A recommendation system for predicting risks across multiple business process instances

This paper proposes a recommendation system that supports process participants in taking risk-informed decisions, with the goal of reducing risks that may arise during process execution. Risk reduction involves decreasing the likelihood and severity of a process fault from occurring. Given a business process exposed to risks, e.g. a financial process exposed to a risk of reputation loss, we enact this process and whenever a process participant needs to provide input to the process, e.g. by selecting the next task to execute or by filling out a form, we suggest to the participant the action to perform which minimizes the predicted process risk. Risks are predicted by traversing decision trees generated from the logs of past process executions, which consider process data, involved resources, task durations and other information elements like task frequencies. When applied in the context of multiple process instances running concurrently, a second technique is employed that uses integer linear programming to compute the optimal assignment of resources to tasks to be performed, in order to deal with the interplay between risks relative to different instances. The recommendation system has been implemented as a set of components on top of the YAWL BPM system and its effectiveness has been evaluated using a real-life scenario, in collaboration with risk analysts of a large insurance company. The results, based on a simulation of the real-life scenario and its comparison with the event data provided by the company, show that the process instances executed concurrently complete with significantly fewer faults and with lower fault severities, when the recommendations provided by our recommendation system are taken into account.

Power law distributions in entrepreneurship : implications for theory and research

A long-held assumption in entrepreneurship research is that normal (i.e., Gaussian) distributions characterize variables of interest for both theory and practice. We challenge this assumption by examining more than 12,000 nascent, young, and hyper-growth firms. Results reveal that variables which play central roles in resource-, cognition-, action-, and environment-based entrepreneurship theories exhibit highly skewed power law distributions, where a few outliers account for a disproportionate amount of the distribution's total output. Our results call for the development of new theory to explain and predict the mechanisms that generate these distributions and the outliers therein. We offer a research agenda, including a description of non-traditional methodological approaches, to answer this call.

Stress at the synapse : signal transduction mechanisms of adrenal steroids at neuronal membranes

As the key neuron-to-neuron interface, the synapse is involved in learning and memory, including traumatic memories during times of stress. However, the signal transduction mechanisms by which stress mediates its lasting effects on synapse transmission and on memory are not fully understood. A key component of the stress response is the increased secretion of adrenal steroids. Adrenal steroids (e.g., cortisol) bind to genomic mineralocorticoid and glucocorticoid receptors (gMRs and gGRs) in the cytosol. In addition, they may act through membrane receptors (mMRs and mGRs), and signal transduction through these receptors may allow for rapid modulation of synaptic transmission as well as modulation of membrane ion currents. mMRs increase synaptic and neuronal excitability; mechanisms include the facilitation of glutamate release through extracellular signal-regulated kinase signal transduction. In contrast, mGRs decrease synaptic and neuronal excitability by reducing calcium currents through N-methyl-D-aspartate receptors and voltage-gated calcium channels by way of protein kinase A- and G protein-dependent mechanisms. This body of functional data complements anatomical evidence localizing GRs to the postsynaptic membrane. Finally, accumulating data also suggest the possibility that mMRs and mGRs may show an inverted U-shaped dose response, whereby glutamatergic synaptic transmission is increased by low doses of corticosterone acting at mMRs and decreased by higher doses acting at mGRs. Thus, synaptic transmission is regulated by mMRs and mGRs, and part of the stress signaling response is a direct and bidirectional modulation of the synapse itself by adrenal steroids.

Developing and evaluating interventions that are applicable and relevant to inpatients and those who care for them; a multiphase, pragmatic action research approach

