Averting risk in the face of large losses: Bernoulli vs. Tversky and Kahneman

We experimentally question the assertion of Prospect Theory that people display risk attraction in choices involving high-probability losses. Indeed, our experimental participants tend to avoid fair risks for large (up to ? 90), high-probability (80%) losses. Our research hinges on a novel experimental method designed to alleviate the house-money bias that pervades experiments with real (not hypothetical) loses.Our results vindicate Daniel Bernoulli?s view that risk aversion is the dominant attitude,But, contrary to the Bernoulli-inspired canonical expected utility theory, we do find frequent risk attraction for small amounts of money at stake.In any event, we attempt neither to test expected utility versus nonexpected utility theories, nor to contribute to the important literature that estimates value and weighting functions. The question that we ask is more basic, namely: do people display risk aversion when facing large losses, or large gains? And, at the risk of oversimplifying, our answer is yes.

High Priority Corridors for Access Management Near Large Urban Areas in Iowa, 2002

This research project was intended to produce a strategy for addressing current and future access management problems on state highway routes located just outside urban areas that serve as major routes for commuting into and out of major employment centers in Iowa. There were two basic goals: (1) to develop a ranking system for identifying high-priority segments for access management treatments on primary highways outside metro and urban areas and (2) to focus efforts on routes that are major commuting routes at present and in the future. The project focused on four-lane expressways and two-lane arterials most likely to serve extensive commuter traffic. Available spatial and statistical data were used to identify existing and possible future problem corridors with respect to access management. The research team developed a scheme for ranking commuter routes based on their need for attention to access management. This project was able to produce rankings for corridors based on a variety of factors, including proportion of crashes that appear to be access-related, severity of those crashes, and potential for improvement along corridors. Frequency and loss were found to be highly rank correlated; because of this, these indicators were not used together in developing final priority rankings. Most of the highest ranked routes are on two-lane rural cross sections, but a few are four-lane expressways with at-grade private driveways and public road intersections. The most important conclusion of the ranking system is that many of the poor-performing corridors are located in a single Iowa Department of Transportation district near two urban areas--Des Moines and Ames. A comprehensive approach to managing access along commuting corridors should be developed first in this district since the potential benefits would be highest in that region.

Combined approaches in large vestibular schwannomas: surgical and radiosurgical perspective

Purpose: The management of vestibular schwanommas (VS) is challenging, with microsurgery remaining the main treatment option. Planned subtotal resection is now being increasingly considered to reduce the risk of neurological deficits following complete resection. The residual part of the tumor can then be treated with Gamma Knife surgery (GKS) to achieve long-term growth control. Methods: This case series of 11 patients documents early results with planned subtotal resection followed by GKS in Lausanne University Hospital, between July 2010 and March 2012. We analyzed clinical symptoms and signs for all cases, as well as MRI and audiograms. Results: Mean age in this series was 50.3 years (range 24.1-73.4). Two patients (18.2%) had a stereotactic fractionated radiotherapy, which had failed to ensure tumor control, before the microsurgical intervention. The lesions were solid in 9 cases (81.8%), and mixed (solid and cystic) in 2 patients (18.2%). Presurgical tumor volume was of a mean of 18.5 cm3 (range 9.7-34.9 cm3). The mean duration between microsurgery and GKS was 10.5 months (range 4-22.8). The mean tumor volume at the time of GKS treatment was 4.9 cm3 (range 0.5- 12.8). A mean number of 20.7 isocenters was used (range 8-31). Nine patients received 12 Gy and 2 patients with 11 Gy at the periphery (at the 50% prescription isodose). We did not have any major complications in our series. Postoperative status showed no facial nerve deficits. Four patients with useful pre-operative hearing underwent surgery aiming to preserve the cochlear nerve function. Of these patients, the patient who had Gardner-Robertson (GR) class 1 before surgery, remained in GR class 1. Two patients improved after surgery, one changing from GR 5 to GR 3 and the other with slight improvement, remaining in the same GR 3 class. Mean follow-up after surgery was 15.4 months (range 4-31.2). One patient, who presented with secondary trigeminal neuralgia before surgery, had transitory facial hypoesthesia following surgery. No other neurological deficits were encountered. Following GKS, the patients had a mean follow-up of 5.33 months (range 1-13). No new neurological deficits were encountered. Conclusions: Our data suggest that planned subtotal resection followed by GKS has an excellent clinical outcome with respect to preservation of cranial nerves, and other neurological functions, and a good possibility of recovery of many of the pre-operative cranial nerve dysfunctions

