High strain rate constitutive modeling forhistorical structures subjected to blast loading

Doctoral Thesis Civil Engineering

The short and long-run determinants of the real exchange rate in Mexico

This paper explores the real exchange rate behavior in Mexico from 1960 until 2005. Since the empirical analysis reveals that the real exchange rate is not mean reverting, we propose that economic fundamental variables affect its evolution in the long-run. Therefore, based on equilibrium exchange rate paradigms, we propose a simple model of real exchange rate determination which includes the relative labor productivity, the real interest rates and the net foreign assets over a long period of time. Our analysis also considers the dynamic adjustment in response to shocks through impulse response functions derived from the multivariate VAR model.

Can a Lucas model with habit generate realistic conditional volatility in exchange rate returns?

In this paper, we attempt to give a theoretical underpinning to the well established empirical stylized fact that asset returns in general and the spot FOREX returns in particular display predictable volatility characteristics. Adopting Moore and Roche s habit persistence version of Lucas model we nd that both the innovation in the spot FOREX return and the FOREX return itself follow "ARCH" style processes. Using the impulse response functions (IRFs) we show that the baseline simulated FOREX series has "ARCH" properties in the quarterly frequency that match well the "ARCH" properties of the empirical monthly estimations in that when we scale the x-axis to synchronize the monthly and quarterly responses we find similar impulse responses to one unit shock in variance. The IRFs for the ARCH processes we estimate "look the same" with an approximately monotonic decreasing fashion. The Lucas two-country monetary model with habit can generate realistic conditional volatility in spot FOREX return.

Evolutionary implications of a high selfing rate in the freshwater snail Lymnaea truncatula.

Self-compatible hermaphroditic organisms that mix self-fertilization and outcrossing are of great interest for investigating the evolution of mating systems. We investigate the evolution of selfing in Lymnaea truncatula, a self-compatible hermaphroditic freshwater snail. We first analyze the consequences of selfing in terms of genetic variability within and among populations and then investigate how these consequences along with the species ecology (harshness of the habitat and parasitism) might govern the evolution of selfing. Snails from 13 localities (classified as temporary or permanent depending on their water availability) were sampled in western Switzerland and genotyped for seven microsatellite loci. F(IS) (estimated on adults) and progeny array analyses (on hatchlings) provided similar selfing rate estimates of 80%. Populations presented a low polymorphism and were highly differentiated (F(ST) = 0.58). Although the reproductive assurance hypothesis would predict higher selfing rate in temporary populations, no difference in selfing level was observed between temporary and permanent populations. However, allelic richness and gene diversity declined in temporary habitats, presumably reflecting drift. Infection levels varied but were not simply related to either estimated population selfing rate or to differences in heterozygosity. These findings and the similar selfing rates estimated for hatchlings and adults suggest that within-population inbreeding depression is low in L. truncatula.

Rate and predictors of service disengagement in an epidemiological first-episode psychosis cohort.

OBJECTIVES: To assess the prevalence and predictors of service disengagement in a treated epidemiological cohort of first-episode psychosis (FEP) patients. METHODS: The Early Psychosis Prevention and Intervention Centre (EPPIC) in Australia admitted 786 FEP patients from January 1998 to December 2000. Treatment at EPPIC is scheduled for 18 months. Data were collected from patients' files using a standardized questionnaire. Seven hundred four files were available; 44 were excluded, because of a non-psychotic diagnosis at endpoint (n=43) or missing data on service disengagement (n=1). Rate of service disengagement was the outcome of interest, as well as pre-treatment, baseline, and treatment predictors of service disengagement, which were examined via Cox proportional hazards models. RESULTS: 154 patients (23.3%) disengaged from service. A past forensic history (Hazard ratio [HR]=1.69; 95%CI 1.17-2.45), lower severity of illness at baseline (HR=0.59; 95%CI 0.48-0.72), living without family at discharge (HR=1.75; 95%CI 1.22-2.50) and persistence of substance use disorder during treatment (HR=2.30; 95%CI 1.45-3.66) were significant predictors of disengagement from service. CONCLUSIONS: While engagement strategies are a core element in the treatment of first-episode psychosis, particular attention should be paid to these factors associated with disengagement. Involvement of the family in the treatment process, and focusing on reduction of substance use, need to be pursued in early intervention services.

Estimation de la fonction rénale par l'equation MDRD: intérêt et limites pour l'adaptation des doses de médicaments [Renal function estimation by MDRD equation: interest and limitations for drug dosing].

