A sequential Monte Carlo algorithm to incorporate model uncertainty in Bayesian sequential design

Here we present a sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) algorithm that can be used for any one-at-a-time Bayesian sequential design problem in the presence of model uncertainty where discrete data are encountered. Our focus is on adaptive design for model discrimination but the methodology is applicable if one has a different design objective such as parameter estimation or prediction. An SMC algorithm is run in parallel for each model and the algorithm relies on a convenient estimator of the evidence of each model which is essentially a function of importance sampling weights. Other methods for this task such as quadrature, often used in design, suffer from the curse of dimensionality. Approximating posterior model probabilities in this way allows us to use model discrimination utility functions derived from information theory that were previously difficult to compute except for conjugate models. A major benefit of the algorithm is that it requires very little problem specific tuning. We demonstrate the methodology on three applications, including discriminating between models for decline in motor neuron numbers in patients suffering from neurological diseases such as Motor Neuron disease.

Three-dimensional geological modelling and multivariate statistical analysis of water chemistry data to analyse and visualise aquifer structure and groundwater composition in the Wairau Plain, Marlborough District, New Zealand

Concerns regarding groundwater contamination with nitrate and the long-term sustainability of groundwater resources have prompted the development of a multi-layered three dimensional (3D) geological model to characterise the aquifer geometry of the Wairau Plain, Marlborough District, New Zealand. The 3D geological model which consists of eight litho-stratigraphic units has been subsequently used to synthesise hydrogeological and hydrogeochemical data for different aquifers in an approach that aims to demonstrate how integration of water chemistry data within the physical framework of a 3D geological model can help to better understand and conceptualise groundwater systems in complex geological settings. Multivariate statistical techniques(e.g. Principal Component Analysis and Hierarchical Cluster Analysis) were applied to groundwater chemistry data to identify hydrochemical facies which are characteristic of distinct evolutionary pathways and a common hydrologic history of groundwaters. Principal Component Analysis on hydrochemical data demonstrated that natural water-rock interactions, redox potential and human agricultural impact are the key controls of groundwater quality in the Wairau Plain. Hierarchical Cluster Analysis revealed distinct hydrochemical water quality groups in the Wairau Plain groundwater system. Visualisation of the results of the multivariate statistical analyses and distribution of groundwater nitrate concentrations in the context of aquifer lithology highlighted the link between groundwater chemistry and the lithology of host aquifers. The methodology followed in this study can be applied in a variety of hydrogeological settings to synthesise geological, hydrogeological and hydrochemical data and present them in a format readily understood by a wide range of stakeholders. This enables a more efficient communication of the results of scientific studies to the wider community.

Using approximate Bayesian computation to estimate transmission rates of nosocomial pathogens

In this paper, we apply a simulation based approach for estimating transmission rates of nosocomial pathogens. In particular, the objective is to infer the transmission rate between colonised health-care practitioners and uncolonised patients (and vice versa) solely from routinely collected incidence data. The method, using approximate Bayesian computation, is substantially less computer intensive and easier to implement than likelihood-based approaches we refer to here. We find through replacing the likelihood with a comparison of an efficient summary statistic between observed and simulated data that little is lost in the precision of estimated transmission rates. Furthermore, we investigate the impact of incorporating uncertainty in previously fixed parameters on the precision of the estimated transmission rates.

A practical approach for identifying expected solution performance and robustness in operations research applications

A practical approach for identifying solution robustness is proposed for situations where parameters are uncertain. The approach is based upon the interpretation of a probability density function (pdf) and the definition of three parameters that describe how significant changes in the performance of a solution are deemed to be. The pdf is constructed by interpreting the results of simulations. A minimum number of simulations are achieved by updating the mean, variance, skewness and kurtosis of the sample using computationally efficient recursive equations. When these criterions have converged then no further simulations are needed. A case study involving several no-intermediate storage flow shop scheduling problems demonstrates the effectiveness of the approach.

