Electrical load forecasting formulation by a fast neural network

The objective of this work is to develop a methodology for electric load forecasting based on a neural network. Here, backpropagation algorithm is used with an adaptive process that based on fuzzy logic and using a decaying exponential function to avoid instability in the convergence process. This methodology results in fast training, when compared to the conventional formulation of backpropagation algorithm. The results are presented using data from a Brazilian Electric Company, and shows a very good performance for the proposal objective.

Electric load forecasting using a fuzzy ART&ARTMAP neural network

This work presents a neural network based on the ART architecture ( adaptive resonance theory), named fuzzy ART& ARTMAP neural network, applied to the electric load-forecasting problem. The neural networks based on the ARTarchitecture have two fundamental characteristics that are extremely important for the network performance ( stability and plasticity), which allow the implementation of continuous training. The fuzzy ART& ARTMAP neural network aims to reduce the imprecision of the forecasting results by a mechanism that separate the analog and binary data, processing them separately. Therefore, this represents a reduction on the processing time and improved quality of the results, when compared to the Back-Propagation neural network, and better to the classical forecasting techniques (ARIMA of Box and Jenkins methods). Finished the training, the fuzzy ART& ARTMAP neural network is capable to forecast electrical loads 24 h in advance. To validate the methodology, data from a Brazilian electric company is used. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Multinodal Load Forecasting in Power Electric Systems using a Neural Network with Radial Basis Function

In this paper we present the results of the use of a methodology for multinodal load forecasting through an artificial neural network-type Multilayer Perceptron, making use of radial basis functions as activation function and the Backpropagation algorithm, as an algorithm to train the network. This methodology allows you to make the prediction at various points in power system, considering different types of consumers (residential, commercial, industrial) of the electric grid, is applied to the problem short-term electric load forecasting (24 hours ahead). We use a database (Centralised Dataset - CDS) provided by the Electricity Commission de New Zealand to this work.

Multi-Agent Simulation of Urban Social Dynamics for Spatial Load Forecasting

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

A Cellular Automaton Approach to Spatial Electric Load Forecasting

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

An effortless hybrid method to solve economic load dispatch problem in power systems

This paper proposes a new approach and coding scheme for solving economic dispatch problems (ED) in power systems through an effortless hybrid method (EHM). This novel coding scheme can effectively prevent futile searching and also prevents obtaining infeasible solutions through the application of stochastic search methods, consequently dramatically improves search efficiency and solution quality. The dominant constraint of an economic dispatch problem is power balance. The operational constraints, such as generation limitations, ramp rate limits, prohibited operating zones (POZ), network loss are considered for practical operation. Firstly, in the EHM procedure, the output of generator is obtained with a lambda iteration method and without considering POZ and later in a genetic based algorithm this constraint is satisfied. To demonstrate its efficiency, feasibility and fastness, the EHM algorithm was applied to solve constrained ED problems of power systems with 6 and 15 units. The simulation results obtained from the EHM were compared to those achieved from previous literature in terms of solution quality and computational efficiency. Results reveal that the superiority of this method in both aspects of financial and CPU time. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Short-Term Multinodal Load Forecasting Using a Modified General Regression Neural Network

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Artificial neural networks for load flow and external equivalents studies

In this paper an artificial neural network (ANN) based methodology is proposed for (a) solving the basic load flow, (b) solving the load flow considering the reactive power limits of generation (PV) buses, (c) determining a good quality load flow starting point for ill-conditioned systems, and (d) computing static external equivalent circuits. An analysis of the input data required as well as the ANN architecture is presented. A multilayer perceptron trained with the Levenberg-Marquardt second order method is used. The proposed methodology was tested with the IEEE 30- and 57-bus, and an ill-conditioned 11-bus system. Normal operating conditions (base case) and several contingency situations including different load and generation scenarios have been considered. Simulation results show the excellent performance of the ANN for solving problems (a)-(d). (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Reduction of podocytes number in late diabetic alloxan nephropathy: prevention by glycemic control

