Entrepreneurial failure and economic crisis: an historical perspective

This chapter analyses the major UK economic crises that have occurred since the speculative bubbles of the seventeenth century. It integrates insights from economic history and business history to analyse both the general economic conditions and the specific business and financial practices that led to these crises. The analysis suggests a significant reinterpretation of the evidence – one that questions economists’ conventional views.

The king's champion: re-enacting Arthurian romance at the English coronation banquet

Recent scholarship has emphasised the extent to which historical events are reflected in medieval romance. This paper seeks to draw attention to an instance where that relationship appears to have been inverted and a romance motif was carefully recreated at a particularly important event in the historical world. From the fourteenth century onwards, a mounted knight ceremonially rode into the English coronation banquet and issued a challenge to all assembled. The visual detail of the ritual strikingly echoes that of the romance motif of the “intruder at the feast”. This motif crops up in numerous romances, and is particularly associated with Arthurian narratives where it usually serves as a catalyst for adventure, providing the court and the king with an opportunity to justify their authority and reputation. This paper analyses the precise nature of the historical ritual and explores how the romance resonances of the ceremony at the coronation feast could be used to underpin political authority and courtly identity. In doing so, it seeks to underscore the centrality of Arthurian romance to English monarchical self-imagining and the symbolic power which could be ascribed to the genre's themes and conventions.

Otherworlds: fantasy and history in medieval literature

This book offers a new perspective on the otherworlds of medieval literature. These fantastical realms are among the most memorable places in medieval writing, by turns beautiful and monstrous, alluring and terrifying. Passing over a river or sea, or entering into a hollow hill, heroes come upon strange and magical realms. These places are often very beautiful, filled with sweet music and adorned with precious stones and rich materials. There is often no darkness, time may pass at a different pace, and the people who dwell there are usually supernatural. Sometimes such a place is exactly what it appears to be-the land of heart's desire-but, the otherworld can also have a sinister side, trapping humans and keeping them there against their will. Otherworlds: Fantasy and History in Medieval Literature takes a fresh look at how medieval writers understood these places and why they found them so compelling. It focuses on texts from England, but places this material in the broader context of literary production in medieval Britain and Ireland. The narratives examined in this book tell a rather surprising story about medieval notions of these fantastical places. Otherworlds are actually a lot less 'other' than they might initially seem. Authors often use the idea of the otherworld to comment on very serious topics. It is not unusual for otherworld depictions to address political issues in the historical world. Most intriguing of all are those texts where locations in the real world are re-imagined as otherworlds. The regions on which this book focuses, Britain, Ireland and the surrounding islands, prove particularly susceptible to this characterization.

A new pattern for historical geography: working with enthusiast communities and public history

This paper argues for the adoption of participatory approaches in historical geography, drawing on the author's experience in working with enthusiast communities in the UK in the context of collaborative research with the Science Museum and ideas of public history and geography.

The Climate-system Historical Forecast Project: do stratosphere-resolving models make better seasonal climate predictions in boreal winter?

Using an international, multi-model suite of historical forecasts from the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) Climate-system Historical Forecast Project (CHFP), we compare the seasonal prediction skill in boreal wintertime between models that resolve the stratosphere and its dynamics (“high-top”) and models that do not (“low-top”). We evaluate hindcasts that are initialized in November, and examine the model biases in the stratosphere and how they relate to boreal wintertime (Dec-Mar) seasonal forecast skill. We are unable to detect more skill in the high-top ensemble-mean than the low-top ensemble-mean in forecasting the wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation, but model performance varies widely. Increasing the ensemble size clearly increases the skill for a given model. We then examine two major processes involving stratosphere-troposphere interactions (the El Niño-Southern Oscillation/ENSO and the Quasi-biennial Oscillation/QBO) and how they relate to predictive skill on intra-seasonal to seasonal timescales, particularly over the North Atlantic and Eurasia regions. High-top models tend to have a more realistic stratospheric response to El Niño and the QBO compared to low-top models. Enhanced conditional wintertime skill over high-latitudes and the North Atlantic region during winters with El Niño conditions suggests a possible role for a stratospheric pathway.

