Evidence-based Economic Policy - Three Essays in Applied Microeconometrics

Over thirty years ago, Leamer (1983) - among many others - expressed doubts about the quality and usefulness of empirical analyses for the economic profession by stating that "hardly anyone takes data analyses seriously. Or perhaps more accurately, hardly anyone takes anyone else's data analyses seriously" (p.37). Improvements in data quality, more robust estimation methods and the evolution of better research designs seem to make that assertion no longer justifiable (see Angrist and Pischke (2010) for a recent response to Leamer's essay). The economic profes- sion and policy makers alike often rely on empirical evidence as a means to investigate policy relevant questions. The approach of using scientifically rigorous and systematic evidence to identify policies and programs that are capable of improving policy-relevant outcomes is known under the increasingly popular notion of evidence-based policy. Evidence-based economic policy often relies on randomized or quasi-natural experiments in order to identify causal effects of policies. These can require relatively strong assumptions or raise concerns of external validity. In the context of this thesis, potential concerns are for example endogeneity of policy reforms with respect to the business cycle in the first chapter, the trade-off between precision and bias in the regression-discontinuity setting in chapter 2 or non-representativeness of the sample due to self-selection in chapter 3. While the identification strategies are very useful to gain insights into the causal effects of specific policy questions, transforming the evidence into concrete policy conclusions can be challenging. Policy develop- ment should therefore rely on the systematic evidence of a whole body of research on a specific policy question rather than on a single analysis. In this sense, this thesis cannot and should not be viewed as a comprehensive analysis of specific policy issues but rather as a first step towards a better understanding of certain aspects of a policy question. The thesis applies new and innovative identification strategies to policy-relevant and topical questions in the fields of labor economics and behavioral environmental economics. Each chapter relies on a different identification strategy. In the first chapter, we employ a difference- in-differences approach to exploit the quasi-experimental change in the entitlement of the max- imum unemployment benefit duration to identify the medium-run effects of reduced benefit durations on post-unemployment outcomes. Shortening benefit duration carries a double- dividend: It generates fiscal benefits without deteriorating the quality of job-matches. On the contrary, shortened benefit durations improve medium-run earnings and employment possibly through containing the negative effects of skill depreciation or stigmatization. While the first chapter provides only indirect evidence on the underlying behavioral channels, in the second chapter I develop a novel approach that allows to learn about the relative impor- tance of the two key margins of job search - reservation wage choice and search effort. In the framework of a standard non-stationary job search model, I show how the exit rate from un- employment can be decomposed in a way that is informative on reservation wage movements over the unemployment spell. The empirical analysis relies on a sharp discontinuity in unem- ployment benefit entitlement, which can be exploited in a regression-discontinuity approach to identify the effects of extended benefit durations on unemployment and survivor functions. I find evidence that calls for an important role of reservation wage choices for job search be- havior. This can have direct implications for the optimal design of unemployment insurance policies. The third chapter - while thematically detached from the other chapters - addresses one of the major policy challenges of the 21st century: climate change and resource consumption. Many governments have recently put energy efficiency on top of their agendas. While pricing instru- ments aimed at regulating the energy demand have often been found to be short-lived and difficult to enforce politically, the focus of energy conservation programs has shifted towards behavioral approaches - such as provision of information or social norm feedback. The third chapter describes a randomized controlled field experiment in which we discuss the effective- ness of different types of feedback on residential electricity consumption. We find that detailed and real-time feedback caused persistent electricity reductions on the order of 3 to 5 % of daily electricity consumption. Also social norm information can generate substantial electricity sav- ings when designed appropriately. The findings suggest that behavioral approaches constitute effective and relatively cheap way of improving residential energy-efficiency.

