Current issues in Social Work Theory

São aqui analisados os discursos sobre as tendências gerais na teoria de Serviço Social. Estes discursos sobre o papel do Serviço Social são tratados no contexto da sociedade, bem como do cliente -assistente sócial -agência. A teoria da prática representa um discurso entre as perspectivas de Serviço Social nos seus aspectos transformacionais, terapêuticos e de ordem social. São também abordadas as suas várias combinações e interacções em todo o tipo de prática e organização de Serviço Social. O discurso sobre a eficácia baseia¬se em estudos comprovados da construção social, potenciação (empowerment), e realismo crítico ainda polémico. A prática reflectiva e crítica constitui os modelos actuais que interligam a teoria e a prática.

A Feedback Learning and Mental Models Perspective on Strategic Decision Making

This study aims to be a contribution to a theoretical model that explains the effectiveness of the learning and decision-making processes by means of a feedback and mental models perspective. With appropriate mental models, managers should be able to improve their capacity to deal with dynamically complex contexts, in order to achieve long-term success. We present a set of hypotheses about the influence of feedback information and systems thinking facilitation on mental models and management performance. We explore, under controlled conditions, the role of mental models in terms of structure and behaviour. A test based on a simulation experiment with a system dynamics model was performed. Three out of the four hypotheses were confirmed. Causal diagramming positively influences mental model structure similarity, mental model structure similarity positively influences mental model behaviour similarity, and mental model behaviour similarity positively influences the quality of the decision.

A Feedback Learning and Mental Models Perspective on Strategic Decision Making

This study aims to be a contribution to a theoretical model that explains the effectiveness of the learning and decision-making processes by means of a feedback and mental models perspective. With appropriate mental models, managers should be able to improve their capacity to deal with dynamically complex contexts, in order to achieve long-term success. We present a set of hypotheses about the influence of feedback information and systems thinking facilitation on mental models and management performance. We explore, under controlled conditions, the role of mental models in terms of structure and behaviour. A test based on a simulation experiment with a system dynamics model was performed. Three out of the four hypotheses were confirmed. Causal diagramming positively influences mental model structure similarity, mental model structure similarity positively influences mental model behaviour similarity, and mental model behaviour similarity positively influences the quality of the decision

Kuailous ou Po tau ya : imagens no feminino sobre os portugueses em Macau

Tendo Macau por contexto, quinze anos após a transferência da sua administração para a República Popular da China e cinco séculos de presença portuguesa, o estudo efetua uma abordagem às representações e estereótipos sociais dos portugueses, a partir de um inquérito a cento e setenta e cinco mulheres chinesas desta Região Administrativa Especial (RAEM). Tendo como marcos conceptuais a Teoria das Representações Sociais, de Moscovici, e a Teoria da Identidade Social, de Tajfel, o estudo procura explicitar os saberes sociais construídos por esse grupo de referência, determinantes na forma como se processa a comunicação e a interação grupal com portugueses e âncora para a construção de estereótipos com os quais esses processos são simplificados, mas também enviesados. Antevendo-se, num horizonte não muito longínquo, decisões quanto à manutenção do princípio “um país, dois sistemas”, que viabiliza a preservação de marcas portuguesas (como a língua) e uma abertura especial à presença de portugueses em Macau, a compreensão das imagens e metáforas sobre esta comunidade constitui estratégia relevante para a perspetivação, no presente como no futuro, das relações intergrupais que a envolvem. O estudo conclui que as representações sobre os portugueses são, no essencial, de pendor positivo e exibem uma abertura à proximidade social e à participação desta comunidade nas dinâmicas sociais da RAEM. Mas assinala também áreas de potencial maior conflitualidade na defesa, pelo endogrupo, de áreas vitais de afirmação dessa nova ordem social pós- transferência.

The portuguese insurance industry: basis for strategic process decision

Nowadays, the Portuguese insurance industry operates in a market with a much more aggressive structure than a few decades ago. Markets and the economy have become globalised since the last decade of the 20th century. Market forces have gradually shifted – power is now mainly on the demand side. In order to meet the new requirements, the insurance industry must develop a strong strategic ability to respond to constant changes of the new international economic order.One of the basic aspects of this strategic development will focus on the ability to predict the future. We introduce the subject by briefly describing the sector, its organisational structure in the Portuguese market, and challenges arising from the development of the European Union. We then analyse the economic and financial structure of the sector. From this point of view, we aim at the possibility of designing models that could explain the demand for insurance, claims and technical reserves evolution. Such models, (even if based on the past), would resolve, at least partly, one of the greatest difficulties experienced by insurance companies when estimating the budget. Thus, we examine the existence of variables that explain the previous points, which are capable of forming a basis for designing models that are simple but efficient, and can be used for strategic planning.

(Virtual) Agents for running electricity markets

This paper describes a multi-agent based simulation (MABS) framework to construct an artificial electric power market populated with learning agents. The artificial market, named TEMMAS (The Electricity Market Multi-Agent Simulator), explores the integration of two design constructs: (i) the specification of the environmental physical market properties and (ii) the specification of the decision-making (deliberative) and reactive agents. TEMMAS is materialized in an experimental setup involving distinct power generator companies that operate in the market and search for the trading strategies that best exploit their generating units' resources. The experimental results show a coherent market behavior that emerges from the overall simulated environment.

Risk Aversion in a Mixed-Integer Nonlinear Approach to Support Decision-Making for a Hydro Power Producer

In this paper, a mixed-integer nonlinear approach is proposed to support decision-making for a hydro power producer, considering a head-dependent hydro chain. The aim is to maximize the profit of the hydro power producer from selling energy into the electric market. As a new contribution to earlier studies, a risk aversion criterion is taken into account, as well as head-dependency. The volatility of the expected profit is limited through the conditional value-at-risk (CVaR). The proposed approach has been applied successfully to solve a case study based on one of the main Portuguese cascaded hydro systems.