Stop and revive? : the effectiveness of nap and active rest breaks for reducing driver sleepiness

The incidence of sleep-related crashes has been estimated to account for approximately 20% of all fatal and severe crashes. The use of sleepiness countermeasures by drivers is an important component to reduce the incidence rates of sleep-related crashes. Taking a brief nap and stopping for a rest break are two highly publicised countermeasures for driver sleepiness and are also believed by drivers to be the most effective countermeasures. Despite this belief, there is scarce evidence to support the utility of these countermeasures for reducing driver sleepiness levels. Therefore, determining the effectiveness of these countermeasures is an important road safety concern. The current study utilised a young adult sample (N = 20) to investigate the effectiveness of a nap and an active rest break. The countermeasures effects were evaluated by physiological, behavioural (hazard perception skill), and subjective measures previously found sensitive to sleepiness. Participants initially completed two hours of a simulated driving task followed by a 15 minute nap opportunity or a 15 minute active rest break that included 10 minutes of brisk walking. After the break, participants completed one final hour of the simulated driving task. A within-subjects design was used so that each participant completed both the nap and the active rest break conditions on separate occasions. The analyses revealed that only the nap break provided any meaningful reduction in physiological sleepiness, reduced subjective sleepiness levels, and maintained hazard perception performance. In contrast, the active rest break had no effect for reducing physiological sleepiness and resulted in a decrement in hazard perception performance (i.e., an increase of reaction time latencies), with a transient reduction in subjective sleepiness levels. A number of theoretical, empirical and practical issues were identified by the current study.

A 2-h diagnostic protocol to assess patients with chest pain symptoms in the Asia-Pacific region (ASPECT): a prospective observational validation study

Background: Patients with chest pain contribute substantially to emergency department attendances, lengthy hospital stay, and inpatient admissions. A reliable, reproducible, and fast process to identify patients presenting with chest pain who have a low short-term risk of a major adverse cardiac event is needed to facilitate early discharge. We aimed to prospectively validate the safety of a predefined 2-h accelerated diagnostic protocol (ADP) to assess patients presenting to the emergency department with chest pain symptoms suggestive of acute coronary syndrome. Methods: This observational study was undertaken in 14 emergency departments in nine countries in the Asia-Pacific region, in patients aged 18 years and older with at least 5 min of chest pain. The ADP included use of a structured pre-test probability scoring method (Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction [TIMI] score), electrocardiograph, and point-of-care biomarker panel of troponin, creatine kinase MB, and myoglobin. The primary endpoint was major adverse cardiac events within 30 days after initial presentation (including initial hospital attendance). This trial is registered with the Australia-New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry, number ACTRN12609000283279. Findings: 3582 consecutive patients were recruited and completed 30-day follow-up. 421 (11•8%) patients had a major adverse cardiac event. The ADP classified 352 (9•8%) patients as low risk and potentially suitable for early discharge. A major adverse cardiac event occurred in three (0•9%) of these patients, giving the ADP a sensitivity of 99•3% (95% CI 97•9–99•8), a negative predictive value of 99•1% (97•3–99•8), and a specificity of 11•0% (10•0–12•2). Interpretation: This novel ADP identifies patients at very low risk of a short-term major adverse cardiac event who might be suitable for early discharge. Such an approach could be used to decrease the overall observation periods and admissions for chest pain. The components needed for the implementation of this strategy are widely available. The ADP has the potential to affect health-service delivery worldwide.

