Immigration and the survival of the welfare state

This paper analyzes the political sustainability of the welfare state in a model where immigration policy is also endogenous. In the model, the skills of the native population are affected by immigration and skill accumulation. Moreover, immigrants affect future policies, once they gain the right to vote. The main finding is that the long-run survival of redistributive policies is linked to an immigration policy specifying both skill and quantity restrictions. In particular, in steady state the unskilled majority admits a limited inflow of unskilled immigrants in order to offset growth in the fraction of skilled voters and maintain a high degree of income redistribution.Interestingly, equilibrium immigration policy shifts from unrestricted skilled immigration,when the country is skill-scarce, to restricted unskilled immigration, as the fraction of native skilled workers increases. The analysis also suggests a new set of variables that may help explain international differences in immigration restrictions.

Explaining movements in the labor share

In this paper we study the evolution of the labor share in the OECD since 1970. We show it is essentially related to the capital-output ratio; that this relationship is shifted by factors like the price of imported materials or the skill mix; and that discrepancies between the marginal product of labor and the real wage (due to, e.g., product market power, union bargaining, and labor adjustment costs) cause departures from it. We provide estimates of the model with panel data on 14 industries and 14 countries for 1973-93 and use them to compute the evolution of the wage gap in Germany and the US.

Technological change and the wealth of nations

We discuss a unified theory of directed technological change and technologyadoption that can shed light on the causes of persistent productivity differencesacross countries. In our model, new technologies are designed in advanced countries and diffuse endogenously to less developed countries. Our framework is richenough to highlight three broad reasons for productivity differences: inappropriatetechnologies, policy-induced barriers to technology adoption, and within-countrymisallocations across sectors due to policy distortions. We also discuss the effectsof two aspects of globalization, trade in goods and migration, on the wealth ofnations through their impact on the direction of technical progress. By doing so,we illustrate some of the equalizing and unequalizing forces of globalization.

Wage inequality in a frictional labor market

Wage inequality in the United States has grown substantially in thepast two decades. Standard supply-demand analysis in the empiricsof inequality (e.g.Katz and Murphy (1992)) indicates that we mayattribute some of this trend to an outward shift in the demand forhigh skilled labor. In this paper we examine a simple static channelin which the wage premium for skill may grow -increased firm entry.We consider a model of wage dispersion where there are two types ofworkers and homogeneous firms must set wages and preferences forwhat type of worker they would like to hire. We find that both thewage differential and the demand for high skill workers can increasewith the proportion of high skill workers -these high skill workerstherefore 'create' their own demand without exogenous factors. Inaddition, within group wage inequality can increase in step with thebetween group wage inequality. Simulations of the model are providedin order to compare the findings with empirical results.

The labor market effects of payroll taxes in a middle-income country: Evidence from Colombia

We use a panel of manufacturing plants from Colombia to analyze how the risein payroll tax rates over the 1980 s and 1990 s affected the labor market.Our estimates indicate that formal wages fall by between 1.4% and 2.3% as aresult of a 10% rise in payroll taxes. This 'less-than-full-shifting' islikely to be the result of weak linkages between benefits and taxes and thepresence of downward wage rigidities induced by a binding minimum wage inColombia. Because the costs of taxation are only partly shifted fromemployers to employees, employment should also fall. Our results indicatethat a 10% increase in payroll taxes lowered formal employment by between4% and 5%. In addition, we find less shifting and larger disemploymenteffects for production than non-production workers. These results suggestthat policies aimed at boosting the relative demand of low-skill workers byreducing social security taxes on those with low earnings may be effectivein a country like Colombia, especially if tax cuts are targeted to indirectbenefits.

Increasing returns, imperfect competition and factor prices

We show how, in general equilibrium models featuring increasing returns, imperfectcompetition and endogenous markups, changes in the scale of economic activity affectincome distribution across factors. Whenever final goods are gross-substitutes (gross-complements), a scale expansion raises (lowers) the relative reward of the scarce factoror the factor used intensively in the sector characterized by a higher degree of product differentiation and higher fixed costs. Under very reasonable hypothesis, our theory suggests that scale is skill-biased. This result provides a microfoundation for the secular increase in the relative demand for skilled labor. Moreover, it constitutes an important link among major explanations for the rise in wage inequality: skill-biased technical change, capital-skill complementarities and international trade. We provide new evidence on the mechanism underlying the skill bias of scale.

When "hope springs eternal": The role of chance in risk taking

In most naturally occurring situations, success depends on both skill and chance. We contrastexperimental market entry decisions where payoffs depend on skill as opposed tocombinations of skill and chance. Our data show differential attitudes toward chance by thosewhose self-assessed skills are low and high. Making chance more important induces greateroptimism for the former who start taking more risk, while the latter maintain a belief that highlevels of skill are sufficient to overcome the vagaries of chance. Finally, although weobserved excess entry (i.e., too many participants entered markets), this could not beattributed to overconfidence.

