Effect of sampling interval on estimates of larval supply

Estimates of larval supply can provide information on year-class strength that is useful for fisheries management. However, larval supply is difficult to monitor because long-term, high-frequency sampling is needed. The purpose of this study was to subsample an 11-year record of daily larval supply of blue crab (Callinectes sapidus) to determine the effect of sampling interval on variability in estimates of supply. The coefficient of variation in estimates of supply varied by 0.39 among years at a 2-day sampling interval and 0.84 at a 7-day sampling interval. For 8 of the 11 years, there was a significant correlation between mean daily larval supply and lagged fishery catch per trip (coefficient of correlation [r]=0.88). When these 8 years were subsampled, a 2-day sampling interval yielded a significant correlation with fishery data only 64.5% of the time and a 3-day sampling interval never yielded a significant correlation. Therefore, high-frequency sampling (daily or every other day) may be needed to characterize interannual variability in larval supply.

Staging ovaries of Haddock (Melanogrammus aeglefinus): implications for maturity indices and field sampling practices

We build on recent efforts to standardize maturation staging methods through the development of a field-proof macroscopic ovarian maturity index for Haddock (Melanogrammus aeglefinus) for studies on diel spawning periodicity. A comparison of field and histological observations helped us to improve the field index and methods, and provided useful insight into the reproductive biology of Haddock and other boreal determinate fecundity species. We found reasonable agreement between field and histological methods, except for the regressing and regenerating stages (however, differentiation of these 2 stages is the least important distinction for determination of maturity or reproductive dynamics). The staging of developing ovaries was problematic for both methods partly because of asynchronous oocyte hydration during the early stage of oocyte maturation. Although staging on the basis of histology in a laboratory is generally more accurate than macroscopic staging methods in the field, we found that field observations can uncover errors in laboratory staging that result from bias in sampling unrepresentative portions of ovaries. For 2 specimens, immature ovaries observed during histological examination were incorrectly assigned as regenerating during macroscopic staging. This type of error can lead to miscalculation of length at maturity and of spawning stock biomass, metrics that are used to characterize the state of a fish population. The revised field index includes 3 new macroscopic stages that represent final oocyte maturation in a batch of oocytes and were found to be reliable for staging spawning readiness in the field. The index was found to be suitable for studies of diel spawning periodicity and conforms to recent standardization guidelines.

Efficient sampling of atomic configurational spaces.

We describe a method to explore the configurational phase space of chemical systems. It is based on the nested sampling algorithm recently proposed by Skilling (AIP Conf. Proc. 2004, 395; J. Bayesian Anal. 2006, 1, 833) and allows us to explore the entire potential energy surface (PES) efficiently in an unbiased way. The algorithm has two parameters which directly control the trade-off between the resolution with which the space is explored and the computational cost. We demonstrate the use of nested sampling on Lennard-Jones (LJ) clusters. Nested sampling provides a straightforward approximation for the partition function; thus, evaluating expectation values of arbitrary smooth operators at arbitrary temperatures becomes a simple postprocessing step. Access to absolute free energies allows us to determine the temperature-density phase diagram for LJ cluster stability. Even for relatively small clusters, the efficiency gain over parallel tempering in calculating the heat capacity is an order of magnitude or more. Furthermore, by analyzing the topology of the resulting samples, we are able to visualize the PES in a new and illuminating way. We identify a discretely valued order parameter with basins and suprabasins of the PES, allowing a straightforward and unambiguous definition of macroscopic states of an atomistic system and the evaluation of the associated free energies.

A biogeographic assessment of the Channel Islands National Marine Sanctuary: a review of boundary expansion concepts for NOAA’s National Marine Sanctuary Program

