920 resultados para Kaplan
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BACKGROUND To determine the 5-year outcome after high-dose-rate brachytherapy (HDR-BT) as a monotherapy. METHODS Between 10/2003 and 06/2006, 36 patients with low (28) and intermediate (8) risk prostate cancer were treated by HDR-BT monotherapy. All patients received one implant and 4 fractions of 9.5 Gy within 48 hours for a total prescribed dose (PD) of 38 Gy. Five patients received concomitant androgen deprivation therapy (ADT). Toxicity was scored according to the common terminology criteria for adverse events from the National Cancer Institute (CTCAE) version 3.0. Biochemical recurrence was defined according to the Phoenix criteria and analyzed using the Kaplan Meier method. Predictors for late grade 3 GU toxicity were analyzed using univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses. RESULTS The median follow-up was 6.9 years (range, 1.5-8.0 years). Late grade 2 and 3 genitourinary (GU) toxicity was observed in 10 (28%) and 7 (19%) patients, respectively. The actuarial proportion of patients with late grade 3 GU toxicity at 5 years was 17.7%. Late grade 2 and 3 gastrointestinal (GI) toxicities were not observed. The crude erectile function preservation rate in patients without ADT was 75%. The 5 year biochemical recurrence-free survival (bRFS) rate was 97%. Late grade 3 GU toxicity was associated with the urethral volume (p = 0.001) and the urethral V120 (urethral volume receiving ≥120% of the PD; p = 0.0005) after multivariate Cox regression. CONCLUSIONS After HDR-BT monotherapy late grade 3 GU was observed relatively frequently and was associated with the urethral V120. GI toxicity was negligible, the erectile function preservation rate and the bRFS rate was excellent.
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BACKGROUND The optimal management of high-risk prostate cancer remains uncertain. In this study we assessed the safety and efficacy of a novel multimodal treatment paradigm for high-risk prostate cancer. METHODS This was a prospective phase II trial including 35 patients with newly diagnosed high-risk localized or locally advanced prostate cancer treated with high-dose intensity-modulated radiation therapy preceded or not by radical prostatectomy, concurrent intensified-dose docetaxel-based chemotherapy and long-term androgen deprivation therapy. Primary endpoint was acute and late toxicity evaluated with the Common Terminology Criteria for Adverse Events version 3.0. Secondary endpoint was biochemical and clinical recurrence-free survival explored with the Kaplan-Meier method. RESULTS Acute gastro-intestinal and genito-urinary toxicity was grade 2 in 23% and 20% of patients, and grade 3 in 9% and 3% of patients, respectively. Acute blood/bone marrow toxicity was grade 2 in 20% of patients. No acute grade ≥ 4 toxicity was observed. Late gastro-intestinal and genito-urinary toxicity was grade 2 in 9% of patients each. No late grade ≥ 3 toxicity was observed. Median follow-up was 63 months (interquartile range 31-79). Actuarial 5-year biochemical and clinical recurrence-free survival rate was 55% (95% confidence interval, 35-75%) and 70% (95% confidence interval, 52-88%), respectively. CONCLUSIONS In our phase II trial testing a novel multimodal treatment paradigm for high-risk prostate cancer, toxicity was acceptably low and mid-term oncological outcome was good. This treatment paradigm, thus, may warrant further evaluation in phase III randomized trials.
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BACKGROUND There is great variability for the type of anaesthesia used during TAVI, with no clear consensus coming from comparative studies or guidelines. We sought to detect regional differences in the anaesthetic management of patients undergoing transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI) in Europe and to evaluate the relationship between type of anaesthesia and in-hospital and 1year outcome. METHODS Between January 2011 and May 2012 the Sentinel European TAVI Pilot Registry enrolled 2807 patients treated via a transfemoral approach using either local (LA-group, 1095 patients, 39%) or general anaesthesia (GA-group, 1712 patients, 61%). RESULTS A wide variation in LA use was evident amongst the 10 participating countries. The use of LA has increased over time (from a mean of 37.5% of procedures in the first year, to 57% in last 6months, p<0.01). MI, major stroke as well as in-hospital death rate (7.0% LA vs 5.3% GA, p=0.053) had a similar incidence between groups, confirmed in multivariate regression analysis after adjusting for confounders. Dividing our population in tertiles according to the Log-EuroSCORE we found similar mortality under LA, whilst mortality was higher in the highest risk tertile under GA. Survival at 1year, compared by Kaplan-Meier analysis, was similar between groups (log-rank: p=0.1505). CONCLUSIONS Selection of anaesthesia appears to be more influenced by national practice and operator preference than patient characteristics. In the absence of an observed difference in outcomes for either approach, there is no compelling argument to suggest that operators and centres should change their anaesthetic practice.