Combining palaeodistribution modelling and phylogeographical approaches for identifying glacial refugia in Alpine Primula

Aim We investigated the late Quaternary history of two closely related and partly sympatric species of Primula from the south-western European Alps, P. latifolia Lapeyr. and P. marginata Curtis, by combining phylogeographical and palaeodistribution modelling approaches. In particular, we were interested in whether the two approaches were congruent and identified the same glacial refugia. Location South-western European Alps. Methods For the phylogeographical analysis we included 353 individuals from 28 populations of P. marginata and 172 individuals from 15 populations of P. latifolia and used amplified fragment length polymorphisms (AFLPs). For palaeodistribution modelling, species distribution models (SDMs) were based on extant species occurrences and then projected to climate models (CCSM, MIROC) of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), approximately 21 ka. Results The locations of the modelled LGM refugia were confirmed by various indices of genetic variation. The refugia of the two species were largely geographically isolated, overlapping only 6% to 11% of the species' total LGM distribution. This overlap decreased when the position of the glacial ice sheet and the differential elevational and edaphic distributions of the two species were considered. Main conclusions The combination of phylogeography and palaeodistribution modelling proved useful in locating putative glacial refugia of two alpine species of Primula. The phylogeographical data allowed us to identify those parts of the modelled LGM refugial area that were likely source areas for recolonization. The use of SDMs predicted LGM refugial areas substantially larger and geographically more divergent than could have been predicted by phylogeographical data alone

A multicase study for the evaluation of a pattern-based visual design process for collaborative learning

Collage is a pattern-based visual design authoring tool for the creation of collaborative learning scripts computationally modelled with IMS Learning Design (LD). The pattern-based visual approach aims to provide teachers with design ideas that are based on broadly accepted practices. Besides, it seeks hiding the LD notation so that teachers can easily create their own designs. The use of visual representations supports both the understanding of the design ideas and the usability of the authoring tool. This paper presents a multicase study comprising three different cases that evaluate the approach from different perspectives. The first case includes workshops where teachers use Collage. A second case implies the design of a scenario proposed by a third-party using related approaches. The third case analyzes a situation where students follow a design created with Collage. The cross-case analysis provides a global understanding of the possibilities and limitations of the pattern-based visual design approach.

Free-and open source software for a course on network management: authoring and enactment of scripts based on collaborative learning strategies

This paper describes a Computer-Supported Collaborative Learning (CSCL) case study in engineering education carried out within the context of a network management course. The case study shows that the use of two computing tools developed by the authors and based on Free- and Open-Source Software (FOSS) provide significant educational benefits over traditional engineering pedagogical approaches in terms of both concepts and engineering competencies acquisition. First, the Collage authoring tool guides and supports the course teacher in the process of authoring computer-interpretable representations (using the IMS Learning Design standard notation) of effective collaborative pedagogical designs. Besides, the Gridcole system supports the enactment of that design by guiding the students throughout the prescribed sequence of learning activities. The paper introduces the goals and context of the case study, elaborates onhow Collage and Gridcole were employed, describes the applied evaluation methodology, anddiscusses the most significant findings derived from the case study.

Deployment of self-expandable stents in aneurysmatic cerebral vessels: comparison of different computational approaches for interventional planning

In the last few years, there has been a growing focus on faster computational methods to support clinicians in planning stenting procedures. This study investigates the possibility of introducing computational approximations in modelling stent deployment in aneurysmatic cerebral vessels to achieve simulations compatible with the constraints of real clinical workflows. The release of a self-expandable stent in a simplified aneurysmatic vessel was modelled in four different initial positions. Six progressively simplified modelling approaches (based on Finite Element method and Fast Virtual Stenting – FVS) have been used. Comparing accuracy of the results, the final configuration of the stent is more affected by neglecting mechanical properties of materials (FVS) than by adopting 1D instead of 3D stent models. Nevertheless, the differencesshowed are acceptable compared to those achieved by considering different stent initial positions. Regarding computationalcosts, simulations involving 1D stent features are the only ones feasible in clinical context.

Hierachy-based methodology for producing educational contents with maximal reutilization

Computer based training or distance education are facing dramatic changes withthe advent of standardization efforts, some of them concentrating in maximal reuse.This is of paramount importance for a sustainable -cost affordable- production ofeducational materials. Reuse in itself should not be a goal, though, since manymethodological aspects might be lost. In this paper we propose two contentproduction approaches for the InterMediActor platform under a competence-basedmethodology: either a bottom-up approach where content is designed from scratchor a top-down methodology where existing material can be gradually adapted tofulfil requisites to be used with maximal flexibility into InterMediActor.

Magnetization transfer-based 3D visualization of foot peripheral nerves.

