Design and implementation of a multicriteria medical decision support system for diagnosis and treatment

Health care providers face the problem of trying to make decisions with inadequate information and also with an overload of (often contradictory) information. Physicians often choose treatment long before they know which disease is present. Indeed, uncertainty is intrinsic to the practice of medicine. Decision analysis can help physicians structure and work through a medical decision problem, and can provide reassurance that decisions are rational and consistent with the beliefs and preferences of other physicians and patients. ^ The primary purpose of this research project is to develop the theory, methods, techniques and tools necessary for designing and implementing a system to support solving medical decision problems. A case study involving “abdominal pain” serves as a prototype for implementing the system. The research, however, focuses on a generic class of problems and aims at covering theoretical as well as practical aspects of the system developed. ^ The main contributions of this research are: (1) bridging the gap between the statistical approach and the knowledge-based (expert) approach to medical decision making; (2) linking a collection of methods, techniques and tools together to allow for the design of a medical decision support system, based on a framework that involves the Analytic Network Process (ANP), the generalization of the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) to dependence and feedback, for problems involving diagnosis and treatment; (3) enhancing the representation and manipulation of uncertainty in the ANP framework by incorporating group consensus weights; and (4) developing a computer program to assist in the implementation of the system. ^

Driving and dementia: a clinical decision pathway

OBJECTIVE This study aimed to develop a pathway to bring together current UK legislation, good clinical practice and appropriate management strategies that could be applied across a range of healthcare settings. METHODS The pathway was constructed by a multidisciplinary clinical team based in a busy Memory Assessment Service. A process of successive iteration was used to develop the pathway, with input and refinement provided via survey and small group meetings with individuals from a wide range of regional clinical networks and diverse clinical backgrounds as well as discussion with mobility centres and Forum of Mobility Centres, UK. RESULTS We present a succinct clinical pathway for patients with dementia, which provides a decision-making framework for how health professionals across a range of disciplines deal with patients with dementia who drive. CONCLUSIONS By integrating the latest guidance from diverse roles within older people's health services and key experts in the field, the resulting pathway reflects up-to-date policy and encompasses differing perspectives and good practice. It is potentially a generalisable pathway that can be easily adaptable for use internationally, by replacing UK legislation for local regulations. A limitation of this pathway is that it does not address the concern of mild cognitive impairment and how this condition relates to driving safety. © 2014 The Authors. International Journal of Geriatric Psychiatry published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Decision making in beach volleyball defense: Crucial factors derived from interviews with top-level experts

Objectives: In fast ball sports like beach volleyball, decision-making skills are a determining factor for excellent performance. The current investigation aimed to identify factors that influence the decisionmaking process in top-level beach volleyball defense in order to find relevant aspects for further research. For this reason, focused interviews with top players in international beach volleyball were conducted and analyzed with respect to decision-making characteristics. Design: Nineteen world-tour beach volleyball defense players, including seven Olympic or world champions, were interviewed, focusing on decision-making factors, gaze behavior, and interactions between the two. Methods: Verbal data were analyzed by inductive content analysis according to Mayring (2008). This approach allows categories to emerge from the interview material itself instead of forcing data into preset classifications and theoretical concepts. Results: The data analysis showed that, for top-level beach volleyball defense, decision making depends on opponent specifics, external context, situational context, opponent's movements, and intuition. Information on gaze patterns and visual cues revealed general tendencies indicating optimal gaze strategies that support excellent decision making. Furthermore, the analysis highlighted interactions between gaze behavior, visual information, and domain-specific knowledge. Conclusions: The present findings provide information on visual perception, domain-specific knowledge, and interactions between the two that are relevant for decision making in top-level beach volleyball defense. The results can be used to inform sports practice and to further untangle relevant mechanisms underlying decision making in complex game situations.

