Fiscal policy and private investment: latin america in a comparative perspective

The main objective of the paper is to assess the impact of fiscal variables on private investment comparing some Latin-American economies to other advanced ones. For such purposes, the authors carry out an econometric analysis for the period 1990-2008. They make use of two dynamic panel models in which they group countries with similar characteristics and development levels. In one of them, they include Mexico, Brazil, Chile, Colombia and Uruguay; whereas in the second one the countries accounted for are the U.S., Canada, Spain, Korea, Ireland and Japan. They specify in both models an investment function using as arguments a wide range of variables, including those related with fiscal policy. From their results the authors infer that governments can, with higher spending, boost up the economy even when they finance spending with higher taxes. In Latin America, where income concentration is enormous, a proposal to boost up the economy through higher government expenditure financed with a progressive income tax, is even more justified.

A gerência recente do endividamento público brasileiro

The recente Brazilian public management. We use two frameworks to analyze the recent Brazilian public debt management. The first one encompasses the Brazilian optimal public debt management analysis through the examination of the correlations among the main variables to which the public debt is indexed. The second seeks to address the consequences of recent Brazilian economic policies, such as international reserves accumulation through sterilized interventions by the Central Bank and excessive capitalization of federal financial institutions. Those policies have important, albeit often ignored, fiscal impacts, which became important to determine the current size, maturity and composition of the public debt stock.

Metas de inflação, regra de Taylor e neutralidade da moeda: uma crítica pós-keynesiana

Inflation targeting, Taylor rule and money neutrality: a post-Keynesian critic. This paper critically discusses the inflation targeting regime proposed by orthodox economists, in particular the Taylor Rule. The article describes how the Taylor Rule assumes the argument of money neutrality inherited from the Quantitative Theory of Money. It discusses critically the ways of operation of the rule, and the negative impacts of the interest rate over the potential output. In this sense, the article shows the possible vicious circles of the monetary policy when money is not neutral, as is the case for post-keynesian economists. The relation of interest rates, potential output and the output gap is illustrated in some estimates using the methodology of Vector Auto-Regressive in the Brazilian case.

Corruption, income, and rule of law: empirical evidence from developing and developed economies

This article presents an empirical analysis based on cross-country data concerned with two points regarding corruption: (i) its effects on income; and (ii) how to mitigate corruption. The findings can be highlighted in two points. Firstly the idea that corruption is intrinsically connected with income is confirmed. Secondly, the traditional argument that an increase in rule of law represents a good strategy in the fight against corruption is valid for developing countries. Furthermore, this study reveals that the search for increasing the human development index represents a rule of thumb for high levels of income and to control corruption.

As fases históricas do debate sobre a transformação dos valores em preços de produção

The historical phases of the debate on the transformation of values into production prices. Even though the transformation problem in general does not have a widen accepted solution, it is possible to recognize scientific progress when the historical phases of the debate are put side by side in order to complement each other. Therefore, the debate originated from the challenge of the conciliation of the law of value with an equal average rate of profit, though sometimes said to be unfruitful by economists, shows evolution in the long run because it forces non-marxist economic schools to confront concretely the quality side of value in theory and to develop abstract models of planned economy in practice.

Structuralist macroeconomics and the new developmentalism

This paper first presents some basic ideas and models of a structuralist development macroeconomics that complements and actualizes the ideas of the structuralist development economics that was dominant between the 1940s and the 1960s. A system of three models focusing on the exchange rate (the tendency to the cyclical overvaluation of the exchange rate, a critique of growth with foreign savings, and new a model of the Dutch disease) shows that it is not just volatile but chronically overvalued, and for that reason it is not just a macroeconomic problem; as a long term disequilibrium, it is in the core of development economics. Second, it summarizes "new developmentalism" - a sum of growth policies based on these models and on the experience of fast-growing Asian countries.

The "hot money" phenomenon in Brazil

Because of its high interest rates, Brazil attracts more and more speculative capital flows, called "hot money", under the form of foreign loans, direct or portfolio investments. Actually, the country is directly involved in a carry-trade strategy that tends to appreciate the real, what penalizes the Brazilian exportations of manufactured products. Moreover, capital inflows are extremely volatile, and their departure, causing a fall in loans granted to the Brazilian private banks, could provoke a dangerous burst of the speculative bubble they have contributed to form in the Brazilian real estate sector.

