An imprecise fuzzy risk approach for water quality management of a river system

Uncertainty plays an important role in water quality management problems. The major sources of uncertainty in a water quality management problem are the random nature of hydrologic variables and imprecision (fuzziness) associated with goals of the dischargers and pollution control agencies (PCA). Many Waste Load Allocation (WLA)problems are solved by considering these two sources of uncertainty. Apart from randomness and fuzziness, missing data in the time series of a hydrologic variable may result in additional uncertainty due to partial ignorance. These uncertainties render the input parameters as imprecise parameters in water quality decision making. In this paper an Imprecise Fuzzy Waste Load Allocation Model (IFWLAM) is developed for water quality management of a river system subject to uncertainty arising from partial ignorance. In a WLA problem, both randomness and imprecision can be addressed simultaneously by fuzzy risk of low water quality. A methodology is developed for the computation of imprecise fuzzy risk of low water quality, when the parameters are characterized by uncertainty due to partial ignorance. A Monte-Carlo simulation is performed to evaluate the imprecise fuzzy risk of low water quality by considering the input variables as imprecise. Fuzzy multiobjective optimization is used to formulate the multiobjective model. The model developed is based on a fuzzy multiobjective optimization problem with max-min as the operator. This usually does not result in a unique solution but gives multiple solutions. Two optimization models are developed to capture all the decision alternatives or multiple solutions. The objective of the two optimization models is to obtain a range of fractional removal levels for the dischargers, such that the resultant fuzzy risk will be within acceptable limits. Specification of a range for fractional removal levels enhances flexibility in decision making. The methodology is demonstrated with a case study of the Tunga-Bhadra river system in India.

Application of an evolutionary fuzzy system for the estimation of workforce deployment and cross-training in an assembly environment

Owing to the increased customer demands for make-to-order products and smaller product life-cycles, today assembly lines are designed to ensure a quick switch-over from one product model to another for companies' survival in market place. The complexity associated with the decisions pertaining to the type of training and number of workers and their exposition to the different tasks especially in the current era of customized production is a serious problem that the managers and the HRD gurus are facing in industry. This paper aims to determine the amount of cross-training and dynamic deployment policy caused by workforce flexibility for a make-to-order assembly. The aforementioned issues have been dealt with by adopting the concept of evolutionary fuzzy system because of the linguistic nature of the attributes associated with product variety and task complexity. A fuzzy system-based methodology is proposed to determine the amount of cross-training and dynamic deployment policy. The proposed methodology is tested on 10 sample products of varying complexities and the results obtained are in line with the conclusions drawn by previous researchers.

Fuzzy data envelopment analysis for performance evaluation of an irrigation system

Sixteen irrigation subsystems of the Mahi Bajaj Sagar Project, Rajasthan, India, are evaluated and selection of the most suitable/best is made using data envelopment analysis (DEA) in both deterministic and fuzzy environments. Seven performance-related indicators, namely, land development works (LDW), timely supply of inputs (TSI), conjunctive use of water resources (CUW), participation of farmers (PF), environmental conservation (EC), economic impact (EI) and crop productivity (CPR) are considered. Of the seven, LDW, TSI, CUW, PF and EC are considered inputs, whereas CPR and EI are considered outputs for DEA modelling purposes. Spearman rank correlation coefficient values are also computed for various scenarios. It is concluded that DEA in both deterministic and fuzzy environments is useful for the present problem. However, the outcome of fuzzy DEA may be explored for further analysis due to its simple, effective data and discrimination handling procedure. It is inferred that the present study can be explored for similar situations with suitable modifications.

Síntese de árvores de padrões Fuzzy através de Programação Genética Cartesiana.

