Risk and price in the bidding process of contractors

Formal and analytical risk models prescribe how risk should be incorporated in construction bids. However, the actual process of how contractors and their clients negotiate and agree on price is complex, and not clearly articulated in the literature. Using participant observation, the entire tender process was shadowed in two leading UK construction firms. This was compared to propositions in analytical models and significant differences were found. 670 hours of work observed in both firms revealed three stages of the bidding process. Bidding activities were categorized and their extent estimated as deskwork (32%), calculations (19%), meetings (14%), documents (13%), off-days (11%), conversations (7%), correspondence (3%) and travel (1%). Risk allowances of 1-2% were priced in some bids and three tiers of risk apportionment in bids were identified. However, priced risks may sometimes be excluded from the final bidding price to enhance competitiveness. Thus, although risk apportionment affects a contractor’s pricing strategy, other complex, microeconomic factors also affect price. Instead of pricing in contingencies, risk was priced mostly through contractual rather than price mechanisms, to reflect commercial imperatives. The findings explain why some assumptions underpinning analytical models may not be sustainable in practice and why what actually happens in practice is important for those who seek to model the pricing of construction bids.

Commuting, CO2 and the location of offices

This paper investigates the extent to which office activity contributes to travel-related CO2 emission. Using ‘end-user’ figures[1], travel accounts for 32% of UK CO2 emission (Commission for Integrated Transport, 2007) and commuting and business travel accounts for a fifth of transport-related CO2 emissions, equating to 6.4% of total UK emissions (Building Research Establishment, 2000). Figures from the Department for Transport (2006) report that 70% of commuting trips were made by car, accounting for 73% of all commuting miles travelled. In assessing the environmental performance of an office building, the paper questions whether commuting and business travel-related CO2 emission is being properly assessed. For example, are office buildings in locations that are easily accessible by public transport being sufficiently rewarded? The de facto method for assessing the environmental performance of office buildings in the UK is the Building Research Establishment’s Environmental Assessment Method (BREEAM). Using data for Bristol, this paper examines firstly whether BREEAM places sufficient weight on travel-related CO2 emission in comparison with building operation-related CO2 emission, and secondly whether the methodology for assigning credits for travel-related CO2 emission efficiency is capable of discerning intra-urban differences in location such as city centre and out-of-town. The results show that, despite CO2 emission per worker from building operation and travel being comparable, there is a substantial difference in the credit-weighting allocated to each. Under the current version of BREEAM for offices, only a maximum of 4% of the available credits can be awarded for ensuring the office location is environmentally sustainable. The results also show that all locations within the established city centre of Bristol will receive maximum BREEAM credits. Given the parameters of the test there is little to distinguish one city centre location from another and out of town only one office location receives any credits. It would appear from these results that the assessment method is not able to discern subtle differences in the sustainability of office locations

Utopia and education in the seventeenth century: Bacon’s 'Salomon’s House' and its influence

New Worlds Reflected provides a significant contribution both to the history of utopian literature and travel, and to the wider cultural and intellectual history of the time, assembling original essays from scholars interested in representations of the globe and new and ideal worlds in the period from the sixteenth to eighteenth centuries, and in the imaginative reciprocal responsiveness of utopian and travel writing. Chapter 7 looks at the influence of Salomon’s House in Francis Bacon’s New Atlantis (1627) on later seventeenth-century educational utopias.

Drama, disability and education

This book explores the question, what can society learn about disability through the way it is portrayed in TV, films and plays? The text examines and analyses the way disability is portrayed in drama, and how that portrayal may be interpreted by young audiences. Investigating how disabilities have been represented on stage in the past, this book discusses what may be inferred from plays which feature disabled characters through a variety of critical approaches. The book provides an annotated chronology that traces the history of plays that have featured disabled characters. It analyses how disability is used as a dramatic metaphor and considers the ethics of dramatising a disabled character. Critical accounts of units of work in mainstream school seeking to raise disability awareness through engagement with practical drama and dramatic texts are given along with detailed discussions of the issues underpinning two previously unpublished playscripts written for young audiences and description and evaluation of a drama project in a special school. In tackling questions and issues that have not, hitherto, been well covered, Drama, Disability and Education will be of enormous interest to drama students, teachers, researchers and pedagogues who work with disabled people or are concerned with raising awareness and understanding of disability.

