Eliciting Expert Knowledge in Conservation Science

Expert knowledge is used widely in the science and practice of conservation because of the complexity of problems, relative lack of data, and the imminent nature of many conservation decisions. Expert knowledge is substantive information on a particular topic that is not widely known by others. An expert is someone who holds this knowledge and who is often deferred to in its interpretation. We refer to predictions by experts of what may happen in a particular context as expert judgments. In general, an expert-elicitation approach consists of five steps: deciding how information will be used, determining what to elicit, designing the elicitation process, performing the elicitation, and translating the elicited information into quantitative statements that can be used in a model or directly to make decisions. This last step is known as encoding. Some of the considerations in eliciting expert knowledge include determining how to work with multiple experts and how to combine multiple judgments, minimizing bias in the elicited information, and verifying the accuracy of expert information. We highlight structured elicitation techniques that, if adopted, will improve the accuracy and information content of expert judgment and ensure uncertainty is captured accurately. We suggest four aspects of an expert elicitation exercise be examined to determine its comprehensiveness and effectiveness: study design and context, elicitation design, elicitation method, and elicitation output. Just as the reliability of empirical data depends on the rigor with which it was acquired so too does that of expert knowledge.

Delta opioid-receptor function in the dorsal striatum plays a role in high levels of ethanol consumption in rats

Binge-like patterns of excessive drinking during young adulthood increase the propensity for alcohol use disorders (AUDs) later in adult life; however, the mechanisms that drive this are not completely understood. Previous studies showed that the δ-opioid peptide receptor (DOP-R) is dynamically regulated by exposure to ethanol and that the DOP-R plays a role in ethanol-mediated behaviors. The aim of this study was to determine the role of the DOP-R in high ethanol consumption from young adulthood through to late adulthood by measuring DOP-R-mediated [(35)S]GTPγS binding in brain membranes and DOP-R-mediated analgesia using a rat model of high ethanol consumption in Long Evans rats. We show that DOP-R activity in the dorsal striatum and DOP-R-mediated analgesia changes during development, being highest during early adulthood and reduced in late adulthood. Intermittent access to ethanol but not continuous ethanol or water from young adulthood leads to an increase in DOP-R activity in the dorsal striatum and DOP-R-mediated analgesia into late adulthood. Multiple microinfusions of naltrindole into the dorsal striatum or multiple systemic administration of naltrindole reduces ethanol consumption, and following termination of treatment, DOP-R activity in the dorsal striatum is attenuated. These findings suggest that DOP-R activity in the dorsal striatum plays a role in high levels of ethanol consumption and suggest that targeting the DOP-R is an alternative strategy for the treatment of AUDs.

Whole-body substrate metabolism is associated with disease severity in patients with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease

Objectives In non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD), hepatic steatosis is intricately linked with a number of metabolic alterations. We studied substrate utilisation in NAFLD during basal, insulin-stimulated and exercise conditions, and correlated these outcomes with disease severity. Methods 20 patients with NAFLD (mean±SD body mass index (BMI) 34.1±6.7 kg/m2) and 15 healthy controls (BMI 23.4±2.7 kg/m2) were assessed. Respiratory quotient (RQ), whole-body fat (Fatox) and carbohydrate (CHOox) oxidation rates were determined by indirect calorimetry in three conditions: basal (resting and fasted), insulin-stimulated (hyperinsulinaemic–euglycaemic clamp) and exercise (cycling at an intensity to elicit maximal Fatox). Severity of disease and steatosis were determined by liver histology, hepatic Fatox from plasma β-hydroxybutyrate concentrations, aerobic fitness expressed as , and visceral adipose tissue (VAT) measured by computed tomography. Results Within the overweight/obese NAFLD cohort, basal RQ correlated positively with steatosis (r=0.57, p=0.01) and was higher (indicating smaller contribution of Fatox to energy expenditure) in patients with NAFLD activity score (NAS) ≥5 vs <5 (p=0.008). Both results were independent of VAT, % body fat and BMI. Compared with the lean control group, patients with NAFLD had lower basal whole-body Fatox (1.2±0.3 vs 1.5±0.4 mg/kgFFM/min, p=0.024) and lower basal hepatic Fatox (ie, β-hydroxybutyrate, p=0.004). During exercise, they achieved lower maximal Fatox (2.5±1.4 vs. 5.8±3.7 mg/kgFFM/min, p=0.002) and lower (p<0.001) than controls. Fatox during exercise was not associated with disease severity (p=0.79). Conclusions Overweight/obese patients with NAFLD had reduced hepatic Fatox and reduced whole-body Fatox under basal and exercise conditions. There was an inverse relationship between ability to oxidise fat in basal conditions and histological features of NAFLD including severity of steatosis and NAS

