Testing new identity models and processes in French-speaking adolescents and emerging adults students

Developing a sense of identity is a crucial psychosocial task for young people. The purpose of this study was to evaluate identity development in French-speaking adolescents and emerging adults (in France and Switzerland) using a process-oriented model of identity formation including five dimensions (i.e., exploration in breadth, commitment making, exploration in depth, identification with commitment, and ruminative exploration). The study included participants from three different samples (total N = 2239, 66.7% women): two samples of emerging adult student and one sample of adolescents. Results confirmed the hypothesized five-factor dimensional model of identity in our three samples and provided evidence for convergent validity of the model. The results also indicated that exploration in depth might be subdivided in two aspects: a first form of exploration in depth leading to a better understanding and to an increase of the strength of current commitments and a second form of exploration in depth leading to a re-evaluation and a reconsideration of current commitments. Further, the identity status cluster solution that emerged is globally in line with previous literature (i.e., achievement, foreclosure, moratorium, carefree diffusion, diffused diffusion, undifferentiated). However, despite a structural similarity, we found variations in identity profiles because identity development is shaped by cultural context. These specific variations are discussed in light of social, educational and economic differences between France and the French-speaking part of Switzerland. Implications and suggestions for future research are offered.

Aitchison Geometry for Probability and Likelihood as a new approach to mathematical statistics

The Aitchison vector space structure for the simplex is generalized to a Hilbert space structure A2(P) for distributions and likelihoods on arbitrary spaces. Centralnotations of statistics, such as Information or Likelihood, can be identified in the algebraical structure of A2(P) and their corresponding notions in compositional data analysis, such as Aitchison distance or centered log ratio transform.In this way very elaborated aspects of mathematical statistics can be understoodeasily in the light of a simple vector space structure and of compositional data analysis. E.g. combination of statistical information such as Bayesian updating,combination of likelihood and robust M-estimation functions are simple additions/perturbations in A2(Pprior). Weighting observations corresponds to a weightedaddition of the corresponding evidence.Likelihood based statistics for general exponential families turns out to have aparticularly easy interpretation in terms of A2(P). Regular exponential families formfinite dimensional linear subspaces of A2(P) and they correspond to finite dimensionalsubspaces formed by their posterior in the dual information space A2(Pprior).The Aitchison norm can identified with mean Fisher information. The closing constant itself is identified with a generalization of the cummulant function and shown to be Kullback Leiblers directed information. Fisher information is the local geometry of the manifold induced by the A2(P) derivative of the Kullback Leibler information and the space A2(P) can therefore be seen as the tangential geometry of statistical inference at the distribution P.The discussion of A2(P) valued random variables, such as estimation functionsor likelihoods, give a further interpretation of Fisher information as the expected squared norm of evidence and a scale free understanding of unbiased reasoning

Some last thoughts on compositional data analysis

One of the disadvantages of old age is that there is more past than future: this,however, may be turned into an advantage if the wealth of experience and, hopefully,wisdom gained in the past can be reflected upon and throw some light on possiblefuture trends. To an extent, then, this talk is necessarily personal, certainly nostalgic,but also self critical and inquisitive about our understanding of the discipline ofstatistics. A number of almost philosophical themes will run through the talk: searchfor appropriate modelling in relation to the real problem envisaged, emphasis onsensible balances between simplicity and complexity, the relative roles of theory andpractice, the nature of communication of inferential ideas to the statistical layman, theinter-related roles of teaching, consultation and research. A list of keywords might be:identification of sample space and its mathematical structure, choices betweentransform and stay, the role of parametric modelling, the role of a sample spacemetric, the underused hypothesis lattice, the nature of compositional change,particularly in relation to the modelling of processes. While the main theme will berelevance to compositional data analysis we shall point to substantial implications forgeneral multivariate analysis arising from experience of the development ofcompositional data analysis…

A mathematical excursion: From the three-door problem to a Cantor-type perfect set

We start with a generalization of the well-known three-door problem:the n-door problem. The solution of this new problem leads us toa beautiful representation system for real numbers in (0,1] as alternated series, known in the literature as Pierce expansions. A closer look to Pierce expansions will take us to some metrical properties of sets defined through the Pierce expansions of its elements. Finally, these metrical properties will enable us to present 'strange' sets, similar to the classical Cantor set.

On the term structure of Interbank interest rates: Jump-diffusion processes and option pricing

In this paper we study the dynamic behavior of the term structureof Interbank interest rates and the pricing of options on interest ratesensitive securities. We posit a generalized single factor model withjumps to take into account external influences in the market. Daily datais used to test for jump effects. Qualitative examination of the linkagebetween Monetary Authorities' interventions and jumps are studied. Pricingresults suggests a systematic underpricing in bonds and call options ifthe jumps component is not included. However, the pricing of put optionson bonds presents indeterminacies.

The daily market for funds in Europe: Mathematical appendix

This paper includes the derivations of the main expressions in the paper ``The Daily Market for Funds in Europe: Has Something Changed With the EMU?'' by G. Pérez Quirós and H. Rodríguez Mendizábal.

