Modelling Housing Prices using a Present Value State Space Model

This paper introduces a State Space approach to explain the dynamics of rent growth, expected returns and Price-Rent ratio in housing markets. According to the present value model, movements in price to rent ratio should be matched by movements in expected returns and expected rent growth. The state space framework assume that both variables follow an autoregression process of order one. The model is applied to the US and UK housing market, which yields series of the latent variables given the behaviour of the Price-Rent ratio. Resampling techniques and bootstrapped likelihood ratios show that expected returns tend to be highly persistent compared to rent growth. The filtered expected returns is considered in a simple predictability of excess returns model with high statistical predictability evidence for the UK. Overall, it is found that the present value model tends to have strong statistical predictability in the UK housing markets.

Prognostication after cardiac arrest and hypothermia: a prospective study.

Current American Academy of Neurology (AAN) guidelines for outcome prediction in comatose survivors of cardiac arrest (CA) have been validated before the therapeutic hypothermia era (TH). We undertook this study to verify the prognostic value of clinical and electrophysiological variables in the TH setting. A total of 111 consecutive comatose survivors of CA treated with TH were prospectively studied over a 3-year period. Neurological examination, electroencephalography (EEG), and somatosensory evoked potentials (SSEP) were performed immediately after TH, at normothermia and off sedation. Neurological recovery was assessed at 3 to 6 months, using Cerebral Performance Categories (CPC). Three clinical variables, assessed within 72 hours after CA, showed higher false-positive mortality predictions as compared with the AAN guidelines: incomplete brainstem reflexes recovery (4% vs 0%), myoclonus (7% vs 0%), and absent motor response to pain (24% vs 0%). Furthermore, unreactive EEG background was incompatible with good long-term neurological recovery (CPC 1-2) and strongly associated with in-hospital mortality (adjusted odds ratio for death, 15.4; 95% confidence interval, 3.3-71.9). The presence of at least 2 independent predictors out of 4 (incomplete brainstem reflexes, myoclonus, unreactive EEG, and absent cortical SSEP) accurately predicted poor long-term neurological recovery (positive predictive value = 1.00); EEG reactivity significantly improved the prognostication. Our data show that TH may modify outcome prediction after CA, implying that some clinical features should be interpreted with more caution in this setting as compared with the AAN guidelines. EEG background reactivity is useful in determining the prognosis after CA treated with TH.

Meta-analysis identifies 13 new loci associated with waist-hip ratio and reveals sexual dimorphism in the genetic basis of fat distribution.

Waist-hip ratio (WHR) is a measure of body fat distribution and a predictor of metabolic consequences independent of overall adiposity. WHR is heritable, but few genetic variants influencing this trait have been identified. We conducted a meta-analysis of 32 genome-wide association studies for WHR adjusted for body mass index (comprising up to 77,167 participants), following up 16 loci in an additional 29 studies (comprising up to 113,636 subjects). We identified 13 new loci in or near RSPO3, VEGFA, TBX15-WARS2, NFE2L3, GRB14, DNM3-PIGC, ITPR2-SSPN, LY86, HOXC13, ADAMTS9, ZNRF3-KREMEN1, NISCH-STAB1 and CPEB4 (P = 1.9 × 10⁻⁹ to P = 1.8 × 10⁻⁴⁰) and the known signal at LYPLAL1. Seven of these loci exhibited marked sexual dimorphism, all with a stronger effect on WHR in women than men (P for sex difference = 1.9 × 10⁻³ to P = 1.2 × 10⁻&supl;³). These findings provide evidence for multiple loci that modulate body fat distribution independent of overall adiposity and reveal strong gene-by-sex interactions.

