An Assessment Of The Economic Impact Of Climate Change On The Transportation Sector In Montserrat

.--I. Introduction.--II. Literature review regarding climate change impacts on international transportation.--III. Economy of the Caribbean subregion and Monserrat.--IV. The international transportaion system in the Caribbean and in Monserrat.--V. Vulnerabilities of international transport system in Monserrat to climate change.--VI. Modelling.-- VII. Economic impact analysis of climate chage on the international transport.-- VIII. Approaches to mitigation and adaptation in the air and sea transportation sectors.-- IX. Conclusions

An assessment of the economic impact of climate change on the coastal and marine sector in the British Virgin Islands

Owing to their high vulnerability and low adaptive capacity, Caribbean islands have legitimate concerns about their future, based on observational records, experience with current patterns and consequences of climate variability, and climate model projections. Although emitting less than 1% of global greenhouse gases, islands from the region have already perceived a need to reallocate scarce resources away from economic development and poverty reduction, and towards the implementation of strategies to adapt to the growing threats posed by global warming (Nurse and Moore, 2005). The objectives of this Report are to conduct economic analyses of the projected impacts of climate change to 2050, within the context of the IPCC A2 and B2 scenarios, on the coastal and marine resources of the British Virgin Islands (BVI). The Report presents a valuation of coastal and marine services; quantitative and qualitative estimates of climate change impacts on the coastal zone; and recommendations of possible adaptation strategies and costs and benefits of adaptation. A multi-pronged approach is employed in valuing the marine and coastal sector. Direct use and indirect use values are estimated. The amount of economic activity an ecosystem service generates in the local economy underpins estimation of direct use values. Tourism and fisheries are valued using the framework developed by the World Resources Institute. Biodiversity is valued in terms of the ecological functions it provides, such as climate regulation, shoreline protection, water supply erosion control and sediment retention, and biological control, among others. Estimates of future losses to the coastal zone from climate change are determined by considering: (1) the effect of sea level rise on coastal lands; and (2) the effect of a rise in sea surface temperature (SST) on coastal waters. Discount rates of 1%, 2% and 4% are employed to analyse all loss estimates in present value terms. The overall value for the coastal and marine sector is USD $1,606 million (mn). This is almost 2% larger than BVI’s 2008 GDP. Tourism and recreation comprise almost two-thirds of the value of the sector. By 2100, the effects of climate change on coastal lands are projected to be $3,988.6 mn, and $2,832.9 mn under the A2 and B2 scenarios respectively. In present value terms, if A2 occurs, losses range from $108.1-$1,596.8 mn and if B2 occurs, losses range from $74.1-$1,094.1 mn, depending on the discount rate used. Estimated costs of a rise in SST in 2050 indicate that they vary between $1,178.0 and $1,884.8 mn. Assuming a discount rate of 4%, losses range from $226.6 mn for the B2 scenario to $363.0 mn for the A2 scenario. If a discount rate of 1% is assumed, estimated losses are much greater, ranging from $775.6-$1,241.0 mn. Factoring in projected climate change impacts, the net value of the coastal and marine sector suggests that the costs of climate change significantly reduce the value of the sector, particularly under the A2 and B2 climate change scenarios for discount rates of 1% and 2%. In contrast, the sector has a large, positive, though declining trajectory, for all years when a 4% discount rate is employed. Since the BVI emits minimal greenhouse gases, but will be greatly affected by climate change, the report focuses on adaptation as opposed to mitigation strategies. The options shortlisted are: (1) enhancing monitoring of all coastal waters to provide early warning alerts of bleaching and other marine events; (2) introducing artificial reefs or fish-aggregating devices; (3) introducing alternative tourist attractions; (4) providing retraining for displaced tourism workers; and (5) revising policies related to financing national tourism offices to accommodate the new climatic realities. All adaptation options considered are quite justifiable in national terms; each had benefit-cost ratios greater than 1.

An assessment of the economic impact of climate change on the tourism sector in Montserrat