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BACKGROUND Lack of evidence-based data causes significant variation among surgeons concerning the depth of wide excision for primary cutaneous melanomas. OBJECTIVES To evaluate the clinical effect of excision of the deep fascia in melanomas thicker than 2 mm on patient outcome. METHODS We performed a retrospective cohort review (1996-2012) of patients with melanomas thicker than 2 mm. Included patients underwent excision with a 1-cm margin. Data collected included the patients' sex, age, tumour location, tumour type, Breslow depth and presence of ulceration. Local recurrences, locoregional and distant metastases, and disease-free and overall survival were compared between the fascia-excised and the fascia-preserved groups. RESULTS Out of 2182 patients with malignant melanomas, 213 melanomas thicker than 2 mm, with a median follow-up of 1547 days, were included. The mean age of the patients was 62·6 years and the mean Breslow depth was 4·2 mm. Analysis of data for death attributable to melanoma (P = 0·72), local recurrence (P = 0·71), and locoregional (P = 0·87) and distant metastases (P = 0·34) were not significantly different between the study groups. Furthermore, Kaplan-Meier and Cox regression analysis of both groups showed no evidence of significant difference regarding disease-free [P = 0·35; hazard ratio (HR) 1·25; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0·79-1·97] and overall survival (P = 0·63; HR 1·18; 95% CI 0·61-2·27). CONCLUSIONS We believe that excision of the deep fascia does not improve the outcome of melanomas thicker than 2 mm.
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BACKGROUND AND AIMS We investigated the association between significant liver fibrosis, determined by AST-to-platelet ratio index (APRI), and all-cause mortality among HIV-infected patients prescribed antiretroviral therapy (ART) in Zambia METHODS: Among HIV-infected adults who initiated ART, we categorized baseline APRI scores according to established thresholds for significant hepatic fibrosis (APRI ≥1.5) and cirrhosis (APRI ≥2.0). Using multivariable logistic regression we identified risk factors for elevated APRI including demographic characteristics, body mass index (BMI), HIV clinical and immunologic status, and tuberculosis. In the subset tested for hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg), we investigated the association of hepatitis B virus co-infection with APRI score. Using Kaplan-Meier analysis and Cox proportional hazards regression we determined the association of elevated APRI with death during ART. RESULTS Among 20,308 adults in the analysis cohort, 1,027 (5.1%) had significant liver fibrosis at ART initiation including 616 (3.0%) with cirrhosis. Risk factors for significant fibrosis or cirrhosis included male sex, BMI <18, WHO clinical stage 3 or 4, CD4+ count <200 cells/mm(3) , and tuberculosis. Among the 237 (1.2%) who were tested, HBsAg-positive patients had four times the odds (adjusted odds ratio, 4.15; 95% CI, 1.71-10.04) of significant fibrosis compared HBsAg-negatives. Both significant fibrosis (adjusted hazard ratio 1.41, 95% CI, 1.21-1.64) and cirrhosis (adjusted hazard ratio 1.57, 95% CI, 1.31-1.89) were associated with increased all-cause mortality. CONCLUSION Liver fibrosis may be a risk factor for mortality during ART among HIV-infected individuals in Africa. APRI is an inexpensive and potentially useful test for liver fibrosis in resource-constrained settings. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.
