The solar influence on the probability of relatively cold UK winters in the future

Recent research has suggested that relatively cold UK winters are more common when solar activity is low (Lockwood et al 2010 Environ. Res. Lett. 5 024001). Solar activity during the current sunspot minimum has fallen to levels unknown since the start of the 20th century (Lockwood 2010 Proc. R. Soc. A 466 303–29) and records of past solar variations inferred from cosmogenic isotopes (Abreu et al 2008 Geophys. Res. Lett. 35 L20109) and geomagnetic activity data (Lockwood et al 2009 Astrophys. J. 700 937–44) suggest that the current grand solar maximum is coming to an end and hence that solar activity can be expected to continue to decline. Combining cosmogenic isotope data with the long record of temperatures measured in central England, we estimate how solar change could influence the probability in the future of further UK winters that are cold, relative to the hemispheric mean temperature, if all other factors remain constant. Global warming is taken into account only through the detrending using mean hemispheric temperatures. We show that some predictive skill may be obtained by including the solar effect.

Ventilation effects on humidity measurements in thermometer screens

Relative humidity (RH) measurements, as derived from wet-bulb and dry-bulb thermometers operated as a psychrometer within a thermometer screen, have limited accuracy because of natural ventilation variations. Standard RH calculations generally assume a fixed screen psychrometer coefficient, but this is too small during poor ventilation. By comparing a reference humidity probe—exposed within a screen containing a psychrometer—with wind-speed measurements under controlled conditions, a wind-speed correction for the screen psychrometer coefficient has been derived and applicable when 2-metre wind speeds fall below 3 ms–1. Applying this to hourly-averaged data reduced the mean moist RH bias of the psychrometer (over the reference probe) from 1.2% to 0.4%, and reduced the inter-quartile range of the RH differences from 2.0% to 0.8%. This correction is particularly amenable to automatic measurement systems.

Cloud base height and cosmic rays

Cosmic rays modify current flow in the global atmospheric electrical circuit. Charging at horizontal layer cloud edges has been observed to be consistent with global circuit vertical current flow through the cloud, which can modify the properties of small and pure water droplets. Studies have been hampered by the absence of cloud edge observations, hence cloud base height information is investigated here. Cloud base height measured at the Lerwick Observatory, Shetland, UK, is analysed using threshold tests and spectral analysis. The cloud base height distributions for low cloud (cloud base less than 800 m) are found to vary with cosmic ray conditions. Further, 27 day and 1.68 year periodicities characteristic of cosmic ray variations are present, weakly, in the cloud base height data of stratiform clouds, when such periodicities are present in neutron monitor cosmic ray data. These features support the idea of propagation of heliospheric variability into layer clouds, through the global atmospheric electric circuit.

The cloud chamber and CTR Wilson’s legacy to atmospheric science

2011 is the centenary year of the short paper (Wilson,1911) first describing the cloud chamber, the device for visualising high-energy charged particles which earned the Scottish physicist Charles Thomas Rees (‘CTR’) Wilson the 1927 Nobel Prize for physics. His many achievements in atmospheric science, some of which have current relevance, are briefly reviewed here. CTR Wilson’s lifetime of scientific research work was principally in atmospheric electricity at the Cavendish Laboratory, Cambridge; he was Reader in Electrical Meteorology from 1918 and Jacksonian Professor from 1925 to 1935. However, he is immortalised in physics for his invention of the cloud chamber, because of its great significance as an early visualisation tool for particles such as cosmic rays1 (Galison, 1997). Sir Lawrence Bragg summarised its importance: