Understanding the processes governing climate variability and change, climate predictability and the probability of extreme events

The purpose of Research Theme 4 (RT4) was to advance understanding of the basic science issues at the heart of the ENSEMBLES project, focusing on the key processes that govern climate variability and change, and that determine the predictability of climate. Particular attention was given to understanding linear and non-linear feedbacks that may lead to climate surprises,and to understanding the factors that govern the probability of extreme events. Improved understanding of these issues will contribute significantly to the quantification and reduction of uncertainty in seasonal to decadal predictions and projections of climate change. RT4 exploited the ENSEMBLES integrations (stream 1) performed in RT2A as well as undertaking its own experimentation to explore key processes within the climate system. It was working at the cutting edge of problems related to climate feedbacks, the interaction between climate variability and climate change � especially how climate change pertains to extreme events, and the predictability of the climate system on a range of time-scales. The statisticalmethodologies developed for extreme event analysis are new and state-of-the-art. The RT4-coordinated experiments, which have been conducted with six different atmospheric GCMs forced by common timeinvariant sea surface temperature (SST) and sea-ice fields (removing some sources of inter-model variability), are designed to help to understand model uncertainty (rather than scenario or initial condition uncertainty) in predictions of the response to greenhouse-gas-induced warming. RT4 links strongly with RT5 on the evaluation of the ENSEMBLES prediction system and feeds back its results to RT1 to guide improvements in the Earth system models and, through its research on predictability, to steer the development of methods for initialising the ensembles

The social relations of business representation and devolved governance in the United Kingdom

The reform of regional governance in the United Kingdom has been, in part, premised on the notion that regions provide new territories of action in which cooperative networks between business communities and state-agencies can be established. Promoting business interests is seen as one mechanism for enhancing the economic competitiveness and performance of 'laggard' regions. Yet, within this context of change, business agendas and capacities are often assumed to exist 'out there, as a resource waiting to be tapped by state institutions. There is little recognition that business organisations' involvement in networks of governance owes much to historical patterns and practices of business representation, to the types of activities that exist within the business sector, and to interpretations of their own role and position within wider policymaking and implementation networks. This paper, drawing on a study of business agendas in post-devolution Scotland, demonstrates that in practice business agendas are highly complex. Their formation in any particular place depends on the actions of reflexive agents, whose perspectives and capacities are shaped by the social, economic, and political contexts within which they are operating. As such, any understanding of business agendas needs to identify the social relations of business as a whole, rather than assuming away such complexities.

Analysis of the antigen combining site: Correlations between length and sequence composition of the hypervariable loops and the nature of the antigen

It has long been suggested that the overall shape of the antigen combining site (ACS) of antibodies is correlated with the nature of the antigen. For example, deep pockets are characteristic of antibodies that bind haptens, grooves indicate peptide binders, while antibodies that bind to proteins have relatively flat combining sites. In. 1996, MacCallum, Martin and Thornton used a fractal shape descriptor and showed a strong correlation of the shape of the binding region with the general nature of the antigen. However, the shape of the ACS is determined primarily by the lengths of the six complementarity-determining regions (CDRs). Here, we make a direct correlation between the lengths of the CDRs and the nature of the antigen. In addition, we show significant differences in the residue composition of the CDRs of antibodies that bind to different antigen classes. As well as helping us to understand the process of antigen recognition, autoimmune disease and cross-reactivity these results are of direct application in the design of antibody phage libraries and modification of affinity. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

European plant phenology and climate as seen in a 20-year AVHRR land-surface parameter dataset

Vegetation distribution and state have been measured since 1981 by the AVHRR (Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer) instrument through satellite remote sensing. In this study a correction method is applied to the Pathfinder NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) data to create a continuous European vegetation phenology dataset of a 10-day temporal and 0.1° spatial resolution; additionally, land surface parameters for use in biosphere–atmosphere modelling are derived. The analysis of time-series from this dataset reveals, for the years 1982–2001, strong seasonal and interannual variability in European land surface vegetation state. Phenological metrics indicate a late and short growing season for the years 1985–1987, in addition to early and prolonged activity in the years 1989, 1990, 1994 and 1995. These variations are in close agreement with findings from phenological measurements at the surface; spring phenology is also shown to correlate particularly well with anomalies in winter temperature and winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index. Nevertheless, phenological metrics, which display considerable regional differences, could only be determined for vegetation with a seasonal behaviour. Trends in the phenological phases reveal a general shift to earlier (−0.54 days year−1) and prolonged (0.96 days year−1) growing periods which are statistically significant, especially for central Europe.