L'examen clinique du sein : vidéos d'enseignement des compétences cliniques en gynécologie destinés à un module en ligne

Cette thèse présente un travail audiovisuel « L'examen clinique du sein ». Avec l'unité « L'examen génital » elle forme le module « Gynécologie » du projet Virtual Skills Lab (VSL). Le but du projet VSL est d'établir un portail d'enseignement en ligne pour l'enseignement des compétences cliniques (ce terme étant utilisé ici comme équivalent de l'anglais « clinical skills »). Les compétences traitées sont celles exigées par le Catalogue suisse des objectifs d'apprentissage. L'unité « L'examen clinique du sein » est constituée d'une multitude de courtes séquences vidéo qui peuvent être regardées à la suite ou de manière individuelle. Elle est divisée en étapes logiques telles que l'inspection ou la palpation. Chacune de ces étapes appelées « skill » est présentée de deux façons : comme vue d'ensemble et par une approche pas à pas. La séquence « vue d'ensemble » présente le skill en temps réel et représente donc une visualisation du but à atteindre par l'apprenant. Le skill est décomposé en petites étapes (step), les procédures sont montrées au ralenti, munies d'une explication par une voix off. Le format de ces séquences est présenté en double largeur, la partie de gauche montre l'action, la partie de droite est utilisée pour des tableaux ou des graphiques explicatifs. Les différents gestes des compétences cliniques sont rarement standardisés. Pour VSL, un processus de validation sur la base d'un consensus suisse a été mis en place. Ceci ne veut néanmoins pas dire que les modules VSL validés ont été intégrés dans le curriculum de toutes les universités suisses. Vu la complexité des curriculums et la multitude de facteurs entrant enjeu, notamment sur l'intégration des moyens d'enseignement audiovisuels, leur implémentation est une phase critique de tout projet de ce genre. En Suisse, le multilinguisme y ajoute un degré de complexité. A Lausanne, « L'examen clinique du sein » a été introduit aussi bien dans la formation pré- que postgraduée.

Affordable Housing in Iowa: Meeting New Challenges, 2007

Iowa faces a signifi cant challenge over the next decade. In the words of a recent report, “The state faces the danger of worker and skill gaps that could undermine its businesses, erode the earning power of its workers, and slow its economic growth.” (Iowa Works Campaign, 2006) Iowa’s economic and demographic stability depends on attracting new immigrants and slowing the departure of residents. Eroding housing affordability and quality will make this more difficult. Housing alone cannot solve the problem, but it must be part of the solution. This study examines trends in the state’s major housing markets, analyzes the achievements of housing programs in the recent past, and incorporates input from more than 80 housing experts across the state. The second part of this study (included on the attached CD) analyzes housing’s impact on the economy. We developed three major policy recommendations.

Affordable Housing in Iowa: Meeting New Challenges, 2007

Iowa faces a significant challenge over the next decade. In the words of a recent report, “The state faces the danger of worker and skill gaps that could undermine its businesses, erode the earning power of its workers, and slow its economic growth.” (Iowa Works Campaign, 2006) Iowa’s economic and demographic stability depends on attracting new immigrants and slowing the departure of residents. Eroding housing affordability and quality will make this more difficult. Housing alone cannot solve the problem, but it must be part of the solution. This study examines trends in the state’s major housing markets, analyzes the achievements of housing programs in the recent past, and incorporates input from more than 80 housing experts across the state. The second part of this study (included on the attached CD) analyzes housing’s impact on the economy. We developed three major policy recommendations.

Vers un accès à des soins de qualité pour les personnes lesbiennes, gays, bisexuelles et transgenres. [Access to quality primary care for LGBT people].

Cet article propose une approche globale de la santé des personnes lesbiennes, gays, bisexuelles, et transgenres (LGBT), où respect des singularités et non-jugement occupent une position centrale. Il invite à dépasser une vision centrée sur les risques liés au VIH. Pour qui n'a pas connu de questionnement en lien avec son orientation sexuelle ou son identité de genre, il est difficile de concevoir comment la découverte d'une caractéristique identitaire pendant l'enfance peut se transformer sous le regard des autres en un fardeau souvent invisible mais fréquemment associé avec une morbidité émotionnelle et médicale considérable. Cet article pose la question suivante : combien de personnes LGBT ressortent chaque semaine d'une consultation médicale sans avoir eu l'opportunité de bénéficier d'une écoute, d'un soutien et de soins adaptés ? [Abstract] This article offers a comprehensive approach to the health of lesbian, gay, bisexual and transgender (LGBT) people, where respect for diversity and non judgemental care play a central role. It calls for a health and medical vision that goes beyond HIV risk. For those who never had to question their own sexual orientation or gender identity, it is certainly difficult to understand how the discovery of one's identity trait in childhood or early adolescence can be transformed under social pressure into a burden which often remains invisible but is associated with considerable emotional and medical morbidity. This article raises the following question : How many LGBT patients go unnoticed every week, leaving the physician's office without an opportunity to receive appropriate listening, support and care ?