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IMPORTANCE Owing to a considerable shift toward bioprosthesis implantation rather than mechanical valves, it is expected that patients will increasingly present with degenerated bioprostheses in the next few years. Transcatheter aortic valve-in-valve implantation is a less invasive approach for patients with structural valve deterioration; however, a comprehensive evaluation of survival after the procedure has not yet been performed. OBJECTIVE To determine the survival of patients after transcatheter valve-in-valve implantation inside failed surgical bioprosthetic valves. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS Correlates for survival were evaluated using a multinational valve-in-valve registry that included 459 patients with degenerated bioprosthetic valves undergoing valve-in-valve implantation between 2007 and May 2013 in 55 centers (mean age, 77.6 [SD, 9.8] years; 56% men; median Society of Thoracic Surgeons mortality prediction score, 9.8% [interquartile range, 7.7%-16%]). Surgical valves were classified as small (≤21 mm; 29.7%), intermediate (>21 and <25 mm; 39.3%), and large (≥25 mm; 31%). Implanted devices included both balloon- and self-expandable valves. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES Survival, stroke, and New York Heart Association functional class. RESULTS Modes of bioprosthesis failure were stenosis (n = 181 [39.4%]), regurgitation (n = 139 [30.3%]), and combined (n = 139 [30.3%]). The stenosis group had a higher percentage of small valves (37% vs 20.9% and 26.6% in the regurgitation and combined groups, respectively; P = .005). Within 1 month following valve-in-valve implantation, 35 (7.6%) patients died, 8 (1.7%) had major stroke, and 313 (92.6%) of surviving patients had good functional status (New York Heart Association class I/II). The overall 1-year Kaplan-Meier survival rate was 83.2% (95% CI, 80.8%-84.7%; 62 death events; 228 survivors). Patients in the stenosis group had worse 1-year survival (76.6%; 95% CI, 68.9%-83.1%; 34 deaths; 86 survivors) in comparison with the regurgitation group (91.2%; 95% CI, 85.7%-96.7%; 10 deaths; 76 survivors) and the combined group (83.9%; 95% CI, 76.8%-91%; 18 deaths; 66 survivors) (P = .01). Similarly, patients with small valves had worse 1-year survival (74.8% [95% CI, 66.2%-83.4%]; 27 deaths; 57 survivors) vs with intermediate-sized valves (81.8%; 95% CI, 75.3%-88.3%; 26 deaths; 92 survivors) and with large valves (93.3%; 95% CI, 85.7%-96.7%; 7 deaths; 73 survivors) (P = .001). Factors associated with mortality within 1 year included having small surgical bioprosthesis (≤21 mm; hazard ratio, 2.04; 95% CI, 1.14-3.67; P = .02) and baseline stenosis (vs regurgitation; hazard ratio, 3.07; 95% CI, 1.33-7.08; P = .008). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE In this registry of patients who underwent transcatheter valve-in-valve implantation for degenerated bioprosthetic aortic valves, overall 1-year survival was 83.2%. Survival was lower among patients with small bioprostheses and those with predominant surgical valve stenosis.
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The diagnosis of conventional and oncocytic poorly differentiated (oPD) thyroid carcinomas is difficult. The aim of this study is to characterise their largely unknown miRNA expression profile and to compare it with well-differentiated thyroid tumours, as well as to identify miRNAs which could potentially serve as diagnostic and prognostic markers. A total of 14 poorly differentiated (PD), 13 oPD, 72 well-differentiated thyroid carcinomas and eight normal thyroid specimens were studied for the expression of 768 miRNAs using PCR-Microarrays. MiRNA expression was different between PD and oPD thyroid carcinomas, demonstrating individual clusters on the clustering analysis. Both tumour types showed upregulation of miR-125a-5p, -15a-3p, -182, -183-3p, -222, -222-5p, and downregulation of miR-130b, -139-5p, -150, -193a-5p, -219-5p, -23b, -451, -455-3p and of miR-886-3p as compared with normal thyroid tissue. In addition, the oPD thyroid carcinomas demonstrated upregulation of miR-221 and miR-885-5p. The difference in expression was also observed between miRNA expression in PD and well-differentiated tumours. The CHAID algorithm allowed the separation of PD from well-differentiated thyroid carcinomas with 73-79% accuracy using miR-23b and miR-150 as a separator. Kaplan-Meier and multivariate analysis showed a significant association with tumour relapses (for miR-23b) and with tumour-specific death (for miR-150) in PD and oPD thyroid carcinomas. MiRNA expression is different in conventional and oPD thyroid carcinomas in comparison with well-differentiated thyroid cancers and can be used for discrimination between these tumour types. The newly identified deregulated miRNAs (miR-150, miR-23b) bear the potential to be used in a clinical setting, delivering prognostic and diagnostic informations.