Asymmetric stochastic switching driven by intrinsic molecular noise

Low-copy-number molecules are involved in many functions in cells. The intrinsic fluctuations of these numbers can enable stochastic switching between multiple steady states, inducing phenotypic variability. Herein we present a theoretical and computational study based on Master Equations and Fokker-Planck and Langevin descriptions of stochastic switching for a genetic circuit of autoactivation. We show that in this circuit the intrinsic fluctuations arising from low-copy numbers, which are inherently state-dependent, drive asymmetric switching. These theoretical results are consistent with experimental data that have been reported for the bistable system of the gallactose signaling network in yeast. Our study unravels that intrinsic fluctuations, while not required to describe bistability, are fundamental to understand stochastic switching and the dynamical relative stability of multiple states.

Large differences in the prevalence of normal weight obesity using various cut-offs for excess body fat

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Normal weight obesity (NWO) has been defined as an excessive body fat (BF) associated with a normal body mass index (BMI). Still, little is known regarding the effect of differing cut-offs for %BF on the prevalence of NWO. We thus conducted a study to assess the effect of modifying the cut-offs for excessive %BF on the prevalence of NWO. METHODS: We examined a convenience sample of 1523 Portuguese adults. BF was measured by validated hand-held bioimpedance. NWO was defined as a BMI < 25 kg/m2 and a %BF >30% or according to sex- and age-specific %BF cut-offs. RESULTS: Prevalence of NWO was 10.1% in women and 3.2% in men. In women, prevalence of NWO increased considerably with age, and virtually all women aged over 55 with a BMI < 25 kg/m2 were actually considered as NWO. Using sex-specific cut-offs for BF (men: 29.1%; women: 37.2%) led to moderately lower prevalence of NWO in women. Using sex and age-specific cut-offs for %BF considerably decreased the prevalence of NWO in women, i.e. 0.5e2.5% (depending on the criterion) but not in men, i.e. 1.9e3.4%. CONCLUSIONS: In women, the prevalence of NWO varies considerably according to the cut-off used to define excess BF, whereas a much smaller variation is found in men. While further studies are needed to describe the risk associated with NWO using various %BF cut-offs, this study suggests that sex- and age-specific cut-offs may be preferred.

Results and harmonization guidelines from two large-scale international Elispot proficiency panels conducted by the Cancer Vaccine Consortium (CVC/SVI).

The Cancer Vaccine Consortium of the Sabin Vaccine Institute (CVC/SVI) is conducting an ongoing large-scale immune monitoring harmonization program through its members and affiliated associations. This effort was brought to life as an external validation program by conducting an international Elispot proficiency panel with 36 laboratories in 2005, and was followed by a second panel with 29 participating laboratories in 2006 allowing for application of learnings from the first panel. Critical protocol choices, as well as standardization and validation practices among laboratories were assessed through detailed surveys. Although panel participants had to follow general guidelines in order to allow comparison of results, each laboratory was able to use its own protocols, materials and reagents. The second panel recorded an overall significantly improved performance, as measured by the ability to detect all predefined responses correctly. Protocol choices and laboratory practices, which can have a dramatic effect on the overall assay outcome, were identified and lead to the following recommendations: (A) Establish a laboratory SOP for Elispot testing procedures including (A1) a counting method for apoptotic cells for determining adequate cell dilution for plating, and (A2) overnight rest of cells prior to plating and incubation, (B) Use only pre-tested serum optimized for low background: high signal ratio, (C) Establish a laboratory SOP for plate reading including (C1) human auditing during the reading process and (C2) adequate adjustments for technical artifacts, and (D) Only allow trained personnel, which is certified per laboratory SOPs to conduct assays. Recommendations described under (A) were found to make a statistically significant difference in assay performance, while the remaining recommendations are based on practical experiences confirmed by the panel results, which could not be statistically tested. These results provide initial harmonization guidelines to optimize Elispot assay performance to the immunotherapy community. Further optimization is in process with ongoing panels.

