Adaptive MCMC methods with applications in environmental and geophysical models

This work presents new, efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation methods for statistical analysis in various modelling applications. When using MCMC methods, the model is simulated repeatedly to explore the probability distribution describing the uncertainties in model parameters and predictions. In adaptive MCMC methods based on the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm, the proposal distribution needed by the algorithm learns from the target distribution as the simulation proceeds. Adaptive MCMC methods have been subject of intensive research lately, as they open a way for essentially easier use of the methodology. The lack of user-friendly computer programs has been a main obstacle for wider acceptance of the methods. This work provides two new adaptive MCMC methods: DRAM and AARJ. The DRAM method has been built especially to work in high dimensional and non-linear problems. The AARJ method is an extension to DRAM for model selection problems, where the mathematical formulation of the model is uncertain and we want simultaneously to fit several different models to the same observations. The methods were developed while keeping in mind the needs of modelling applications typical in environmental sciences. The development work has been pursued while working with several application projects. The applications presented in this work are: a winter time oxygen concentration model for Lake Tuusulanjärvi and adaptive control of the aerator; a nutrition model for Lake Pyhäjärvi and lake management planning; validation of the algorithms of the GOMOS ozone remote sensing instrument on board the Envisat satellite of European Space Agency and the study of the effects of aerosol model selection on the GOMOS algorithm.

A Feedfordward Adaptive Controller to Reduce the Imaging Time of Large-Sized Biological Samples with a SPM-Based Multiprobe Station

The time required to image large samples is an important limiting factor in SPM-based systems. In multiprobe setups, especially when working with biological samples, this drawback can make impossible to conduct certain experiments. In this work, we present a feedfordward controller based on bang-bang and adaptive controls. The controls are based in the difference between the maximum speeds that can be used for imaging depending on the flatness of the sample zone. Topographic images of Escherichia coli bacteria samples were acquired using the implemented controllers. Results show that to go faster in the flat zones, rather than using a constant scanning speed for the whole image, speeds up the imaging process of large samples by up to a 4x factor.

Role of the cardiac nerve in the adaptive changes of heart rate in response to an aversive stimulus in Megalobulimus mogianensis

The effect of an aversive stimulus represented by contact with a hot plate on the heart rate of Megalobulimus mogianensis was evaluated with electrocardiogram recording in intact snails (N = 8). All stimulated animals showed an increase in heart rate, with mean values ranging from 35.6 ± 1.2 (basal heart rate) to 43.8 ± 0.9 bpm (post-stimulation heart rate). The cardioacceleration was followed by gradual recovery of the basal heart rate, with mean recovery times varying from 4.3 ± 0.3 to 5.8 ± 0.6 min. Repetition of the stimulus did not affect the magnitude of variation nor did it influence the basal heart rate recovery time. To investigate the role of the cardiac nerve in mediating the heart rate alterations induced by the aversive stimulus, denervated (N = 8) and sham-operated (N = 8) animals were also tested. Although the aversive stimulus caused the heart rate to increase significantly in both experimental groups, the mean increase in heart rate in denervated animals (4.4 ± 0.4 bpm) was 57% of the value obtained in sham-operated animals (7.7 ± 1.3 bpm), indicating that the cardiac nerve is responsible for 43% of the cardioacceleration induced by the aversive stimulus. The cardioacceleration observed in denervated snails may be due to an increase in venous return promoted by the intense muscular activity associated with the withdrawal response. Humoral factors may also be involved. A probable delaying inhibitory effect of the cardiac nerve on the recuperation of the basal heart rate is suggested.

Real-time adaptive control of ultra-fast laser scribing process with spectrometer online monitoring

There exist several researches and applications about laser welding monitoring and parameter control but not a single one have been created for controlling of laser scribing processes. Laser scribing is considered to be very fast and accurate process and thus it would be necessary to develop accurate turning and monitoring system for such a process. This research focuses on finding out whether it would be possible to develop real-time adaptive control for ultra-fast laser scribing processes utilizing spectrometer online monitoring. The thesis accurately presents how control code for laser parameter tuning is developed using National Instrument's LabVIEW and how spectrometer is being utilized in online monitoring. Results are based on behavior of the control code and accuracy of the spectrometer monitoring when scribing different steel materials. Finally control code success is being evaluated and possible development ideas for future are presented.