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BACKGROUND Acetabular retroversion is associated with pincer-type femoroacetabular impingement and can lead to hip osteoarthritis. We report the ten-year results of a previously described patient cohort that had corrective periacetabular osteotomy for the treatment of symptomatic acetabular retroversion. METHODS Clinical and radiographic parameters were assessed preoperatively and at two and ten years postoperatively. A Kaplan-Meier survivorship analysis of the twenty-two patients (twenty-nine hips) with a mean follow-up (and standard deviation) of 11 ± 1 years (range, nine to twelve years) was performed. In addition, a univariate Cox regression analysis was done with conversion to total hip arthroplasty as the primary end point and progression of the osteoarthritis, a fair or poor result according to the Merle d'Aubigné score, or the need for revision surgery as the secondary end points. RESULTS The mean Merle d'Aubigné score improved significantly from 14 ± 1.4 points (range, 12 to 17 points) preoperatively to 16.9 ± 0.9 points (range, 15 to 18 points) at ten years (p < 0.001). There were also significant improvements with regard to hip flexion (p = 0.003), internal rotation (p = 0.003), and adduction (p = 0.002) compared with the preoperative status. No significant increase of the mean Tönnis osteoarthritis score was seen at ten years (p = 0.06). The cumulative ten-year survivorship, with conversion to a total hip arthroplasty as the primary end point, was 100%. The cumulative ten-year survivorship in achievement of one of the secondary end points was 71% (95% confidence interval, 54% to 88%). Predictors for poor outcome were the lack of femoral offset creation and overcorrection of the acetabular version resulting in excessive anteversion. CONCLUSIONS Anteverting periacetabular osteotomy for acetabular retroversion leads to favorable long-term results with preservation of the native hip at a mean of ten years. Overcorrection resulting in excessive anteversion of the hip and omitting concomitant offset creation of the femoral head-neck junction are associated with an unfavorable outcome.
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BACKGROUND Patients with femoroacetabular impingement (FAI) often develop pain, impaired function, and progression of osteoarthritis (OA); this is commonly treated using surgical hip dislocation, femoral neck and acetabular rim osteoplasty, and labral reattachment. However, results with these approaches, in particular risk factors for OA progression and conversion to THA, have varied. QUESTIONS/PURPOSES We asked if patients undergoing surgical hip dislocation with labral reattachment to treat FAI experienced (1) improved hip pain and function; and (2) prevention of OA progression; we then determined (3) the survival of the hip at 5-year followup with the end points defined as the need for conversion to THA, progression of OA by at least one Tönnis grade, and/or a Merle d'Aubigné-Postel score less than 15; and calculated (4) factors predicting these end points. METHODS Between July 2001 and March 2003, we performed 146 of these procedures in 121 patients. After excluding 35 patients (37 hips) who had prior open surgery and 11 patients (12 hips) who had a diagnosis of Perthes disease, this study evaluated the 75 patients (97 hips, 66% of the procedures we performed during that time) who had a mean followup of 6 years (range, 5-7 years). We used the anterior impingement test to assess pain, the Merle d'Aubigné-Postel score to assess function, and the Tönnis grade to assess OA. Survival and predictive factors were calculated using the method of Kaplan and Meier and Cox regression, respectively. RESULTS The proportion of patients with anterior impingement decreased from 95% to 17% (p < 0.001); the Merle d'Aubigné-Postel score improved from a mean of 15 to 17 (p < 0.001). Seven hips (7%) showed progression of OA and another seven hips (7%) converted to THA Survival free from any end point (THA, progression of OA, or a Merle d'Aubigné-Postel < 15) of well-functioning joints at 5 years was 91%; and excessive acetabular rim trimming, preoperative OA, increased age at operation, and weight were predictive factors for the end points. CONCLUSIONS At 5-year followup, 91% of patients with FAI treated with surgical hip dislocation, osteoplasty, and labral reattachment showed no THA, progression of OA, or an insufficient clinical result, but excessive acetabular trimming, OA, increased age, and weight were associated with early failure. To prevent early deterioration of the joint, excessive rim trimming or trimming of borderline dysplastic hips has to be avoided.