Large gypsum nodules in the Paleogene and Neogene evaporites of Spain: distribution and palaeogeographic significance

Sabkha and deep burial set tings are the most com mon sites where diagenetic anhydrite forms. In a sabkha setting, displacive facies (iso lated nodules, bed ded nodules, enterolithic levels) of early diagenetic or primary anhydrite are generated (Shearman, 1966; Hardie, 1967). These anhydrite facies are commonly foundat the top of shoal ing cycles representing the evolution from subaqueous depositional conditions at the base (carbonates, lutites) to exposure conditions at the top where in ter stitially-grown gypsum/anhydrite de velops ( sabkha cy cles). In a deep burial setting, gypsum transforms to tally to anhydrite with in creas ing temperature and lithostatic pressure (Murray, 1964). Al though this mineral transformation usually preserves the depositional gypsum facies, a significant textural change is in volved in other cases, resulting in replacive anhydrite with a nodular-mosaic or"chicken-wire" fabric (Warren, 2006). In the two settings, how ever, the size of the individual anhydrite nodules is relatively small, rarely reaching some tens of centimetres across. More over, bedding is preserved or little disturbed, al though minor de formation is caused by the displacive sabkha nodules.

Lattices for 3-Dimensional Fuzzy Data generated by Fuzzy Galois Connections

Vagueness and high dimensional space data are usual features of current data. The paper is an approach to identify conceptual structures among fuzzy three dimensional data sets in order to get conceptual hierarchy. We propose a fuzzy extension of the Galois connections that allows to demonstrate an isomorphism theorem between fuzzy sets closures which is the basis for generating lattices ordered-sets

Comparative phylogeography in a specific and obligate pollination antagonism.

In specific and obligate interactions the nature and abundance of a given species can have important effects on the survival and population dynamics of associated organisms. In a phylogeographic framework, we therefore expect that the fates of organisms interacting specifically are also tightly interrelated. Here we investigate such a scenario by analyzing the genetic structures of species interacting in an obligate plant-insect pollination lure-and-trap antagonism, involving Arum maculatum (Araceae) and its specific psychodid (Diptera) visitors Psychoda phalaenoides and Psycha grisescens. Because the interaction is asymmetric (i.e., only the plant depends on the insect), we expect the genetic structure of the plant to be related with the historical pollinator availability, yielding incongruent phylogeographic patterns between the interacting organisms.Using insect mtDNA sequences and plant AFLP genome fingerprinting, we inferred the large-scale phylogeographies of each species and the distribution of genetic diversities throughout the sampled range, and evaluated the congruence in their respective genetic structures using hierarchical analyses of molecular variances (AMOVA). Because the composition of pollinator species varies in Europe, we also examined its association with the spatial genetic structure of the plant.Our findings indicate that while the plant presents a spatially well-defined genetic structure, this is not the case in the insects. Patterns of genetic diversities also show dissimilar distributions among the three interacting species. Phylogeographic histories of the plant and its pollinating insects are thus not congruent, a result that would indicate that plant and insect lineages do not share the same glacial and postglacial histories. However, the genetic structure of the plant can, at least partially, be explained by the type of pollinators available at a regional scale. Differences in life-history traits of available pollinators might therefore have influenced the genetic structure of the plant, the dependent organism, in this antagonistic interaction.