Short-Term Load Forecast Of A Low Loadfactor Power System For Optimization Of Merit Order Dispatch Using Adaptive Learning Algorithm

Short term load forecasting is one of the key inputs to optimize the management of power system. Almost 60-65% of revenue expenditure of a distribution company is against power purchase. Cost of power depends on source of power. Hence any optimization strategy involves optimization in scheduling power from various sources. As the scheduling involves many technical and commercial considerations and constraints, the efficiency in scheduling depends on the accuracy of load forecast. Load forecasting is a topic much visited in research world and a number of papers using different techniques are already presented. The accuracy of forecast for the purpose of merit order dispatch decisions depends on the extent of the permissible variation in generation limits. For a system with low load factor, the peak and the off peak trough are prominent and the forecast should be able to identify these points to more accuracy rather than minimizing the error in the energy content. In this paper an attempt is made to apply Artificial Neural Network (ANN) with supervised learning based approach to make short term load forecasting for a power system with comparatively low load factor. Such power systems are usual in tropical areas with concentrated rainy season for a considerable period of the year

Development of Directionally Adaptive Techniques for Single Image Super-Resolution

Super Resolution problem is an inverse problem and refers to the process of producing a High resolution (HR) image, making use of one or more Low Resolution (LR) observations. It includes up sampling the image, thereby, increasing the maximum spatial frequency and removing degradations that arise during the image capture namely aliasing and blurring. The work presented in this thesis is based on learning based single image super-resolution. In learning based super-resolution algorithms, a training set or database of available HR images are used to construct the HR image of an image captured using a LR camera. In the training set, images are stored as patches or coefficients of feature representations like wavelet transform, DCT, etc. Single frame image super-resolution can be used in applications where database of HR images are available. The advantage of this method is that by skilfully creating a database of suitable training images, one can improve the quality of the super-resolved image. A new super resolution method based on wavelet transform is developed and it is better than conventional wavelet transform based methods and standard interpolation methods. Super-resolution techniques based on skewed anisotropic transform called directionlet transform are developed to convert a low resolution image which is of small size into a high resolution image of large size. Super-resolution algorithm not only increases the size, but also reduces the degradations occurred during the process of capturing image. This method outperforms the standard interpolation methods and the wavelet methods, both visually and in terms of SNR values. Artifacts like aliasing and ringing effects are also eliminated in this method. The super-resolution methods are implemented using, both critically sampled and over sampled directionlets. The conventional directionlet transform is computationally complex. Hence lifting scheme is used for implementation of directionlets. The new single image super-resolution method based on lifting scheme reduces computational complexity and thereby reduces computation time. The quality of the super resolved image depends on the type of wavelet basis used. A study is conducted to find the effect of different wavelets on the single image super-resolution method. Finally this new method implemented on grey images is extended to colour images and noisy images

Adaptive Real-time Anomaly-based Intrusion Detection using Data Mining and Machine Learning Techniques

Die zunehmende Vernetzung der Informations- und Kommunikationssysteme führt zu einer weiteren Erhöhung der Komplexität und damit auch zu einer weiteren Zunahme von Sicherheitslücken. Klassische Schutzmechanismen wie Firewall-Systeme und Anti-Malware-Lösungen bieten schon lange keinen Schutz mehr vor Eindringversuchen in IT-Infrastrukturen. Als ein sehr wirkungsvolles Instrument zum Schutz gegenüber Cyber-Attacken haben sich hierbei die Intrusion Detection Systeme (IDS) etabliert. Solche Systeme sammeln und analysieren Informationen von Netzwerkkomponenten und Rechnern, um ungewöhnliches Verhalten und Sicherheitsverletzungen automatisiert festzustellen. Während signatur-basierte Ansätze nur bereits bekannte Angriffsmuster detektieren können, sind anomalie-basierte IDS auch in der Lage, neue bisher unbekannte Angriffe (Zero-Day-Attacks) frühzeitig zu erkennen. Das Kernproblem von Intrusion Detection Systeme besteht jedoch in der optimalen Verarbeitung der gewaltigen Netzdaten und der Entwicklung eines in Echtzeit arbeitenden adaptiven Erkennungsmodells. Um diese Herausforderungen lösen zu können, stellt diese Dissertation ein Framework bereit, das aus zwei Hauptteilen besteht. Der erste Teil, OptiFilter genannt, verwendet ein dynamisches "Queuing Concept", um die zahlreich anfallenden Netzdaten weiter zu verarbeiten, baut fortlaufend Netzverbindungen auf, und exportiert strukturierte Input-Daten für das IDS. Den zweiten Teil stellt ein adaptiver Klassifikator dar, der ein Klassifikator-Modell basierend auf "Enhanced Growing Hierarchical Self Organizing Map" (EGHSOM), ein Modell für Netzwerk Normalzustand (NNB) und ein "Update Model" umfasst. In dem OptiFilter werden Tcpdump und SNMP traps benutzt, um die Netzwerkpakete und Hostereignisse fortlaufend zu aggregieren. Diese aggregierten Netzwerkpackete und Hostereignisse werden weiter analysiert und in Verbindungsvektoren umgewandelt. Zur Verbesserung der Erkennungsrate des adaptiven Klassifikators wird das künstliche neuronale Netz GHSOM intensiv untersucht und wesentlich weiterentwickelt. In dieser Dissertation werden unterschiedliche Ansätze vorgeschlagen und diskutiert. So wird eine classification-confidence margin threshold definiert, um die unbekannten bösartigen Verbindungen aufzudecken, die Stabilität der Wachstumstopologie durch neuartige Ansätze für die Initialisierung der Gewichtvektoren und durch die Stärkung der Winner Neuronen erhöht, und ein selbst-adaptives Verfahren eingeführt, um das Modell ständig aktualisieren zu können. Darüber hinaus besteht die Hauptaufgabe des NNB-Modells in der weiteren Untersuchung der erkannten unbekannten Verbindungen von der EGHSOM und der Überprüfung, ob sie normal sind. Jedoch, ändern sich die Netzverkehrsdaten wegen des Concept drif Phänomens ständig, was in Echtzeit zur Erzeugung nicht stationärer Netzdaten führt. Dieses Phänomen wird von dem Update-Modell besser kontrolliert. Das EGHSOM-Modell kann die neuen Anomalien effektiv erkennen und das NNB-Model passt die Änderungen in Netzdaten optimal an. Bei den experimentellen Untersuchungen hat das Framework erfolgversprechende Ergebnisse gezeigt. Im ersten Experiment wurde das Framework in Offline-Betriebsmodus evaluiert. Der OptiFilter wurde mit offline-, synthetischen- und realistischen Daten ausgewertet. Der adaptive Klassifikator wurde mit dem 10-Fold Cross Validation Verfahren evaluiert, um dessen Genauigkeit abzuschätzen. Im zweiten Experiment wurde das Framework auf einer 1 bis 10 GB Netzwerkstrecke installiert und im Online-Betriebsmodus in Echtzeit ausgewertet. Der OptiFilter hat erfolgreich die gewaltige Menge von Netzdaten in die strukturierten Verbindungsvektoren umgewandelt und der adaptive Klassifikator hat sie präzise klassifiziert. Die Vergleichsstudie zwischen dem entwickelten Framework und anderen bekannten IDS-Ansätzen zeigt, dass der vorgeschlagene IDSFramework alle anderen Ansätze übertrifft. Dies lässt sich auf folgende Kernpunkte zurückführen: Bearbeitung der gesammelten Netzdaten, Erreichung der besten Performanz (wie die Gesamtgenauigkeit), Detektieren unbekannter Verbindungen und Entwicklung des in Echtzeit arbeitenden Erkennungsmodells von Eindringversuchen.