Foreword: International Space Science Institute (ISSI) workshop on the Earth’s cryosphere and sea level change

Rising sea level is perhaps the most severe consequence of climate warming, as much of the world’s population and infrastructure is located near current sea level (Lemke et al. 2007). A major rise of a metre or more would cause serious problems. Such possibilities have been suggested by Hansen and Sato (2011) who pointed out that sea level was several metres higher than now during the Holsteinian and Eemian interglacials (about 250,000 and 120,000 years ago, respectively), even though the global temperature was then only slightly higher than it is nowadays. It is consequently of the utmost importance to determine whether such a sea level rise could occur and, if so, how fast it might happen. Sea level undergoes considerable changes due to natural processes such as the wind, ocean currents and tidal motions. On longer time scales, the sea level is influenced by steric effects (sea water expansion caused by temperature and salinity changes of the ocean) and by eustatic effects caused by changes in ocean mass. Changes in the Earth’s cryosphere, such as the retreat or expansion of glaciers and land ice areas, have been the dominant cause of sea level change during the Earth’s recent history. During the glacial cycles of the last million years, the sea level varied by a large amount, of the order of 100 m. If the Earth’s cryosphere were to disappear completely, the sea level would rise by some 65 m. The scientific papers in the present volume address the different aspects of the Earth’s cryosphere and how the different changes in the cryosphere affect sea level change. It represents the outcome of the first workshop held within the new ISSI Earth Science Programme. The workshop took place from 22 to 26 March, 2010, in Bern, Switzerland, with the objective of providing an in-depth insight into the future of mountain glaciers and the large land ice areas of Antarctica and Greenland, which are exposed to natural and anthropogenic climate influences, and their effects on sea level change. The participants of the workshop are experts in different fields including meteorology, climatology, oceanography, glaciology and geodesy; they use advanced space-based observational studies and state-of-the-art numerical modelling.

Roman public libraries

This thesis aims to investigate the development and functions of public libraries in Rome and the Roman world. After a preface with maps of libraries in Rome, Section I discusses the precursors for public library provision in the private book collections of Republican Rome, and their transfer into the public domain with the first public libraries of Asinius Pollio and Augustus. Section II contains three 'case studies' of public libraries' different roles. The Augustan library programme is used in Ch.II.l to examine the role of imperial public libraries in literary life and the connections between Rome's libraries and those of Alexandria. Chapter II.2 concentrates on the libraries of Trajan's Forum to explore the intersection of imperial public libraries and monumental public architecture. This chapter responds to an important recent article by arguing for the continued identification of the Forum's libraries with twin brick buildings at its northern end, and suggests a series of correspondences between these libraries and its other monumental components. The conclusions of this chapter are important when considering the public libraries of the wider empire, several of which seem to have been inspired by the Trajanic libraries. Chapter II.3 considers imperial public libraries and leisure by looking at the evidence for libraries within bath-house complexes, concluding that their presence there is consistent with the archaeological and epigraphic evidence and fits in well with what we know of the intellectual and cultural life of these structures. Section III examines various aspects of the practical function of Roman public libraries: their contents (books and archives), division into Latin and Greek sections, provisions for shelving and cataloguing, staff, usership, architectural form, decoration, and housing of works of art. The picture that emerges is of carefully designed and functional buildings intended to sustain public, monumental, and practical functions. Section IV uses a variety of texts to examine the way in which libraries were viewed and used. Ch. IV. 1 discusses the evidence for use of libraries by scholars and authors such as Gellius, Galen, Josephus, and Apuleius. Ch. IV.2 examines parallels between library collections and compendious encyclopaedic elements within Roman literature and considers how library collections came to be canon-forming institutions and vehicles for the expression of imperial approval or disapproval towards authors. The channels through which this imperial influence flowed are investigated in Ch. IV.3, which looks at the directors and staff of the public libraries of Rome. The final section (V) of the thesis concerns public libraries outside the city of Rome. Provincial libraries provide a useful case study in 'Romanisation': they reveal a range of influences and are shown to embody local, personal, and metropolitan imperial identities. There follows a brief conclusion, and a bibliography. There are also five appendices of numismatic and epigraphic material discussed in the text. This material has not been adequately or completely gathered elsewhere and is intended to assist the reader; where appropriate it includes illustrations, transcriptions, and translations.

Critical slip and time dependence in sea ice friction

Recent research into sea ice friction has focussed on ways to provide a model which maintains much of the clarity and simplicity of Amonton's law, yet also accounts for memory effects. One promising avenue of research has been to adapt the rate- and state- dependent models which are prevalent in rock friction. In such models it is assumed that there is some fixed critical slip displacement, which is effectively a measure of the displacement over which memory effects might be considered important. Here we show experimentally that a fixed critical slip displacement is not a valid assumption in ice friction, whereas a constant critical slip time appears to hold across a range of parameters and scales. As a simple rule of thumb, memory effects persist to a significant level for 10 s. We then discuss the implications of this finding for modelling sea ice friction and for our understanding of friction in general.