Impact of the C2/C6 ratio of high-molecular-weight hydroxyethyl starch on pharmacokinetics and blood coagulation in pigs

Rapport de synthèse : Contexte: l'hydroxyéthylamidon (HEA) est largement utilisé comme expanseur volémique en anesthésiologie et réanimation. Cependant, cette classe de produits perturbe le system de la coagulation. Des améliorations restent possibles dans le choix de la combinaison optimale de poids moléculaire, de degré de substitution en radicaux éthyle et de localisation de ces radicaux sur le squelette glucidique des polymères, afin d'optimiser leur efficacité et leur tolérance. L'HEA de poids moléculaire élevé et faiblement substitué n'affecte pas plus la coagulation sanguine que de l'HEA de bas poids moléculaire faiblement substitué. Nous examinons in vivo l'effet d'un abaissement du rapport C2/C6 sur les caractéristiques pharmacocinétiques et l'impact sur la coagulation sanguine d'un HEA de haut poids moléculaire faiblement substitué. Matériels et méthode: nous comparons dans une étude prospective, randomisée et parallèle l'HEA 650/0.42/2.8 avec l'HEA 650/0.42/5.6 auprès de 30 cochons. Avant, pendant et jusqu'à 630 minutes après une perfusion de 30 ml/kg d'HEA, des échantillons sanguins ont été collectés pour mesurer les concentrations d'HEA, les tests de coagulation plasmatique classiques et la coagulation sanguine par thrombélastographie (TEG®, Haemoscope Corporation, Niles, II, U.S.). Les paramètres pharmacocinétiques ont été estimés en adaptant un modèle à deux compartiments. Résultats: la constante d'élimination est de 0.009 ± 0.001 (min-1) pour l'HEA 650/0.42/2.8 et 0.007 ± 0.001 (min-1) pour l'HEA 650/0.42/5.6 (p<0.001); la surface sous la courbe de concentration est de 1374 ± 340 min*g/L pour l'HEA 650/0.42/2.8 et 1697 ± 411 min*g/L pour l'HEA 650/0.42/5.6 (p=0.026). Les concentrations mesurées d'HEA ne montrent pas de différence entre l'HEA 650/0.42/2.8 et l'HEA 650/0.42/5.6. Les deux solutions d'HEA affectent de façon identique la coagulation sanguine: l'index de coagulation thrombélastographique diminue pareillement à ta fin de la perfusion d'HEA 650/0.42/2.8 et d'HEA 650/0.42/5.6 (p=0.29). De même, le temps de thromboplastine partielle activée et le temps de prothrombine augmentent de manière similaire pour l'HEA 650/0.42/2.8 et l'HEA 650/0.42/5.6 (p=0.83). Conclusion: la réduction du rapport C2/C6 de l'HEA de poids moléculaire élevé et faiblement substitué aboutit à une élimination légèrement accélérée d'HEA. Cependant, elle ne modifie pas l'effet perturbateur sur la coagulation.

Sex-dependent selection on an autosomal melanic female ornament promotes the evolution of sex ratio bias.

Sex-dependent selection often leads to spectacularly different phenotypes in males and females. In species in which sexual dimorphism is not complete, it is unclear which benefits females and males derive from displaying a trait that is typical of the other sex. In barn owls (Tyto alba), females exhibit on average larger black eumelanic spots than males but members of the two sexes display this trait in the same range of possible values. In a 12-year study, we show that selection exerted on spot size directly or on genetically correlated traits strongly favoured females with large spots and weakly favoured males with small spots. Intense directional selection on females caused an increase in spot diameter in the population over the study period. This increase is due to a change in the autosomal genes underlying the expression of eumelanic spots but not of sex-linked genes. Female-like males produced more daughters than sons, while male-like females produced more sons than daughters when mated to a small-spotted male. These sex ratio biases appear adaptive because sons of male-like females and daughters of female-like males had above-average survival. This demonstrates that selection exerted against individuals displaying a trait that is typical of the other sex promoted the evolution of specific life history strategies that enhance their fitness. This may explain why in many organisms sexual dimorphism is often not complete.

Comparative cost-effectiveness analyses of cardiovascular magnetic resonance and coronary angiography combined with fractional flow reserve for the diagnosis of coronary artery disease.