PURPOSE: To investigate magnetization transfer (MT) effects as a new source of contrast for imaging and tracking of peripheral foot nerves. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Two sets of 3D spoiled gradient-echo images acquired with and without a saturation pulse were used to generate MT ratio (MTR) maps of 260 μm in-plane resolution for eight volunteers at 3T. Scan parameters were adjusted to minimize signal loss due to T2 dephasing, and a dedicated coil was used to improve the inherently low signal-to-noise ratio of small voxels. Resulting MTR values in foot nerves were compared with those in surrounding muscle tissue. RESULTS: Average MTR values for muscle (45.5 ± 1.4%) and nerve (21.4 ± 3.1%) were significantly different (P < 0.0001). In general, the difference in MTR values was sufficiently large to allow for intensity-based segmentation and tracking of foot nerves in individual subjects. This procedure was termed MT-based 3D visualization. CONCLUSION: The MTR serves as a new source of contrast for imaging of peripheral foot nerves and provides a means for high spatial resolution tracking of these structures. The proposed methodology is directly applicable on standard clinical MR scanners and could be applied to systemic pathologies, such as diabetes.

Experimental and computational approaches to quantitative proteomics: status quo and outlook.

Proteomics has come a long way from the initial qualitative analysis of proteins present in a given sample at a given time ("cataloguing") to large-scale characterization of proteomes, their interactions and dynamic behavior. Originally enabled by breakthroughs in protein separation and visualization (by two-dimensional gels) and protein identification (by mass spectrometry), the discipline now encompasses a large body of protein and peptide separation, labeling, detection and sequencing tools supported by computational data processing. The decisive mass spectrometric developments and most recent instrumentation news are briefly mentioned accompanied by a short review of gel and chromatographic techniques for protein/peptide separation, depletion and enrichment. Special emphasis is placed on quantification techniques: gel-based, and label-free techniques are briefly discussed whereas stable-isotope coding and internal peptide standards are extensively reviewed. Another special chapter is dedicated to software and computing tools for proteomic data processing and validation. A short assessment of the status quo and recommendations for future developments round up this journey through quantitative proteomics.

On Consumer Decision Strategies: New Approaches for Studying and Aiding Preferential Choices

This dissertation focuses on the strategies consumers use when making purchase decisions. It is organized in two main parts, one centering on descriptive and the other on applied decision making research. In the first part, a new process tracing tool called InterActive Process Tracing (IAPT) is pre- sented, which I developed to investigate the nature of consumers' decision strategies. This tool is a combination of several process tracing techniques, namely Active Information Search, Mouselab, and retrospective verbal protocol. To validate IAPT, two experiments on mobile phone purchase de- cisions were conducted where participants first repeatedly chose a mobile phone and then were asked to formalize their decision strategy so that it could be used to make choices for them. The choices made by the identified strategies correctly predicted the observed choices in 73% (Experiment 1) and 67% (Experiment 2) of the cases. Moreover, in Experiment 2, Mouselab and eye tracking were directly compared with respect to their impact on information search and strategy description. Only minor differences were found between these two methods. I conclude that IAPT is a useful research tool to identify choice strategies, and that using eye tracking technology did not increase its validity beyond that gained with Mouselab. In the second part, a prototype of a decision aid is introduced that was developed building in particular on the knowledge about consumers' decision strategies gained in Part I. This decision aid, which is called the InterActive Choice Aid (IACA), systematically assists consumers in their purchase decisions. To evaluate the prototype regarding its perceived utility, an experiment was conducted where IACA was compared to two other prototypes that were based on real-world consumer decision aids. All three prototypes differed in the number and type of tools they provided to facilitate the process of choosing, ranging from low (Amazon) to medium (Sunrise/dpreview) to high functionality (IACA). Overall, participants slightly preferred the prototype of medium functionality and this prototype was also rated best on the dimensions of understandability and ease of use. IACA was rated best regarding the two dimensions of ease of elimination and ease of comparison of alternatives. Moreover, participants choices were more in line with the normatively oriented weighted additive strategy when they used IACA than when they used the medium functionality prototype. The low functionality prototype was the least preferred overall. It is concluded that consumers can and will benefit from highly functional decision aids like IACA, but only when these systems are easy to understand and to use.