Empirical test of an agricultural landscape model: the importance of farmer preference for risk aversion and crop complexity

Developing models to predict the effects of social and economic change on agricultural landscapes is an important challenge. Model development often involves making decisions about which aspects of the system require detailed description and which are reasonably insensitive to the assumptions. However, important components of the system are often left out because parameter estimates are unavailable. In particular, measurements of the relative influence of different objectives, such as risk, environmental management, on farmer decision making, have proven difficult to quantify. We describe a model that can make predictions of land use on the basis of profit alone or with the inclusion of explicit additional objectives. Importantly, our model is specifically designed to use parameter estimates for additional objectives obtained via farmer interviews. By statistically comparing the outputs of this model with a large farm-level land-use data set, we show that cropping patterns in the United Kingdom contain a significant contribution from farmer’s preference for objectives other than profit. In particular, we found that risk aversion had an effect on the accuracy of model predictions, whereas preference for a particular number of crops grown was less important. While nonprofit objectives have frequently been identified as factors in farmers’ decision making, our results take this analysis further by demonstrating the relationship between these preferences and actual cropping patterns.

The timing and societal synchronisation of energy demand

It is increasingly important to know about when energy is used in the home, at work and on the move. Issues of time and timing have not featured strongly in energy policy analysis and in modelling, much of which has focused on estimating and reducing total average annual demand per capita. If smarter ways of balancing supply and demand are to take hold, and if we are to make better use of decarbonised forms of supply, it is essential to understand and intervene in patterns of societal synchronisation. This calls for detailed knowledge of when, and on what occasions many people engage in the same activities at the same time, of how such patterns are changing, and of how might they be shaped. In addition, the impact of smart meters and controls partly depends on whether there is, in fact scope for shifting the timing of what people do, and for changing the rhythm of the day. Is the scheduling of daily life an arena that policy can influence, and if so how? The DEMAND Centre has been linking time use, energy consumption and travel diary data as a means of addressing these questions and in this working paper we present some of the issues and results arising from that exercise.

On the relationship between decadal buoyancy anomalies and variability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation

Owing to the role of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) in ocean heat transport, AMOC variability is thought to play a role in climate variability on a wide range of time scales. This paper focuses on the potential role of the AMOC in climate variability on decadal time scales. Coupled and ocean-only general circulation models run in idealized geometries are utilized to study the relationships between decadal AMOC and buoyancy variability and determine whether the AMOC plays an active role in setting sea surface temperature on decadal time scales.DecadalAMOC variability is related to changes in the buoyancy field along the western boundary according to the thermal wind relation. Buoyancy anomalies originate in the upper ocean of the subpolar gyre and travel westward as baroclinic Rossby waves. When the buoyancy anomalies strike the western boundary, they are advected southward by the deep western boundary current, leading to latitudinally coherent AMOC variability. The AMOC is observed to respond passively to decadal buoyancy anomalies: although variability of the AMOC leads to meridional ocean heat transport anomalies, these transports are not responsible for creating the buoyancy anomalies in the subpolar gyre that drive AMOC variability.

Pensamos que somos historia porque sabemos que somos historia: context, self and self-construction in women's testimonial writing from revolutionary Cuba

This article presents a group of women-authored testimonial texts published between 1959–1989 in revolutionary Cuba. Despite the recent scholarly debates within Latin American Cultural Studies regarding Latin American testimonio, these texts have received little or no critical or theoretical attention within or outside Cuba. The article therefore starts by situating them within the specific context of revolutionary culture, especially with reference to questions of gender, genre and publication. Having established that the texts as a whole privilege the collective revolutionary context and revolutionary experience over gendered or generic aspects, the seven texts are then grouped under a more specific contextual category, as narratives of voluntary work (participation and observation), in order to provide a clearer structure for their description and analysis. Each of the texts is then described within its sub-group, and the article ends by indicating how such texts challenge testimonio paradigms by positing a relational notion of subjectivity.

