990 resultados para Markov states
Resumo:
Dataq uantifying the area of habitat affected by Federal programs that regulate development in coastal zones of the southeastern United States are provided for 1988. The National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS) made recommendations on 3,935 proposals requiring Federal permits or licenses to alter wetlands. A survey of 977 of these activities revealed that 359,876 acres of wetlands that support fishery resources under NMFS purview were proposed for some type of alteration or manipulation. Almost 95 percent of this acreage was for impounding andl/or manipulation of water levels in Louisiana marshes. The NMFS did not object to alteration of 173,284 acres and recommended the conservation of 186,592 acres. To offset habitat losses, 1,827 acres of mitigation were recommended by the NMFS or proposed by applicants and/or the Corps of Engineers (COE). From 1981 to 1988 the NMFS has provided in depth analyses on 8,385 projects proposing the alteration of at least 656,377 acres of wetlands. A follow-up survey on the disposition of 339 permits handled by the COE during 1988 revealed that the COE accepted NMFS recommendations on 68 percent. On a permit-by-permit basis, 13 percent of NMFS recommendations were partially accepted, 17 percent were completely rejected, and 2 percent were withdrawn. The permit requests tracked by the NMFS proposed the alteration of 2,674 acres of wetlands. The COE issued permits to alter 847 acres or 32 percent of the amount proposed.
Resumo:
The widespread implementation of Extended Fisheries Jurisdiction (EFJ) has confronted coastal states with several resource management problems. One of these consists of the economic relations, if any, that the coastal state should establish with distant-water fishing nations (DWFN's) seeking access to the coastal state's 200-mile zone. Several of the other papers presented here deal with specific aspects of the issue. This paper, on the other hand, will concern itself with the question of the analytical framework to be used by economists in studying this issue. It will offer some suggestions with respect to possible components of the framework. In doing so, the paper will restrict itself to the coastal state's perspective of EFJ and the management issues arising therefrom. It goes without saying, of course, that an enlightened coastal state will attempt to acquaint itself with the DWFN view of the world.
Resumo:
Este trabalho avalia o comportamento dos multiplicadores fiscais no Brasil entre 1999-2012. Para tanto, utiliza a metodologia desenvolvida por Sims, Waggoner e Zha (2008), que é um procedimento Bayesiano de estimação no qual os parâmetros do modelo mudam com alterações no estado da economia e os estados (regimes) seguem um processo de mudança de regime markoviano. Ou seja, foi estimado um modelo VAR Estrutural Bayesiano com mudança de regimes Markoviana (Markov Switching Structural Bayesian Vector Autoregression - MS-SBVAR). A base de dados é composta pelo consumo da administração pública, pela formação bruta de capital fixo da administração pública, pela carga tributária líquida e pelo Produto Interno Bruto (PIB), das três esferas do governo (federal, estadual, incluindo o Distrito Federal, e municipal). O software MATLAB/Dynare foi utilizado na estimação dos modelos e os resultados sugerem a ocorrência de 2 ou 3 regimes nos dois modelos que melhor se ajustaram aos dados. Os multiplicadores estimados apresentaram os sinais esperados e os diferentes tipos de multiplicadores fiscais calculados apresentaram valores maiores para a resposta do PIB a choques na formação bruta de capital fixo da administração pública que são eficazes, uma vez que possuem valores maiores do que um e impacto de longo prazo no PIB - quando comparado aos choques no consumo da administração pública, que possuem pouca persistência e são ineficazes (menores do que um), além de uma resposta negativa e persistente do PIB a choques na carga tributária líquida. Os resultados obtidos não indicam, ainda, multiplicadores fiscais maiores em regimes com maior variância nos resíduos do modelo.