The effect of a high fat meal on postprandial arterial stiffness in men with obesity and type 2 diabetes

Context: Postprandial dysmetabolism is emerging as an important cardiovascular risk factor. Augmentation index (AIx) is a measure of systemic arterial stiffness and independently predicts cardiovascular outcome. Objective: The objective of this study was to assess the effect of a standardized high-fat meal on metabolic parameters and AIx in 1) lean, 2) obese nondiabetic, and 3) subjects with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). Design and Setting: Male subjects (lean, n = 8; obese, n = 10; and T2DM, n = 10) were studied for 6 h after a high-fat meal and water control. Glucose, insulin, triglycerides, and AIx (radial applanation tonometry) were measured serially to determine the incremental area under the curve (iAUC). Results: AIx decreased in all three groups after a high-fat meal. A greater overall postprandial reduction in AIx was seen in lean and T2DM compared with obese subjects (iAUC, 2251 +/- 1204, 2764 +/- 1102, and 1187 +/- 429% . min, respectively; P < 0.05). The time to return to baseline AIx was significantly delayed in subjects with T2DM (297 +/- 68 min) compared with lean subjects (161 +/- 88 min; P < 0.05). There was a significant correlation between iAUC AIx and iAUC triglycerides (r = 0.50; P < 0.05). Conclusions: Obesity is associated with an attenuated overall postprandial decrease in AIx. Subjects with T2DM have a preserved, but significantly prolonged, reduction in AIx after a high-fat meal. The correlation between AIx and triglycerides suggests that postprandial dysmetabolism may impact on vascular dynamics. The markedly different response observed in the obese subjects compared with those with T2DM was unexpected and warrants additional evaluation.

A visual language for the collaborative visualization of integrated conceptual models in product development scenarios

In various industrial and scientific fields, conceptual models are derived from real world problem spaces to understand and communicate containing entities and coherencies. Abstracted models mirror the common understanding and information demand of engineers, who apply conceptual models for performing their daily tasks. However, most standardized models in Process Management, Product Lifecycle Management and Enterprise Resource Planning lack of a scientific foundation for their notation. In collaboration scenarios with stakeholders from several disciplines, tailored conceptual models complicate communication processes, as a common understanding is not shared or implemented in specific models. To support direct communication between experts from several disciplines, a visual language is developed which allows a common visualization of discipline-specific conceptual models. For visual discrimination and to overcome visual complexity issues, conceptual models are arranged in a three-dimensional space. The visual language introduced here follows and extends established principles of Visual Language science.

Bone tissue engineering : from bench to bedside - Review article

The drive to develop bone grafts for the filling of major gaps in the skeletal structure has led to a major research thrust towards developing biomaterials for bone engineering. Unfortunately, from a clinical perspective, the promise of bone tissue engineering which was so vibrant a decade ago has so far failed to deliver the anticipated results of becoming a routine therapeutic application in reconstructive surgery. Here we describe the analysis of long-term bone regeneration studies in preclinical animal models, exploiting methods of micro- and nano analysis of biodegradable composite scaffolds.

Adaptive sizing of populations and number of islands in distributed genetic algorithms

Deciding the appropriate population size and number of is- lands for distributed island-model genetic algorithms is often critical to the algorithm’s success. This paper outlines a method that automatically searches for good combinations of island population sizes and the number of islands. The method is based on a race between competing parameter sets, and collaborative seeding of new parameter sets. This method is applicable to any problem, and makes distributed genetic algorithms easier to use by reducing the number of user-set parameters. The experimental results show that the proposed method robustly and reliably finds population and islands settings that are comparable to those found with traditional trial-and-error approaches.

Overdue choices : how information and role in decision-making influence women's preferences for induction for prolonged pregnancy

Background: Enabling women to make informed decisions is a crucial component of consumer-focused maternity care. Current evidence suggests that health care practitioners’ communication of care options may not facilitate patient involvement in decision-making. The aim of this study was to investigate the effect of specific variations in health caregiver communication on women’s preferences for induction of labor for prolonged pregnancy. Methods: A convenience sample of 595 female participants read a hypothetical scenario in which an obstetrician discusses induction of labor with a pregnant woman. Information provided on induction and the degree of encouragement for the woman’s involvement in decision-making was manipulated to create four experimental conditions. Participants indicated preference with respect to induction, their perceptions of the quality of information received, and other potential moderating factors. Results: Participants who received information that was directive in favor of medical intervention were significantly more likely to prefer induction than those given nondirective information. No effect of level of involvement in decision-making was found. Participants’ general trust in doctors moderated the relationship between health caregiver communication and preferences for induction, such that the influence of information provided on preferences for induction differed across levels of involvement in decision-making for women with a low trust in doctors, but not for those with high trust. Many women were not aware of the level of information required to make an informed decision. Conclusions: Our findings highlight the potential value of strategies such as patient decision aids and health care professional education to improve the quality of information available to women and their capacity for informed decision-making during pregnancy and birth. (BIRTH 39:3 September 2012)

