Revisiting Youden's index as a useful measure of the misclassification error in meta-analysis of diagnostic studies

The paper considers meta-analysis of diagnostic studies that use a continuous Score for classification of study participants into healthy, or diseased groups. Classification is often done on the basis of a threshold or cut-off value, which might vary between Studies. Consequently, conventional meta-analysis methodology focusing solely on separate analysis of sensitivity and specificity might he confounded by a potentially unknown variation of the cut-off Value. To cope with this phenomena it is suggested to use, instead an overall estimate of the misclassification error previously suggested and used as Youden's index and; furthermore, it is argued that this index is less prone to between-study variation of cut-off values. A simple Mantel-Haenszel estimator as a summary measure of the overall misclassification error is suggested, which adjusts for a potential study effect. The measure of the misclassification error based on Youden's index is advantageous in that it easily allows an extension to a likelihood approach, which is then able to cope with unobserved heterogeneity via a nonparametric mixture model. All methods are illustrated at hand of an example on a diagnostic meta-analysis on duplex doppler ultrasound, with angiography as the standard for stroke prevention.

Developmental expression of myostatin in cardiomyocytes and its effect on foetal and neonatal rat cardiomyocyte proliferation

Objectives: Myostatin, a member of the transforming growth factor-beta (TGF-beta) family, plays a key role in skeletal muscle myogenesis by limiting hyperplastic and hypertrophic muscle growth. In cardiac muscle, myostatin has been shown to limit agonist-induced cardiac hypertrophic growth. However, its role in cardiac hyperplastic growth remains undetermined. The aim of this study was to characterise the expression of myostatin in developing myocardium, determine its effect on cardiomyocyte proliferation, and explore the signalling mechanisms affected by myostatin in dividing cardiomyocytes. Methods: We used quantitative PCR and Western blotting to study the expression of myostatin in cardiomyocytes isolated from rat myocardium at different developmental ages. We. determined the effect of recombinant myostatin on proliferation and cell viability in dividing cardiomyocytes in culture. We analysed myostatin's effect on cardiomyocyte cell cycle progression by flow cytometry and used Western blotting to explore the signalling mechanisms involved. Results: Myostatin is expressed differentially in cardiomyocytes during cardiac development such that increasing expression correlated with a low cardiomyocyte proliferation index. Proliferating foetal cardiomyocytes, from embryos at 18 days of gestation, expressed low levels of myostatin mRNA and protein, whereas isolated cardiomyocytes from postnatal day 10 hearts, wherein the majority of cardiomyocytes have lost their ability to proliferate, displayed a 6-fold increase in myostatin expression. Our in vitro studies demonstrated that myostatin inhibited proliferation of dividing foetal and neonatal cardiomyocytes. Flow cytometric analysis showed that this inhibition occurs mainly via a block in the G1-S phase transition of the cardiomyocyte cell cycle. Western blot analysis showed that part of the mechanism underpinning the inhibition of cardiomyocyte proliferation by myostatin involves phosphorylation of SMAD2 and altered expressions of the cell cycle proteins p21 and CDK2. Conclusions: We conclude that myostatin is an inhibitor of cardiomyocyte proliferation with the potential to limit cardiomyocyte hyperplastic growth by altering cardiac cell cycle progression. (c) 2007 European Society of Cardiology. Published by Elsevier B.V. All fights reserved.

Diagnosis of variability and trends in a global precipitation dataset using a physically motivated statistical model

A physically motivated statistical model is used to diagnose variability and trends in wintertime ( October - March) Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) pentad (5-day mean) precipitation. Quasi-geostrophic theory suggests that extratropical precipitation amounts should depend multiplicatively on the pressure gradient, saturation specific humidity, and the meridional temperature gradient. This physical insight has been used to guide the development of a suitable statistical model for precipitation using a mixture of generalized linear models: a logistic model for the binary occurrence of precipitation and a Gamma distribution model for the wet day precipitation amount. The statistical model allows for the investigation of the role of each factor in determining variations and long-term trends. Saturation specific humidity q(s) has a generally negative effect on global precipitation occurrence and with the tropical wet pentad precipitation amount, but has a positive relationship with the pentad precipitation amount at mid- and high latitudes. The North Atlantic Oscillation, a proxy for the meridional temperature gradient, is also found to have a statistically significant positive effect on precipitation over much of the Atlantic region. Residual time trends in wet pentad precipitation are extremely sensitive to the choice of the wet pentad threshold because of increasing trends in low-amplitude precipitation pentads; too low a choice of threshold can lead to a spurious decreasing trend in wet pentad precipitation amounts. However, for not too small thresholds, it is found that the meridional temperature gradient is an important factor for explaining part of the long-term trend in Atlantic precipitation.