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Abstract Objectives We report our institutional experience and long-term results with the Sorin Freedom SOLO bovine pericardial stentless bioprosthesis. Methods Between January 2005 and November 2009, 149 patients (mean age 73.6±8.7 years, 68 [45.6%] female) underwent isolated (n=75) or combined (n=74) aortic valve replacement (AVR) using the SOLO in our institution. Follow-up was 100% complete with an average follow-up time of 5.9±2.6 years (maximum 9.6 years) and a total of 885.3 patient years. Results Operative (30-day) mortality was 2.7% (1.3% for isolated AVR [n=1] and 4.0% for combined procedures [n=3]). All causes of death were not valve-related. Preoperative peak (mean) gradients of 74.2±23.0 mmHg (48.6 ± 16.3 mmHg) decreased to 15.6±5.4 (8.8±3.0) after AVR, and remained low for up to 9 years. The postoperative effective orifice area (EOA) was 1.6 ±0.57 cm2, 1.90±0.45 cm2, 2.12±0.48 cm2 and 2.20±0.66 cm2 for the valve sizes 21, 23, 25 and 27, respectively; with absence of severe prosthesis-patient-mismatch (PPM) and 0.7% (n=1) moderate PPM. During follow-up, Twenty-six patients experienced structural valve deterioration (SVD) and 14 patients underwent explantation. Kaplan-Meier estimates for freedom from death, explantation and SVD at 9 years averaged 0.57 [0.47‒0.66], 0.82 [0.69‒0.90] and 0.70 [0.57‒0.79], respectively. Conclusions The Freedom SOLO stentless aortic valve is safe to implant and shows excellent early and mid-term hemodynamic performance. However, SVD was observed in a substantial number of patients after only 5 ̶ 6 years and the need for explantation increased markedly, suggesting low durability.
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BACKGROUND Prostate cancer (PCa) is the second most common disease among men worldwide. It is important to know survival outcomes and prognostic factors for this disease. Recruitment for the largest therapeutic randomised controlled trial in PCa-the Systemic Therapy in Advancing or Metastatic Prostate Cancer: Evaluation of Drug Efficacy: A Multi-Stage Multi-Arm Randomised Controlled Trial (STAMPEDE)-includes men with newly diagnosed metastatic PCa who are commencing long-term androgen deprivation therapy (ADT); the control arm provides valuable data for a prospective cohort. OBJECTIVE Describe survival outcomes, along with current treatment standards and factors associated with prognosis, to inform future trial design in this patient group. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS STAMPEDE trial control arm comprising men newly diagnosed with M1 disease who were recruited between October 2005 and January 2014. OUTCOME MEASUREMENTS AND STATISTICAL ANALYSIS Overall survival (OS) and failure-free survival (FFS) were reported by primary disease characteristics using Kaplan-Meier methods. Hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were derived from multivariate Cox models. RESULTS AND LIMITATIONS A cohort of 917 men with newly diagnosed M1 disease was recruited to the control arm in the specified interval. Median follow-up was 20 mo. Median age at randomisation was 66 yr (interquartile range [IQR]: 61-71), and median prostate-specific antigen level was 112 ng/ml (IQR: 34-373). Most men (n=574; 62%) had bone-only metastases, whereas 237 (26%) had both bone and soft tissue metastases; soft tissue metastasis was found mainly in distant lymph nodes. There were 238 deaths, 202 (85%) from PCa. Median FFS was 11 mo; 2-yr FFS was 29% (95% CI, 25-33). Median OS was 42 mo; 2-yr OS was 72% (95% CI, 68-76). Survival time was influenced by performance status, age, Gleason score, and metastases distribution. Median survival after FFS event was 22 mo. Trial eligibility criteria meant men were younger and fitter than general PCa population. CONCLUSIONS Survival remains disappointing in men presenting with M1 disease who are started on only long-term ADT, despite active treatments being available at first failure of ADT. Importantly, men with M1 disease now spend the majority of their remaining life in a state of castration-resistant relapse. PATIENT SUMMARY Results from this control arm cohort found survival is relatively short and highly influenced by patient age, fitness, and where prostate cancer has spread in the body.
