945 resultados para Mean Squared Error


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The euphotic depth (Zeu) is a key parameter in modelling primary production (PP) using satellite ocean colour. However, evaluations of satellite Zeu products are scarce. The objective of this paper is to investigate existing approaches and sensors to estimate Zeu from satellite and to evaluate how different Zeu products might affect the estimation of PP in the Southern Ocean (SO). Euphotic depth was derived from MODIS and SeaWiFS products of (i) surface chlorophyll-a (Zeu-Chla) and (ii) inherent optical properties (Zeu-IOP). They were compared with in situ measurements of Zeu from different regions of the SO. Both approaches and sensors are robust to retrieve Zeu, although the best results were obtained using the IOP approach and SeaWiFS data, with an average percentage of error (E) of 25.43% and mean absolute error (MAE) of 0.10 m (log scale). Nevertheless, differences in the spatial distribution of Zeu-Chla and Zeu-IOP for both sensors were found as large as 30% over specific regions. These differences were also observed in PP. On average, PP based on Zeu-Chla was 8% higher than PP based on Zeu-IOP, but it was up to 30% higher south of 60°S. Satellite phytoplankton absorption coefficients (aph) derived by the Quasi-Analytical Algorithm at different wavelengths were also validated and the results showed that MODIS aph are generally more robust than SeaWiFS. Thus, MODIS aph should be preferred in PP models based on aph in the SO. Further, we reinforce the importance of investigating the spatial differences between satellite products, which might not be detected by the validation with in situ measurements due to the insufficient amount and uneven distribution of the data.

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Fog deposition, precipitation, throughfall and stemflow were measured in a windward tropical montane cloud forest near Monteverde, Costa Rica, for a 65-day period during the dry season of 2003. Net fog deposition was measured directly using the eddy covariance (EC) method and it amounted to 1.2 ± 0.1 mm/day (mean ± standard error). Fog water deposition was 5-9% of incident rainfall for the entire period, which is at the low end of previously reported values. Stable isotope concentrations (d18O and d2H) were determined in a large number of samples of each water component. Mass balance-based estimates of fog deposition were 1.0 ± 0.3 and 5.0 ± 2.7 mm/day (mean ± SE) when d18O and d2H were used as tracer, respectively. Comparisons between direct fog deposition measurements and the results of the mass balance model using d18O as a tracer indicated that the latter might be a good tool to estimate fog deposition in the absence of direct measurement under many (but not all) conditions. At 506 mm, measured water inputs over the 65 days (fog plus rain) fell short by 46 mm compared to the canopy output of 552 mm (throughfall, stemflow and interception evaporation). This discrepancy is attributed to the underestimation of rainfall during conditions of high wind.

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(preliminary) Exchanges of carbon, water and energy between the land surface and the atmosphere are monitored by eddy covariance technique at the ecosystem level. Currently, the FLUXNET database contains more than 500 sites registered and up to 250 of them sharing data (Free Fair Use dataset). Many modelling groups use the FLUXNET dataset for evaluating ecosystem model's performances but it requires uninterrupted time series for the meteorological variables used as input. Because original in-situ data often contain gaps, from very short (few hours) up to relatively long (some months), we develop a new and robust method for filling the gaps in meteorological data measured at site level. Our approach has the benefit of making use of continuous data available globally (ERA-interim) and high temporal resolution spanning from 1989 to today. These data are however not measured at site level and for this reason a method to downscale and correct the ERA-interim data is needed. We apply this method on the level 4 data (L4) from the LaThuile collection, freely available after registration under a Fair-Use policy. The performances of the developed method vary across sites and are also function of the meteorological variable. On average overall sites, the bias correction leads to cancel from 10% to 36% of the initial mismatch between in-situ and ERA-interim data, depending of the meteorological variable considered. In comparison to the internal variability of the in-situ data, the root mean square error (RMSE) between the in-situ data and the un-biased ERA-I data remains relatively large (on average overall sites, from 27% to 76% of the standard deviation of in-situ data, depending of the meteorological variable considered). The performance of the method remains low for the Wind Speed field, in particular regarding its capacity to conserve a standard deviation similar to the one measured at FLUXNET stations.