Polyunsaturated aldehydes from large phytoplankton of the Atlantic Ocean Surface (42ºN to 33ºS)

Polyunsaturated aldehydes (PUAs) are organic compounds mainly produced by diatoms, after cell wounding. These compounds are increasingly reported as teratogenic for species of grazers and deleterious for phytoplanktonic species, but there is still scarce information regarding concentration ranges and the composition of PUAs in the open ocean. In this study, we analyzed the spatial distribution and the type of aldehydes produced by the large-sized (>10 μm) phytoplankton in the Atlantic Ocean surface. Analyses were conducted on PUAs released after mechanical disruption of the phytoplankton cells, referred to here as potential PUAs (pPUAs). Results show the ubiquitous presence of pPUA in the open ocean, including upwelling areas, as well as oligotrophic gyres. Total pPUA concentrations ranged from zero to 4.18 pmol from cells in 1 L. Identified PUAs were heptadienal, octadienal and decadienal, with heptadienal being the most common (79% of total stations). PUA amount and composition across the Atlantic Ocean was mainly related to the nitrogen:phosphorus ratio, suggesting nutrient-driven mechanisms of PUA production. Extending the range of trophic conditions considered by adding data reported for productive coastal waters, we found a pattern of PUA variation in relation to trophic status.

Large D gravity and low D strings

We show that in the limit of a large number of dimensions a wide class of nonextremal neutral black holes has a universal near-horizon limit. The limiting geometry is the two-dimensional black hole of string theory with a two-dimensional target space. Its conformal symmetry explains the properties of massless scalars found recently in the large-D limit. For black branes with string charges, the near-horizon geometry is that of the three-dimensional black strings of Horne and Horowitz. The analogies between the α′ expansion in string theory and the large-D expansion in gravity suggest a possible effective string description of the large-D limit of black holes. We comment on applications to several subjects, in particular to the problem of critical collapse.

Novel method to estimate the phenotypic variation explained by genome-wide association studies reveals large fraction of the missing heritability.

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) are conducted with the promise to discover novel genetic variants associated with diverse traits. For most traits, associated markers individually explain just a modest fraction of the phenotypic variation, but their number can well be in the hundreds. We developed a maximum likelihood method that allows us to infer the distribution of associated variants even when many of them were missed by chance. Compared to previous approaches, the novelty of our method is that it (a) does not require having an independent (unbiased) estimate of the effect sizes; (b) makes use of the complete distribution of P-values while allowing for the false discovery rate; (c) takes into account allelic heterogeneity and the SNP pruning strategy. We applied our method to the latest GWAS meta-analysis results of the GIANT consortium. It revealed that while the explained variance of genome-wide (GW) significant SNPs is around 1% for waist-hip ratio (WHR), the observed P-values provide evidence for the existence of variants explaining 10% (CI=[8.5-11.5%]) of the phenotypic variance in total. Similarly, the total explained variance likely to exist for height is estimated to be 29% (CI=[28-30%]), three times higher than what the observed GW significant SNPs give rise to. This methodology also enables us to predict the benefit of future GWA studies that aim to reveal more associated genetic markers via increased sample size.

Intensified chemotherapy with ACVBP plus rituximab versus standard CHOP plus rituximab for the treatment of diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (LNH03-2B): an open-label randomised phase 3 trial.