The MDRD (Modification of diet in renal disease) equation enables glomerular filtration rate (GFR) estimation from serum creatinine only. Thus, the laboratory can report an estimated GFR (eGFR) with each serum creatinine assessment, increasing therefore the recognition of renal failure. Predictive performance of MDRD equation is better for GFR < 60 ml/min/1,73 m2. A normal or near-normal renal function is often underestimated by this equation. Overall, MDRD provides more reliable estimations of renal function than the Cockcroft-Gault (C-G) formula, but both lack precision. MDRD is not superior to C-G for drug dosing. Being adjusted to 1,73 m2, MDRD eGFR has to be back adjusted to the patient's body surface area for drug dosing. Besides, C-G has the advantage of a greater simplicity and a longer use.

Real-life versus package insert: a post-marketing study on adverse-event rates of the virosomal hepatitis A vaccine Epaxal® in healthy travellers.

There are various methods to collect adverse events (AEs) in clinical trials. The methods how AEs are collected in vaccine trials is of special interest: solicited reporting can lead to over-reporting events that have little or no biological relationship to the vaccine. We assessed the rate of AEs listed in the package insert for the virosomal hepatitis A vaccine Epaxal(®), comparing data collected by solicited or unsolicited self-reporting. In an open, multi-centre post-marketing study, 2675 healthy travellers received single doses of vaccine administered intramuscularly. AEs were recorded based on solicited and unsolicited questioning during a four-day period after vaccination. A total of 2541 questionnaires could be evaluated (95.0% return rate). Solicited self-reporting resulted in significantly higher (p<0.0001) rates of subjects with AEs than unsolicited reporting, both at baseline (18.9% solicited versus 2.1% unsolicited systemic AEs) and following immunization (29.6% versus 19.3% local AEs; 33.8% versus 18.2% systemic AEs). This could indicate that actual reporting rates of AEs with Epaxal(®) may be substantially lower than described in the package insert. The distribution of AEs differed significantly between the applied methods of collecting AEs. The most common AEs listed in the package insert were reported almost exclusively with solicited questioning. The reporting of local AEs was more likely than that of systemic AEs to be influenced by subjects' sex, age and study centre. Women reported higher rates of AEs than men. The results highlight the need for detailing the methods how vaccine tolerability was reported and assessed.

Hypoglycémie et traitement du diabète de type 2. Le retour à une normoglycémie n'est pas nécessairement la meilleure stratégie thérapeutique [Hypoglycemia and diabetes treatment: the return to normal glucose level is not always the best therapeutic strategy].

Recent clinical trials with type 2 diabetic patients and the quest of normal glyceamic values, have revealed difficulties and limitations. These too normal glyceamic targets corresponding to the physiological standards are associated with very high rate of hypoglycemia and an increase of mortality. A too simplistic view of treatment: "the lowest, the better is in the diabetes" is no longer defensible. The knowledge from complex systems behavior invites us to search targets adapted to a new state of equilibrium due to loss of self-regulation. These targets should not aim the physiological standards but to be adapted to patient's situation. Shared decision-making and consensus are the two pillars of this new strategy supported by the new ADA-EASD guidelines.

L-canavanine, an inhibitor of inducible nitric oxide synthase, improves venous return in endotoxemic rats.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the hemodynamic effects of L-canavanine (an inhibitor of inducible, but not of constitutive, nitric oxide synthase) in endotoxic shock. DESIGN: Controlled, randomized, experimental study. SETTING: Animal laboratory. SUBJECTS: Wistar rats. INTERVENTIONS: Rats were anesthetized with pentobarbital, and hemodynamically monitored. One hour after an intravenous challenge with 5 mg/kg of Escherichia coli endotoxin, the rats were randomized to receive a continuous infusion of either L-canavanine (20 mg/kg/hr; n = 8) or vehicle only (isotonic saline, n = 11). In all animals, the infusion was given over 5 hrs at a rate of 2 mL/kg/hr. These experiments were repeated in additional rats challenged with isotonic saline instead of endotoxin (sham experiments). MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Arterial blood pressure, heart rate, thermodilution cardiac output, central venous pressure, mean systemic filling pressure, urine output, arterial blood gases, blood lactate concentration, and hematocrit were measured. In sham experiments, hemodynamic stability was maintained throughout and L-canavanine had no detectable effect. Animals challenged with endotoxin and not treated with L-canavanine developed progressive hypotension and low cardiac output. After 6 hrs of endotoxemia, both central venous pressure and mean systemic filling pressure were significantly below their baseline values, indicating relative hypovolemia as the main determinant of reduced cardiac output. In endotoxemic animals treated with L-canavanine, hypotension was less marked, while cardiac output, central venous pressure, and mean systemic filling pressure were maintained throughout the experiment. L-canavanine had no effect on the time-course of hematocrit. L-canavanine significantly increased urine output and reduced the severity of lactic acidosis. CONCLUSIONS: Six hours after an endotoxin challenge in rats, low cardiac output develops, which appears to be primarily related to relative hypovolemia. L-canavanine, a selective inhibitor of the inducible nitric oxide synthase, increases the mean systemic filling pressure, thereby improving venous return, under these conditions.