The priority management goal of the National Marine Sanctuaries Program (NMSP) is to protect marine ecosystems and biodiversity. This goal requires an understanding of broad-scale ecological relationships and linkages between marine resources and physical oceanography to support an ecosystem management approach. The Channel Islands National Marine Sanctuary (CINMS) is currently reviewing its management plan and investigating boundary expansion. A management plan study area (henceforth, Study Area) was described that extends from the current boundary north to the mainland, and extends north to Point Sal and south to Point Dume. Six additional boundary concepts were developed that vary in area and include the majority of the Study Area. The NMSP and CINMS partnered with NOAA’s National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science Biogeography Team to conduct a biogeographic assessment to characterize marine resources and oceanographic patterns within and adjacent to the sanctuary. This assessment includes a suite of quantitative spatial and statistical analyses that characterize biological and oceanographic patterns in the marine region from Point Sal to the U.S.-Mexico border. These data were analyzed using an index which evaluates an ecological “cost-benefit” within the proposed boundary concepts and the Study Area. The sanctuary resides in a dynamic setting where two oceanographic regimes meet. Cold northern waters mix with warm southern waters around the Channel Islands creating an area of transition that strongly influences the regions oceanography. In turn, these processes drive the biological distributions within the region. This assessment analyzes bathymetry, benthic substrate, bathymetric life-zones, sea surface temperature, primary production, currents, submerged aquatic vegetation, and kelp in the context of broad-scale patterns and relative to the proposed boundary concepts and the Study Area. Boundary cost-benefit results for these parameters were variable due to their dynamic nature; however, when analyzed in composite the Study Area and Boundary Concept 2 were considered the most favorable. Biological data were collected from numerous resource agencies and university scientists for this assessment. Fish and invertebrate trawl data were used to characterize community structure. Habitat suitability models were developed for 15 species of macroinvertebrates and 11 species of fish that have significant ecological, commercial, or recreational importance in the region and general patterns of ichthyoplankton distribution are described. Six surveys of ship and plane at-sea surveys were used to model marine bird diversity from Point Arena to the U.S.-Mexico border. Additional surveys were utilized to estimate density and colony counts for nine bird species. Critical habitat for western snowy plover and the location of California least tern breeding pairs were also analyzed. At-sea surveys were also used to describe the distribution of 14 species of cetaceans and five species of pinnipeds. Boundary concept cost-benefit indices revealed that Boundary Concept 2 and the Study Area were most favorable for the majority of the species-specific analyses. Boundary Concept 3 was most favorable for bird diversity across the region. Inadequate spatial resolution for fish and invertebrate community data and incompatible sampling effort information for bird and mammal data precluded boundary cost-benefit analysis.

Sampling design tool for ArcGIS: Instruction manual.[for ESRI ArcGIS 10.0 Service Pack 3 or higher]

The Biogeography Branch’s Sampling Design Tool for ArcGIS provides a means to effectively develop sampling strategies in a geographic information system (GIS) environment. The tool was produced as part of an iterative process of sampling design development, whereby existing data informs new design decisions. The objective of this process, and hence a product of this tool, is an optimal sampling design which can be used to achieve accurate, highprecision estimates of population metrics at a minimum of cost. Although NOAA’s Biogeography Branch focuses on marine habitats and some examples reflects this, the tool can be used to sample any type of population defined in space, be it coral reefs or corn fields.

Support for integrated ecosystem assessments of NOAA’s National Estuarine Research Reserve System (NERRS): assessment of ecological condition and stressor impacts in subtidal waters of the Sapelo Island National Estuarine Research Reserve

A study was conducted in June 2009 to assess the current status of ecological condition and potential human-health risks throughout subtidal estuarine waters of the Sapelo Island National Estuarine Research Reserve (SINERR) along the coast of Georgia. Samples were collected for multiple indicators of ecosystem condition, including water quality (dissolved oxygen, salinity, temperature, pH, nutrients and chlorophyll, suspended solids, fecal coliform bacteria and coliphages), sediment quality (granulometry, organic matter content, chemical contaminant concentrations), biological condition (diversity and abundance of benthic fauna, fish tissue contaminant levels and pathologies), and human dimensions (fish-tissue contaminant levels relative to human-health consumption limits, various aesthetic properties). Use of a probabilistic sampling design facilitated the calculation of statistics to estimate the spatial extent of the Reserve classified according to various categories (i.e., Good, Fair, Poor) of ecological condition relative to established thresholds of these indicators, where available. Overall, the majority of subtidal habitat in the SINERR appeared to be healthy, with over half (56.7 %) of the Reserve area having water quality, sediment quality, and benthic biological condition indicators rated in the healthy to intermediate range of corresponding guideline thresholds. None of the stations sampled had one or more indicators in all three categories rated as poor/degraded. While these results are encouraging, it should be noted that one or more indicators were rated as poor/degraded in at least one of the three categories over 40% of the Reserve study area, represented by 12 of the 30 stations sampled. Although measures of fish tissue chemical contamination were not included in any of the above estimates, a number of trace metals, pesticides, polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs), and polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) were found at low yet detectable levels in some fish at stations where fish were caught. Levels of mercury and total PCBs in some fish specimens fell within EPA guideline values considered safe, given a consumption rate of no more than four fish meals per month. Moreover, PCB congener profiles in sediments and fish in the SINERR exhibit a relative abundance of higher-chlorinated homologs which are uniquely characteristic of Aroclor 1268. It has been well-documented that sediments and fish in the creeks and marshes near the LCP Chemicals Superfund site, near Brunswick, Georgia, also display this congener pattern associated with Aroclor 1268, a highly chlorinated mixture of PCBs used extensively at a chlor-alkali plant that was in operation at the LCP site from 1955-1994. This report provides results suggesting that the protected habitats lying within the boundaries of the SINERR may be experiencing the effects of a legacy of chemical contamination at a site over 40km away. These effects, as well as other potential stressors associated with increased development of nearby coastal areas, underscore the importance of establishing baseline ecological conditions that can be used to track potential changes in the future and to guide management and stewardship of the otherwise relatively unspoiled ecosystems of the SINERR.