BACKGROUND: According to recent guidelines, patients with coronary artery disease (CAD) should undergo revascularization if significant myocardial ischemia is present. Both, cardiovascular magnetic resonance (CMR) and fractional flow reserve (FFR) allow for a reliable ischemia assessment and in combination with anatomical information provided by invasive coronary angiography (CXA), such a work-up sets the basis for a decision to revascularize or not. The cost-effectiveness ratio of these two strategies is compared. METHODS: Strategy 1) CMR to assess ischemia followed by CXA in ischemia-positive patients (CMR + CXA), Strategy 2) CXA followed by FFR in angiographically positive stenoses (CXA + FFR). The costs, evaluated from the third party payer perspective in Switzerland, Germany, the United Kingdom (UK), and the United States (US), included public prices of the different outpatient procedures and costs induced by procedural complications and by diagnostic errors. The effectiveness criterion was the correct identification of hemodynamically significant coronary lesion(s) (= significant CAD) complemented by full anatomical information. Test performances were derived from the published literature. Cost-effectiveness ratios for both strategies were compared for hypothetical cohorts with different pretest likelihood of significant CAD. RESULTS: CMR + CXA and CXA + FFR were equally cost-effective at a pretest likelihood of CAD of 62% in Switzerland, 65% in Germany, 83% in the UK, and 82% in the US with costs of CHF 5'794, euro 1'517, £ 2'680, and $ 2'179 per patient correctly diagnosed. Below these thresholds, CMR + CXA showed lower costs per patient correctly diagnosed than CXA + FFR. CONCLUSIONS: The CMR + CXA strategy is more cost-effective than CXA + FFR below a CAD prevalence of 62%, 65%, 83%, and 82% for the Swiss, the German, the UK, and the US health care systems, respectively. These findings may help to optimize resource utilization in the diagnosis of CAD.

Sudden cardiac arrest associated with early repolarization.

BACKGROUND: Early repolarization is a common electrocardiographic finding that is generally considered to be benign. Its potential to cause cardiac arrhythmias has been hypothesized from experimental studies, but it is not known whether there is a clinical association with sudden cardiac arrest. METHODS: We reviewed data from 206 case subjects at 22 centers who were resuscitated after cardiac arrest due to idiopathic ventricular fibrillation and assessed the prevalence of electrocardiographic early repolarization. The latter was defined as an elevation of the QRS-ST junction of at least 0.1 mV from baseline in the inferior or lateral lead, manifested as QRS slurring or notching. The control group comprised 412 subjects without heart disease who were matched for age, sex, race, and level of physical activity. Follow-up data that included the results of monitoring with an implantable defibrillator were obtained for all case subjects. RESULTS: Early repolarization was more frequent in case subjects with idiopathic ventricular fibrillation than in control subjects (31% vs. 5%, P<0.001). Among case subjects, those with early repolarization were more likely to be male and to have a history of syncope or sudden cardiac arrest during sleep than those without early repolarization. In eight subjects, the origin of ectopy that initiated ventricular arrhythmias was mapped to sites concordant with the localization of repolarization abnormalities. During a mean (+/-SD) follow-up of 61+/-50 months, defibrillator monitoring showed a higher incidence of recurrent ventricular fibrillation in case subjects with a repolarization abnormality than in those without such an abnormality (hazard ratio, 2.1; 95% confidence interval, 1.2 to 3.5; P=0.008). CONCLUSIONS: Among patients with a history of idiopathic ventricular fibrillation, there is an increased prevalence of early repolarization.

Inter-informant agreement and prevalence estimates for substance use disorders: direct interview versus family history method.

