the holistic picture in an integrated interregional system. Measures of efficiency for different port locations are incorporated in the calibration of the model and used as the benchmark in our simulations. Three scenarios are evaluated: (1) an overall increase in port efficiency in Brazil to achieve international standards; (2) efficiency gains associated with decentralization in port management in Brazil; and (3) regionally differentiated increases in port efficiency to reach the boundary of the national efficiency frontier.

Identification of "pathologs" (disease-related genes) from the RIKEN mouse cDNA dataset using human curation plus FACTS, a new biological information extraction system

Background: A major goal in the post-genomic era is to identify and characterise disease susceptibility genes and to apply this knowledge to disease prevention and treatment. Rodents and humans have remarkably similar genomes and share closely related biochemical, physiological and pathological pathways. In this work we utilised the latest information on the mouse transcriptome as revealed by the RIKEN FANTOM2 project to identify novel human disease-related candidate genes. We define a new term patholog to mean a homolog of a human disease-related gene encoding a product ( transcript, anti-sense or protein) potentially relevant to disease. Rather than just focus on Mendelian inheritance, we applied the analysis to all potential pathologs regardless of their inheritance pattern. Results: Bioinformatic analysis and human curation of 60,770 RIKEN full-length mouse cDNA clones produced 2,578 sequences that showed similarity ( 70 - 85% identity) to known human-disease genes. Using a newly developed biological information extraction and annotation tool ( FACTS) in parallel with human expert analysis of 17,051 MEDLINE scientific abstracts we identified 182 novel potential pathologs. Of these, 36 were identified by computational tools only, 49 by human expert analysis only and 97 by both methods. These pathologs were related to neoplastic ( 53%), hereditary ( 24%), immunological ( 5%), cardio-vascular (4%), or other (14%), disorders. Conclusions: Large scale genome projects continue to produce a vast amount of data with potential application to the study of human disease. For this potential to be realised we need intelligent strategies for data categorisation and the ability to link sequence data with relevant literature. This paper demonstrates the power of combining human expert annotation with FACTS, a newly developed bioinformatics tool, to identify novel pathologs from within large-scale mouse transcript datasets.

Galaxy threshing and the origin of intracluster stellar objects

We numerically investigate the dynamical evolution of non-nucleated dwarf elliptical/spiral galaxies (dE) and nucleated ones (dE,Ns) in clusters of galaxies in order to understand the origin of intracluster stellar objects, such as intracluster stars (ICSs), GCs (ICGCs), and ultracompact dwarfs (UCDs) recently discovered by all-object spectroscopic survey centred on the Fornax cluster of galaxies. We find that the outer stellar components of a nucleated dwarf are removed by the strong tidal field of the cluster, whereas the nucleus manages to survive as a result of its initially compact nature. The developed naked nucleus is found to have physical properties (e.g., size and mass) similar to those observed for UCDs. We also find that the UCD formation process, does depend on the radial density profile of the dark halo in the sense that UCDs are less likely to be formed from dwarfs embedded in dark matter halos with central 'cuspy' density profiles. Our simulations also suggest that very massive and compact stellar systems can be rapidly and efficiently formed in the central regions of dwarfs through the merging of smaller GCs. GCs initially in the outer part of dE and dE,Ns are found to be stripped to form ICGCs.

Tonal Modulation and Subjective Time

This work investigated listeners` sense of the temporal expression of tonal modulation. One experiment described the effects on retrospective reproductions of sudden and gradual modulations to close and distant keys. The results showed that modulations elicit time underestimations as an inverse function of interkey distances, with a major impact for sudden modulations. A proposed vectorial model - ""Expected Development Fraction"" (EDF) - describes the development of expectations when an interkey distance is traversed during a certain time interval. This expected development is longer than the perceived duration, leading to underestimation of the time.