Hydrothermal technologies for the production of fuels and chemicals from biomass

Biomass and non-food crop residues are seen as relatively low cost and abundant renewable sources capable of making a large contribution to the world’s future energy and chemicals supply. Signifi cant quantities of ethanol are currently produced from biomass via biochemical processes, but thermochemical conversion processes offer greater potential to utilize the entire biomass source to produce a range of products. This chapter will review thermochemical gasifi cation and pyrolysis methods with a focus on hydrothermal liquefaction processes. Hydrothermal liquefaction is the most energetically advantageous thermochemical biomass conversion process. If the target is to produce sustainable liquid fuels and chemicals and reduce the impact of global warming as a result of carbon dioxide, nitrous oxide, and methane emissions (i.e., protect the natural environment), the use of “green” solvents, biocatalysts and heterogeneous catalysts must be the main R&D initiatives. As the biocrude produced from hydrothermal liquefaction is a complex mixture which is relatively viscous, corrosive, and unstable to oxidation (due to the presence of water and oxygenated compounds), additional upgrading processes are required to produce suitable biofuels and chemicals.

ATR-FTIR measurement of biomass components in phosphonium ionic liquids

Qualitative and quantitative measurements of biomass components dissolved in the phosphonium ionic liquids (ILs), trihexyltetradecylphosphonium chloride ([P66614]Cl) and tributylmethylphosphonium methylsulphate ([P4441]MeSO 4), are obtained using attenuated total reflectance-FTIR. Absorption bands related to cellulose, hemicelluloses, and lignin dissolution monitored in situ in biomass-IL mixtures indicate lignin dissolution in both ILs and some holocellulose dissolution in the hydrophilic [P4441]MeSO 4. The kinetics of lignin dissolution reported here indicate that while dissolution in the hydrophobic IL [P66614]Cl appears to follow an accepted mechanism of acid catalyzed -aryl ether cleavage, dissolution in the hydrophilic IL [P4441]MeSO 4 does not appear to follow this mechanism and may not be followed by condensation reactions (initiated by reactive ketones). The measurement of lignin dissolution in phosphonium ILs based on absorbance at 1510 cm 1 has demonstrated utility. When coupled with the gravimetric Klason lignin method, ATR-FTIR study of reaction mixtures can lead to a better understanding of the delignification process. © 2012 Copyright Taylor and Francis Group, LLC.

Gravy

To many aspiring writer/directors of feature film breaking into the industry may be perceived as an insurmountable obstacle. In contemplating my own attempt to venture into the world of feature filmmaking I have reasoned that a formulated strategy could be of benefit. As the film industry is largely concerned with economics I decided that writing a relatively low-cost feature film may improve my chances of being allowed directorship by a credible producer. As a result I have decided to write a modest feature film set in a single interior shooting location in an attempt to minimise production costs, therefore also attempting to reduce the perceived risk in hiring the writer as debut director. As a practice-led researcher, the primary focus of this research is to create a screenplay in response to my greater directorial aspirations and to explore the nature in which the said strategic decision to write a single-location film impacts on not only the craft of cinematic writing but also the creative process itself, as it pertains to the project at hand. The result is a comedy script titled Gravy, which is set in a single apartment and strives to maintain a fast comedic pace whilst employing a range of character and plot devices in conjunction with creative decisions that help to sustain cinematic interest within the confines of the apartment. In addition to the screenplay artifact, the exegesis also includes a section that reflects on the writing process in the form of personal accounts, decisions, problems and solutions as well as examination of other author’s works.

Dynamic covalent chemistry on surfaces employing highly reactive cyclopentadienyl moieties

Silicon substrates coated with a bromide-terminated silane are transformed into highly reactive, cyclopentadiene covered analogues. These surfaces undergo rapid cycloaddition reactions with various dienophile-capped polymers. Mild heating of the substrates causes the retro-Diels-Alder reaction to occur, thus reforming the reactive cyclopentadiene surface, generating an efficiently switchable surface.