Effect of plant density and initial crown size on growth, development and yield in strawberry cultivars Elsanta and Bolero

The effects of density (plant spacing) and initial plant size on vegetative growth, flowering and fruiting were studied in the strawberry cultivars Elsanta and Bolero in their first and second years of cropping. The influence of these factors on light use and dry-matter partitioning was investigated. The size of planting material in 'Elsanta' and 'Bolero' slightly affected plant growth and yield, but this effect was not consistent and radiation use efficiency (RUE) and harvest index were unaltered. Plant spacing did not significantly affect the early stages of crop growth, but was important in determining growth and yield later in the season, this effect being more significant in the second year of cropping. Plant growth and yield per plant increased as plant spacing increased from 20 to 30 cm in both 'Elsanta' and 'Bolero', but the highest harvest index and yield per square metre were obtained at the closest spacing. Increased plant spacing also resulted in a greater leaf area and leaf area index. However, light was used less efficiently resulting in a lower RUE and lower harvest index (HI).

Model for calculating the sustainable building index (SBI) in the kingdom of Bahrain

We have developed a model that allows players in the building and construction sector and the energy policy makers on energy strategies to be able to perceive the interest of investors in the kingdom of Bahrain in conducting Building Integrated Photovoltaic (BIPV) or Building integrated wind turbines (BIWT) projects, i.e. a partial sustainable or green buildings. The model allows the calculation of the Sustainable building index (SBI), which ranges from 0.1 (lowest) to 1.0 (highest); the higher figure the more chance for launching BIPV or BIWT. This model was tested in Bahrain and the calculated SBI was found 0.47. This means that an extensive effort must be made through policies on renewable energy, renewable energy education, and incentives to BIPV and BIWT projects, environmental awareness and promotion to clean and sustainable energy for building and construction projects. Our model can be used internationally to create a "Global SBI" database. The Sustainable building and construction initiative (SBCI), United Nation, can take the task for establishing such task using this model.

Development of a quantitative tool for the comparison of the prebiotic effect of dietary oligosaccharides

Aims: To develop a quantitative equation [prebiotic index ( PI)] to aid the analysis of prebiotic fermentation of commercially available and novel prebiotic carbohydrates in vitro, using previously published fermentation data. Methods: The PI equation is based on the changes in key bacterial groups during fermentation. The bacterial groups incorporated into this PI equation were bifidobacteria, lactobacilli, clostridia and bacteroides. The changes in these bacterial groups from previous studies were entered into the PI equation in order to determine a quantitative PI score. PI scores were than compared with the qualitative conclusions made in these publications. In general the PI scores agreed with the qualitative conclusions drawn and provided a quantitative measure. Conclusions: The PI allows the magnitude of prebiotic effects to be quantified rather than evaluations being solely qualitative. Significance and Impact of the Study: The PI equation may be of great use in quantifying prebiotic effects in vitro. It is expected that this will facilitate more rational food product development and the development of more potent prebiotics with activity at lower doses.

Effect of fecal water on an in vitro model of colonic mucosal barrier function

Fecal water (FW) has been shown to exert, in cultured cells, cytotoxic and genotoxic effects that have implications for colorectal cancer (CRC) risk. We have investigated a further biological activity of FW, namely, the ability to affect gap junctions in CACO2 cell monolayers as an index of mucosal barrier function, which is known to be disrupted in cancer. FW samples fi-om healthy, free-living, European subjects that were divided into two broad age groups, adult (40 +/- 9.7 yr; n = 53) and elderly (76 +/- 7.5 yr; n = 55) were tested for effects on gap junction using the transepithelial resistance (TER) assay. Overall, treatment of CACO2 cells with FW samples fi-om adults increased TER (+ 4 %), whereas FW from elderly subjects decreased TER (-5%); the difference between the two groups was significant (P < 0.05). We also measured several components of FW potentially associated with modulation of TER, namely, short-chain fatty acid (SCFA) and ammonia. SCFAs (propionic, acetic, and n-butyric) were significantly lower in the elderly population (-30%, -35%, and -21%, respectively, all P pound 0.01). We consider that FW modulation of in vitro epithelial barrier function is a potentially useful noninvasive biomarker, but it requires further validation to establish its relationship to CRC risk.