Background Randomised controlled trials may be of limited use to evaluate the multidisciplinary and multimodal interventions required to effectively treat complex patients in routine clinical practice; pragmatic action research approaches may provide a suitable alternative. Methods A multiphase, pragmatic, action research based approach was developed to identify and overcome barriers to nutritional care in patients admitted to a metropolitan hospital hip-fracture unit. Results Four sequential action research cycles built upon baseline data including 614 acute hip-fracture inpatients and 30 purposefully sampled clinicians. Reports from Phase I identified barriers to nutrition screening and assessment. Phase II reported post-fracture protein-energy intakes and intake barriers. Phase III built on earlier results; an explanatory mixed-methods study expanded and explored additional barriers and facilitators to nutritional care. Subsequent changes to routine clinical practice were developed and implemented by the treating team between Phase III and IV. These were implemented as a new multidisciplinary, multimodal nutritional model of care. A quasi-experimental controlled, ‘before-and-after’ study was then used to compare the new model of care with an individualised nutritional care model. Engagement of the multidisciplinary team in a multiphase, pragmatic action research intervention doubled energy and protein intakes, tripled return home discharge rates, and effected a 75% reduction in nutritional deterioration during admission in a reflective cohort of hip-fracture inpatients. Conclusions This approach allowed research to be conducted as part of routine clinical practice, captured a more representative patient cohort than previously reported studies, and facilitated exploration of barriers and engagement of the multidisciplinary healthcare workers to identify and implement practical solutions. This study demonstrates substantially different findings to those previously reported, and is the first to demonstrate that multidisciplinary, multimodal nutrition care reduces intake barriers, delivers a higher proportional increase in protein and energy intake compared with baseline than other published intervention studies, and improves patient outcomes when compared with individualised nutrition care. The findings are considered highly relevant to clinical practice and have high translation validity. The authors strongly encourage the development of similar study designs to investigate complex health problems in elderly, multi-morbid patient populations as a way to evaluate and change clinical practice.

The primacy of vital signs – Acute care nurses’ and midwives’ use of physical assessment skills: A cross sectional study

BACKGROUND: Registered nurses and midwives play an essential role in detecting patients at risk of deterioration through ongoing assessment and action in response to changing health status. Yet, evidence suggests that clinical deterioration frequently goes unnoticed in hospitalised patients. While much attention has been paid to early warning and rapid response systems, little research has examined factors related to physical assessment skills. OBJECTIVES: To determine a minimum data set of core skills used during nursing assessment of hospitalised patients and identify nurse and workplace predictors of the use of physical assessment to detect patient deterioration. DESIGN: The study used a single-centre, cross-sectional survey design. SETTING and PARTICIPANTS: The study included 434 registered nurses and midwives (Grades 5-7) involved in clinical care of patients on acute care wards, including medicine, surgery, oncology, mental health and maternity service areas, at a 929-bed tertiary referral teaching hospital in Southeast Queensland, Australia. METHODS: We conducted a hospital-wide survey of registered nurses and midwives using the 133-item Physical Assessment Skills Inventory and the 58-item Barriers to Registered Nurses’ Use of Physical Assessment scale. Median frequency for each physical assessment skill was calculated to determine core skills. To explore predictors of core skill utilisation, backward stepwise general linear modelling was conducted. Means and regression coefficients are reported with 95% confidence intervals. A p value < .05 was considered significant for all analyses. RESULTS: Core skills used by most nurses every time they worked included assessment of temperature, oxygen saturation, blood pressure, breathing effort, skin, wound and mental status. Reliance on others and technology (F = 35.77, p < .001), lack of confidence (F = 5.52, p = .02), work area (F = 3.79, p = .002), and clinical role (F = 44.24, p < .001) were significant predictors of the extent of physical assessment skill use. CONCLUSIONS: The increasing acuity of the acute care patient plausibly warrants more than vital signs assessment; however, our study confirms nurses’ physical assessment core skill set is mainly comprised of vital signs. The focus on these endpoints of deterioration as dictated by early warning and rapid response systems may divert attention from and devalue comprehensive nursing assessment that could detect subtle changes in health status earlier in the patient's hospitalisation.

‘Ngulluck Katitj Wah Koorl Koorliny/ Us mob going along learning to research together’ : drawing on action research to develop a literature review on Indigenous gendered health and wellbeing

This paper describes the collaborative work practices of the Health and Wellbeing Node within the National Indigenous Research and Knowledges Network (NIRAKN). The authors reflect on the processes they used to research and develop a literature review. As a newly established research team, the Health and Wellbeing Node members developed a collaborative approach that was informed by Action Research practices and underpinned by Indigenous ways of working. The authors identify strong links between Action Research and Indigenous processes. They suggest that, through ongoing cycles of research and review, the NIRAKN Health and Wellbeing Node developed a culturally safe, respectful and trulycollaborative way of working together and forming the identity of their work group. In this paper, they describe their developing work processes and explain the way that pictorial conceptual models contributed to their emerging ideas.