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PURPOSE FGFR3 is considered a good therapeutic target for bladder cancer. However, to our knowledge it is unknown whether the FGFR3 status of primary tumors is a surrogate for related metastases, which must be targeted by FGFR targeted systemic therapies. We assessed FGFR3 protein expression in primary bladder tumors and matched nodal metastases. MATERIALS AND METHODS We examined matched primary tumor and nodal metastases from 150 patients with bladder cancer clinically staged as N0M0. Four samples per patient were incorporated into a tissue microarray and FGFR3 expression was assessed by immunohistochemistry. FGFR3 expression was tested for an association with categorical clinical data using the Fisher exact test, and with overall and recurrence-free survival by Kaplan-Meier analysis. RESULTS Duplicate spots from primary tumors and lymph node metastases were highly concordant (OR 8.6 and 16.7, respectively, each p <0.001). Overall FGFR protein expression levels did not differ between primary and metastatic lesions (p = 0.78). Up-regulated expression was recorded in 53 of 106 evaluable primary tumor spots and 56 matched metastases. Concordance of FGFR3 expression levels in 79 matched primary tumor and metastasis specimens was high (OR 8.45, p <0.001). In 15 and 12 patients expression was up-regulated in only metastasis and in only the primary tumor, respectively. Overall and recurrence-free survival was not related to FGFR3 expression. CONCLUSIONS FGFR3 expression in matched primary and metastasized bladder cancer specimens showed good but not absolute concordance. Thus, in most patients primary tumor FGFR3 status can guide the selection of FGFR targeted therapy.
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BACKGROUND Whether the commonly used bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG) strains Connaught and Tice confer different treatment responses in non-muscle-invasive bladder cancer (NMIBC) is unknown. OBJECTIVES To compare clinical efficacy, immunogenicity, and genetics of BCG Connaught and Tice. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS A prospective randomized single-institution trial with treatment of 142 high-risk NMIBC patients with BCG Connaught or Tice. INTERVENTION Patients were randomized to receive six instillations of BCG Connaught or Tice. For experimental studies, BCG strains were compared in C57Bl/6 mice. Bladders and lymphoid tissues were analyzed by cytometry and the latter cultivated to detect live BCG. BCG genomic DNA was sequenced and compared with reference genomes. OUTCOME MEASUREMENTS AND STATISTICAL ANALYSIS Recurrence-free survival was the primary end point of the clinical study. The Kaplan-Meier estimator was used for estimating survival and time-to-event end points. Nonparametric tests served for the analysis of the in vivo results. RESULTS AND LIMITATIONS Treatment with BCG Connaught conferred significantly greater 5-yr recurrence-free survival compared with treatment with BCG Tice (p=0.0108). Comparable numbers of patients experienced BCG therapy-related side effects in each treatment group (p=0.09). In mice, BCG Connaught induced stronger T-helper cell 1-biased responses, greater priming of BCG-specific CD8(+) T cells, and more robust T-cell recruitment to the bladder than BCG Tice. Genome sequencing of the BCG strains revealed candidate genes potentially involved in the differential clinical responses. CONCLUSIONS BCG strain may have an impact on treatment outcome in NMIBC immunotherapy. PATIENT SUMMARY We compared the efficacy of two commonly used bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG) strains for the treatment of NMIBC and found that treatment with BCG Connaught prevented recurrences more efficiently than BCG Tice. Comparison of the immunogenicity of the two strains in mice indicated superior immunogenicity of BCG Connaught. We also identified genetic differences that may explain the differential efficacy of the Connaught and Tice BCG strains. TRIAL REGISTRATION NCT00003779.