Patient versus general practitioner perception of problems with treatment adherence in type 2 diabetes: from adherence to concordance.

OBJECTIVES: To determine the prevalence of problems with treatment adherence among type-2 diabetic patients with regards to medication, dietary advice, and physical activity; to identify the associated clinical and psychosocial factors; and to investigate the degree of agreement between patient-perceived and GP-perceived adherence. METHODS: Consecutive patients were solicited during visits to 39 GPs. In total, 521 patients self-reported on treatment adherence, anxiety and depression, and disease perception. The GPs reported clinical and laboratory data and patients' adherence. A multivariate analysis identified the factors associated with adherence problems. RESULTS: Problems of adherence to medication, dietary advice, and physical activity recommendations were reported by 17%, 62%, and 47% of the patients, respectively. Six independent factors were found associated with adherence problems: young age, body-mass index (BMI) > 30 kg/m(2), glycosylated haemoglobin (HbA(1c)) > 8%, single life, depression, and perception of medication as a constraint. Agreement between patients' and GPs' assessments of treatment problems reached 70%. CONCLUSION: In type 2 diabetes, problems with dietary advice or physical activity are far more frequent than problems with medication, and not all physicians are fully aware of patients' problems. More active listening and shared decision-making should enhance adherence and improve outcomes.

Business Sphere, Vol. 17, no.3

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A limited area model intercomparison on the "Montserrat-2000" flash-flood event using statistical and deterministic methods

In the scope of the European project Hydroptimet, INTERREG IIIB-MEDOCC programme, limited area model (LAM) intercomparison of intense events that produced many damages to people and territory is performed. As the comparison is limited to single case studies, the work is not meant to provide a measure of the different models' skill, but to identify the key model factors useful to give a good forecast on such a kind of meteorological phenomena. This work focuses on the Spanish flash-flood event, also known as "Montserrat-2000" event. The study is performed using forecast data from seven operational LAMs, placed at partners' disposal via the Hydroptimet ftp site, and observed data from Catalonia rain gauge network. To improve the event analysis, satellite rainfall estimates have been also considered. For statistical evaluation of quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs), several non-parametric skill scores based on contingency tables have been used. Furthermore, for each model run it has been possible to identify Catalonia regions affected by misses and false alarms using contingency table elements. Moreover, the standard "eyeball" analysis of forecast and observed precipitation fields has been supported by the use of a state-of-the-art diagnostic method, the contiguous rain area (CRA) analysis. This method allows to quantify the spatial shift forecast error and to identify the error sources that affected each model forecasts. High-resolution modelling and domain size seem to have a key role for providing a skillful forecast. Further work is needed to support this statement, including verification using a wider observational data set.

Predictive ability of severe rainfall events over Catalonia for the year 2008

This paper analyses the predictive ability of quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPF) and the so-called "poor-man" rainfall probabilistic forecasts (RPF). With this aim, the full set of warnings issued by the Meteorological Service of Catalonia (SMC) for potentially-dangerous events due to severe precipitation has been analysed for the year 2008. For each of the 37 warnings, the QPFs obtained from the limited-area model MM5 have been verified against hourly precipitation data provided by the rain gauge network covering Catalonia (NE of Spain), managed by SMC. For a group of five selected case studies, a QPF comparison has been undertaken between the MM5 and COSMO-I7 limited-area models. Although MM5's predictive ability has been examined for these five cases by making use of satellite data, this paper only shows in detail the heavy precipitation event on the 9¿10 May 2008. Finally, the "poor-man" rainfall probabilistic forecasts (RPF) issued by SMC at regional scale have also been tested against hourly precipitation observations. Verification results show that for long events (>24 h) MM5 tends to overestimate total precipitation, whereas for short events (¿24 h) the model tends instead to underestimate precipitation. The analysis of the five case studies concludes that most of MM5's QPF errors are mainly triggered by very poor representation of some of its cloud microphysical species, particularly the cloud liquid water and, to a lesser degree, the water vapor. The models' performance comparison demonstrates that MM5 and COSMO-I7 are on the same level of QPF skill, at least for the intense-rainfall events dealt with in the five case studies, whilst the warnings based on RPF issued by SMC have proven fairly correct when tested against hourly observed precipitation for 6-h intervals and at a small region scale. Throughout this study, we have only dealt with (SMC-issued) warning episodes in order to analyse deterministic (MM5 and COSMO-I7) and probabilistic (SMC) rainfall forecasts; therefore we have not taken into account those episodes that might (or might not) have been missed by the official SMC warnings. Therefore, whenever we talk about "misses", it is always in relation to the deterministic LAMs' QPFs.