Concepts and Rationale for Regional Nitrogen Rate Guidelines for Corn, April 2006

Nitrogen (N) is typically one of the largest corn fertilization expenses. Nitrogen application is critical because it signifi cantly improves corn yield in many crop rotations. When choosing N rates, producers need to carefully consider both achieving most profi table economic return and advancing environmental stewardship. In 2004, university agronomists from the Corn Belt states began discussions regarding N rate use for corn production. The reasons for the discussions centered on apparent differences in methods for determining N rates across states, misperceptions regarding N rate guidelines, and concerns about application rates as corn yields have climbed to historic levels. An outcome of those discussions was an effort with the objectives to: ▪ develop N rate guidelines that could be applicable on a regional basis and ▪ identify the most profi table fertilizer N rates for corn production across the Corn Belt. This publication provides an overview of corn N fertilization in regard to rate of application, investigates concepts for determining economic application rates, and describes a suggested regional approach for developing corn N rate guidelines directly from recent research data.

The return of the wage Phillips curve

The standard New Keynesian model with staggered wage settingis shown to imply a simple dynamic relation between wage inflationand unemployment. Under some assumptions, that relation takes aform similar to that found in empirical wage equations-starting fromPhillips' (1958) original work-and may thus be viewed as providingsome theoretical foundations to the latter. The structural wage equation derived here is shown to account reasonably well for the comovement of wage inflation and the unemployment rate in the U.S. economy, even under the strong assumption of a constant natural rate ofunemployment.

Increasing lactate turnover rate during exercise by means of altitude training and fructose ingestion : effects on substrate metabolism and endurance performance