Splitting rivers at their seams: bifurcations and avulsion

River bifurcations are critical but poorly understood elements of many geomorphological systems. They are integral elements of alluvial fans, braided rivers, fluvial lowland plains, and deltas and control the partitioning of water and sediment through these systems. Bifurcations are commonly unstable but their lifespan varies greatly. In braided rivers bars and channels migrate, split and merge at annual or shorter timescales, thereby creating and abandoning bifurcations. This behaviour has been studied mainly by geomorphologists and fluid dynamicists. Bifurcations also exist during avulsion, the process of a river changing course on a floodplain or in a delta, which may take 102103 years and has been studied mainly by sedimentologists. This review synthesizes our current understanding of bifurcations and brings together insights from different research communities and different environmental settings. We consider the causes and initiation of bifurcations and avulsion, the physical mechanisms controlling bifurcation and avulsion evolution, mathematical and numerical modelling of these processes, and the possibility of stable bifurcations. We end the review with some open questions. Copyright (c) 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Unravelling the enigmatic origin of calcitic nanofibres in soils and caves: purely physicochemical or biogenic processes?

Calcitic nanofibres are ubiquitous habits of sec- ondary calcium carbonate (CaCO3 ) accumulations observed in calcareous vadose environments. Despite their widespread occurrence, the origin of these nanofeatures remains enig- matic. Three possible mechanisms fuel the debate: (i) purely physicochemical processes, (ii) mineralization of rod-shaped bacteria, and (iii) crystal precipitation on organic templates. Nanofibres can be either mineral (calcitic) or organic in na- ture. They are very often observed in association with needle fibre calcite (NFC), another typical secondary CaCO3 habit in terrestrial environments. This association has contributed to some confusion between both habits, however they are truly two distinct calcitic features and their recurrent asso- ciation is likely to be an important fact to help understanding the origin of nanofibres. In this paper the different hypotheses that currently exist to explain the origin of calcitic nanofibres are critically reviewed. In addition to this, a new hypothe- sis for the origin of nanofibres is proposed based on the fact that current knowledge attributes a fungal origin to NFC. As this feature and nanofibres are recurrently observed together, a possible fungal origin for nanofibres which are associated with NFC is investigated. Sequential enzymatic digestion of the fungal cell wall of selected fungal species demonstrates that the fungal cell wall can be a source of organic nanofibres. The obtained organic nanofibres show a striking morpho- logical resemblance when compared to their natural coun- terparts, emphasizing a fungal origin for part of the organic nanofibres observed in association with NFC. It is further hy- pothesized that these organic nanofibres may act as templates for calcite nucleation in a biologically influenced mineraliza- tion process, generating calcitic nanofibres. This highlights the possible involvement of fungi in CaCO3 biomineraliza- tion processes, a role still poorly documented. Moreover, on a global scale, the organomineralization of organic nanofi- bres into calcitic nanofibres might be an overlooked process deserving more attention to specify its impact on the biogeo- chemical cycles of both Ca and C.

Resurgence of HIV infection among men who have sex with men in Switzerland: mathematical modelling study.

BACKGROUND: New HIV infections in men who have sex with men (MSM) have increased in Switzerland since 2000 despite combination antiretroviral therapy (cART). The objectives of this mathematical modelling study were: to describe the dynamics of the HIV epidemic in MSM in Switzerland using national data; to explore the effects of hypothetical prevention scenarios; and to conduct a multivariate sensitivity analysis. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: The model describes HIV transmission, progression and the effects of cART using differential equations. The model was fitted to Swiss HIV and AIDS surveillance data and twelve unknown parameters were estimated. Predicted numbers of diagnosed HIV infections and AIDS cases fitted the observed data well. By the end of 2010, an estimated 13.5% (95% CI 12.5, 14.6%) of all HIV-infected MSM were undiagnosed and accounted for 81.8% (95% CI 81.1, 82.4%) of new HIV infections. The transmission rate was at its lowest from 1995-1999, with a nadir of 46 incident HIV infections in 1999, but increased from 2000. The estimated number of new infections continued to increase to more than 250 in 2010, although the reproduction number was still below the epidemic threshold. Prevention scenarios included temporary reductions in risk behaviour, annual test and treat, and reduction in risk behaviour to levels observed earlier in the epidemic. These led to predicted reductions in new infections from 2 to 26% by 2020. Parameters related to disease progression and relative infectiousness at different HIV stages had the greatest influence on estimates of the net transmission rate. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: The model outputs suggest that the increase in HIV transmission amongst MSM in Switzerland is the result of continuing risky sexual behaviour, particularly by those unaware of their infection status. Long term reductions in the incidence of HIV infection in MSM in Switzerland will require increased and sustained uptake of effective interventions.