Clarice Lispector - the hour of the star: the speech in the exhibition pamphlet

This work attempts to discuss, in the light of the French Analysis of the Discourse, how the concept of memory and heterogeneity in language actions can contribute to a reflection on information and documentation studies. Starting from cuttings of Clarice Lispector - the hour of the star exhibition pamphlet, accomplished in the second semester of 2007 by the Portuguese Language Museum (Luz train station, Sao Paulo), we interpreted the several voices that surround and sustain the subject and the sense.

Hormone replacement therapy and breast cancer: estimate of risk: Education debate

The risk of breast cancer arises from a combination of genetic susceptibility and environmental factors. Recent studies show that type and duration of use of hormone replacement therapy affect a women's risk of developing breast cancer.1-7 The women's health initiative trial was stopped early because of excess adverse cardiovascular events and invasive breast cancer with oestrogen and progestogen.6 The publicity increased public awareness of the risks of hormone replacement therapy, and this was heightened by the publication of the million women study.2 However, the recently published oestrogen only arm of the women's health initiative trial suggests that this formulation may reduce the risk of breast cancer.8 To help make sense of the often confusing information,9 women and clinicians need individual rather than population risk data. We have produced estimates that can be used to calculate individual risk for women living up to the age of 79 and suggest the risk

On Reciprocal Illumination and Consilience in Biogeography

Biogeography deals with the combined analysis of the spatial and temporal components of the evolutionary process. To this purpose, biogeographical analysis should consider two extra steps: a reciprocal illumination step, and a consilience step. Even if the traditional challenges of biogeography were successfully handled, the obtained hypothesis is not necessarily meaningful in biogeographical terms--it needs continuous test in the light of external hypotheses. For this reason, a concept analogous to Hennig`s reciprocal illumination is valuable, as well as a sort of biogeographical consilience in Whewell`s sense. Firstly, through the search for different classes of evidence, information useful to improve the hypothesis can be accessed via reciprocal illumination. Following, a more general hypothesis would arise through a consilience process, when the hypothesis explains phenomena not contemplated during its construction, as the distribution of other taxa or the existence (or absence) of fossils. This procedure aims to evaluate the robustness of biogeographical hypotheses as scientific theories. Such theories are reliable descriptions of how life changes its form both in space and time, putting historical biogeography close to Croizat`s statement of evolution as a three dimensional phenomenon.

The Gothic scene of international relations: ghosts, monsters, terror and the sublime after September 11

Accepting Furet’s claim that events acquire meaning and significance only in the context of narratives, this article argues that a particular type of international relations narrative has emerged with greater distinction after the traumatic experience of September 11: the gothic narrative. In a sense the political rhetoric of President Bush marks the latest example of America’s fine tradition in the gothic genre that began with Edgar Allan Poe and Nathaniel Hawthorne and extends through Henry James to Stephen King. His discourse of national security, it will be shown, assumes many of the predicates of gothic narratives. The gothic scenes evoked by Bush as much as Poe involve monsters and ghosts in tenebrous atmospheres that generate fear and anxiety, where terror is a pervasive tormentor of the senses. Poe’s narratives, for example, turn on encounters with dark, perverse, seemingly indomitable, forces often entombed in haunted houses. Similarly, Bush’s post-September 11 narratives play upon fears of terrorists and rogue states who are equally dark, perverse and indomitable forces. In both cases, ineffable and potently violent and cruel forces haunt and terrorise the civilised, human world.