Self-control in social decision making: A neurobiological perspective

Self-control is defined as the process in which thoughts, emotions, or prepotent responses are inhibited to efficiently enact a more focal goal. Self-control not only allows for more adaptive individual decision making but also promotes adaptive social decision making. In this chapter, we examine a burgeoning area of interdisciplinary research: the neuroscience of self-control in social decision making. We examine research on self-control in complex social contexts examined from a social neuroscience perspective. We review correlational evidence from neuroimaging studies and causal evidence from neuromodulation studies (i.e., brain stimulation). We specifically highlight research that shows that self-control involves the lateral prefrontal cortex (PFC) across a number of social domains and behaviors. Research has also begun to directly integrate nonsocial with social forms of self-control, showing that the basic neurobiological processes involved in stopping a motor response appear to be involved in social contexts that require self-control. Further, neural traits, such as baseline activation in the lateral PFC, can explain sources of individual differences in self-control capacity. We explore whether techniques that change brain functioning could target neural mechanisms related to self-control capacity to potentially enhance self-control in social behavior. Finally, we discuss several research questions ripe for examination. We broadly suggest that future research can now turn to exploring how neural traits and situational affordances interact to impact self-control in social decision making in order to continue to elucidate the processes that allow people to maintain and realize stable goals in a dynamic and often uncertain social environment.

Applying the fuzzy analytical hierarchy process in digital marketing

The fuzzy analytical network process (FANP) is introduced as a potential multi-criteria-decision-making (MCDM) method to improve digital marketing management endeavors. Today’s information overload makes digital marketing optimization, which is needed to continuously improve one’s business, increasingly difficult. The proposed FANP framework is a method for enhancing the interaction between customers and marketers (i.e., involved stakeholders) and thus for reducing the challenges of big data. The presented implementation takes realities’ fuzziness into account to manage the constant interaction and continuous development of communication between marketers and customers on the Web. Using this FANP framework, the marketers are able to increasingly meet the varying requirements of their customers. To improve the understanding of the implementation, advanced visualization methods (e.g., wireframes) are used.

The relation of secondary student's career choice readiness to a six-phase model of career decision-making

Based on common aspects of recent models of career decision-making (CDM) a sixphase model of CDM for secondary students is presented and empirically evaluated. The study tested the hypothesis that students who are in later phases possess more career choice readiness and consider different numbers of career alternatives. 266 Swiss secondary students completed measures tapping phase of CDM, career choice readiness, and number of considered career options. Career choice readiness showed an increase with phase of CDM. Later phases were generally associated with a larger increase in career choice readiness. Number of considered career options showed a curve-linear development with fewer options considered at the beginning and at the end of the process. Male students showed a larger variability in their distribution among the process with more male than female students in the first and last phase of the process. Implications for theory and practice are presented.

Decision-Making Processes in Voluntary Football Clubs in Relation to External Counselling