Impact of variable atmospheric and oceanic form drag on simulations of Arctic sea ice

Over Arctic sea ice, pressure ridges and floe andmelt pond edges all introduce discrete obstructions to the flow of air or water past the ice and are a source of form drag. In current climate models form drag is only accounted for by tuning the air–ice and ice–ocean drag coefficients, that is, by effectively altering the roughness length in a surface drag parameterization. The existing approach of the skin drag parameter tuning is poorly constrained by observations and fails to describe correctly the physics associated with the air–ice and ocean–ice drag. Here, the authors combine recent theoretical developments to deduce the total neutral form drag coefficients from properties of the ice cover such as ice concentration, vertical extent and area of the ridges, freeboard and floe draft, and the size of floes and melt ponds. The drag coefficients are incorporated into the Los Alamos Sea Ice Model (CICE) and show the influence of the new drag parameterization on the motion and state of the ice cover, with the most noticeable being a depletion of sea ice over the west boundary of the Arctic Ocean and over the Beaufort Sea. The new parameterization allows the drag coefficients to be coupled to the sea ice state and therefore to evolve spatially and temporally. It is found that the range of values predicted for the drag coefficients agree with the range of values measured in several regions of the Arctic. Finally, the implications of the new form drag formulation for the spinup or spindown of the Arctic Ocean are discussed.

Deficits in agency in schizophrenia, and additional deficits in body image, body schema, and internal timing, in passivity symptoms

Individuals with schizophrenia, particularly those with passivity symptoms, may not feel in control of their actions, believing them to be controlled by external agents. Cognitive operations that contribute to these symptoms may include abnormal processing in agency as well as body representations that deal with body schema and body image. However, these operations in schizophrenia are not fully understood, and the questions of general versus specific deficits in individuals with different symptom profiles remain unanswered. Using the projected-hand illusion (a digital video version of the rubber-hand illusion) with synchronous and asynchronous stroking (500 ms delay), and a hand laterality judgment task, we assessed sense of agency, body image, and body schema in 53 people with clinically stable schizophrenia (with a current, past, and no history of passivity symptoms) and 48 healthy controls. The results revealed a stable trait in schizophrenia with no difference between clinical subgroups (sense of agency) and some quantitative (specific) differences depending on the passivity symptom profile (body image and body schema). Specifically, a reduced sense of self-agency was a common feature of all clinical subgroups. However, subgroup comparisons showed that individuals with passivity symptoms (both current and past) had significantly greater deficits on tasks assessing body image and body schema, relative to the other groups. In addition, patients with current passivity symptoms failed to demonstrate the normal reduction in body illusion typically seen with a 500 ms delay in visual feedback (asynchronous condition), suggesting internal timing problems. Altogether, the results underscore self-abnormalities in schizophrenia, provide evidence for both trait abnormalities and state changes specific to passivity symptoms, and point to a role for internal timing deficits as a mechanistic explanation for external cues becoming a possible source of self-body input.

From warfare to welfare: veterans, military charities and the blurred spatiality of post-service welfare in the United Kingdom

The military offers a form of welfare-for-work but when personnel leave they lose this safety net, a loss exacerbated by the rollback neoliberalism of the contemporary welfare state. Increasingly the third sector has stepped in to address veterans’ welfare needs through operating within and across military/civilian and state/market/community spaces and cultures. In this paper we use both veterans’ and military charities’ experiences to analyse the complex politics that govern the liminal boundary zone of post-military welfare. Through exploring ‘crossing’ and ‘bridging’ we conceptualise military charities as ‘boundary subjects’, active yet dependent on the continuation of the civilian-military binary, and argue that the latter is better understood as a multidirectional, multiscalar and contextual continuum. Post-military welfare emerges as a competitive, confused and confusing assemblage that needs to be made more navigable in order to better support the ‘heroic poor’.

Before transparency: control and communication in Early-Modern Europe

Today, transparency is hailed as a key to good governance and economic efficiency, with national states implementing new laws to allow citizens access to information. It is therefore paradoxical that, as shown by a series of crises and scandals, modern governments and international agencies frequently have paid only lip-service to such ideals. Since Jeremy Bentham first introduced the concept of transparency into the language in 1789, few societal debates have sparked so much interest within the academic community, and across a variety of disciplines, using different approaches and methodologies. Within these current debates, however, one fact is striking: the lack of historical reflection about the development of the concept of transparency, both as a principle and as applied in practice, prior to its inception. Accordingly, the aim of this special issue is to contribute to historicising the ways in which communication and control over fiscal policy and state finances operated in early modern European polities.