Genetic basis of the formation and identity of type I and type II neurons in Drosophila embryos

The embryonic peripheral nervous system of Drosophila contains two main types of sensory neurons: type I neurons, which innervate external sense organs and chordotonal organs, and type II multidendritic neurons, Here, we analyse the origin of the difference between type I and type II in the case of the neurons that depend on the proneural genes of the achaete-scute complex (ASC), We show that, in Notch(-) embryos, the type I neurons are missing while type nr neurons are produced in excess, indicating that the type I/type II choice relies on Notch-mediated cell communication, In contrast, both type I and type II neurons are absent in numb(-) embryos and after ubiquitous expression of tramtrack, indicating that the activity of numb and the absence of tramtrack are required to produce both external sense organ and multidendritic neural fates, The analysis of string(-) embryos reveals that when the precursors are unable to divide they differentiate mostly into type II neurons, indicating that the type II is the default neuronal fate, We also report a new mutant phenotype where the ASC-dependent neurons are converted into-type II neurons, providing evidence for the existence of one or more genes required for maintaining the alternative (type I) fate, Our results suggest that the same mechanism of type I/type II specification may operate at a late step of the ASC-dependent lineages, when multidendritic neurons arise as siblings of the external sense organ neurons and, at an early step, when other multidendritic neurons precursors arise as siblings of external sense organ precursors.

Structure optimization combining soft-core interaction functions, the diffusion equation method, and molecular dynamics

Smoothing the potential energy surface for structure optimization is a general and commonly applied strategy. We propose a combination of soft-core potential energy functions and a variation of the diffusion equation method to smooth potential energy surfaces, which is applicable to complex systems such as protein structures; The performance of the method was demonstrated by comparison with simulated annealing using the refinement of the undecapeptide Cyclosporin A as a test case. Simulations were repeated many times using different initial conditions and structures since the methods are heuristic and results are only meaningful in a statistical sense.

The subcycled Newmark algorithm

The popular Newmark algorithm, used for implicit direct integration of structural dynamics, is extended by means of a nodal partition to permit use of different timesteps in different regions of a structural model. The algorithm developed has as a special case an explicit-explicit subcycling algorithm previously reported by Belytschko, Yen and Mullen. That algorithm has been shown, in the absence of damping or other energy dissipation, to exhibit instability over narrow timestep ranges that become narrower as the number of degrees of freedom increases, making them unlikely to be encountered in practice. The present algorithm avoids such instabilities in the case of a one to two timestep ratio (two subcycles), achieving unconditional stability in an exponential sense for a linear problem. However, with three or more subcycles, the trapezoidal rule exhibits stability that becomes conditional, falling towards that of the central difference method as the number of subcycles increases. Instabilities over narrow timestep ranges, that become narrower as the model size increases, also appear with three or more subcycles. However by moving the partition between timesteps one row of elements into the region suitable for integration with the larger timestep these the unstable timestep ranges become extremely narrow, even in simple systems with a few degrees of freedom. As well, accuracy is improved. Use of a version of the Newmark algorithm that dissipates high frequencies minimises or eliminates these narrow bands of instability. Viscous damping is also shown to remove these instabilities, at the expense of having more effect on the low frequency response.

Cell cycle model to describe animal cell size variation and lag between cell number and biomass dynamics

The use of cell numbers rather than mass to quantify the size of the biotic phase in animal cell cultures causes several problems. First, the cell size varies with growth conditions, thus yields expressed in terms of cell numbers cannot be used in the normal mass balance sense. Second, experience from microbial systems shows that cell number dynamics lag behind biomass dynamics. This work demonstrates that this lag phenomenon also occurs in animal cell culture. Both the lag phenomenon and the variation in cell size are explained using a simple model of the cell cycle. The basis for the model is that onset of DNA synthesis requires accumulation of G1 cyclins to a prescribed level. This requirement is translated into a requirement for a cell to reach a critical size before commencement of DNA synthesis. A slower gl-owing cell will spend more time in G1 before reaching the critical mass. In contrast, the period between onset of DNA synthesis and mitosis, tau(B), is fixed. The two parameters in the model, the critical size and tau(B), were determined from eight steady-state measurements of mean cell size in a continuous hybridoma culture. Using these parameters, it was possible to predict with reasonable accuracy the transient behavior in a separate shift-up culture, i.e., a culture where cells were transferred from a lean environment to a rich environment. The implications for analyzing experimental data for animal cell culture are discussed. (C) 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.