OBJETIVO: Avaliar o número de podócitos e espessamento da membrana basal glomerular (MBG) em ratos diabéticos com e sem controle glicêmico com 6 e 12 meses da indução. MÉTODOS: 100 ratos Wistar com 200-300g compuseram 6 grupos: Normal (N6, N12 - 25 animais) Diabético (D6,D12 - 25 animais) e diabético tratado com insulina 1,8 a 3,0 U/Kg e acarbose misturada a ração (50g para cada 100g de ração) (DT6 e DT12 - 25 animais). Aloxana foi ministrada via endovenosa na dose de 42mg/Kg. Peso, ingestão hídrica e diurese de 24 horas e glicemia e glicosúria foram determinados antes da inoculação, 7 e 14 dias após e mensalmente. No 14ª dia foi iniciado o tratamento. Três grupos de animais (N6, D6 e DT6) foram sacrificados no 6° mês e três grupos (N12, D12 e DT12), no 12ª mês sendo o tecido renal processado para estudo à microscopia eletrônica. RESULTADOS: A glicemia dos animais DT6 e DT12 diferiram significativamente, dos ratos D6 e D12, e não diferiram dos grupos N6 e N12. O número de podócitos do grupo DT6 não diferiu de N6 e D6 (mediana=11); o número de podócitos de DT12 (mediana=11) diferiu de D12 (mediana=8) e não diferiu de N12 (mediana=11). O espessamento da MBG de D6 (0,18 micrômetros) foi menor que D12 (0,29 micrômetros); de DT6 (0,16 micrômetros) foi menor que D6 (0,18 micrômetros) e de DT12 (0,26 micrômetros) foi menor que D12 (0,29 micrômetros). CONCLUSÃO: O controle da hiperglicemia preveniu o espessamento da MBG na nefropatia diabética aloxânica precoce (6 meses) e tardia (12 meses), e a diminuição do número de podócitos.

Influence of glycemic control on fetal lung maturity in gestations affected by diabetes or mild hyperglycemia

Objective. To evaluate the influence of glycemic control on fetal lung maturity in pregnancies affected by diabetes or mild hyperglycemia. Design. Cross-sectional study. Setting. Level III maternity center. Population. A total of 187 pregnant women were submitted to routine amniocentesis for the assessment of fetal lung maturity up to 72 hours before delivery. Methods. Fetal lung maturity thresholds were: Clements-positive at a dilution of 0.5; OD(650) nm >= 0.15; and lamellar body count (LBC) >= 32,000/mu l. The relation of test results with adequate (<= 6.7 mmol/l) or poor (> 6.7 mmol/l) glycemic mean (GM) at term and at preterm was evaluated. Main outcome measure. Delay in fetal lung maturity when glycemic control was poor. Results. Glycemic control was adequate in 146 (78.1%) women. Clements maturity rates were higher at term (91.9%) than at preterm (64.7%) when GM <= 6.7 mmol/l (p < 0.001), but not when control was inadequate. LBC median was higher at term (99.0; 62.0-154.0) than at preterm (66.5; 40.5-108.25) (p = 0.009) when GM <= 6.7 mmol/l, while GM > 6.7 mmol/l did not lead to any difference between these rates at term or preterm. When glycemic control was adequate, OD(650) nm medians at term and at preterm were similar. However, when GM > 6.7 mmol/l, OD(650) nm median at term (0.29; 0.22-0.40) was higher than that observed at preterm (0.15; 0.12-0.18) (p < 0.001). Conclusions. Our results suggest that in term pregnancies routine amniocentesis for the assessment of fetal lung maturity should be abandoned. In preterm pregnancies, or when glycemic control is inadequate it is recommended.

Association Between Insulin Resistance, Glucose Intolerance, and Hypertension in Pregnancy