Quinze anos de rigidez monetária no Brasil pós-Plano Real: uma agenda de pesquisa

Fifteen years of monetary rigidity in Brazil after the Real Plan: a research agenda.The paper makes a review of literature and a research agenda on the anomaly of Brazilian monetary policy. Following a retrospect of the first 15 years after the Real Plan, there is a review of studies aiming to explain the high real interest rate. None of the summarized theses can completely explain the phenomenon. The main research opportunities are: deepening of empirical evidence of monetary policy efficacy loss; improvement in mensuration of its inefficacy; and improvement of alternative instruments to control inflation. The field of political economy is also fertile. One should assess the relevance of oligopolies as an explaining factor of persistence of high inflation.

Brazil as an emerging economy: a new economic miracle?

This article shows that abundant resources and blind faith in an optimistic future cannot result in sustainable growth in Brazil. There are great deficiencies in various areas which make sustained high growth rates almost impossible to achieve, such as the low investment ratio, deficiencies in creating human capital, high interest rates leading to an uncompetitive exchange rate and a lack of infrastructural development.

Regime cambial e mudança estrutural na indústria de transformação brasileira: evidências para o período (1994-2008)

Exchange rate regime and structural changes in the Brazilian manufacturing industry. This article proposes an analysis of the relationship between exchange rate regime and evolution of the Brazilian manufacturing industry during the period 1980-2008. Its main purpose is to detect the direction of the structural changes imposed by the new form of international insertion consolidated throughout the 1990s. The work also provides new empirical evidence regarding the assumptions of deindustrialization and "Dutch disease", which mark the current debate on the effects of the appreciation of real exchange rate in the Brazilian economy.

Freedom of choice and bounded rationality: a brief appraisal of behavioral economists' plea for light paternalism

Behavioral economics has addressed interesting positive and normative questions underlying the standard rational choice theory. More recently, it suggests that, in a real world of boundedly rational agents, economists could help people to improve the quality of their choices without any harm to autonomy and freedom of choice. This paper aims to scrutinize available arguments for and against current proposals of light paternalistic interventions mainly in the domain of intertemporal choice. It argues that incorporating the notion of bounded rationality in economic analysis and empirical findings of cognitive biases and self-control problems cannot make an indisputable case for paternalism.

Mudança estrutural e mercado de trabalho no Brasil

Structural changes and labor market in Brazil. In the present article, we attempt to identify the sources of the changes in the labor schooling level in the three main sectors of the Brazilian economy: manufacturing, services and agriculture. It was verified that, despite the changes in the product and employment among sectors, mainly in the 1990s, the relative demands for qualified workers has not experimented significant changes. Moreover, in the periods in which schooling has increased more, the workers' wage has decreased more. This fact suggests that the increase in labor qualification was mainly due to the increase of this factor supply. The structural changes had contributed, in general, in a marginal and negative way to labor force level of qualification demand in all the three sectors.

Estimando o retorno à educação do Brasil considerando a legislação educacional brasileira como um instrumento

Estimating the return to education the Brazilian legislation of education as an instrument considering. This paper aims to estimate the impact of education on wages in Brazil. GDP, Population, and the number of schools in the state and year when the individual was born as instruments for his education level were used. In this context, the paper consider other instrument, the Brazilian education Law 5692 of 1971. The results show that the Law 5692 of 1971 and the number of schools in the individual's year of birth bears a positive relationship with his education, and the returns to education decrease quite substantially when the method of instrumental variables is used.

Defasagem idade-série a partir de distintas perspectivas teóricas

Age-grade gap from different theoretical perspectives. The purpose of this article is to analyze the determinants of the age-grade gap based on the human capital theory and some education sociology approaches. The article also shows the range and limitations of the Family Scholarship Transfer Programme (programa Bolsa Familia) in this age-grade gap reduction process. From the investigated theoretical aspects it can be concluded that this Programme would only show long-term effectiveness in the poverty reduction process if supported by at least a combination of programs and actions aimed at improving this educational indicator.