Introduction Recruiting and retaining volunteers who are prepared to make a long-term commitment is a major problem for Swiss sports clubs. With the inclusion of external counselling for the change and systematisation of volunteer management, sports clubs have a possibility to develop and defuse problems in spite of existing barriers and gaps in knowledge. To what extent is external counselling for personnel problems effective? It is often observed that standardised counselling inputs lead to varying consequences for sports clubs. It can be assumed that external impulses are interpreted and transformed differently into the workings of the club. However, this cannot be solely attributed to the situational or structural conditions of the clubs. It is also important to consider the underlying decision-making processes of a club. According to Luhmann’s organisational sociological considerations (2000), organisations (sports clubs) have to be viewed as social systems consisting of (communicated) decisions. This means that organisations are continually reproduced by decision-making processes. All other (observable) factors such as an organisation’s goals, recruiting strategies, support schemes for volunteers etc., have to be seen as an outcome of the operation of prior organisational decisions. Therefore: How do decision-making processes in sports clubs work in the context of the implementation of external counselling? Theoretical Framework An examination of the actual situation in sports clubs shows that decisions frequently appear to be shaped by inconsistency, unexpected outcomes, and randomness (Amis & Slack, 2003). Therefore, it must be emphasised that these decisions cannot be analysed according to any rational decision-making model. Their specific structural characteristics only permit a limited degree of rationality – bounded rationality. Non-profit organisations in particular are shaped by a specific mode of decisionmaking that Cohen, March, and Olsen (1972) have called the “garbage can model”. As sport clubs can also be conceived as “organised anarchies”, this model seems to offer an appropriate approach to understanding their practices and analysing their decision-making processes. The key concept in the garbage can model is the assumption that decision-making processes in organisations consist of four “streams”: (a) problems, (b) actors, (c) decision-making opportunities, and (d) solutions. Method Before presenting the method of the analysis of the decision-making processes in sports clubs, the external counselling will be described. The basis of the counselling is generated by a sports clubs’ capability to change. Due to the specific structural characteristics and organisational principles, change processes in sports clubs often merge with barriers and restrictions. These need to be considered when developing counselling guidelines for a successful planning and realisation of change processes. Furthermore, important aspects of personnel management in sports clubs and especially volunteer management must be implied in order to elaborate key elements for the counselling to recruit new volunteers (e.g., approach, expectations). A counselling of four system-counselling workshops was conceptualised by considering these specific characteristics. The decision-making processes in the sports clubs were analysed during the counselling and the implementation process. A case study is designed with the appropriate methodological approach for such explorative research. The approach adopted for these single case analyses was oriented toward the research program of behavioural decision-making theory (garbage can model). This posits that in-depth insights into organisational decision-making processes can only be gained through relevant case studies of existing organisational situations (Skille, 2013). Before, during and after the intervention, questionnaires and guided interviews were conducted with the project teams of the twelve par-ticipating football clubs to assess the different components of the “streams” in the context of external counselling. These interviews have been analysed using content analysis following guidelines as for-mulated by Mayring (2010). Results The findings show that decision-making processes in football clubs occur differently in the context of external counselling. Different initial positions and problems are the triggers for these decision-making processes. Furthermore, the implementation of the solutions and the external counselling is highly dependent on the commitment of certain people as central players within the decision-mak-ing process. The importance of these relationships is confirmed by previous findings in regard to decision-making and change processes in sports clubs. The decision-making processes in sports clubs can be theoretically analysed using behavioural decision-making theory and the “garbage can model”. Bounded rationality characterises all “streams” of the decision-making processes. Moreo-ver, the decision-making process of the football clubs can be well illustrated in the framework, and the interplay of the different dimensions illustrates the different decision-making practices within the football clubs. References Amis, J., & Slack, T. (2003). Analysing sports organisations: Theory and practice. In B. Houlihan (Eds.), Sport & Society (pp. 201–217). London, England: Sage. Cohen, M.D., March, J.G., & Olsen, J.P. (1972). A garbage can model of organisational choice. Ad-ministrative Science Quarterly, 17, 1-25. Luhmann, N. (2000). Organisation und Entscheidung. Opladen: Westdeutscher Verlag. Mayring, P. (2010). Qualitative Inhaltsanalyse. Grundlagen und Techniken. Weinheim: Beltz. Skille, E. Å. (2013). Case study research in sport management: A reflection upon the theory of science and an empirical example. In S. Söderman & H. Dolles (Eds.), Handbook of research on sport and business (pp. 161–175). Cheltenham, England: Edward Elgar.

How do sport clubs recruit volunteers? Analyzing and developing a typology of decision-making processes on recruiting volunteers in sport clubs.

Effective strategies for recruiting volunteers who are prepared to make a long-term commitment to formal positions are essential for the survival of voluntary sport clubs. This article examines the decision-making processes in relation to these efforts. Under the assumption of bounded rationality, the garbage can model is used to grasp these decision-making processes theoretically and access them empirically. Based on case study framework an in-depth analysis of recruitment practices was conducted in nine selected sport clubs. Results showed that the decision-making processes are generally characterized by a reactive approach in which dominant actors try to handle personnel problems of recruitment in the administration and sport domains through routine formal committee work and informal networks. In addition, it proved possible to develop a typology that deliver an overview of different decision-making practices in terms of the specific interplay of the relevant components of process control (top-down vs. bottom-up) and problem processing (situational vs. systematic).