There is an association between insulin resistance, glucose intolerance, and essential hypertension, but the relation between insulin resistance, glucose intolerance, and hypertension diagnosed during pregnancy is not well understood. Transient hypertension of pregnancy, the new-onset nonproteinuric hypertension of late pregnancy, is associated with a high risk of later essential hypertension and glucose intolerance; thus, these conditions may have a similar pathophysiology. To assess the association between insulin resistance, glucose intolerance, essential hypertension, and subsequent development of proteinuric and nonproteinuric hypertension in pregnancy in women without underlying essential hypertension, we performed a prospective study comparing glucose (fasting, I and 2 hours postglucose load), insulin, glycosylated hemoglobin (HbA1c), high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C), and triglycerides levels on routine screening for gestational diabetes mellitus. Women who developed hypertension in pregnancy (n = 37) had higher glycemic levels (fasting, 1 and 2 hours postglucose load) on a 100-gram oral glucose loading test, although only the fasting values showed a statistical significance (p < 0.05), and a significantly higher frequency of abnormal glucose loading tests, two hours after glucose load (>= 140 mg/dL) (p < 0.05) than women who remained normotensive (n = 180). Glucose intolerance was common in women who developed both subtypes of hypertension, particularly preeclampsia. Women who developed hypertension had greater prepregnancy body mass index (p < 0.0001), higher frequency and intensity of acanthosis nigricans (p < 0.0001), and higher baseline systolic and diastolic blood pressures (p <= 0.0001 for both), although all subjects were normotensive at baseline by study design; they also presented lower levels of HDL-C (p < 0.05). However, after adjustment for these and other potential confounders, an abnormal glucose loading test remained a significant predictor of development of hypertension (p < 0.05) and, specifically, preeclampsia (p < 0.01). There was a trend toward higher insulin and homeostasis model assessment-insulin resistance (HOMA-IR) levels in women developing any type of hypertension. When comparing women that remained normotensive to term with those with transient hypertension and preeclampsia, the preeclamptic women were born with lower weight (p < 0.05) and shorter length (p < 0.005); at screening they were older (p < 0.005), showed higher frequency and intensity of acanthosis nigricans (p < 0.0001), had higher prepregnancy BMI (p < 0.0005), as well as higher baseline systolic and diastolic blood pressures (p <= 0.0001 for both). They also showed higher HOMA-IR levels that did not show a statistical significance. When glucose tolerance status was taken in account, an association was found between increasing indexes of hypertension (p < 0.05) and of HOMA-IR (p < 0.05) with the worsening of glucose tolerance. These results suggest that insulin resistance and relative glucose intolerance are associated with an increased risk of new-onset hypertension in pregnancy, particularly preeclampsia, and support the hypothesis that insulin resistance may play a role in the pathogenesis of this disorder.

Evaluation of Glycemic and Lipid Profile of Offspring of Diabetic Wistar Rats Treated with Malpighia emarginata Juice

Knowing that maternal diabetes is related to hyperglycemia and fetal hyperinsulinemia, which affect the lipid metabolism, the aim of this study was to evaluate the effects of Malpighia emarginata (acerola) juice on the glycemic and lipid profile of offspring of diabetic and nondiabetic Wistar rats. The adult offspring of non-diabetic dams and of dams with severe streptozotocin-induced diabetes were divided into groups: G1, offspring (of control dams) treated with water, G2, offspring (of diabetic dams) treated with water, G3, male offspring (of control dams) treated with acerola juice, and G4, male offspring (of diabetic dams) treated with acerola juice. The offspring of diabetic dams treated with acerola juice showed significantly decreased levels of glucose, cholesterol, triglycerides, and increased HDL-c. The use of acerola juice is a potential strategy to aid in the prevention of DM and dyslipidemia and its complications or to act as an auxiliary in the treatment of these diseases.

THE EFFECT of E-GLASS FIBERS and ACRYLIC RESIN THICKNESS on FRACTURE LOAD IN A SIMULATED IMPLANT-SUPPORTED OVERDENTURE PROSTHESIS

Statement of problem. Implant overdenture prostheses are prone to acrylic resin fracture because of space limitations around the implant overdenture components.Purpose. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the influence of E-glass fibers and acrylic resin thickness in resisting acrylic resin fracture around a simulated overdenture abutment.Material and methods. A model was developed to simulate the clinical situation of an implant overdenture abutment with varying acrylic resin thickness (1.5 or 3.0 mm) with or without E-glass fiber reinforcement. Forty-eight specimens with an underlying simulated abutment were divided into 4 groups (n=12): 1.5 mm acrylic resin without E-glass fibers identified as thin with no E-glass fiber mesh (TN-N); 1.5 mm acrylic resin with E-glass fibers identified as thin with E-glass fiber mesh (TN-F); 3.0 mm acrylic resin without E-glass fibers identified as thick without E-glass fiber mesh (TK-N); and 3.0 mm acrylic resin with E-glass fibers identified as thick with E-glass fiber mesh (TK-F). All specimens were submitted to a 3-point bending test and fracture loads (N) were analyzed with a 2-way ANOVA and Tukey's post hoc test (alpha=.05).Results. The results revealed significant differences in fracture load among the 4 groups, with significant effects from both thickness (P<.001) and inclusion of the mesh (P<.001). Results demonstrated no interaction between mesh and thickness (P=.690). The TN-N: 39 +/- 5 N; TN-F: 50 +/- 6.9 N; TK-N: 162 +/- 13 N; and TK-F: 193 +/- 21 N groups were all statistically different (P<.001).Conclusions. The fracture load of a processed, acrylic resin implant-supported overdenture can be significantly increased by the addition of E-glass fibers even when using thin acrylic resin sections. on a relative basis, the increase in fracture load was similar when adding E-glass fibers or increasing acrylic resin thickness. (J Prosthet Dent 2011;106:373-377)