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BACKGROUND: The clinical role of atrial fibrillation/atrial flutter (AF-AFl) and variables predicting these arrhythmias are not well defined in patients with arrhythmogenic right ventricular dysplasia (ARVD). We hypothesized that transthoracic echocardiography (TTE) and 12-lead electrocardiography (ECG) would be helpful in predicting AF-AFl in these patients. METHODS AND RESULTS: ECGs and TTEs of 90 patients diagnosed with definite or borderline ARVD (2010 Task Force Criteria) were analyzed. Data were compared in (1) patients with AF-AFl and (2) all other patients. A total of 18 (20%) patients experienced AF-AFl during a median follow-up of 5.8 years (interquartile range 2.0-10.4). Kaplan-Meier analysis revealed reduced times to AF-AFl among patients with echocardiographic RV fractional area change <27% (P<0.001), left atrial diameter ≥24.4 mm/m(2)(parasternal long-axis, P=0.001), and right atrial short-axis diameter ≥22.1 mm/m(2)(apical 4-chamber view, P=0.05). From all ECG variables, P mitrale conferred the highest hazard ratio (3.37, 95% confidence interval 0.92-12.36, P=0.067). Five patients with AF-AFl experienced inappropriate implantable cardioverter-defibrillator (ICD) shocks compared with 4 without AF-AFl (36% vs. 9%, P=0.03). AF-AFl was more prevalent in heart-transplant patients and those who died of cardiac causes (56% vs. 16%, P=0.014). CONCLUSIONS: AF-AFl is associated with inappropriate ICD shocks, heart transplantation, and cardiac death in patients with ARVD. Evidence of reduced RV function and atrial dilation helps to identify the ARVD patients at increased risk for AF-AFl.
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The value of electrocardiographic findings predicting adverse outcome in patients with arrhythmogenic right ventricular dysplasia (ARVD) is not well known. We hypothesized that ventricular depolarization and repolarization abnormalities on the 12-lead surface electrocardiogram (ECG) predict adverse outcome in patients with ARVD. ECGs of 111 patients screened for the 2010 ARVD Task Force Criteria from 3 Swiss tertiary care centers were digitized and analyzed with a digital caliper by 2 independent observers blinded to the outcome. ECGs were compared in 2 patient groups: (1) patients with major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE: a composite of cardiac death, heart transplantation, survived sudden cardiac death, ventricular fibrillation, sustained ventricular tachycardia, or arrhythmic syncope) and (2) all remaining patients. A total of 51 patients (46%) experienced MACE during a follow-up period with median of 4.6 years (interquartile range 1.8 to 10.0). Kaplan-Meier analysis revealed reduced times to MACE for patients with repolarization abnormalities according to Task Force Criteria (p = 0.009), a precordial QRS amplitude ratio (∑QRS mV V1 to V3/∑QRS mV V1 to V6) of ≤ 0.48 (p = 0.019), and QRS fragmentation (p = 0.045). In multivariable Cox regression, a precordial QRS amplitude ratio of ≤ 0.48 (hazard ratio [HR] 2.92, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.39 to 6.15, p = 0.005), inferior leads T-wave inversions (HR 2.44, 95% CI 1.15 to 5.18, p = 0.020), and QRS fragmentation (HR 2.65, 95% CI 1.1 to 6.34, p = 0.029) remained as independent predictors of MACE. In conclusion, in this multicenter, observational, long-term study, electrocardiographic findings were useful for risk stratification in patients with ARVD, with repolarization criteria, inferior leads TWI, a precordial QRS amplitude ratio of ≤ 0.48, and QRS fragmentation constituting valuable variables to predict adverse outcome.