Summary : With regard to exercise metabolism, lactate was long considered as a dead-end waste product responsible for muscle fatigue and a limiting factor for motor performance. However, a large body of evidence clearly indicates that lactate is an energy efficient metabolite able to link the glycolytic pathway with aerobic metabolism and has endocrine-like actions, rather than to be a dead-end waste product. Lactate metabolism is also known to be quickly upregulated by regular endurance training and is thought to be related to exercise performance. However, to what extent its modulation can increase exercise performance in already endurance-trained subjects is unknown. The general hypothesis of this work was therefore that increasing either lactate metabolic clearance rate or lactate availability could, in turn, increase endurance performance. The first study (Study I) aimed at increasing the lactate clearance rate by means of assumed interaction effects of endurance training and hypoxia on lactate metabolism and endurance performance. Although this study did not demonstrate any interaction of training and hypoxia on both lactate metabolism and endurance performance, a significant deleterious effect of endurance training in hypoxia was shown on glucose homeostasis. The methods used to determine lactate kinetics during exercise exhibited some limitations, and the second study did delineate some of the issues raised (Study 2). The third study (Study 3) investigated the metabolic and performance effects of increasing plasma lactate production and availability during prolonged exercise in the fed state. A nutritional intervention was used for this purpose: part of glucose feedings ingested during the control condition was substituted by fructose. The results of this study showed a significant increase of lactate turnover rate, quantified the metabolic fate of fructose; and demonstrated a significant decrease of lipid oxidation and glycogen breakdown. In contrast, endurance performance appeared to be unmodified by this dietary intervention, being at odds with recent reports. Altogether the results of this thesis suggest that in endurance athletes the relationship between endurance performance and lactate turnover rate remains unclear. Nonetheless, the result of the present study raises questions and opens perspectives on the rationale of using hypoxia as a therapeutic aid for the treatment of insulin resistance. Moreover, the results of the second study open perspectives on the role of lactate as an intermediate metabolite and its modulatory effects on substrate metabolism during exercise. Additionally it is suggested that the simple nutritional intervention used in the third study can be of interest in the investigation on the aforementioned roles of lactate. Résumé : Lorsque le lactate est évoqué en rapport avec l'exercice, il est souvent considéré comme un déchet métabolique responsable de l'acidose métabolique, de la fatigue musculaire ou encore comme un facteur limitant de la performance. Or la littérature montre clairement que le lactate se révèle être plutôt un métabolite utilisé efficacement par de nombreux tissus par les voies oxydatives et, ainsi, il peut être considéré comme un lien entre le métabolisme glycolytique et le métabolisme oxydatif. De plus on lui prête des propriétés endocrines. Il est connu que l'entraînement d'endurance accroît rapidement le métabolisme du lactate, et il est suggéré que la performance d'endurance est liée à son métabolisme. Toutefois la relation entre le taux de renouvellement du lactate et la performance d'endurance est peu claire, et, de même, de quelle manière la modulation de son métabolisme peut influencer cette dernière. Le but de cette thèse était en conséquence d'investiguer de quelle manière et à quel degré l'augmentation du métabolisme du lactate, par l'augmentation de sa clearance et de son turnover, pouvait à son tour améliorer la performance d'endurance de sujets entraînés. L'objectif de la première étude a été d'augmenter la clearance du lactate par le biais d'un entraînement en conditions hypoxiques chez des cyclistes d'endurance. Basé sur la littérature scientifique existante, on a fait l'hypothèse que l'entraînement d'endurance et l'hypoxie exerceraient un effet synergétique sur le métabolisme du lactate et sur la performance, ce qui permettrait de montrer des relations entre performance et métabolisme du lactate. Les résultats de cette étude n'ont montré aucun effet synergique sur la performance ou le métabolisme du lactate. Toutefois, un effet délétère sur le métabolisme du glucose a été démontré. Quelques limitations de la méthode employée pour la mesure du métabolisme du lactate ont été soulevées, et partiellement résolues dans la seconde étude de ce travail, qui avait pour but d'évaluer la sensibilité du modèle pharmacodynamique utilisé pour le calcul du turnover du lactate. La troisième étude a investigué l'effet d'une augmentation de la lactatémie sur le métabolisme des substrats et sur la performance par une intervention nutritionnelle substituant une partie de glucose ingéré pendant l'exercice par du fructose. Les résultats montrent que les composants dynamiques du métabolisme du lactate sont significativement augmentés en présence de fructose, et que les oxydations de graisse et de glycogène sont significativement diminuées. Toutefois aucun effet sur la performance n'a été démontré. Les résultats de ces études montrent que la relation entre le métabolisme du lactate et la performance reste peu claire. Les résultats délétères de la première étude laissent envisager des pistes de travail, étant donné que l'entraînement en hypoxie est considéré comme outil thérapeutique dans le traitement de pathologies liées à la résistance à l'insuline. De plus les résultats de la troisième étude ouvrent des perspectives de travail quant au rôle du lactate comme intermédiaire métabolique durant l'exercice ainsi que sur ses effets directs sur le métabolisme. Ils suggèrent de plus que la manipulation nutritionnelle simple qui a été utilisée se révèle être un outil prometteur dans l'étude des rôles et effets métaboliques que peut revêtir le lactate durant l'exercice.

Ectopic pacing at physiological rate improves postanoxic recovery of the developing heart.

Recently, rapid and transient cardiac pacing was shown to induce preconditioning in animal models. Whether the electrical stimulation per se or the concomitant myocardial ischemia affords such a protection remains unknown. We tested the hypothesis that chronic pacing of a cardiac preparation maintained in a normoxic condition can induce protection. Hearts of 4-day-old chick embryos were electrically paced in ovo over a 12-h period using asynchronous and intermittent ventricular stimulation (5 min on-10 min off) at 110% of the intrinsic rate. Sham (n = 6) and paced hearts (n = 6) were then excised, mounted in vitro, and subjected successively to 30 min of normoxia (20% O(2)), 30 min of anoxia (0% O(2)), and 60 min of reoxygenation (20% O(2)). Electrocardiogram and atrial and ventricular contractions were simultaneously recorded throughout the experiment. Reoxygenation-induced chrono-, dromo-, and inotropic disturbances, incidence of arrhythmias, and changes in electromechanical delay (EMD) in atria and ventricle were systematically investigated in sham and paced hearts. Under normoxia, the isolated heart beat spontaneously and regularly, and all baseline functional parameters were similar in sham and paced groups (means +/- SD): heart rate (190 +/- 36 beats/min), P-R interval (104 +/- 25 ms), mechanical atrioventricular propagation (20 +/- 4 mm/s), ventricular shortening velocity (1.7 +/- 1 mm/s), atrial EMD (17 +/- 4 ms), and ventricular EMD (16 +/- 2 ms). Under anoxia, cardiac function progressively collapsed, and sinoatrial activity finally stopped after approximately 9 min in both groups. During reoxygenation, paced hearts showed 1) a lower incidence of arrhythmias than sham hearts, 2) an increased rate of recovery of ventricular contractility compared with sham hearts, and 3) a faster return of ventricular EMD to basal value than sham hearts. However, recovery of heart rate, atrioventricular conduction, and atrial EMD was not improved by pacing. Activity of all hearts was fully restored at the end of reoxygenation. These findings suggest that chronic electrical stimulation of the ventricle at a near-physiological rate selectively alters some cellular functions within the heart and constitutes a nonischemic means to increase myocardial tolerance to a subsequent hypoxia-reoxygenation.