Statistical analyses to support guidelines for marine avian sampling: Final report. [Digital Supplements A-G attached]

Interest in development of offshore renewable energy facilities has led to a need for high-quality, statistically robust information on marine wildlife distributions. A practical approach is described to estimate the amount of sampling effort required to have sufficient statistical power to identify species specific “hotspots” and “coldspots” of marine bird abundance and occurrence in an offshore environment divided into discrete spatial units (e.g., lease blocks), where “hotspots” and “coldspots” are defined relative to a reference (e.g., regional) mean abundance and/or occurrence probability for each species of interest. For example, a location with average abundance or occurrence that is three times larger the mean (3x effect size) could be defined as a “hotspot,” and a location that is three times smaller than the mean (1/3x effect size) as a “coldspot.” The choice of the effect size used to define hot and coldspots will generally depend on a combination of ecological and regulatory considerations. A method is also developed for testing the statistical significance of possible hotspots and coldspots. Both methods are illustrated with historical seabird survey data from the USGS Avian Compendium Database.

Biogeographic characterization of fish communities and associated benthic habitats within the Flower Garden Banks National Marine Sanctuary: sampling design and implementation of scuba surveys on the coral caps

The Flower Garden Banks National Marine Sanctuary (FGBNMS) is located in the northwestern Gulf of Mexico approximately 180 km south of Galveston, Texas. The sanctuary’s distance from shore combined with its depth (the coral caps reach to within approximately 17 m of the surface) result in limited exposure of this coral reef ecosystem to natural and human-induced impacts compared to other coral reefs of the western Atlantic. In spite of this, the sanctuary still confronts serious impacts including hurricanes events, recent outbreaks of coral disease, an increase in the frequency of coral bleaching and the massive Diadema antillarum die-off during the mid-1980s. Anthropogenic impacts include large vessel anchoring, commercial and recreational fishing, recreational scuba diving, and oil and gas related activities. The FGBNMS was designated in 1992 to help protect against some of these impacts. Basic monitoring and research efforts have been conducted on the banks since the 1970s. Early on, these efforts focused primarily on describing the benthic communities (corals, sponges) and providing qualitative characterizations of the fish community. Subsequently, more quantitative work has been conducted; however, it has been limited in spatial scope. To complement these efforts, the current study addresses the following two goals put forth by sanctuary management: 1) to develop a sampling design for monitoring benthic fish communities across the coral caps; and 2) to obtain a spatial and quantitative characterization of those communities and their associated habitats.

Manual for the Sampling Design Tool for ArcGIS

The Biogeography Branch’s Sampling Design Tool for ArcGIS provides a means to effectively develop sampling strategies in a geographic information system (GIS) environment. The tool was produced as part of an iterative process of sampling design development, whereby existing data informs new design decisions. The objective of this process, and hence a product of this tool, is an optimal sampling design which can be used to achieve accurate, high-precision estimates of population metrics at a minimum of cost. Although NOAA’s Biogeography Branch focuses on marine habitats and some examples reflects this, the tool can be used to sample any type of population defined in space, be it coral reefs or corn fields.