Driver scheduling problem modelling

The Drivers Scheduling Problem (DSP) consists of selecting a set of duties for vehicle drivers, for example buses, trains, plane or boat drivers or pilots, for the transportation of passengers or goods. This is a complex problem because it involves several constraints related to labour and company rules and can also present different evaluation criteria and objectives. Being able to develop an adequate model for this problem that can represent the real problem as close as possible is an important research area.The main objective of this research work is to present new mathematical models to the DSP problem that represent all the complexity of the drivers scheduling problem, and also demonstrate that the solutions of these models can be easily implemented in real situations. This issue has been recognized by several authors and as important problem in Public Transportation. The most well-known and general formulation for the DSP is a Set Partition/Set Covering Model (SPP/SCP). However, to a large extend these models simplify some of the specific business aspects and issues of real problems. This makes it difficult to use these models as automatic planning systems because the schedules obtained must be modified manually to be implemented in real situations. Based on extensive passenger transportation experience in bus companies in Portugal, we propose new alternative models to formulate the DSP problem. These models are also based on Set Partitioning/Covering Models; however, they take into account the bus operator issues and the perspective opinions and environment of the user.We follow the steps of the Operations Research Methodology which consist of: Identify the Problem; Understand the System; Formulate a Mathematical Model; Verify the Model; Select the Best Alternative; Present the Results of theAnalysis and Implement and Evaluate. All the processes are done with close participation and involvement of the final users from different transportation companies. The planner s opinion and main criticisms are used to improve the proposed model in a continuous enrichment process. The final objective is to have a model that can be incorporated into an information system to be used as an automatic tool to produce driver schedules. Therefore, the criteria for evaluating the models is the capacity to generate real and useful schedules that can be implemented without many manual adjustments or modifications. We have considered the following as measures of the quality of the model: simplicity, solution quality and applicability. We tested the alternative models with a set of real data obtained from several different transportation companies and analyzed the optimal schedules obtained with respect to the applicability of the solution to the real situation. To do this, the schedules were analyzed by the planners to determine their quality and applicability. The main result of this work is the proposition of new mathematical models for the DSP that better represent the realities of the passenger transportation operators and lead to better schedules that can be implemented directly in real situations.

On moments and tail behaviors of storage processes

We study the existence of moments and the tail behaviour of the densitiesof storage processes. We give sufficient conditions for existence andnon-existence of moments using the integrability conditions ofsubmultiplicative functions with respect to Lévy measures. Then, we studythe asymptotical behavior of the tails of these processes using the concaveor convex envelope of the release rate function.

Reconstruction of metal pollution and recent sedimentation processes in Havana Bay (Cuba): A tool for coastal ecosystem management.

Since 1998 the highly polluted Havana Bay ecosystem has been the subject of a mitigation program. In order to determine whether pollution-reduction strategies were effective, we have evaluated the historical trends of pollution recorded in sediments of the Bay. A sediment core was dated radiometrically using natural and artificial fallout radionuclides. An irregularity in the (210)Pb record was caused by an episode of accelerated sedimentation. This episode was dated to occur in 1982, a year coincident with the heaviest rains reported in Havana over the XX century. Peaks of mass accumulation rates (MAR) were associated with hurricanes and intensive rains. In the past 60 years, these maxima are related to strong El Niño periods, which are known to increase rainfall in the north Caribbean region. We observed a steady increase of pollution (mainly Pb, Zn, Sn, and Hg) since the beginning of the century to the mid 90s, with enrichment factors as high as 6. MAR and pollution decreased rapidly after the mid 90s, although some trace metal levels remain high. This reduction was due to the integrated coastal zone management program introduced in the late 90s, which dismissed catchment erosion and pollution.

Early attentional processes distinguish selective from global motor inhibitory control : An electrical neuroimaging study

The rapid stopping of specific parts of movements is frequently required in daily life. Yet, whether selective inhibitory control of movements is mediated by a specific neural pathway or by the combination between a global stopping of all ongoing motor activity followed by the re-initiation of task-relevant movements remains unclear. To address this question, we applied time-wise statistical analyses of the topography, global field power and electrical sources of the event-related potentials to the global vs selective inhibition stimuli presented during a Go/NoGo task. Participants (n = 18) had to respond as fast as possible with their two hands to Go stimuli and to withhold the response from the two hands (global inhibition condition, GNG) or from only one hand (selective inhibition condition, SNG) when specific NoGo stimuli were presented. Behaviorally, we replicated previous evidence for slower response times in the SNG than in the Go condition. Electrophysiologically, there were two distinct phases of event-related potentials modulations between the GNG and the SNG conditions. At 110âeuro"150 ms post-stimulus onset, there was a difference in the strength of the electric field without concomitant topographic modulation, indicating the differential engagement of statistically indistinguishable configurations of neural generators for selective and global inhibitory control. At 150âeuro"200 ms, there was topographic modulation, indicating the engagement of distinct brain networks. Source estimations localized these effects within bilateral temporo-parieto-occipital and within parieto-central networks, respectively. Our results suggest that while both types of motor inhibitory control depend on global stopping mechanisms, selective and global inhibition still differ quantitatively at early attention-related processing phases.