Effects of web-based electrocardiography simulation on strategies and learning styles

OBJECTIVETo identify the association between the use of web simulation electrocardiography and the learning approaches, strategies and styles of nursing degree students.METHODA descriptive and correlational design with a one-group pretest-posttest measurement was used. The study sample included 246 students in a Basic and Advanced Cardiac Life Support nursing class of nursing degree.RESULTSNo significant differences between genders were found in any dimension of learning styles and approaches to learning. After the introduction of web simulation electrocardiography, significant differences were found in some item scores of learning styles: theorist (p < 0.040), pragmatic (p < 0.010) and approaches to learning.CONCLUSIONThe use of a web electrocardiogram (ECG) simulation is associated with the development of active and reflexive learning styles, improving motivation and a deep approach in nursing students.

A novel bioinformatics pipeline to discover genes related to arbuscular mycorrhizal symbiosis based on their evolutionary conservation pattern among higher plants.

BACKGROUND: Genes involved in arbuscular mycorrhizal (AM) symbiosis have been identified primarily by mutant screens, followed by identification of the mutated genes (forward genetics). In addition, a number of AM-related genes has been identified by their AM-related expression patterns, and their function has subsequently been elucidated by knock-down or knock-out approaches (reverse genetics). However, genes that are members of functionally redundant gene families, or genes that have a vital function and therefore result in lethal mutant phenotypes, are difficult to identify. If such genes are constitutively expressed and therefore escape differential expression analyses, they remain elusive. The goal of this study was to systematically search for AM-related genes with a bioinformatics strategy that is insensitive to these problems. The central element of our approach is based on the fact that many AM-related genes are conserved only among AM-competent species. RESULTS: Our approach involves genome-wide comparisons at the proteome level of AM-competent host species with non-mycorrhizal species. Using a clustering method we first established orthologous/paralogous relationships and subsequently identified protein clusters that contain members only of the AM-competent species. Proteins of these clusters were then analyzed in an extended set of 16 plant species and ranked based on their relatedness among AM-competent monocot and dicot species, relative to non-mycorrhizal species. In addition, we combined the information on the protein-coding sequence with gene expression data and with promoter analysis. As a result we present a list of yet uncharacterized proteins that show a strongly AM-related pattern of sequence conservation, indicating that the respective genes may have been under selection for a function in AM. Among the top candidates are three genes that encode a small family of similar receptor-like kinases that are related to the S-locus receptor kinases involved in sporophytic self-incompatibility. CONCLUSIONS: We present a new systematic strategy of gene discovery based on conservation of the protein-coding sequence that complements classical forward and reverse genetics. This strategy can be applied to diverse other biological phenomena if species with established genome sequences fall into distinguished groups that differ in a defined functional trait of interest.

Integration of high-resolution geophysical data for the characterization of alluvial aquifers : new approaches and implications for hydrological predictions

Abstract Accurate characterization of the spatial distribution of hydrological properties in heterogeneous aquifers at a range of scales is a key prerequisite for reliable modeling of subsurface contaminant transport, and is essential for designing effective and cost-efficient groundwater management and remediation strategies. To this end, high-resolution geophysical methods have shown significant potential to bridge a critical gap in subsurface resolution and coverage between traditional hydrological measurement techniques such as borehole log/core analyses and tracer or pumping tests. An important and still largely unresolved issue, however, is how to best quantitatively integrate geophysical data into a characterization study in order to estimate the spatial distribution of one or more pertinent hydrological parameters, thus improving hydrological predictions. Recognizing the importance of this issue, the aim of the research presented in this thesis was to first develop a strategy for the assimilation of several types of hydrogeophysical data having varying degrees of resolution, subsurface coverage, and sensitivity to the hydrologic parameter of interest. In this regard a novel simulated annealing (SA)-based conditional simulation approach was developed and then tested in its ability to generate realizations of porosity given crosshole ground-penetrating radar (GPR) and neutron porosity log data. This was done successfully for both synthetic and field data sets. A subsequent issue that needed to be addressed involved assessing the potential benefits and implications of the resulting porosity realizations in terms of groundwater flow and contaminant transport. This was investigated synthetically assuming first that the relationship between porosity and hydraulic conductivity was well-defined. Then, the relationship was itself investigated in the context of a calibration procedure using hypothetical tracer test data. Essentially, the relationship best predicting the observed tracer test measurements was determined given the geophysically derived porosity structure. Both of these investigations showed that the SA-based approach, in general, allows much more reliable hydrological predictions than other more elementary techniques considered. Further, the developed calibration procedure was seen to be very effective, even at the scale of tomographic resolution, for predictions of transport. This also held true at locations within the aquifer where only geophysical data were available. This is significant because the acquisition of hydrological tracer test measurements is clearly more complicated and expensive than the acquisition of geophysical measurements. Although the above methodologies were tested using porosity logs and GPR data, the findings are expected to remain valid for a large number of pertinent combinations of geophysical and borehole log data of comparable resolution and sensitivity to the hydrological target parameter. Moreover, the obtained results allow us to have confidence for future developments in integration methodologies for geophysical and hydrological data to improve the 3-D estimation of hydrological properties.