Noticing, exploring and practicing: functional grammar in the ESL classroom

This book introduces six general procedures for teaching grammar to learners of English as a second language. The procedures are designed to encourage learners to notice, explore and practice grammar in context. Each description and discussion of a procedure is followed by two sample lesson plans together with sample texts and worksheets. Teachers can either use these 'as is' or adapt them for their own students. The lessons are suitable for a wide range of students from beginning learners to advanced learners. A final chapter provides examples of lessons in which several procedures are combined. In addition, before each sample lesson plan, the grammar focus of the lesson is briefly explained for the teacher. These procedures all illustrate how grammar can be taught through texts, and they are based on an understanding of the latest research on pedagogical grammar and the role of language awareness and discovery in second language learning and provide teachers with principles they can apply in developing their own teaching materials and activities. The grammar explanations preceding each teaching plan provide a fresh look at English grammar drawing on work in systemic functional linguistics.

Enhanced classification of Chagas serologic results and epidemiologic characteristics of seropositive donors at three large blood centers in Brazil

BACKGROUND: A major problem in Chagas disease donor screening is the high frequency of samples with inconclusive results. The objective of this study was to describe patterns of serologic results among donors to the three Brazilian REDS-II blood centers and correlate with epidemiologic characteristics. STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS: The centers screened donor samples with one Trypanosoma cruzi lysate enzyme immunoassay (EIA). EIA-reactive samples were tested with a second lysate EIA, a recombinant-antigen based EIA, and an immunfluorescence assay. Based on the serologic results, samples were classified as confirmed positive (CP), probable positive (PP), possible other parasitic infection (POPI), and false positive (FP). RESULTS: In 2007 to 2008, a total of 877 of 615,433 donations were discarded due to Chagas assay reactivity. The prevalences (95% confidence intervals [CIs]) among first-time donors for CP, PP, POPI, and FP patterns were 114 (99-129), 26 (19-34), 10 (5-14), and 96 (82-110) per 100,000 donations, respectively. CP and PP had similar patterns of prevalence when analyzed by age, sex, education, and location, suggesting that PP cases represent true T. cruzi infections; in contrast the demographics of donors with POPI were distinct and likely unrelated to Chagas disease. No CP cases were detected among 218,514 repeat donors followed for a total of 718,187 person-years. CONCLUSION: We have proposed a classification algorithm that may have practical importance for donor counseling and epidemiologic analyses of T. cruzi-seroreactive donors. The absence of incident T. cruzi infections is reassuring with respect to risk of window phase infections within Brazil and travel-related infections in nonendemic countries such as the United States.

Analysis of Structure and Tendencies of Qualified Immigrant Workforce on the Swedish Labor Market

The purpose of this paper is to make quantitative and qualitative analysis of foreign citizens who may participate on the Swedish labor market (in text refers to as ‘immigrants’). This research covers the period 1973-2005 and gives prediction figures of immigrant population, age and gender structure, and education attainment in 2010. To cope with data regarding immigrants from different countries, the population was divided into six groups. The main chapter is divided into two parts. The first part specifies division of immigrants into groups by country of origin according to geographical, ethnical, economical and historical criteria. Brief characteristics and geographic position, dynamic and structure description were given for each group; historical review explain rapid changes in immigrant population. Statistical models for description and estimation future population were given. The second part specifies education and qualification level of the immigrants according to international and Swedish standards. Models for estimating age and gender structure, level of education and professional orientation of immigrants in different groups are given. Inferences were made regarding ethnic, gender and education structure of immigrants; the distribution of immigrants among Swedish counties is given. Discussion part presents the results of the research, gives perspectives for the future brief evaluation of the role of immigrants on the Swedish labor market.

Additional morphological characters and a new host for Aceria gymnoscuta Navia & Flechtmann (Acari, Eriophyidae)

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Spatial relationships between soil attributes and corn yield in no-tillage system

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)