Guidelines for WB3 Part III: Stakeholder workshop 2: Selection and decision on prevention and mitigation strategies to be implemented

These guidelines were developed in the context of working block 3 of the DESIRE project. They address the facilitators in the 18 DESIRE study sites and support them in conducting stakeholder workshops aiming at the selection and decision on mitigation strategies to be implemented in the study site context. The decision-making process is supported by a multi-objective decision support system (MODSS) Software called 'Facilitator'.

Soil and land information: How to support decision-making?

Soils are fundamental to ensuring water, energy and food security. Within the context of sus- tainable food production, it is important to share knowledge on existing and emerging tech- nologies that support land and soil monitoring. Technologies, such as remote sensing, mobile soil testing, and digital soil mapping, have the potential to identify degraded and non- /little-responsive soils, and may also provide a basis for programmes targeting the protection and rehabilitation of soils. In the absence of such information, crop production assessments are often not based on the spatio-temporal variability in soil characteristics. In addition, uncertain- ties in soil information systems are notable and build up when predictions are used for monitor- ing soil properties or biophysical modelling. Consequently, interpretations of model-based results have to be done cautiously. As such they provide a scientific, but not always manage- able, basis for farmers and/or policymakers. In general, the key incentives for stakeholders to aim for sustainable management of soils and more resilient food systems are complex at farm as well as higher levels. The same is true of drivers of soil degradation. The decision- making process aimed at sustainable soil management, be that at farm or higher level, also in- volves other goals and objectives valued by stakeholders, e.g. land governance, improved envi- ronmental quality, climate change adaptation and mitigation etc. In this dialogue session we will share ideas on recent developments in the discourse on soils, their functions and the role of soil and land information in enhancing food system resilience.

Global Optimization with Sparse and Local Gaussian Process Models

We present a novel surrogate model-based global optimization framework allowing a large number of function evaluations. The method, called SpLEGO, is based on a multi-scale expected improvement (EI) framework relying on both sparse and local Gaussian process (GP) models. First, a bi-objective approach relying on a global sparse GP model is used to determine potential next sampling regions. Local GP models are then constructed within each selected region. The method subsequently employs the standard expected improvement criterion to deal with the exploration-exploitation trade-off within selected local models, leading to a decision on where to perform the next function evaluation(s). The potential of our approach is demonstrated using the so-called Sparse Pseudo-input GP as a global model. The algorithm is tested on four benchmark problems, whose number of starting points ranges from 102 to 104. Our results show that SpLEGO is effective and capable of solving problems with large number of starting points, and it even provides significant advantages when compared with state-of-the-art EI algorithms.

Decision Support Models for Composing and Navigating through e-Learning Objects

Libraries of learning objects may serve as basis for deriving course offerings that are customized to the needs of different learning communities or even individuals. Several ways of organizing this course composition process are discussed. Course composition needs a clear understanding of the dependencies between the learning objects. Therefore we discuss the metadata for object relationships proposed in different standardization projects and especially those suggested in the Dublin Core Metadata Initiative. Based on these metadata we construct adjacency matrices and graphs. We show how Gozinto-type computations can be used to determine direct and indirect prerequisites for certain learning objects. The metadata may also be used to define integer programming models which can be applied to support the instructor in formulating his specifications for selecting objects or which allow a computer agent to automatically select learning objects. Such decision models could also be helpful for a learner navigating through a library of learning objects. We also sketch a graph-based procedure for manual or automatic sequencing of the learning objects.