Urban economic openness and IPO underpricing

We examine the empirical impact of trade openness on the short-run underpricing of initial public offerings (IPOs) using city-level real estate data. This paper represents a first attempt to employ a macroeconomic approach to explain IPO performance. We investigate an openness effect in which urban economic openness (UEO) has a significant impact on the productivity and on the prices of both direct and indirect real estate due to productivity gains of companies in more open areas. This in turn positively affects the firm’s profitability, enhancing the confidence in the local real estate market and the future company performance and decreasing the uncertainty of the IPO valuation. And as a result, we find that issuers have less incentive to underprice the IPO shares. China provides a suitable experimental ground to study the immense underpricing in developing markets, which cannot solely be accounted for by firm specific effects. First, Chinese real estate companies show strong geographic patterns focusing their businesses locally – usually at a city level. Second, we observe a degree of openness which is significantly heterogeneous across Chinese cities. Controlling for company-specific variables, location and state ownership, we find the evidence that companies whose businesses are in economically more open areas experience less IPO underpricing. Our results show high explanatory power and are robust to diverse specifications.

Order and disorder in fiction labyrinths: the librarians` representations in some contemporary cultural productions

This paper, first result of a larger research, proposes a query about some aspects of social representation of libraries and librarians, as they appear in literary and cinematographic productions. Little by little, this query, which arose from purposes of organizing catalogues, revealed elements that established different series, in which the narrative genre (literary or cinematographic) has no relevance to either libraries or librarians` representations. The presence of these elements seems to show some expectations and utopias in relation to the common knowledge, independently from narratives being located in the past, in the present or in the future, stimulating reflection on some medieval and baroque traditions about the library universe and its main characters, the librarians. The cinematographic material selected for research was The time machine, Farenheit 451, The day after tomorrow, Star Wars - episode II and the novels Martin Eden, The man without qualities, The time machine and La sombra del viento.

Health in Brazil 2 Maternal and child health in Brazil: progress and challenges

In the past three decades, Brazil has undergone rapid changes in major social determinants of health and in the organisation of health services. In this report, we examine how these changes have affected indicators of maternal health, child health, and child nutrition. We use data from vital statistics, population censuses, demographic and health surveys, and published reports. In the past three decades, infant mortality rates have reduced substantially, decreasing by 5.5% a year in the 1980s and 1990s, and by 4.4% a year since 2000 to reach 20 deaths per 1000 livebirths in 2008. Neonatal deaths account for 68% of infant deaths. Stunting prevalence among children younger than 5 years decreased from 37% in 1974-75 to 7% in 2006-07. Regional differences in stunting and child mortality also decreased. Access to most maternal-health and child-health interventions increased sharply to almost universal coverage, and regional and socioeconomic inequalities in access to such interventions were notably reduced. The median duration of breastfeeding increased from 2.5 months in the 1970s to 14 months by 2006-07. Official statistics show stable maternal mortality ratios during the past 10 years, but modelled data indicate a yearly decrease of 4%, a trend which might not have been noticeable in official reports because of improvements in death registration and the increased number of investigations into deaths of women of reproductive age. The reasons behind Brazil`s progress include: socioeconomic and demographic changes (economic growth, reduction in income disparities between the poorest and wealthiest populations, urbanisation, improved education of women, and decreased fertility rates), interventions outside the health sector (a conditional cash transfer programme and improvements in water and sanitation), vertical health programmes in the 1980s (promotion of breastfeeding, oral rehydration, and immunisations), creation of a tax-funded national health service in 1988 (coverage of which expanded to reach the poorest areas of the country through the Family Health Program in the mid-1990s); and implementation of many national and state-wide programmes to improve child health and child nutrition and, to a lesser extent, to promote women`s health. Nevertheless, substantial challenges remain, including overmedicalisation of childbirth (nearly 50% of babies are delivered by caesarean section), maternal deaths caused by illegal abortions, and a high frequency of preterm deliveries.

Dental anxiety and trait anxiety: an investigation of their relationship

Background Anxiety related to dental treatment is a fairly common phenomenon. Some studies have shown that there is an association between dental anxiety and general fears and anxiety, neuroticism and general psychological distress. Aim This study was designed to examine the relationship between dental anxiety and trait anxiety. Subjects and methods The sample consisted of 1,030 individuals (688 women; 342 men), aged 30.8 +/- 11.7 years. The Portuguese version of Corah`s Dental Anxiety Scale (DAS) and State-Trait Anxiety Inventory (STAI-T) were used. Results A statistically significant association between high DAS and high STAI-T, but not between high STAI-T and high DAS, was found. The data indicated that subjects with high dental anxiety tend to present with high trait anxiety, but high trait anxiety seems not to predispose to high dental anxiety. Conclusions Our results indicate that dental anxiety is specific, with its own features, and its development is not necessarily associated with trait anxiety.