OBJECTIVES: Family studies typically use multiple sources of information on each individual including direct interviews and family history information. The aims of the present study were to: (1) assess agreement for diagnoses of specific substance use disorders between direct interviews and the family history method; (2) compare prevalence estimates according to the two methods; (3) test strategies to approximate prevalence estimates according to family history reports to those based on direct interviews; (4) determine covariates of inter-informant agreement; and (5) identify covariates that affect the likelihood of reporting disorders by informants. METHODS: Analyses were based on family study data which included 1621 distinct informant (first-degree relatives and spouses) - index subject pairs. RESULTS: Our main findings were: (1) inter-informant agreement was fair to good for all substance disorders, except for alcohol abuse; (2) the family history method underestimated the prevalence of drug but not alcohol use disorders; (3) lowering diagnostic thresholds for drug disorders and combining multiple family histories increased the accuracy of prevalence estimates for these disorders according to the family history method; (4) female sex of index subjects was associated with higher agreement for nearly all disorders; and (5) informants who themselves had a history of the same substance use disorder were more likely to report this disorder in their relatives, which entails the risk of overestimation of the size of familial aggregation. CONCLUSION: Our findings have important implications for the best-estimate procedure applied in family studies.

Prediction of the economic cost of individual long-term care in the Spanish population

Pensions together with savings and investments during active life are key elements of retirement planning. Motivation for personal choices about the standard of living, bequest and the replacement ratio of pension with respect to last salary income must be considered. This research contributes to the financial planning by helping to quantify long-term care economic needs. We estimate life expectancy from retirement age onwards. The economic cost of care per unit of service is linked to the expected time of needed care and the intensity of required services. The expected individual cost of long-term care from an onset of dependence is estimated separately for men and women. Assumptions on the mortality of the dependent people compared to the general population are introduced. Parameters defining eligibility for various forms of coverage by the universal public social care of the welfare system are addressed. The impact of the intensity of social services on individual predictions is assessed, and a partial coverage by standard private insurance products is also explored. Data were collected by the Spanish Institute of Statistics in two surveys conducted on the general Spanish population in 1999 and in 2008. Official mortality records and life table trends were used to create realistic scenarios for longevity. We find empirical evidence that the public long-term care system in Spain effectively mitigates the risk of incurring huge lifetime costs. We also find that the most vulnerable categories are citizens with moderate disabilities that do not qualify to obtain public social care support. In the Spanish case, the trends between 1999 and 2008 need to be further explored.

The use of classification and regression trees to predict the likelihood of seasonal influenza.

Background Individual signs and symptoms are of limited value for the diagnosis of influenza. Objective To develop a decision tree for the diagnosis of influenza based on a classification and regression tree (CART) analysis. Methods Data from two previous similar cohort studies were assembled into a single dataset. The data were randomly divided into a development set (70%) and a validation set (30%). We used CART analysis to develop three models that maximize the number of patients who do not require diagnostic testing prior to treatment decisions. The validation set was used to evaluate overfitting of the model to the training set. Results Model 1 has seven terminal nodes based on temperature, the onset of symptoms and the presence of chills, cough and myalgia. Model 2 was a simpler tree with only two splits based on temperature and the presence of chills. Model 3 was developed with temperature as a dichotomous variable (≥38°C) and had only two splits based on the presence of fever and myalgia. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUROCC) for the development and validation sets, respectively, were 0.82 and 0.80 for Model 1, 0.75 and 0.76 for Model 2 and 0.76 and 0.77 for Model 3. Model 2 classified 67% of patients in the validation group into a high- or low-risk group compared with only 38% for Model 1 and 54% for Model 3. Conclusions A simple decision tree (Model 2) classified two-thirds of patients as low or high risk and had an AUROCC of 0.76. After further validation in an independent population, this CART model could support clinical decision making regarding influenza, with low-risk patients requiring no further evaluation for influenza and high-risk patients being candidates for empiric symptomatic or drug therapy.

Evaluation of oral versus intravenous dose of vinorelbine to achieve equivalent blood exposures in patients with solid tumours.