La Niña 2016/2017: historical impact analysis

El Niño conditions developed in the tropical Pacific during the latter half of 2015, peaking in December 2015 as one of the strongest El Niño events on record, comparable with the 1997-98 “El Niño of the century”. Conditions in the tropical Pacific are forecast to return to normal over the coming months, with the potential to transition into La Niña conditions during 2016-17. If this was to occur it would act as a further strong perturbation, or ‘kick’, to the climate system and lead to further significant socio-economic impacts affecting many sectors such as infrastructure, agriculture, health and energy. This report analyses La Niña events over the last 37 years of the satellite era (1979-present) and aims to identify regions where there is an increased likelihood of impacts occurring. It is important to note that this analysis is based on past analogous events and is not a prediction for this year. No two La Niña events will be the same – the timing and magnitude of events differs considerably. More importantly, no two La Niña events lead to the same impacts – other local physical and social factors come into play. Therefore, the exact timings, locations and magnitudes of impacts should be interpreted with caution and this should be accounted for in any preparedness measures that are taken. This report has been produced for Evidence on Demand with the assistance of the UK Department for International Development (DFID) contracted through the Climate, Environment, Infrastructure and Livelihoods Professional Evidence and Applied Knowledge Services (CEIL PEAKS) programme, jointly managed by DAI (which incorporates HTSPE Limited) and IMC Worldwide Limited.

Encouraging use of subordination in children’s narratives: a classroom-based priming study

This study investigated the long-term effect of classroom-based input manipulation on children’s use of subordination in a story re-telling task; it also explored the role of receptive vocabulary skills and expressive grammatical abilities in predicting the likelihood of priming. During a two-week priming phase, 47 monolingual English-speaking five- year-olds heard 10 stories, one a day, that either contained a high proportion of subordinate clauses (subordination condition) or a high proportion of coordi- nate clauses (coordination condition). Post-intervention, there was a significant group difference in likelihood of subordinate use which persisted ten weeks after the priming. Neither expressive grammatical nor receptive vocabulary skills were positively correlated with the likelihood of subordinate use. These findings show that input manipulation can have a facilitative effect on the use of complex syntax over several weeks in a realistic communicative task.

Short report: Historical analysis of a near disaster: Anopheles gambiae in Brazil

Attributed to human-mediated dispersal, a species of the Anopheles gambiae complex invaded northeastern Brazil in 1930. This event is considered unique among the intercontinental introductions of disease vectors and the most serious one: ""Few threats to the future health of the Americas have equalled that inherent in the invasion of Brazil, in 1930, by Anopheles gambiae."" Because it was only in the 1960s that An. gambiae was recognized as a species complex now including seven species, the precise species identity of the Brazilian invader remains a mystery. Here we used historical DNA analysis of museum specimens, collected at the time of invasion from Brazil, and aimed at the identification of the Brazilian invader. Our results identify the arid-adapted Anopheles arabiensis as being the actual invading species. Establishing the identity of the species, in addition to being of intrinsic historical interest, can inform future threats of this sort especially in a changing environment. Furthermore, these results highlight the potential danger of human-mediated range expansions of insect disease vectors and the importance of museum collections in retrieving historical information.

Biogeography of Glandulocaudinae (Teleostei : Characiformes : Characidae) revisited: phylogenetic patterns, historical geology and genetic connectivity