Effects of rice husk biochar and sugar-mill by-products on methane consumption from two different soils

Methane (CH4) is an important greenhouse gas with a global warming potential (GWP) 25 times greater than carbon dioxide (CO2) that can be produced or consumed in soils depending on environmental conditions and other factors. Biochar application to soils has been shown to reduce CH4 emissions and to increase CH4 consumption. However, the effects of rice husk biochar (RB) have not been thoroughly investigated. Two 60-day laboratory incubation experiments were conducted to investigate the effects of amending two soil types with RB, raw mill mud (MM) and composted mill mud (CM) on soil CH4 consumption and emissions. Soil cores incubated in 1 L glass jars and gas samples were analysed for CH4 using gas chromatography. Average CH4 consumption rates varied from -0.06 to -0.68 g CH4-C( )/ha/d in sandy loam soil and -0.59 to -1.00 g CH4-C/ha/d in clay soil. Application of RB resulted in CH4 uptake of -0.52 to -0.55 g CH4-C/ha/d in sandy loam and -0.76 to -0.91 g CH4-C/ha/d in clay soil. Addition of MM showed low CH4 emissions or consumption at 60% water-filled pore space (WFPS) in both soils. However, at high water contents (>75% WFPS) the application of MM produced high rates of CH4 emissions which were significantly suppressed when RB was added. Cumulative emissions of the MM treatment produced 108.9 g CH4-C/ha at 75% WFPS and 11 459.3 g CH4-C/ha at 90% WFPS in sandy loam soil over a period of 60 days. RB can increase CH4 uptake under low soil water content (SWC) and decrease CH4 emissions under anaerobic conditions. CM expressed more potential to reduce CH4 emissions than those of MM.

Life-history constraints in grassland plant species : a growth-defence trade-off is the norm

Plant growth can be limited by resource acquisition and defence against consumers, leading to contrasting trade-off possibilities. The competition-defence hypothesis posits a trade-off between competitive ability and defence against enemies (e.g. herbivores and pathogens). The growth-defence hypothesis suggests that strong competitors for nutrients are also defended against enemies, at a cost to growth rate. We tested these hypotheses using observations of 706 plant populations of over 500 species before and following identical fertilisation and fencing treatments at 39 grassland sites worldwide. Strong positive covariance in species responses to both treatments provided support for a growth-defence trade-off: populations that increased with the removal of nutrient limitation (poor competitors) also increased following removal of consumers. This result held globally across 4 years within plant life-history groups and within the majority of individual sites. Thus, a growth-defence trade-off appears to be the norm, and mechanisms maintaining grassland biodiversity may operate within this constraint.

The GSTM1 null genotype confers an increased risk for Solar Keratosis Development in an Australian Caucasian Population

Solar keratoses affect approximately 50% of Australian Caucasians aged over 40 y. Solar keratoses can undergo malignant transformation into squamous cell carcinoma followed by possible metastasis and are risk factors for basal cell carcinoma, melanoma, and squamous cell carcinoma. The glutathione-S-transferase genes play a part in detoxification of carcinogens and mutagens, including some produced by ultraviolet radiation. This study examined the role of glutathione-S-transferase M1, T1, P1, and Z1 gene polymorphisms in susceptibility to solar keratoses development. Using DNA samples from volunteers involved in the Nambour Skin Cancer Prevention Trial, allele and genotype frequencies were determined using polymerase chain reaction and restriction enzyme digestion. No significant differences were detected in glutathione-S-transferase P1 and glutathione-S-transferase Z1 allele or genotype frequencies; however, a significant association between glutathione-S-transferase M1 genotypes and solar keratoses development was detected (p=0.003) with null individuals having an approximate 2-fold increase in risk for solar keratoses development (odds ratio: 2.1; confidence interval: 1.3-3.5) and a significantly higher increase in risk in conjunction with high outdoor exposure (odds ratio: 3.4; confidence interval: 1.9-6.3). Also, a difference in glutathione-S-transferase T1 genotype frequencies was detected (p=0.039), although considering that multiple testing was undertaken, this was found not to be significant. Fair skin and inability to tan were found to be highly significant risk factors for solar keratoses development with odds ratios of 18.5 (confidence interval: 5.7-59.9) and 7.4 (confidence interval: 2.6-21.0), respectively. Overall, glutathione-S-transferase M1 conferred a significant increase in risk of solar keratoses development, particularly in the presence of high outdoor exposure and synergistically with known phenotypic risk factors of fair skin and inability to tan.