Prophylactic mastectomy and oophorectomy for women at risk of breast and ovarian cancer: Incorporating preferences in a decision analysis

The discoveries of the BRCA1 and BRCA2 genes have made it possible for women of families with hereditary breast/ovarian cancer to determine if they carry cancer-predisposing genetic mutations. Women with germline mutations have significantly higher probabilities of developing both cancers than the general population. Since the presence of a BRCA1 or BRCA2 mutation does not guarantee future cancer development, the appropriate course of action remains uncertain for these women. Prophylactic mastectomy and oophorectomy remain controversial since the underlying premise for surgical intervention is based more upon reduction in the estimated risk of cancer than on actual evidence of clinical benefit. Issues that are incorporated in a woman's decision making process include quality of life without breasts, ovaries, attitudes toward possible surgical morbidity as well as a remaining risk of future development of breast/ovarian cancer despite prophylactic surgery. The incorporation of patient preferences into decision analysis models can determine the quality-adjusted survival of different prophylactic approaches to breast/ovarian cancer prevention. Monte Carlo simulation was conducted on 4 separate decision models representing prophylactic oophorectomy, prophylactic mastectomy, prophylactic oophorectomy/mastectomy and screening. The use of 3 separate preference assessment methods across different populations of women allows researchers to determine how quality adjusted survival varies according to clinical strategy, method of preference assessment and the population from which preferences are assessed. ^

Grief, Physical Symptoms, and Decision-Making in Mothers of Newborns Who Die

The purpose of this study was to describe predictors of level of grief and physical symptoms in mothers during the year after a newborn death. This was undertaken to fmd better ways to help these mothers during this crisis. Following appropriate approvals, volunteer subjects were contacted through hospitals, the Internet, and a health department. Of the 75 who responded, 77% were White and married, 64% were Christian. 51 % had other living children, 72% had had no prior pregnancy losses, 87% had support with decision-making about newborn care, and their mean age was 30 yrs. Once subjects had agreed to take Par4 the survey and consent form were sent to them. Study outcome variables were: Total scores on the Perinatal Grief Scale, Short Version (level of grief; T oedter, Lasker, & Alhadeff. 1988) and Sickness Impact Profile 68 (level of physical symptoms; de Bruin, Buys, de Witte, & Diederiks, 1994). Predictor variables were total scores on the Personal Resources Questionnaire 85, Part U (perceived support; Brandt & Weinert, 1981); Relationship Satisfaction Questionnaire (relationship satisfaction; Olson & McCubbin, 1983); Emotion-Focused. Problem-Focused, and Mixed Coping Subscales (emotion-focused, problem-focused, and mixed coping; Lazarus & Folkman, 1988); interval since death, ethnicity, religion, socioeconomic status, gestational age, and presence of living children. Coefficient alphas for scales were all over .75. In two stepwise-hierarchical multiple regressions, perceived support and emotion- focused coping combined to predict 43% of the variance in level of grief, and level of grief alone predicted 50% of the variance in level of physical symptoms. In written comments, mothers said they valued their role in decision-making about newborn care even with death as the result. and felt supported in that process. Findings may be used to design intervention programs to help bereaved mothers following a newborn death. Specifically, programs can help increase perceived support for bereaved mothers, and teach new ways of coping. Both strategies may result in lower levels of grief and physical symptoms in this group of bereaved mothers.

Patient perceptions of balance in prostate cancer screening decision aids

Purpose. Recent reports reveals that studies of decision aids reported concern about the balance and accuracy of information included in decision aids. This study explores measures of balance in patient decision aids through a review of prostate cancer screening decision aid studies and analysis of patients’ rating of a patient decision aid for prostate cancer screening. ^ Methods. A data-abstraction form was used to collect the key characteristics, pertaining to balance, of studies included in the review. The key characteristics included (1) sample characteristics (age, race, family history of prostate cancer, and education), (2) description of the decision aid and how it was implemented, and (3) if a measure of balance was used for process evaluation and the rating. A summary table was used to report the findings. Deidentified data was received from a decision aid control trial and logistic regression analysis was used to test the association between the dependent variable (balance) and the independent variables (age, family history, race, screening preference at baseline, education, health insurance status). ^ Conclusion. Three sociodemographic variables remained significant in the final regression model: African American race, education and PSA history. Further research is needed to determine if these variables can predict a man’s perception of balance in prostate cancer screening decision aids. If a patient’s perceptions of balance can be predicted based on specific characteristics, patient report may not be the most objective method of evaluating the acceptability of a decision.^