Kids, counselors and troubles-telling : morality-in-action in talk on an Australian children’s helpline

This article begins with the premise that morality is an intrinsic, although often invisible, aspect of everyday social action. Drawn from a corpus of fifty audiorecorded telephone calls to Kids Helpline, an Australian helpline for children and young people, we examine one call to show how the young caller and counsellor co-construct ‘morality-in-action’. Ethnomethodological understandings and, in particular, Sacks’ (1992) description of ‘Class 2’ rules and infractions show how an adolescent caller and counsellor collaboratively assemble moral versions of the caller. In puzzling out possible motives, the caller and counsellor can be seen to be attending to the implications of different moral versions of the caller. This attribution of motives is moral work in action, with motives contingently assembled, displayed and evaluated, with such work understood as displays of moral reasoning. The counselling call makes visible the counsellor’s interactional work to support and empower the client. Analysis such as this offers counsellors ways of understanding and making visible their interactional and moral work within helpline call interactions.

Cytokine expression and secretion by skeletal muscle cells : regulatory mechanisms and exercise effects

Cytokines are important mediators of various aspects of health and disease, including appetite, glucose and lipid metabolism, insulin sensitivity, skeletal muscle hypertrophy and atrophy. Over the past decade or so, considerable attention has focused on the potential for regular exercise to counteract a range of disease states by modulating cytokine production. Exercise stimulates moderate to large increases in the circulating concentrations of interleukin (IL)-6, IL-8, IL-10, IL-1 receptor antagonist, granulocyte-colony stimulating factor, and smaller increases in tumor necrosis factor-α, monocyte chemotactic protein-1, IL-1β, brain-derived neurotrophic factor, IL-12p35/p40 and IL-15. Although many of these cytokines are also expressed in skeletal muscle, not all are released from skeletal muscle into the circulation during exercise. Conversely, some cytokines that are present in the circulation are not expressed in skeletal muscle after exercise. The reasons for these discrepant cytokine responses to exercise are unclear. In this review, we address these uncertainties by summarizing the capacity of skeletal muscle cells to produce cytokines, analyzing other potential cellular sources of circulating cytokines during exercise, and discussing the soluble factors and intracellular signaling pathways that regulate cytokine synthesis (e.g., RNA-binding proteins, microRNAs, suppressor of cytokine signaling proteins, soluble receptors).

Understanding carers' intention for their child to walk to school : further application of the theory of reasoned action

One quarter of Australian children are overweight or obese (ABS, 2010), putting them at increased risk of physical and psychological health problems (Reilly et al., 2003). Overweight and obesity in childhood tends to persist into adulthood and is associated with premature death and morbidity (Reilly & Kelly, 2011). Increases in Australian children’s weight have coincided with declines in active transportation, such as walking, to school (Salmon et al., 2005). Investigating the factors which influence walking to school is therefore important, particularly since walking to school is a low cost and effective means of reducing excess weight (Rosenberg et al., 2006) that can be easily integrated into daily routine (Brophy et al., 2011). While research in this area has expanded (e.g., Brophy et al., 2011; Giles-Corti et al., 2010), it is largely atheoretical (exceptions Napier et al., 2011). This is an important gap from a social marketing perspective given the use of theory lies at the foundation of the framework (NSMC, 2006) and a continued lack of theory use is observed (Luca & Suggs, 2013). The aim of this paper is to empirically examine a widely adopted theory, the deconstructed Theory of Reasoned Action (TRA) (Fishbein & Azjen, 1975), to understand the relative importance of attitude and subjective norms in determining intentions to increase walk to school behaviour.