Melanocortin-1 receptor genotype is a risk factor for basal and squamous cell carcinoma

MC1R gene variants have previously been associated with red hair and fair skin color, moreover skin ultraviolet sensitivity and a strong association with melanoma has been demonstrated for three variant alleles that are active in influencing pigmentation: Arg151Cys, Arg160Trp, and Asp294His. This study has confirmed these pigmentary associations with MC1R genotype in a collection of 220 individuals drawn from the Nambour community in Queensland, Australia, 111 of whom were at high risk and 109 at low risk of basal cell carcinoma and squamous cell carcinoma. Comparative allele frequencies for nine MC1R variants that have been reported in the Caucasian population were determined for these two groups, and an association between prevalence of basal cell carcinoma, squamous cell carcinoma, solar keratosis and the same three active MC1R variant alleles was demonstrated [odds ratio = 3.15 95% CI (1.7, 5.82)]. Three other commonly occurring variant alleles: Val60Leu, Val92Met, and Arg163Gln were identified as having a minimal impact on pigmentation phenotype as well as basal cell carcinoma and squamous cell carcinoma risk. A significant heterozygote effect was demonstrated where individuals carrying a single MC1R variant allele were more likely to have fair and sun sensitive skin as well as carriage of a solar lesion when compared with those individuals with a consensus MC1R genotype. After adjusting for the effects of pigmentation on the association between MC1R variant alleles and basal cell carcinoma and squamous cell carcinoma risk, the association persisted, confirming that presence of at least one variant allele remains informative in terms of predicting risk for developing a solar-induced skin lesion beyond that information wained through observation of pigmentation phenotype.

Regional contingencies in the relationship between aboveground biomass and litter in the world’s grasslands

Based on regional-scale studies, aboveground production and litter decomposition are thought to positively covary, because they are driven by shared biotic and climatic factors. Until now we have been unable to test whether production and decomposition are generally coupled across climatically dissimilar regions, because we lacked replicated data collected within a single vegetation type across multiple regions, obfuscating the drivers and generality of the association between production and decomposition. Furthermore, our understanding of the relationships between production and decomposition rests heavily on separate meta-analyses of each response, because no studies have simultaneously measured production and the accumulation or decomposition of litter using consistent methods at globally relevant scales. Here, we use a multi-country grassland dataset collected using a standardized protocol to show that live plant biomass (an estimate of aboveground net primary production) and litter disappearance (represented by mass loss of aboveground litter) do not strongly covary. Live biomass and litter disappearance varied at different spatial scales. There was substantial variation in live biomass among continents, sites and plots whereas among continent differences accounted for most of the variation in litter disappearance rates. Although there were strong associations among aboveground biomass, litter disappearance and climatic factors in some regions (e.g. U.S. Great Plains), these relationships were inconsistent within and among the regions represented by this study. These results highlight the importance of replication among regions and continents when characterizing the correlations between ecosystem processes and interpreting their global-scale implications for carbon flux. We must exercise caution in parameterizing litter decomposition and aboveground production in future regional and global carbon models as their relationship is complex.

Effect of heat treatment and bend strain on the Jc of Ag-sheathed Bi-2212 tape

Bi-2212 tapes were fabricated using a powder-in-tube method and their superconducting properties were measured as a function of heat treatment. The tapes were heated to temperature, T1 (884-915 °C), and kept at that temperature for 20 min to induce partial (incongruent) melting. The samples were cooled to T2 with a ramp rate of 120 °C h-1 and then slowly cooled to T3 with a cooling rate, R2, and from T3 to T4 with a cooling rate, R3. The tapes were kept at the temperature T4 for P1 hours and then cooled to room temperature. Both R1 and R2 were chosen between 2 and 8 °C h-1. It was found that the structure and Jc of the tapes depend on the sintering conditions, i.e. T1-4, R1-3 and P1. The highest Jc of 5800 Å cm-2 was obtained at 77 K in a self-field with heat treatment where T1 = 894 and 899 °C, R1 = R2 = 5 °C h-1 and P1 = 6 h were employed. When 0.7% of bend strain, which is equivalent to a bend radius of 5 mm, was applied to the tape, 80% of the initial Jc was sustained.