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Secchi depth is a measure of water transparency. In the Baltic Sea region, Secchi depth maps are used to assess eutrophication and as input for habitat models. Due to their spatial and temporal coverage, satellite data would be the most suitable data source for such maps. But the Baltic Sea's optical properties are so different from the open ocean that globally calibrated standard models suffer from large errors. Regional predictive models that take the Baltic Sea's special optical properties into account are thus needed. This paper tests how accurately generalized linear models (GLMs) and generalized additive models (GAMs) with MODIS/Aqua and auxiliary data as inputs can predict Secchi depth at a regional scale. It uses cross-validation to test the prediction accuracy of hundreds of GAMs and GLMs with up to 5 input variables. A GAM with 3 input variables (chlorophyll a, remote sensing reflectance at 678 nm, and long-term mean salinity) made the most accurate predictions. Tested against field observations not used for model selection and calibration, the best model's mean absolute error (MAE) for daily predictions was 1.07 m (22%), more than 50% lower than for other publicly available Baltic Sea Secchi depth maps. The MAE for predicting monthly averages was 0.86 m (15%). Thus, the proposed model selection process was able to find a regional model with good prediction accuracy. It could be useful to find predictive models for environmental variables other than Secchi depth, using data from other satellite sensors, and for other regions where non-standard remote sensing models are needed for prediction and mapping. Annual and monthly mean Secchi depth maps for 2003-2012 come with this paper as Supplementary materials.

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The hydrogen isotopic composition of plant leaf-wax n-alkanes (dDwax) is a novel proxy for estimating dD of past precipitation (dDp). However, vegetation life-form and relative humidity exert secondary effects on dDwax, preventing quantitative estimates of past dDp. Here, we present an approach for removing the effect of vegetation-type and relative humidity from dDwax and thus for directly estimating past dDp. We test this approach on modern day (late Holocene; 0-3 ka) sediments from a transect of 9 marine cores spanning 21°N-23°S off the western coast of Africa. We estimate vegetation type (C3 tree versus C4 grass) using d13C of leaf-wax n-alkanes and correct dDwax for vegetation-type with previously-derived apparent fractionation factors for each vegetation type. Late Holocene vegetation-corrected dDwax (dDvc) displays a good fit with modern-day dDp, suggesting that the effects of vegetation type and relative humidity have both been removed and thus that dDvc is a good estimate of dDp. We find that the magnitude of the effect of C3 tree - C4 grass changes on dDwax is small compared to dDp changes. We go on to estimate dDvc for the mid-Holocene (6-8 ka), the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM; 19-23 ka) and Heinrich Stadial 1 (HS1; 16-18.5 ka). In terms of past hydrological changes, our leaf-wax based estimates of dDp mostly reflect changes in wet season intensity, which is complementary to estimates of wet season length based on leaf-wax d13C.

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Ice shelves strongly impact coastal Antarctic sea-ice and the associated ecosystem through the formation of a sub-sea-ice platelet layer. Although progress has been made in determining and understanding its spatio-temporal variability based on point measurements, an investigation of this phenomenon on a larger scale remains a challenge due to logistical constraints and a lack of suitable methodology. In this study, we applied a laterally-constrained Marquardt-Levenberg inversion to a unique multi-frequency electromagnetic (EM) induction sounding dataset obtained on the landfast sea ice of Atka Bay, eastern Weddell Sea, in 2012. In addition to consistent fast-ice thickness and -conductivities along > 100 km transects; we present the first comprehensive, high resolution platelet-layer thickness and -conductivity dataset recorded on Antarctic sea ice. The reliability of the algorithm was confirmed by using synthetic data, and the inverted platelet-layer thicknesses agreed within the data uncertainty to drill-hole measurements. Ice-volume fractions were calculated from platelet-layer conductivities, revealing that an older and thicker platelet layer is denser and more compacted than a loosely attached, young platelet layer. The overall platelet-layer volume below Atka Bay fast ice suggests that the contribution of ocean/ice-shelf interaction to sea-ice volume in this region is even higher than previously thought. This study also implies that multi-frequency EM induction sounding is an effective approach in determining platelet layer volume on a larger scale than previously feasible. When applied to airborne multi-frequency EM, this method could provide a step towards an Antarctic-wide quantification of ocean/ice-shelf interaction.