Advances in application of climate prediction in agriculture

Agricultural ecosystems and their associated business and government systems are diverse and varied. They range from farms, to input supply businesses, to marketing and government policy systems, among others. These systems are dynamic and responsive to fluctuations in climate. Skill in climate prediction offers considerable opportunities to managers via its potential to realise system improvements (i.e. increased food production and profit and/or reduced risks). Realising these opportunities, however, is not straightforward as the forecasting skill is imperfect and approaches to applying the existing skill to management issues have not been developed and tested extensively. While there has been much written about impacts of climate variability, there has been relatively little done in relation to applying knowledge of climate predictions to modify actions ahead of likely impacts. However, a considerable body of effort in various parts of the world is now being focused on this issue of applying climate predictions to improve agricultural systems. In this paper, we outline the basis for climate prediction, with emphasis on the El Nino-Southern Oscillation phenomenon, and catalogue experiences at field, national and global scales in applying climate predictions to agriculture. These diverse experiences are synthesised to derive general lessons about approaches to applying climate prediction in agriculture. The case studies have been selected to represent a diversity of agricultural systems and scales of operation. They also represent the on-going activities of some of the key research and development groups in this field around the world. The case studies include applications at field/farm scale to dryland cropping systems in Australia, Zimbabwe, and Argentina. This spectrum covers resource-rich and resource-poor farming with motivations ranging from profit to food security. At national and global scale we consider possible applications of climate prediction in commodity forecasting (wheat in Australia) and examine implications on global wheat trade and price associated with global consequences of climate prediction. In cataloguing these experiences we note some general lessons. Foremost is the value of an interdisciplinary systems approach in connecting disciplinary Knowledge in a manner most suited to decision-makers. This approach often includes scenario analysis based oil simulation with credible models as a key aspect of the learning process. Interaction among researchers, analysts and decision-makers is vital in the development of effective applications all of the players learn. Issues associated with balance between information demand and supply as well as appreciation of awareness limitations of decision-makers, analysts, and scientists are highlighted. It is argued that understanding and communicating decision risks is one of the keys to successful applications of climate prediction. We consider that advances of the future will be made by better connecting agricultural scientists and practitioners with the science of climate prediction. Professions involved in decision making must take a proactive role in the development of climate forecasts if the design and use of climate predictions are to reach their full potential. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

A general model for host plant selection in phytophagous insects

We develop a general theoretical framework for exploring the host plant selection behaviour of herbivorous insects. This model can be used to address a number of questions, including the evolution of specialists, generalists, preference hierarchies, and learning. We use our model to: (i) demonstrate the consequences of the extent to which the reproductive success of a foraging female is limited by the rate at which they find host plants (host limitation) or the number of eggs they carry (egg limitation); (ii) emphasize the different consequences of variation in behaviour before and after landing on (locating) a host (termed pre- and post-alighting, respectively); (iii) show that, in contrast to previous predictions, learning can be favoured in post-alighting behaviour-in particular, individuals can be selected to concentrate oviposition on an abundant low-quality host, whilst ignoring a rare higher-quality host; (iv) emphasize the importance of interactions between mechanisms in favouring specialization or learning. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd.

Efficient simple groups

We prove that the simple group L-3(5) which has order 372000 is efficient by providing an efficient presentation for it. This leaves one simple group with order less than one million, S-4(4) which has order 979200, whose efficiency or otherwise remains to be determined.

Disability focus groups: A strategy for including people with disability in parishes

This paper reports the findings of an exploratory qualitative study examining parish awareness of the need to include individuals with disability in genuine and meaningful ways. Based on the interviews of over thirty persons, including people with disability, parents, parish workers, volunteers and human service workers within church agencies in the Catholic Archdiocese of Brisbane, Australia, the authors devised a process for including individuals in parishes. This process, known as a Disability Focus Group, was then implemented in one parish as a pilot study. The outcomes of the pilot are discussed.

Social work, stress and burnout: A review

Stress and burnout for health care professionals have received increasing attention in the literature. Significant administrative, societal and political changes have impacted on the role of workers and the responsibilities they are expected to assume. Most writers suggest that social work is a highly stressful occupation, with stress deriving in particular from role conflict between client advocacy and meeting agency needs. This article reviewed the social work literature with two questions in mind: Are social workers subject to greater stress than other health professionals? What factors contribute to stress and burnout among social workers? We found that most of the literature was either anecdotal or compared social worker stress with general population norms rather than with stress levels of workers in comparable professions. Such empirical research as is available suggests that social workers may experience higher levels of stress and resulting burnout than comparable occupational groups. Factors identified as contributing to stress and burnout included the nature of social work practice, especially tension between philosophy and work demands and the organization of the work environment. There was some evidence that supervision and team support are protective factors.