A genetic isolation gradient of populations of the Balearic green toad (Bufo balearicus) follows rising eastward fragmentation of the rural landscapes on the island of Menorca.

We present the first approach to the genetic diversity and structure of the Balearic toad (Bufo balearicus Boettger, 1880) for the island of Menorca. Forty-one individ- uals from 21 localities were analyzed for ten microsatellite loci. We used geo-refer- enced individual multilocus genotypes and a model-based clustering method for the inference of the number of populations and of the spatial location of genetic dis- continuities between those populations.¦Only six of the microsatellites analyzed were polymorphic. We revealed a northwest- ern area inhabited by a single population with several well-connected localities and another set of populations in the southeast that includes a few unconnected small units with genetically significant differences among them as well as with the individ- uals from the northwest of the island. The observed fragmentation may be explained by shifts from agricultural to tourism practices that have been taking place on the island of Menorca since the 1960s. The abandonment of rural activities in favor of urbanization and concomitant service areas has mostly affected the southeast of the island and is currently threatening the overall geographic connectivity between the different farming areas of the island that are inhabited by the Balearic toad.

Latitudinal gradient effect on the wing geometry of Auca coctei (Guérin)(Lepidoptera, Nymphalidae)

Latitudinal gradient effect on the wing geometry of Auca coctei (Guérin) (Lepidoptera, Nymphalidae). When the environmental conditions change locally, the organisms and populations may also change in response to the selection pressure, so that the development of individuals may become affected in different degrees. There have been only a few studies in which the patterns of wing morphology variation have been looked into along a latitudinal gradient by means of geometric morphometrics. The aim of this work was to assess the morphologic differentiation of wing among butterfly populations of the species Auca coctei. For this purpose, 9 sampling locations were used which are representative of the distribution range of the butterfly and cover a wide latitudinal range in Chile. The wing morphology was studied in a total of 202 specimens of A. coctei (150 males and 52 females), based on digitization of 17 morphologic landmarks. The results show variation of wing shape in both sexes; however, for the centroid size there was significant variation only in females. Females show smaller centroid size at higher latitudes, therefore in this study the Bergmann reverse rule is confirmed for females of A. coctei. Our study extends morphologic projections with latitude, suggesting that wing variation is an environmental response from diverse origins and may influence different characteristics of the life history of a butterfly.

Two new species of Mycodrosophila (Diptera, Drosophilidae) proposed by molecular and morphological approaches, with a key to American species

ABSTRACT There are approximately 130 species of MycodrosophilaOldenberg, 1914 worldwide, although only nine species were recorded in American countries so far, three of which are exclusively Nearctic, five exclusively Neotropical and one found in both biogeographic regions (Mycodrosophila projectans). Such a small number of American species is likely a consequence of collecting bias, which favors the capture of frugivorous drosophilids, and to the general absence of Neotropical Mycodrosophila studies in the last 50 years. Here, we describe two commonly sampled species of Mycodrosophila from the Amazonian and Pampa Brazilian biomes, which share morphological similarities with Mycodrosophila neoprojectans and M. projectans, respectively. We compared sequences of the mitochondrial gene cytochrome oxidase subunit I (COI), external morphology characteristics and male terminalia among these species. Based on a DNA barcoding approach coupled to morphological differences, we proposed the delimitation of two new species, Mycodrosophila hofmanni sp. nov. and Mycodrosophila valentae sp. nov. An updated key to identifying Neotropical and Nearctic Mycodrosophila species is also provided.