BACKGROUND: The outcome of diffuse large B-cell lymphoma has been substantially improved by the addition of the anti-CD20 monoclonal antibody rituximab to chemotherapy regimens. We aimed to assess, in patients aged 18-59 years, the potential survival benefit provided by a dose-intensive immunochemotherapy regimen plus rituximab compared with standard treatment plus rituximab. METHODS: We did an open-label randomised trial comparing dose-intensive rituximab, doxorubicin, cyclophosphamide, vindesine, bleomycin, and prednisone (R-ACVBP) with subsequent consolidation versus standard rituximab, doxorubicin, cyclophosphamide, vincristine, and prednisone (R-CHOP). Random assignment was done with a computer-assisted randomisation-allocation sequence with a block size of four. Patients were aged 18-59 years with untreated diffuse large B-cell lymphoma and an age-adjusted international prognostic index equal to 1. Our primary endpoint was event-free survival. Our analyses of efficacy and safety were of the intention-to-treat population. This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT00140595. FINDINGS: One patient withdrew consent before treatment and 54 did not complete treatment. After a median follow-up of 44 months, our 3-year estimate of event-free survival was 81% (95% CI 75-86) in the R-ACVBP group and 67% (59-73) in the R-CHOP group (hazard ratio [HR] 0·56, 95% CI 0·38-0·83; p=0·0035). 3-year estimates of progression-free survival (87% [95% CI, 81-91] vs 73% [66-79]; HR 0·48 [0·30-0·76]; p=0·0015) and overall survival (92% [87-95] vs 84% [77-89]; HR 0·44 [0·28-0·81]; p=0·0071) were also increased in the R-ACVBP group. 82 (42%) of 196 patients in the R-ACVBP group experienced a serious adverse event compared with 28 (15%) of 183 in the R-CHOP group. Grade 3-4 haematological toxic effects were more common in the R-ACVBP group, with a higher proportion of patients experiencing a febrile neutropenic episode (38% [75 of 196] vs 9% [16 of 183]). INTERPRETATION: Compared with standard R-CHOP, intensified immunochemotherapy with R-ACVBP significantly improves survival of patients aged 18-59 years with diffuse large B-cell lymphoma with low-intermediate risk according to the International Prognostic Index. Haematological toxic effects of the intensive regimen were raised but manageable. FUNDING: Groupe d'Etudes des Lymphomes de l'Adulte and Amgen.

Short-term storage in vitro and large-scale propagation of grapevine genotypes

The objective of this work was to evaluate the large-scale propagation of grapevine genotypes after short-term storage in vitro. Microshoots from ten grapevine genotypes were used. The following storage temperatures were evaluated: 10, 20, and 25°C. After short-term storage, the shoots were propagated in up to five successive subcultures, to assess the large-scale propagation of the germplasm maintained under conditions of minimal growth. The propagated shoots were rooted in different concentrations of indolbutiric acid (IBA) and acclimatized in greenhouse. The best temperature for short-term storage in vitro and survival of the genotypes was 20°C. In the propagation phase, the highest number of shoots per explant was found in the subcultures 4 and 5, with averages of 4.9 and 4.8 shoots per explant, respectively. In the rooting phase, the best results for number of roots were obtained using a culture medium supplemented with 0.4 µmol L-1 of IBA, with an average of three roots per shoot. During the acclimation phase, a survival rate higher than 95% was achieved after 30 days in the greenhouse. Grapevine genotypes maintained for six months in vitro, at 20ºC, can be micropropagated in large scale.

Importance of abiotic stress as a range-limit determinant for European plants: insights from species' responses to climatic gradients

Aim We examined whether species occurrences are primarily limited by physiological tolerance in the abiotically more stressful end of climatic gradients (the asymmetric abiotic stress limitation (AASL) hypothesis) and the geographical predictions of this hypothesis: abiotic stress mainly determines upper-latitudinal and upper-altitudinal species range limits, and the importance of abiotic stress for these range limits increases the further northwards and upwards a species occurs. Location Europe and the Swiss Alps. Methods The AASL hypothesis predicts that species have skewed responses to climatic gradients, with a steep decline towards the more stressful conditions. Based on presence-absence data we examined the shape of plant species responses (measured as probability of occurrence) along three climatic gradients across latitudes in Europe (1577 species) and altitudes in the Swiss Alps (284 species) using Huisman-Olff-Fresco, generalized linear and generalized additive models. Results We found that almost half of the species from Europe and one-third from the Swiss Alps showed responses consistent with the predictions of the AASL hypothesis. Cold temperatures and a short growing season seemed to determine the upper-latitudinal and upper-altitudinal range limits of up to one-third of the species, while drought provided an important constraint at lower-latitudinal range limits for up to one-fifth of the species. We found a biome-dependent influence of abiotic stress and no clear support for abiotic stress as a stronger upper range-limit determinant for species with higher latitudinal and altitudinal distributions. However, the overall influence of climate as a range-limit determinant increased with latitude. Main conclusions Our results support the AASL hypothesis for almost half of the studied species, and suggest that temperature-related stress controls the upper-latitudinal and upper-altitudinal range limits of a large proportion of these species, while other factors including drought stress may be important at the lower range limits.