This report provides an analysis and evaluation of the likely effects of climate change on the tourism sector in Montserrat. Clayton (2009) identifies three reasons why the Caribbean should be concerned about the potential effects of climate change on tourism: (a) the relatively high dependence on tourism as a source of foreign exchange and employment; (b) the intrinsic vulnerability of small islands and their infrastructure (e.g. hotels and resorts) to sea level rise and extreme climatic events (e.g. hurricanes and floods); and, (c) the high dependence of the regional tourist industry on carbon-based fuels (both to bring tourist to the region as well as to provide support services in the region). The effects of climate change are already being felt on the island. Between 1970 and 2009, there was a rise in the number of relatively hot days experienced on the island. Added to this, there was also a decline in mean precipitation over the period. Besides temperature, there is also the threat of wind speeds. Since the early 20th century, the number of hurricanes passing through the Caribbean has risen from about 5-6 per year to more than 25 in some years of the twenty-first century. In Montserrat, the estimated damage from four windstorms (including hurricanes) affecting the island was US$260 million or almost five times 2009 gross domestic product (GDP). Climate change is also likely to significantly affect coral reefs. Hoegh-Guldberg (2007) estimates that should current concentrations of carbon dioxide in the Earth’s atmosphere rise from 380ppm to 560ppm, decreases in coral calcification and growth by 40% are likely. The report attempted to quantify the likely effects of the changes in the climatic factors mentioned above. As it relates to temperature and other climatic variables, a tourism climatic index that captures the elements of climate that impact on a destination’s experience was constructed. The index was calculated using historical observations as well as those under two likely climate scenarios: A2 and B2. The results suggest that under both scenarios, the island’s key tourism climatic features will likely decline and therefore negatively impact on the destination experience of visitors. Including this tourism climatic index in a tourism demand model suggests that this would translate into losses of around 145% of GDP. As it relates to coral reefs, the value of the damage due to the loss of coral reefs was estimated at 7.6 times GDP, while the damage due to land loss for the tourism industry was 45% of GDP. The total cost of climate change for the tourism industry was therefore projected to be 9.6 times 2009 GDP over a 40-year horizon. Given the potential for significant damage to the industry, a large number of potential adaptation measures were considered. Out of these, a short-list of 9 potential options was selected using 10 evaluation criteria. These included: (a) Increasing recommended design wind speeds for new tourism-related structures; (b) Construction of water storage tanks; (c) Irrigation network that allows for the recycling of waste water; (d) Enhanced reef monitoring systems to provide early warning alerts of bleaching events; (e) Deployment of artificial reefs and fish-aggregating devices; (f) Developing national evacuation and rescue plans; (g) Introduction of alternative attractions; (h) Providing re-training for displaced tourism workers, and; (i) Revised policies related to financing national tourism offices to accommodate the new climatic realities Using cost-benefit analysis, three options were put forward as being financially viable and ready for immediate implementation: (a) Increase recommended design speeds for new tourism-related structures; (b) Enhance reef monitoring systems to provide early warning alerts of bleaching events, and; (c) Deploy artificial reefs or fish-aggregating devices. While these options had positive benefit cost ratios, other options were also recommended based on their non-tangible benefits: an irrigation network that allows for the recycling of waste water, development of national evacuation and rescue plans, providing retraining for displaced tourism workers and the revision of policies related to financing national tourism offices to accommodate the new climatic realities.

The economics of climate change in the Caribbean

The present volume captures the results of the studies conducted during Phase 2 of the RECCC project to date. Chapter 1 provides the contextual framework within which the assessments were conducted and Chapter 2 focuses on the emissions scenarios as set out by the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The results of the economic assessments of the impacts of climate change on the agricultural, coastal and marine, energy and transportation, health, freshwater resources and tourism sectors in the Caribbean subregion are presented in Chapters 3 to 9, respectively. The report concludes with an examination of adaptation strategies and key policy recommendations for policymakers, in Chapter 10.

Climate change in Central América: Potential impacts and public policy options

Since 2008 we have supported the collaborative initiative "Economics of Climate Change in Central America" aimed at demonstrating the impacts of climate variability and change and fostering a discussion on public policies in key sectors. The initiative has been led by the Ministries of Environment and Treasury or Finance of Central America, with the support of their ministerial councils, CCAD, COSEFIN, and Economic Integration Secretariat, SIECA. The Ministries of Agriculture and of Health, with their councils, CAC and COMISCA, have also joined the effort; and the Dominican Republic came on board in 2015.

Climate change and carbon markets: implications for developing countries

While the Kyoto Protocol provided a framework for reducing the greenhouse gas emissions of industrialized nations, current climate change negotiations envisage future commitments for major co2 emitters among developing countries. This document uses an updated version of the gtap-e general equilibrium model to analyse the economic implications of reducing carbon emissions under different carbon trading scenarios. The participation of developing countries such as China and India would reduce emissions trading costs. Impacts in Latin America would depend on whether a country is an energy exporter or importer and whether the United States reduces emissions. Welfare impacts might be negative depending on the carbon trading scheme adopted and a country’s trading partners.

The effects of climate change on the coasts of Latin America and the Caribbean: Climate variability, dynamics and trends

This effort to study the effects of climate change in the coastal areas of Latin America and the Caribbean has been divided into four main parts in line with the comprehensive risk-assessment methodology developed. The outputs of this regional study are presented in four core documents: an analysis of coastal dynamics and climate variability, a study on the vulnerability of coastal areas, an evaluation of the impacts of climate change and an exploration of how all these different factors can be brought together in an assessment of the risks of the impacts of climate change on the region’s coastal areas. The overall objective of this study is to compile the specific types of information required in order to analyse the economic impacts of climate change in the coastal areas of Latin America and the Caribbean. The area covered by the study encompasses the coastlines of Latin America and the Caribbean (an area totalling approximately 72,182 km in length).

Financing for climate change in Latin America and the Caribbean in 2014

Quantifying the resources mobilized to tackle climate change makes it possible to ascertain the region’s status in this area and the opportunities it offers. It provides countries with the detailed information they need to move forward and prepare to meet the objectives of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). With accurate, up-to-date information on climate finance flows, countries can define their strategies for the transition to more sustainable development scenarios with a smaller environmental footprint and fiscal agents can identify gaps between supply and demand for specific financial instruments. The hope is that, rather than investment by fund providers and managers in sustainable initiatives with a smaller environmental footprint being an exception or anomaly, it will become a business model that gradually decouples economic development, investment and social inclusion from greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.

Tracking climatically suitable areas for an endemic Cerrado snake under climate change

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Book Review of <i> "Will the Circle Be Unbroken?": Aboriginal Communities, Restorative Justice, and the Challenges of Conflict and Changei> by Jane Dickson-Gilmore and Carol La Prairie

Over the past decade or two, restorative justice has become a popular approach for the criminal justice system to take in Canada, New Zealand, and Australia. In part, this is due in all three countries to an appalling disproportionality in the incarceration rates for racialized minorities. As the authors of "Will the Circle Be Unbroken?" point out, however, governments have been attracted to restorative justice for cost-cutting reasons as well. A burning question, therefore, is whether restorative justice works.