The effect of cleft lip and palate, and the timing of lip repair on mother-infant interactions and infant development

Background: Children with cleft lip and palate are at risk for psychological problems. Difficulties in mother-child interactions may be relevant, and could be affected by the timing of lip repair. Method: We assessed cognitive development, behaviour problems, and attachment in 94 infants with cleft lip (with and without cleft palate) and 96 non-affected control infants at 18 months; mother-infant interactions were assessed at two, six and 12 months. Index infants received either 'early', neonatal, lip repair, or 'late' repair (3-4 months). Results: Index infants did not differ from controls on measures of behaviour problems or attachment, regardless of timing of lip repair; however, infants having late lip repair performed worse on the Bayley Scales of Mental Development; the cognitive development of early repair infants was not impaired. Difficulties in early mother-infant interactions mediated the effects of late lip repair on infant cognitive outcome. Conclusions: Early interaction difficulties between mothers and infants having late repair of cleft lip are associated with poor cognitive functioning at 18 months. Interventions to facilitate mother-infant interactions prior to surgical lip repair should be explored.

Random number generation as an index of controlled processing

Random number generation (RNG) is a functionally complex process that is highly controlled and therefore dependent on Baddeley's central executive. This study addresses this issue by investigating whether key predictions from this framework are compatible with empirical data. In Experiment 1, the effect of increasing task demands by increasing the rate of the paced generation was comprehensively examined. As expected, faster rates affected performance negatively because central resources were increasingly depleted. Next, the effects of participants' exposure were manipulated in Experiment 2 by providing increasing amounts of practice on the task. There was no improvement over 10 practice trials, suggesting that the high level of strategic control required by the task was constant and not amenable to any automatization gain with repeated exposure. Together, the results demonstrate that RNG performance is a highly controlled and demanding process sensitive to additional demands on central resources (Experiment 1) and is unaffected by repeated performance or practice (Experiment 2). These features render the easily administered RNG task an ideal and robust index of executive function that is highly suitable for repeated clinical use.

Does repairing a cleft lip neonatally have any effect on the longer-term attractiveness of the repair?

Objective: To determine whether attractiveness and success of surgical outcome differ according to the timing of cleft lip repair. Design: Three experiments were conducted: (1) surgeons rated postoperative medical photographs of infants having either neonatal or 3-month lip repair; (2) lay panelists rated the same photographs; (3) lay panelists rated dynamic video displays of the infants made at 12 months. Normal comparison infants were also rated. The order of stimuli was randomized, and panelists were blind to timing of lip repair and the purposes of the study. Setting: Four U.K. regional centers for cleft lip and palate. Participants: Infants with isolated clefts of the lip, with and without palate. Intervention: Early lip repair was conducted at median age 4 days (inter-quartile range [IQR] = 4), and late repair at 104 days (IQR = 57). Main Outcome Measures: Ratings of surgical outcome (Experiment 1 only) and attractiveness (all experiments) on 5-point Likert scales. Results: In Experiment 1 success of surgical outcome was comparable for early and late repair groups (difference = -0.08; 95% confidence interval [CI] = -0.43 to 0.28; p = .66). In all three experiments, attractiveness ratings were comparable for the two groups. Differences were, respectively, 0.10 (95% CI = -2.3 to 0.44, p = .54); -0.11 (95% CI = -0.42 to -0.19, p = .54); and 0.08 (95% CI = -0.11 to 0.28, p =.41). Normal infants were rated more attractive than index infants (difference = 0.38; 95% CI = 0.24 to 0.52; p < .001). Conclusion: Neonatal repair for cleft of the lip confers no advantage over repair at 3 months in terms of perceived infant attractiveness or success of surgical outcome.

Effect of changing the amount and type of fat and carbohydrate on insulin sensitivity and cardiovascular risk: the RISCK (Reading, Imperial, Surrey, Cambridge, and Kings) trial