Three essays in financial economics: asset pricing, optimal portfolio selection and financial integration

Executive Summary The unifying theme of this thesis is the pursuit of a satisfactory ways to quantify the riskureward trade-off in financial economics. First in the context of a general asset pricing model, then across models and finally across country borders. The guiding principle in that pursuit was to seek innovative solutions by combining ideas from different fields in economics and broad scientific research. For example, in the first part of this thesis we sought a fruitful application of strong existence results in utility theory to topics in asset pricing. In the second part we implement an idea from the field of fuzzy set theory to the optimal portfolio selection problem, while the third part of this thesis is to the best of our knowledge, the first empirical application of some general results in asset pricing in incomplete markets to the important topic of measurement of financial integration. While the first two parts of this thesis effectively combine well-known ways to quantify the risk-reward trade-offs the third one can be viewed as an empirical verification of the usefulness of the so-called "good deal bounds" theory in designing risk-sensitive pricing bounds. Chapter 1 develops a discrete-time asset pricing model, based on a novel ordinally equivalent representation of recursive utility. To the best of our knowledge, we are the first to use a member of a novel class of recursive utility generators to construct a representative agent model to address some long-lasting issues in asset pricing. Applying strong representation results allows us to show that the model features countercyclical risk premia, for both consumption and financial risk, together with low and procyclical risk free rate. As the recursive utility used nests as a special case the well-known time-state separable utility, all results nest the corresponding ones from the standard model and thus shed light on its well-known shortcomings. The empirical investigation to support these theoretical results, however, showed that as long as one resorts to econometric methods based on approximating conditional moments with unconditional ones, it is not possible to distinguish the model we propose from the standard one. Chapter 2 is a join work with Sergei Sontchik. There we provide theoretical and empirical motivation for aggregation of performance measures. The main idea is that as it makes sense to apply several performance measures ex-post, it also makes sense to base optimal portfolio selection on ex-ante maximization of as many possible performance measures as desired. We thus offer a concrete algorithm for optimal portfolio selection via ex-ante optimization over different horizons of several risk-return trade-offs simultaneously. An empirical application of that algorithm, using seven popular performance measures, suggests that realized returns feature better distributional characteristics relative to those of realized returns from portfolio strategies optimal with respect to single performance measures. When comparing the distributions of realized returns we used two partial risk-reward orderings first and second order stochastic dominance. We first used the Kolmogorov Smirnov test to determine if the two distributions are indeed different, which combined with a visual inspection allowed us to demonstrate that the way we propose to aggregate performance measures leads to portfolio realized returns that first order stochastically dominate the ones that result from optimization only with respect to, for example, Treynor ratio and Jensen's alpha. We checked for second order stochastic dominance via point wise comparison of the so-called absolute Lorenz curve, or the sequence of expected shortfalls for a range of quantiles. As soon as the plot of the absolute Lorenz curve for the aggregated performance measures was above the one corresponding to each individual measure, we were tempted to conclude that the algorithm we propose leads to portfolio returns distribution that second order stochastically dominates virtually all performance measures considered. Chapter 3 proposes a measure of financial integration, based on recent advances in asset pricing in incomplete markets. Given a base market (a set of traded assets) and an index of another market, we propose to measure financial integration through time by the size of the spread between the pricing bounds of the market index, relative to the base market. The bigger the spread around country index A, viewed from market B, the less integrated markets A and B are. We investigate the presence of structural breaks in the size of the spread for EMU member country indices before and after the introduction of the Euro. We find evidence that both the level and the volatility of our financial integration measure increased after the introduction of the Euro. That counterintuitive result suggests the presence of an inherent weakness in the attempt to measure financial integration independently of economic fundamentals. Nevertheless, the results about the bounds on the risk free rate appear plausible from the view point of existing economic theory about the impact of integration on interest rates.

Essays on the treatment of cash flows under stochastic interest rates

Abstract This paper shows how to calculate recursively the moments of the accumulated and discounted value of cash flows when the instantaneous rates of return follow a conditional ARMA process with normally distributed innovations. We investigate various moment based approaches to approximate the distribution of the accumulated value of cash flows and we assess their performance through stochastic Monte-Carlo simulations. We discuss the potential use in insurance and especially in the context of Asset-Liability Management of pension funds.