Multi-action recognition via stochastic modelling of optical flow and gradients

In this paper we propose a novel approach to multi-action recognition that performs joint segmentation and classification. This approach models each action using a Gaussian mixture using robust low-dimensional action features. Segmentation is achieved by performing classification on overlapping temporal windows, which are then merged to produce the final result. This approach is considerably less complicated than previous methods which use dynamic programming or computationally expensive hidden Markov models (HMMs). Initial experiments on a stitched version of the KTH dataset show that the proposed approach achieves an accuracy of 78.3%, outperforming a recent HMM-based approach which obtained 71.2%.

Practical implementation of species' recovery plans - Lessons from the White-backed Woodpecker Action Plan in Sweden

Successful biodiversity conservation requires safeguarding viable populations of species. To work with this challenge Sweden has introduced a concept of Action Plans, which focus on the recovery of one or more species; while keeping in mind the philosophy of addressing ecosystems in a more comprehensive way, following the umbrella concept. In this paper we investigate the implementationprocess of the ActionPlanfor one umbrella species, the White-backed Woodpecker (WBW) Dendrocopos leucotos. We describe the plan's organisation and goals, and investigate its implementation and accomplishment of particular targets, based on interviewing and surveying the key actors. The achievement of the targets in 2005-2008 was on average much lower than planned, explained partially by the lack of knowledge/data, experienced workers, and administrative flexibility. Surprisingly, the perceived importance of particular conservation measures, the investment priority accorded to them, the money available and various practical obstacles all failed to kg? explain the target levels achieved. However qualitative data from both the interviews and the survey highlight possible implementation obstacles: competing interests with other conservation actions and the level of engagement of particular implementing actors. Therefore we suggest that for successful implementation of recovery plans, there is aneed for initial and inclusive scoping prior to embarking on the plan, where not only issues like ecological knowledge and practical resources are considered, but also possible conflicts and synergies with other conservation actions. An adaptive approach with regular review of the conservation process is essential, particularly in the case of such complex action plans as the one for the WBW.

Using conservation evidence to guide management

Almost 10 years ago, Pullin and Knight (2001) called for an “effectiveness revolution in conservation” to be enabled by the systematic evaluation of evidence for conservation decision making. Drawing from the model used in clinicalmedicine, they outlined the concept of “evidencebased conservation” in which existing information, or evidence, from relevant and rigorous research is compiled and analyzed in a systematic manner to inform conservation actions (Cochrane 1972). The promise of evidencebased conservation has generated significant interest; 25 systematic reviews have been completed since 2004 and dozens are underway (Collaboration for Environmental Evidence 2010). However we argue that an “effectiveness revolution” (Pullin & Knight 2001) in conservation will not be possible unless mechanisms are devised for incorporating the growing evidence base into decision frameworks. For conservation professionals to accomplish the missions of their organizations they must demonstrate that their actions actually achieve objectives (Pullin & Knight 2009). Systematic evaluation provides a framework for objectively evaluating the effectiveness of actions. To leverage the benefit of these evaluations, we need resource-allocation systems that are responsive to their outcomes. The allocation of conservation resources is often the product of institutional priorities or reliance on intuition (Sutherland et al. 2004; Pullin & Knight 2005; Cook et al. 2010). We highlight the NICE technologyappraisal process because it provides an example of formal integration of systematic-evidence evaluation with provision of guidance for action. The transparent process, which clearly delineates costs and benefits of each alternative action, could also provide the public with new insight into the environmental effects of different decisions. This insight could stimulate a wider discussion about investment in conservation by demonstrating how changes in funding might affect the probability of achieving conservation objectives. ©2010 Society for Conservation Biology

Reactive reaching and grasping on a humanoid: Towards closing the action-perception loop on the iCub

We propose a system incorporating a tight integration between computer vision and robot control modules on a complex, high-DOF humanoid robot. Its functionality is showcased by having our iCub humanoid robot pick-up objects from a table in front of it. An important feature is that the system can avoid obstacles - other objects detected in the visual stream - while reaching for the intended target object. Our integration also allows for non-static environments, i.e. the reaching is adapted on-the-fly from the visual feedback received, e.g. when an obstacle is moved into the trajectory. Furthermore we show that this system can be used both in autonomous and tele-operation scenarios.