Using a Prediction and Option Generation Paradigm to Understand Decision Making

In many complex and dynamic domains, the ability to generate and then select the appropriate course of action is based on the decision maker's "reading" of the situation--in other words, their ability to assess the situation and predict how it will evolve over the next few seconds. Current theories regarding option generation during the situation assessment and response phases of decision making offer contrasting views on the cognitive mechanisms that support superior performance. The Recognition-Primed Decision-making model (RPD; Klein, 1989) and Take-The-First heuristic (TTF; Johnson & Raab, 2003) suggest that superior decisions are made by generating few options, and then selecting the first option as the final one. Long-Term Working Memory theory (LTWM; Ericsson & Kintsch, 1995), on the other hand, posits that skilled decision makers construct rich, detailed situation models, and that as a result, skilled performers should have the ability to generate more of the available task-relevant options. The main goal of this dissertation was to use these theories about option generation as a way to further the understanding of how police officers anticipate a perpetrator's actions, and make decisions about how to respond, during dynamic law enforcement situations. An additional goal was to gather information that can be used, in the future, to design training based on the anticipation skills, decision strategies, and processes of experienced officers. Two studies were conducted to achieve these goals. Study 1 identified video-based law enforcement scenarios that could be used to discriminate between experienced and less-experienced police officers, in terms of their ability to anticipate the outcome. The discriminating scenarios were used as the stimuli in Study 2; 23 experienced and 26 less-experienced police officers observed temporally-occluded versions of the scenarios, and then completed assessment and response option-generation tasks. The results provided mixed support for the nature of option generation in these situations. Consistent with RPD and TTF, participants typically selected the first-generated option as their final one, and did so during both the assessment and response phases of decision making. Consistent with LTWM theory, participants--regardless of experience level--generated more task-relevant assessment options than task-irrelevant options. However, an expected interaction between experience level and option-relevance was not observed. Collectively, the two studies provide a deeper understanding of how police officers make decisions in dynamic situations. The methods developed and employed in the studies can be used to investigate anticipation and decision making in other critical domains (e.g., nursing, military). The results are discussed in relation to how they can inform future studies of option-generation performance, and how they could be applied to develop training for law enforcement officers.

Montana In the 1970’s: Seen Through a Reporter’s Eyes -- Chuck Johnson “In the Crucible of Change”

It has been said that “journalism is the first rough draft of history.” If that be the case, much of Montana’s history since 1970 was first written by Chuck Johnson. He has covered the activities of 20 regular sessions of the Legislature plus an untold number of Special Sessions, the Constitutional Convention, nine Governors, eight US Senators and seven US Congressmen. Primary elections, general elections, state and national Party Conventions have been seen by Montanans through Johnson’s prism. Big and little news about policy, insights about politics, and a sense of the people behind the news (and history) has flowed from Chuck Johnson’s pen. Johnson’s first decade as a journalist coincides substantially with the period of “In the Crucible of Change.” Having been one of those who wrote the first draft of much of the history in the series “In the Crucible of Change,” and as “Dean of Montana’s Capitol Reporters,” Chuck’s reflections and insights about the period are conveyed in this film with a maturity and understanding that can only come from one who has spent decades honing is craft to perfection. Chuck Johnson is a journalist who has covered Montana state government and politics since 1970. Since 1992, he has been bureau chief of the Lee Newspapers State Bureau in Helena, writing for the Lee daily newspapers: the Billings Gazette, The Montana Standard (Butte), Helena Independent Record, The Missoulian, and the Ravalli Republic (Hamilton). Johnson, a Great Falls native raised in Helena, was exposed to politics early on when he was taken up to the Legislature one night to watch the debate on the raging issue of the day--whether stores should be allowed to give trading stamps to customers. He received a B.A. in journalism and an M.A. history from the University of Montana. Johnson spent a year studying politics and economics at Oxford University in England on a Rotary Foundation scholarship. He previously was chief of the Great Falls Tribune Capitol Bureau and worked for the Associated Press, Missoulian and Helena Independent Record. Chuck and his wife Pat reside in Helena.

Phylogenetically independent associations between autonomous self-fertilization and plant invasiveness

Many plant species have been introduced from their native ranges to new continents, but few have become naturalized or, ultimately, invasive. It has been predicted that species that do not require the presence of compatible mates and the services of pollinators for reproduction will be favored in establishment after long-distance dispersal. We tested whether this hypothesis, generally referred to as Baker's law, holds for South African species of Iridaceae ( iris family) that have been introduced in other regions for horticultural purposes. Fruit and seed production of flowers from which pollinators had been experimentally excluded was assessed for 10 pairs of species from nine different genera or subgenera. Each species pair comprised one naturalized and one nonnaturalized species, all of which are used in international horticulture. On average, species of Iridaceae that have become naturalized outside their native ranges showed a higher capacity for autonomous fruit and seed production than congeneric species that have not become naturalized. This was especially true for the naturalized species that are considered to be invasive weeds. These results provide strong evidence for the role of autonomous seed production in increasing potential invasiveness in plants.

Individual patient data meta-analysis of diagnostic and prognostic studies in obstetrics, gynaecology and reproductive medicine

BACKGROUND: In clinical practice a diagnosis is based on a combination of clinical history, physical examination and additional diagnostic tests. At present, studies on diagnostic research often report the accuracy of tests without taking into account the information already known from history and examination. Due to this lack of information, together with variations in design and quality of studies, conventional meta-analyses based on these studies will not show the accuracy of the tests in real practice. By using individual patient data (IPD) to perform meta-analyses, the accuracy of tests can be assessed in relation to other patient characteristics and allows the development or evaluation of diagnostic algorithms for individual patients. In this study we will examine these potential benefits in four clinical diagnostic problems in the field of gynaecology, obstetrics and reproductive medicine. METHODS/DESIGN: Based on earlier systematic reviews for each of the four clinical problems, studies are considered for inclusion. The first authors of the included studies will be invited to participate and share their original data. After assessment of validity and completeness the acquired datasets are merged. Based on these data, a series of analyses will be performed, including a systematic comparison of the results of the IPD meta-analysis with those of a conventional meta-analysis, development of multivariable models for clinical history alone and for the combination of history, physical examination and relevant diagnostic tests and development of clinical prediction rules for the individual patients. These will be made accessible for clinicians. DISCUSSION: The use of IPD meta-analysis will allow evaluating accuracy of diagnostic tests in relation to other relevant information. Ultimately, this could increase the efficiency of the diagnostic work-up, e.g. by reducing the need for invasive tests and/or improving the accuracy of the diagnostic workup. This study will assess whether these benefits of IPD meta-analysis over conventional meta-analysis can be exploited and will provide a framework for future IPD meta-analyses in diagnostic and prognostic research.