A hybrid approach to multi-agent decision-making

In the aftermath of a large-scale disaster, agents' decisions derive from self-interested (e.g. survival), common-good (e.g. victims' rescue) and teamwork (e.g. fire extinction) motivations. However, current decision-theoretic models are either purely individual or purely collective and find it difficult to deal with motivational attitudes; on the other hand, mental-state based models find it difficult to deal with uncertainty. We propose a hybrid, CvI-JI, approach that combines: i) collective 'versus' individual (CvI) decisions, founded on the Markov decision process (MDP) quantitative evaluation of joint-actions, and ii)joint-intentions (JI) formulation of teamwork, founded on the belief-desire-intention (BDI) architecture of general mental-state based reasoning. The CvI-JI evaluation explores the performance's improvement

Extreme Value Theory versus traditional GARCH approaches applied to financial data: a comparative evaluation

Although stock prices fluctuate, the variations are relatively small and are frequently assumed to be normal distributed on a large time scale. But sometimes these fluctuations can become determinant, especially when unforeseen large drops in asset prices are observed that could result in huge losses or even in market crashes. The evidence shows that these events happen far more often than would be expected under the generalized assumption of normal distributed financial returns. Thus it is crucial to properly model the distribution tails so as to be able to predict the frequency and magnitude of extreme stock price returns. In this paper we follow the approach suggested by McNeil and Frey (2000) and combine the GARCH-type models with the Extreme Value Theory (EVT) to estimate the tails of three financial index returns DJI,FTSE 100 and NIKKEI 225 representing three important financial areas in the world. Our results indicate that EVT-based conditional quantile estimates are much more accurate than those from conventional AR-GARCH models assuming normal or Student’s t-distribution innovations when doing out-of-sample estimation (within the insample estimation, this is so for the right tail of the distribution of returns).

Modalidades síncronas e assíncronas no ensino da radiologia do sistema nervoso: estilos e resultados de aprendizagem

Lidar com as problemáticas da saúde, implica um domínio dos processos cognitivos (raciocínio, resolução de problemas e tomada de decisão) e de desempenhos práticos, o que obriga a afectação de um conjunto de atitudes e comportamentos específicos. Este estudo, implementou e avaliou o impacto de experiências pedagógicas desenvolvidas com os estudantes da unidade curricular Radiologia do Sistema Nervoso (RSN) da Escola Superior de Tecnologia da Saúde de Lisboa (ESTeSL). Aplicaram-se metodologias de ensino mistas (presenciais e virtuais) utilizadas na leccionação teórica e prática no ano curricular 2008/2009. Para a avaliação do perfil de aprendizagem dos estudantes foi aplicado o método de Honey & Munford e para a avaliação e monitorização dos conhecimentos aplicaram-se check list baseadas nos conteúdos programáticos. A monitorização das ferramentas da plataforma moodle complementaram a restante informação. Verificou-se uma progressão de aprendizagem positiva para um grupo de estudantes maioritariamente do estilo reflexivo (média=10,6 estudantes). As conclusões apontaram para um impacto positivo quanto à aplicação das metodologias híbridas com maior índice de sucesso para a metodologia assíncrona. Verificou-se também mais flexibilidade no acesso aos conteúdos porém com algumas limitações tais como residência inicial por parte dos estudantes, maior carga de trabalho para os docentes, falta de terminais para acesso à plataforma e pouca experiência de todos os envolvidos no domínio e manipulação da plataforma. ABSTRACT - This study focused on the role of cognitive processes (reasoning, problem solving and decision making) and performance practice in the formation of attitudes and behaviours relating to health issues. It was conducted to evaluate the effects of pedagogical experiences on students who participated in the course in radiography in the Nervous System Imaging Unit (RSN) of the Lisbon Health School of Technology. Mixed (face-to-face and virtual) teaching methodologies were used in theory and practice sessions. Honey and Munford’s method was used to evaluate the learning profile of students. To monitor and evaluate students’ knowledge acquisition, check lists based on program topics were applied. Other information was supplied through the learning platform of Moodle. The student group with mostly a reflective learning style increased their knowledge. The asynchronous method was shown to produce a higher success rate and more flexibility in accessing content but also registered some limitations such as resistance by students, increased workload for teachers, lack of access to the platform and inexperience of all involved in handling the platform.

O risco do custo e do tempo no escanamento de projetos

Dissertação apresentada ao Instituto Politécnico do Porto para obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Logística Orientada por: Prof. Dr. Pedro Godinho

Construção de vantagens competitivas nas estratégias de internacionalização: estudo do caso da EFACEC

Dissertação apresentada ao Instituto Politécnico do Porto para obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Gestão das Organizações, Ramo de Gestão de Empresas Orientador: Professor Doutor Orlando Manuel Martins Marques de Lima Rua

Intelligent decision making in electricity markets: simulated annealing Q-Learning

Electricity markets are complex environments, involving a large number of different entities, playing in a dynamic scene to obtain the best advantages and profits. MASCEM is a multi-agent electricity market simulator to model market players and simulate their operation in the market. Market players are entities with specific characteristics and objectives, making their decisions and interacting with other players. MASCEM is integrated with ALBidS, a system that provides several dynamic strategies for agents’ behavior. This paper presents a method that aims at enhancing ALBidS competence in endowing market players with adequate strategic bidding capabilities, allowing them to obtain the higher possible gains out of the market. This method uses a reinforcement learning algorithm to learn from experience how to choose the best from a set of possible actions. These actions are defined accordingly to the most probable points of bidding success. With the purpose of accelerating the convergence process, a simulated annealing based algorithm is included.