Guidelines for the treatment of postmenopausal osteoporosis for general practitioners

BACKGROUND: Osteoporosis Australia has been committed to the education of general practitioners and the community with a series of updated guidelines on the management of osteoporosis. Since the last series was published in Australian Family Physician (August 2000), there have been further advances in our understanding of the treatments involved in both prevention of bone loss and the management of established osteoporosis. OBJECTIVE: This article represents updated guidelines for the treatment of postmenopausal osteoporosis to assist GPs identify those women at risk and to review current treatment strategies. DISCUSSION: Osteoporosis and its associated problems are major health concerns in Australia, especially with an aging population. While important principles of management are still considered to be maximising peak bone mass and preventing postmenopausal bone loss, new clinical trial data about drugs such as the bisphosphonates, raloxifene and oestrogen have recently become available and the relative role of various agents is gradually becoming clearer. The use of long term hormone replacement therapy has mixed risks and benefits that requires individual patient counselling.

Relationships of extant lower Brachycera (Diptera): a quantitative synthesis of morphological characters

With over 80 000 described species, Brachycera represent one of the most diverse clades of organisms with a Mesozoic origin. Larvae of the majority of early lineages are detritivores or carnivores. However, Brachycera are ecologically innovative and they now employ a diverse range of feeding strategies. Brachyceran relationships have been the subject of numerous qualitative analyses using morphological characters. These analyses are often based on characters from one or a few character systems and general agreement on relationships has been elusive. In order to understand the evolution of basal brachyceran lineages, 101 discrete morphological characters were scored and compiled into a single data set. Terminals were scored at the family level, and the data set includes characters from larvae, pupae and adults, internal and external morphology, and male and female terminalia. The results show that all infraorders of Brachycera are monophyletic, but there is little evidence for relationships between the infraorders. Stratiomyomorpha, Tabanomorpha, and Xylophagomorpha together form the sister group to Muscomorpha. Xylophagomorpha and Tabanomorpha are sister groups. Within Muscomorpha, the paraphyletic Nemestrinoidea form the two most basal lineages. There is weak evidence for the monophyly of Asiloidea, and Hilarimorphidae appear to be more closely related to Eremoneura than other muscomorphs. Apsilocephalidae, Scenopinidae and Therevidae form a clade of Asiloidea. This phylogenetic evidence is consistent with the contemporaneous differentiation of the main brachyceran lineages in the early Jurassic. The first major radiation of Muscomorpha were asiloids and they may have diversified in response to the radiation of angiosperms in the early Cretaceous.

Being attuned to intergroup differences in mergers: The role of aligned leaders for low-status groups

The present research focused on responses of low-status group members to a merger with a high-status group. A study was conducted (N = 153) in which the alignment of the leader for the merged group (ingroup vs. outgroup) and leader behavior (equality, outgroup favoritism, ingroup favoritism, complementarity) were manipulated. The authors predicted that the leader, by his or her behavior, would play an important role in defining the new relationship between premerger groups. Overall, low-status ingroup leaders were evaluated more positively than high-status outgroup leaders. Ingroup leaders were evaluated more favorably and were more likely to engender a common identity in the merged group than were outgroup leaders when leaders behaved in an ingroup-favoring or complementary fashion. In contrast, evaluations of ingroup and outgroup leaders did not differ when the leader stressed equality or was outgroup favoring. The findings demonstrate the important role leaders can play in accentuating or de-emphasizing premerger status differences.

The expression of conflict in computer-mediated and face-to-face groups

This study integrated the research streams of computer-mediated communication (CMC) and group conflict by comparing the expression of different types of conflict in CMC groups and face-to face (FTF) groups over time. The main aim of the study was to compare the cues-filtered-out approach against the social information processing theory A laboratory study was conducted with 39 groups (19 CMC and 20 FTF) in which members were required to work together over three sessions. The frequencies of task, process, and relationship conflict were analyzed. Findings supported the social information processing theory. There was more process and relationship conflict in CMC groups compared to FTF groups on Day 1. However, this difference disappeared on Days 2 and 3. There was no difference between CMC and FTF groups in the amount of task conflict expressed on any day.

The competence of mental health occupational therapists

This research sought to investigate the self-perceived competence of mental health occupational therapists in Queensland. The research is a post-hoc analysis of survey results that formed part of the 1995 Professional Development Strategy for Adult Mental Health Services for the Queensland Health Mental Health Unit. A sample of 55 occupational therapists was compared with other professionals in relation to both general self-efficacy and efficacy in specific competencies. The devised scale for measuring self-efficacy was found to have a high level of internal reliability. The results indicated that the general self-perceived competence of occupational therapists for the whole sample was comparable to that of other professional groups, but that in the community-based sample it was significantly higher than that of social workers or nurses. In addition, occupational therapists in community settings had significantly higher general self-perceived competence than occupational therapists in hospital locations. Greater length of experience in mental health was strongly predictive of higher levels of competence for occupational therapists than for other professionals. The results suggest that occupational therapists have adapted well to the demands of multidisciplinary community practice. The possible reasons for these results, and the implications for competency-based recruitment and training, are presented.