The biogeography of the Glandulocaudinae ( former Glandulocaudini) is reviewed. The major pattern of diversification presented by this group of freshwater fishes can be clearly associated to the main aspects of the tectonic evolution of the southern portion of the Cis-Andean South American Platform. The phylogenetic relationships within the group suggest that the clade represented by Lophiobrycon is the sister-group of the more derived clade represented by the genus Glandulocauda and Mimagoniates. Lophiobrycon and Glandulocauda occur in areas of the ancient crystalline shield of southeastern Brazil and their present allopatric distribution is probably due to relict survival and tectonic vicariant events. Populations of Glandulocauda melanogenys are found in contiguous drainages in presently isolated upper parts of the Tiete, Guaratuba, Itatinga, and Ribeira de Iguape basins and this pattern of distribution is probably the result of river capture caused by tectonic processes that affected a large area in eastern and southeastern Brazil. The species of Mimagoniates are predominantly distributed along the eastern and southeastern coastal areas, but M. microlepis is additionally found in the rio Iguacu and Tibagi basins. Mimagoniates barberi occurs in both SW margin of the upper rio Parana basin and the lower Paraguay and Mimagoniates sp. occurs in the upper Paraguay river basin. Tectonic activations of the Continental Rift of Southeastern Brazil along the eastern margin of the Upper Parana basin promoted population fragmentation responsible of the present day distribution presented by Glandulocauda melanogenys. We hypothesize that occurrence of Mimagoniates along the lowland area around the Parana basin was due to a single or a multiple fragmentation of populations along the W-SW border of the upper Parana Basin, probably due to the major tectonic origin of the Chaco-Pantanal wetland foreland basins since the Miocene as well as Cenozoic tectonic activity along the borders of the upper Parana basin, such as in the eastern Paraguay, in the Asuncion Rift. Distributional pattern of Mimagoniates suggests that its initial diversification may be related to the tectonic evolution of the Chaco-Pantanal foreland basin system and a minimum age of 2.5 M.Y are proposed for this monophyletic group. Previous hypotheses on sea level fluctuations of the late Quaternary as being the main causal mechanism promoting cladogenesis and speciation of the group are critically reviewed. Phylogeographic studies based on molecular data indicate significant differences among the isolated populations of M. microlepis. These findings suggest that a much longer period of time and a paleogeographic landscape configuration of the Brazilian southeastern coastal region explain the present observed phylogenetic and biogeographic patterns.

Patterns of diversification in two species of short-tailed bats (Carollia Gray, 1838): the effects of historical fragmentation of Brazilian rainforests

The small-sized frugivorous bat Carollia perspicillata is an understory specialist and occurs in a wide range of lowland habitats, tending to be more common in tropical dry or moist forests of South and Central America. Its sister species, Carollia brevicauda, occurs almost exclusively in the Amazon rainforest. A recent phylogeographic study proposed a hypothesis of origin and subsequent diversification for C. perspicillata along the Atlantic coastal forest of Brazil. Additionally, it also found two allopatric clades for C. brevicauda separated by the Amazon Basin. We used cytochrome b gene sequences and a more extensive sampling to test hypotheses related to the origin and diversification of C. perspicillata plus C. brevicauda clade in South America. The results obtained indicate that there are two sympatric evolutionary lineages within each species. In C. perspicillata, one lineage is limited to the Southern Atlantic Forest, whereas the other is widely distributed. Coalescent analysis points to a simultaneous origin for C. perspicillata and C. brevicauda, although no place for the diversification of each species can be firmly suggested. The phylogeographic pattern shown by C. perspicillata is also congruent with the Pleistocene refugia hypothesis as a likely vicariant phenomenon shaping the present distribution of its intraspecific lineages. (C) 2011 The Linnean Society of London, Biological Journal of the Linnean Society, 2011, 102, 527-539.

Historical carbon budget of the brazilian ethanol program

This work models the carbon neutralization capacity of Brazil`s ethanol program since 1975. In addition to biofuel, we also assessed the mitigation potential of other energy products, such as, bioelectricity, and CO(2) emissions captured during fermentation of sugar cane`s juice. Finally, we projected the neutralization capacity of sugar cane`s bio-energy system over the next 32 years. The balance between several carbon stocks and flows was considered in the model, including the effects of land-use change. Our results show that the neutralization of the carbon released due to land-use change was attained only in 1992, and the maximum mitigation potential of the sugar cane sector was 128 tonnes Of CO(2) per ha in 2006. An ideal reconstitution of the deployment of the sugar cane sector, including the full exploitation of bio-electricity`s potential, plus the capture Of CO(2) released during fermentation, shows that the neutralization of land-use change emissions would have been achieved in 1988, and its mitigation potential would have been 390 tCO(2)/ha. Finally, forecasts of the sector up to 2039 shows that the mitigation potential in 2039 corresponds to 836 tCO(2)/ha, which corresponds to 5.51 kg Of CO(2) per liter of ethanol produced, or 55% above the negative emission level. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.