Adaptive routing in active networks

New conceptual ideas on network architectures have been proposed in the recent past. Current store-andforward routers are replaced by active intermediate systems, which are able to perform computations on transient packets, in a way that results very helpful for developing and deploying new protocols in a short time. This paper introduces a new routing algorithm, based on a congestion metric, and inspired by the behavior of ants in nature. The use of the Active Networks paradigm associated with a cooperative learning environment produces a robust, decentralized algorithm capable of adapting quickly to changing conditions.

Investigation into the performance of an algorithm for deriving concise descriptions of optic flow fields for real-time control

This paper describes a region-based algorithm for deriving a concise description of a first order optical flow field. The algorithm described achieves performance improvements over existing algorithms without compromising the accuracy of the flow field values calculated. These improvements are brought about by not computing the entire flow field between two consecutive images, but by considering only the flow vectors of a selected subset of the images. The algorithm is presented in the context of a project to balance a bipedal robot using visual information.

Adaptive modelling with tunable RBF network using multi-innovation RLS algorithm assisted by swarm intelligence

In this paper, we propose a new on-line learning algorithm for the non-linear system identification: the swarm intelligence aided multi-innovation recursive least squares (SI-MRLS) algorithm. The SI-MRLS algorithm applies the particle swarm optimization (PSO) to construct a flexible radial basis function (RBF) model so that both the model structure and output weights can be adapted. By replacing an insignificant RBF node with a new one based on the increment of error variance criterion at every iteration, the model remains at a limited size. The multi-innovation RLS algorithm is used to update the RBF output weights which are known to have better accuracy than the classic RLS. The proposed method can produces a parsimonious model with good performance. Simulation result are also shown to verify the SI-MRLS algorithm.

The real-time optimisation of DNO owned storage devices on the LV network for peak reduction

Energy storage is a potential alternative to conventional network reinforcementof the low voltage (LV) distribution network to ensure the grid’s infrastructure remainswithin its operating constraints. This paper presents a study on the control of such storagedevices, owned by distribution network operators. A deterministic model predictive control (MPC) controller and a stochastic receding horizon controller (SRHC) are presented, wherethe objective is to achieve the greatest peak reduction in demand, for a given storagedevice specification, taking into account the high level of uncertainty in the prediction of LV demand. The algorithms presented in this paper are compared to a standard set-pointcontroller and bench marked against a control algorithm with a perfect forecast. A specificcase study, using storage on the LV network, is presented, and the results of each algorithmare compared. A comprehensive analysis is then carried out simulating a large number of LV networks of varying numbers of households. The results show that the performance of each algorithm is dependent on the number of aggregated households. However, on a typical aggregation, the novel SRHC algorithm presented in this paper is shown to outperform each of the comparable storage control techniques.