Patient's preference is for oral chemotherapy when both oral and i.v. are available, provided that efficacy is equivalent. Reliable switch from oral to i.v. is possible if correspondence between respective doses has been established. Vinorelbine oral was developed as a line extension of VRL i.v. on the basis that similar AUCs result in similar activities. From a first crossover study on 24 patients receiving VRL 25 mg/m2 i.v. and 80 mg/m2 oral data extrapolation concluded on AUCs bioequivalence between Vinorelbine 30 mg/m2 i.v. and 80 mg/m2 oral. A new trial was performed to support this calculation. In a crossover design study on patients (PS 0-1) with advanced solid tumours (44% breast carcinoma), VRL was administered (30 mg/m2 i.v., 80 mg/m2 oral) with a standard meal and 5-HT3 antagonists, at 2 weeks interval. Pharmacokinetics was performed over 168 h and VRL was measured by LC-MS/MS. Statistics included bioequivalence tests. Forty-eight patients were evaluable for PK: median age 58 years (25-71), PS0/PS1: 20/28, M/F: 11/37. Mean AUCs were 1,230 +/- 290 and 1,216 +/- 521 ng/ml for i.v. and oral, respectively. The confidence interval of the AUC ratio (0.83-1.03) was within the required regulatory range (0.8-1.25) and proved the bioequivalence between the two doses. The absolute bioavailability was 37.8 +/- 16.0%, and close to the value from the first study (40%). Patient tolerability was globally comparable between both forms with no significant difference on either haematological or non-haematological toxicities (grade 3-4). This new study, conducted on a larger population, confirmed the reliable dose correspondence previously established between vinorelbine 80 mg/m2 oral and 30 mg/m2 i.v.

Infections and functional impairment in nursing home residents: a reciprocal relationship.

OBJECTIVES: To determine the relationship between infections and functional impairment in nursing home residents. DESIGN: Prospective cohort study (follow-up period, 6 months). SETTING: Thirty-nine nursing homes in western Switzerland. PARTICIPANTS: A total of 1,324 residents aged 65 and older (mean age 85.7; 76.6% female) who agreed to participate, or their proxies, by oral informed consent. MEASUREMENTS: Functional status measured every 3 months. Two different outcomes were used: (a) functional decline defined as death or decreased function at follow-up and (b) functional status score using a standardized measure. RESULTS: At the end of follow-up, mortality was 14.6%, not different for those with and without infection (16.2% vs 13.1%, P=.11). During both 3-month periods, subjects with infection had higher odds of functional decline, even after adjustment for baseline characteristics and occurrence of a new illness (adjusted odds ratio (AOR)=1.6, 95% confidence interval (CI)=1.2-2.2, P=.002, and AOR=1.5, 95% CI=1.1-2.0, P=.008, respectively). The odds of decline increased in a stepwise fashion in patients with zero, one, and two or more infections. The analyses predicting functional status score (restricted to subjects who survived) gave similar results. A survival analysis predicting time to first infection confirmed a stepwise greater likelihood of infection in subjects with moderate and severe impairment at baseline than in subjects with no or mild functional impairment at baseline. CONCLUSION: Infections appear to be both a cause and a consequence of functional impairment in nursing home residents. Further studies should be undertaken to investigate whether effective infection control programs can also contribute to preventing functional decline, an important component of these residents' quality of life.

The size of the underground economy in Germany: A correction of the record and new evidence from the Modified-Cash-deposit-Ratio approach

Based on the Ahumada et al. (2007, Review of Income and Wealth) critique we revise existing estimates of the size of the German underground economy. Among other things, it turns out that most of these estimates are untenable and that the tax pressure induced size of the German underground economy may be much lower than previously thought. To this extent, German policy and law makers have been misguided during the last three decades. Therefore, we introduce the Modified-Cash-Deposit-Ratio (MCDR) approach, which is not subject to the recent critique and apply it to Germany for the period 1960 to 2008. JEL: O17, Q41, C22, Keywords: underground economy, shadow economy, cash-depositratio, currency demand approach, MIMIC approach