Russia and its Near Neighborhood: Competition and Conflict within the EU. Natolin Research Paper 04/May 2011

Russia in 2004 politely rejected the offer to become a participant in the European Neighbourhood Policy, preferring instead to pursue bilateral relations with the EU under the heading of ‘strategic partnership’. Five years later, its officials first reacted with concern to the ENP’s eastern dimension, the Eastern Partnership initiative. Quickly, however, having become convinced that the project would not amount to much, their concern gave way to indifference and derision. Furthermore, Russian representatives have failed to support idealistic or romantic notions of commonality in the area between Russia and the EU, shunned the terminology of ‘common European neighbourhood’ and replaced it in EU-Russian documents with the bland reference to ‘regions adjacent to the EU and Russian borders’. Internally, the term of the ‘near abroad’ was the official designation of the area in the Yeltsin era, and unofficially it is still in use today. As the terminological contortions suggest, Moscow officials consider the EU’s eastern neighbours as part of a Russian sphere of influence and interest. Assurances to the contrary notwithstanding, they look at the EU-Russia relationship as a ‘zero-sum game’ in which the gain of one party is the loss of the other. EU attempts to persuade the Russian power elite to regard cooperation in the common neighbourhood not as a competitive game but providing ‘win-win’ opportunities have been to no avail. In fact, conceptual approaches and practical policies conducted vis-à-vis the three Western CIS countries (Belarus, Ukraine and Moldova) and the southern Caucasus (Georgia, Armenia and Azerbaijan) confirm that, from Moscow’s perspective, processes of democratisation, liberalisation and integration with Western institutions in that region are contrary to Russian interests. In each and every case, therefore, the area’s ‘frozen conflicts’ have not been regarded by the Kremlin as an opportunity to promote stability and prosperity in the countries concerned but as an instrument to prevent European choices in their domestic and foreign policy. The current ‘reset’ in Russia’s relations with the United States and the ‘modernisation partnership’ with the EU have as yet failed to produce an impact on Russia’s policies in ‘its’ neighbourhood. The EU is nevertheless well advised to maintain its course of attempting to engage that country constructively, including in the common neighbourhood. However, its leverage is small. For any reorientation to occur in Moscow towards perceptions and policies of mutual benefit in the region, much would depend on Russia’s internal development.

China's Confidence Issue: Hard or Smart Landing - What Can We Expect? Asia Policy Brief 2015/03, November 2015

A China whose economy is growing at a slower pace is something the world can cope with. But a China with doubts about whether the government can maintain control and implement reform – that would be a serious problem. The signals currently coming from the economic and political spheres are cause for concern. China is in danger of falling into a downward spiral of declining confidence. What are the consequences for Germany?

Brexit: a new beginning for the EU or the beginning of the end? EPC Commentary, 24 June 2016

Despite all the evidence presented by a range of respected figures and institutions, and the paucity of the arguments on the Brexit side, which failed to set out the alternative to EU membership, the emotional appeal for ‘independence’ has won. This is a bad day for Europe. The Bremain campaign has not connected with enough voters, with the perceived need to limit migration, the wish to make decisions independent of the EU and a vote against ‘the establishment’ all seemingly playing a role.

Near Real-Time Detection Of Pipe Bursts in Water Distribution Systems

The research work presented in the thesis describes a new methodology for the automated near real-time detection of pipe bursts in Water Distribution Systems (WDSs). The methodology analyses the pressure/flow data gathered by means of SCADA systems in order to extract useful informations that go beyond the simple and usual monitoring type activities and/or regulatory reporting , enabling the water company to proactively manage the WDSs sections. The work has an interdisciplinary nature covering AI techniques and WDSs management processes such as data collection, manipulation and analysis for event detection. Indeed, the methodology makes use of (i) Artificial Neural Network (ANN) for the short-term forecasting of future pressure/flow signal values and (ii) Rule-based Model for bursts detection at sensor and district level. The results of applying the new methodology to a District Metered Area in Emilia- Romagna’s region, Italy have also been reported in the thesis. The results gathered illustrate how the methodology is capable to detect the aforementioned failure events in fast and reliable manner. The methodology guarantees the water companies to save water, energy, money and therefore enhance them to achieve higher levels of operational efficiency, a compliance with the current regulations and, last but not least, an improvement of customer service.

Geochemistry, isotopic ratios and aldehyde concentrations of frost flowers, snow and ice near Barrow, Alaska

Frost flowers, intricate featherlike crystals that grow on refreezing sea ice leads, have been implicated in lower atmospheric chemical reactions. Few studies have presented chemical composition information for frost flowers over time and many of the chemical species commonly associated with Polar tropospheric reactions have never been reported for frost flowers. We undertook this study on the sea ice north of Barrow, Alaska to quantify the major ion, stable oxygen and hydrogen isotope, alkalinity, light absorbance by soluble species, organochlorine, and aldehyde composition of seawater, brine, and frost flowers. For many of these chemical species we present the first measurements from brine or frost flowers. Results show that major ion and alkalinity concentrations, stable isotope values, and major chromophore (NO3- and H2O2) concentrations are controlled by fractionation from seawater and brine. The presence of these chemical species in present and future sea ice scenarios is somewhat predictable. However, aldehydes, organochlorine compounds, light absorbing species, and mercury (part 2 of this research and Sherman et al. (2012, doi:10.1029/2011JD016186)) are deposited to frost flowers through less predictable processes that probably involve the atmosphere as a source. The present and future concentrations of these constituents in frost flowers may not be easily incorporated into future sea ice or lower atmospheric chemistry scenarios. Thinning of Arctic sea ice will likely present more open sea ice leads where young ice, brine, and frost flowers form. How these changing ice conditions will affect the interactions between ice, brine, frost flowers and the lower atmosphere is unknown.

(Table 1) Grain size results, statistical parameters and magnetic susceptibility values of disturbed sediments from ODP holes 204-1249C and 204-1245B

Soupy and mousse-like fabrics are disturbance sedimentary features that result from the dissociation of gas hydrate, a process that releases water. During the core retrieval process, soupy and mousse-like fabrics are produced in the gas hydrate-bearing sediments due to changes in pressure and temperature conditions. Therefore, the identification of soupy and mousse-like fabrics can be used as a proxy for the presence of gas hydrate in addition to other evidence, such as pore water freshening or anomalously cool temperature. We present here grain-size results, mineralogical composition and magnetic susceptibility data of soupy and mousse-like samples from the southern Hydrate Ridge (Cascadia accretionary complex) acquired during Leg 204 of the Ocean Drilling Program. In order to study the relationship between sedimentary texture and the presence of gas hydrates, we have compared these results with the main textural and compositional data available from the same area. Most of the disturbed analyzed samples from the summit and the western flank of southern Hydrate Ridge show a mean grain size coarser than the average mean grain size of the hemipelagic samples from the same area. The depositional features of the sediments are not recognised due to disturbance. However, their granulometric statistical parameters and distribution curves, and magnetic susceptibility logs indicate that they correspond to a turbidite facies. These results suggest that gas hydrates in the southern Hydrate Ridge could form preferentially in coarser grain-size layers that could act as conduits feeding gas from below the BSR. Two samples from the uppermost metres near the seafloor at the summit of the southern Hydrate Ridge show a finer mean grain-size value than the average of hemipelagic samples. They were located where the highest amount of gas hydrates was detected, suggesting that in this area the availability of methane gas was high enough to generate gas hydrates, even within low-permeability layers. The mineralogical composition of the soupy and mousse-like sediments does not show any specific characteristic with respect to the other samples from the southern Hydrate Ridge.