Photoclickable surfaces for profluorescent covalent polymer coatings

The nitrile imine-mediated tetrazole-ene cycloaddition reaction (NITEC) is introduced as a powerful and versatile conjugation tool to covalently ligate macromolecules onto variable (bio)surfaces. The NITEC approach is initiated by UV irradiation and proceeds rapidly at ambient temperature yielding a highly fluorescent linkage. Initially, the formation of block copolymers by the NITEC methodology is studied to evidence its efficacy as a macromolecular conjugation tool. The grafting of polymers onto inorganic (silicon) and bioorganic (cellulose) surfaces is subsequently carried out employing the optimized reaction conditions obtained from the macromolecular ligation experiments and evidenced by surface characterization techniques, including X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy and FT-IR microscopy. In addition, the patterned immobilization of variable polymer chains onto profluorescent cellulose is achieved through a simple masking process during the irradiation. Photoinduced nitrile imine-alkene 1,3-dipolar cycloaddition (NITEC) is employed to covalently bind well-defined polymers onto silicon oxide or cellulose. A diaryl tetrazole-functionalized molecule is grafted via silanization or amidification, respectively. Under UV light, a reactive nitrile imine rapidly forms and reacts with maleimide-functionalized polymers yielding a fluorescent linkage. Via a masking method, polymeric fluorescent patterns are achieved.

(Ultra)fast catalyst-free macromolecular conjugation in aqueous environment at ambient temperature

Tailor-made water-soluble macromolecules, including a glycopolymer, obtained by living/controlled RAFT-mediated polymerization are demonstrated to react in water with diene-functionalized poly(ethylene glycol)s without pre- or post-functionalization steps or the need for a catalyst at ambient temperature. As previously observed in organic solvents, hetero-Diels-Alder (HDA) conjugations reached quantitative conversion within minutes when cyclopentadienyl moieties were involved. However, while catalysts and elevated temperatures were previously necessary for open-chain diene conjugation, additive-free HDA cycloadditions occur in water within a few hours at ambient temperature. Experimental evidence for efficient conjugations is provided via unambiguous ESI-MS, UV/vis, NMR, and SEC data.

Chaos and creativity of play : designing emotional engagement in public spaces

How do we create strong urban narratives? How do we create affection for our cities? Play, an essential part of any species' biological existence and development, can often be perceived as chaotic and derogatory to social and spatial order. Play is also often perceived as a creative force which generates social and spatial value. This paper looks at the design approaches to both chaotic and creative perceptions of publics at play in urban space. Commonly, Urban and Architectural Design constitutes reactive management of perceived chaos, which derogatorily effects our sensory and emotional engagement with space. Alternatively, Urban and Architectural Design can appeal to the creativity of play, by encouraging unsolicited novelty that is vital to strong experiential narratives in the city and iterating environments that encourage the emergence of physical, emotional and cultural invention. These perceptions of chaos and creativity affect the design methodology of professional practice. Tested through the exciting vehicle of Parkour as urban narrative, the constraints and opportunities of both approaches are presented.

Persistent digital hyperthermia over a 48 h period does not induce laminitis in horses

Persistent digital hyperthermia, presumably due to vasodilation, occurs during the developmental and acute stages of insulin-induced laminitis. The objectives of this study were to determine if persistent digital hyperthermia is the principal pathogenic mechanism responsible for the development of laminitis. The potent vasodilator, ATP-MgCl 2 was infused continuously into the distal phalanx of the left forefoot of six Standardbred racehorses for 48h via intra-osseous infusion to promote persistent digital hyperthermia. The right forefoot was infused with saline solution and acted as an internal control. Clinical signs of lameness at the walk were not detected at 0h, 24h or 48h post-infusion. Mean±SE hoof wall temperatures of the left forefoot (29.4±0.25°C) were higher (P<0.05) than those on the right (27.5±0.38°C). Serum insulin (15.0±2.89μIU/mL) and blood glucose (5.4±0.22mM) concentrations remained unchanged during the experiment. Histopathological evidence of laminitis was not detected in any horse. The results demonstrated that digital vasodilation up to 30 °C for a period of 48. h does not trigger laminitis in the absence of hyperinsulinaemia. Thus, although digital hyperthermia may play a role in the pathogenesis of laminitis, it is not the sole mechanism involved.