Background: Insulin sensitivity (Si) is improved by weight loss and exercise, but the effects of the replacement of saturated fatty acids (SFAs) with monounsaturated fatty acids (MUFAs) or carbohydrates of high glycemic index (HGI) or low glycemic index (LGI) are uncertain. Objective: We conducted a dietary intervention trial to study these effects in participants at risk of developing metabolic syndrome. Design: We conducted a 5-center, parallel design, randomized controlled trial [RISCK (Reading, Imperial, Surrey, Cambridge, and Kings)]. The primary and secondary outcomes were changes in Si (measured by using an intravenous glucose tolerance test) and cardiovascular risk factors. Measurements were made after 4 wk of a high-SFA and HGI (HS/HGI) diet and after a 24-wk intervention with HS/HGI (reference), high-MUFA and HGI (HM/HGI), HM and LGI (HM/LGI), low-fat and HGI (LF/HGI), and LF and LGI (LF/LGI) diets. Results: We analyzed data for 548 of 720 participants who were randomly assigned to treatment. The median Si was 2.7 × 10−4 mL · μU−1 · min−1 (interquartile range: 2.0, 4.2 × 10−4 mL · μU−1 · min−1), and unadjusted mean percentage changes (95% CIs) after 24 wk treatment (P = 0.13) were as follows: for the HS/HGI group, −4% (−12.7%, 5.3%); for the HM/HGI group, 2.1% (−5.8%, 10.7%); for the HM/LGI group, −3.5% (−10.6%, 4.3%); for the LF/HGI group, −8.6% (−15.4%, −1.1%); and for the LF/LGI group, 9.9% (2.4%, 18.0%). Total cholesterol (TC), LDL cholesterol, and apolipoprotein B concentrations decreased with SFA reduction. Decreases in TC and LDL-cholesterol concentrations were greater with LGI. Fat reduction lowered HDL cholesterol and apolipoprotein A1 and B concentrations. Conclusions: This study did not support the hypothesis that isoenergetic replacement of SFAs with MUFAs or carbohydrates has a favorable effect on Si. Lowering GI enhanced reductions in TC and LDL-cholesterol concentrations in subjects, with tentative evidence of improvements in Si in the LF-treatment group. This trial was registered at clinicaltrials.gov as ISRCTN29111298.

The indirect global warming potential and global temperature change potential due to methane oxidation

Methane is the second most important anthropogenic greenhouse gas in the atmosphere next to carbon dioxide. Its global warming potential (GWP) for a time horizon of 100 years is 25, which makes it an attractive target for climate mitigation policies. Although the methane GWP traditionally includes the methane indirect effects on the concentrations of ozone and stratospheric water vapour, it does not take into account the production of carbon dioxide from methane oxidation. We argue here that this CO2-induced effect should be included for fossil sources of methane, which results in slightly larger GWP values for all time horizons. If the global temperature change potential is used as an alternative climate metric, then the impact of the CO2-induced effect is proportionally much larger. We also discuss what the correction term should be for methane from anthropogenic biogenic sources.

The effect of cleft lip on socio-emotional functioning in school-aged children

Background: Children with cleft lip are known to be at raised risk for socio-emotional difficulties, but the nature of these problems and their causes are incompletely understood; longitudinal studies are required that include comprehensive assessment of child functioning, and consideration of developmental mechanisms. Method: Children with cleft lip (with and without cleft palate) (N = 93) and controls (N = 77), previously studied through infancy, were followed up at 7 years, and their socio-emotional functioning assessed using teacher and maternal reports, observations of social interactions, and child social representations (doll play). Direct and moderating effects of infant attachment and current parenting were investigated, as was the role of child communication difficulties and attractiveness. Results: Children with clefts had raised rates of teacher-reported social problems, and anxious and withdrawn-depressed behaviour; direct observations and child representations also revealed difficulties in social relationships. Child communication problems largely accounted for these effects, especially in children with cleft palate as well as cleft lip. Insecure attachment contributed to risk in both index and control groups, and a poorer current parenting environment exacerbated the difficulties of those with clefts. Conclusions: Children with clefts are at raised risk for socio-emotional difficulties in the school years; clinical interventions should focus on communication problems and supporting parenting; specific interventions around the transition to school may be required. More generally, the findings reflect the importance of communication skills for children’s peer relations.

Simulating the impacts of global warming on wheat in China using a large area crop model

Temperature is one of the most prominent environmental factors that determine plant growth, devel- opment, and yield. Cool and moist conditions are most favorable for wheat. Wheat is likely to be highly vulnerable to further warming because currently the temperature is already close to or above optimum. In this study, the impacts of warming and extreme high temperature stress on wheat yield over China were investigated by using the general large area model (GLAM) for annual crops. The results showed that each 1±C rise in daily mean temperature would reduce the average wheat yield in China by about 4.6%{5.7% mainly due to the shorter growth duration, except for a small increase in yield at some grid cells. When the maximum temperature exceeded 30.5±C, the simulated grain-set fraction declined from 1 at 30.5±C to close to 0 at about 36±C. When the total grain-set was lower than the critical fractional grain-set (0.575{0.6), harvest index and potential grain yield were reduced. In order to reduce the negative impacts of warming, it is crucial to take serious actions to adapt to the climate change, for example, by shifting sowing date, adjusting crop distribution and structure, breeding heat-resistant varieties, and improving the monitoring, forecasting, and early warning of extreme climate events.