Esta dissertação apresenta um sistema de indução de classificadores fuzzy. Ao invés de utilizar a abordagem tradicional de sistemas fuzzy baseados em regras, foi utilizado o modelo de Árvore de Padrões Fuzzy(APF), que é um modelo hierárquico, com uma estrutura baseada em árvores que possuem como nós internos operadores lógicos fuzzy e as folhas são compostas pela associação de termos fuzzy com os atributos de entrada. O classificador foi obtido sintetizando uma árvore para cada classe, esta árvore será uma descrição lógica da classe o que permite analisar e interpretar como é feita a classificação. O método de aprendizado originalmente concebido para a APF foi substituído pela Programação Genética Cartesiana com o intuito de explorar melhor o espaço de busca. O classificador APF foi comparado com as Máquinas de Vetores de Suporte, K-Vizinhos mais próximos, florestas aleatórias e outros métodos Fuzzy-Genéticos em diversas bases de dados do UCI Machine Learning Repository e observou-se que o classificador APF apresenta resultados competitivos. Ele também foi comparado com o método de aprendizado original e obteve resultados comparáveis com árvores mais compactas e com um menor número de avaliações.

FRANTIC - A system for inducing accurate and comprehensible fuzzy rules

M. Galea and Q. Shen. FRANTIC - A system for inducing accurate and comprehensible fuzzy rules. Proceedings of the 2004 UK Workshop on Computational Intelligence, pages 136-143.

Fuzzy ART: Fast Stable Learning and Categorization of Analog Patterns by an Adaptive Resonance System

A Fuzzy ART model capable of rapid stable learning of recognition categories in response to arbitrary sequences of analog or binary input patterns is described. Fuzzy ART incorporates computations from fuzzy set theory into the ART 1 neural network, which learns to categorize only binary input patterns. The generalization to learning both analog and binary input patterns is achieved by replacing appearances of the intersection operator (n) in AHT 1 by the MIN operator (Λ) of fuzzy set theory. The MIN operator reduces to the intersection operator in the binary case. Category proliferation is prevented by normalizing input vectors at a preprocessing stage. A normalization procedure called complement coding leads to a symmetric theory in which the MIN operator (Λ) and the MAX operator (v) of fuzzy set theory play complementary roles. Complement coding uses on-cells and off-cells to represent the input pattern, and preserves individual feature amplitudes while normalizing the total on-cell/off-cell vector. Learning is stable because all adaptive weights can only decrease in time. Decreasing weights correspond to increasing sizes of category "boxes". Smaller vigilance values lead to larger category boxes. Learning stops when the input space is covered by boxes. With fast learning and a finite input set of arbitrary size and composition, learning stabilizes after just one presentation of each input pattern. A fast-commit slow-recode option combines fast learning with a forgetting rule that buffers system memory against noise. Using this option, rare events can be rapidly learned, yet previously learned memories are not rapidly erased in response to statistically unreliable input fluctuations.

Robust fuzzy Gustafson-Kessel clustering for nonlinear system identification

This paper deals with Takagi-Sugeno (TS) fuzzy model identification of nonlinear systems using fuzzy clustering. In particular, an extended fuzzy Gustafson-Kessel (EGK) clustering algorithm, using robust competitive agglomeration (RCA), is developed for automatically constructing a TS fuzzy model from system input-output data. The EGK algorithm can automatically determine the 'optimal' number of clusters from the training data set. It is shown that the EGK approach is relatively insensitive to initialization and is less susceptible to local minima, a benefit derived from its agglomerate property. This issue is often overlooked in the current literature on nonlinear identification using conventional fuzzy clustering. Furthermore, the robust statistical concepts underlying the EGK algorithm help to alleviate the difficulty of cluster identification in the construction of a TS fuzzy model from noisy training data. A new hybrid identification strategy is then formulated, which combines the EGK algorithm with a locally weighted, least-squares method for the estimation of local sub-model parameters. The efficacy of this new approach is demonstrated through function approximation examples and also by application to the identification of an automatic voltage regulation (AVR) loop for a simulated 3 kVA laboratory micro-machine system.

Ethnic Competition and the logic of party system transformation

This article adapts and expands a recent model of ethnic competition by exploring its implications over a long period spanning crucial stages in the modernisation of the political system. It illustrates the model by reference to developments in Northern Ireland since its modern party system was launched in the 1880s. This offers an exceptionally clear example of the interaction of central elements of the model: the initial bedding down of a system of bipartisan ethnic competition, with two parties having a remarkable capacity to resist ethnic outbidding; the fragmentation of this system following the introduction of a set of major institutional forms that facilitated ethnic outbidding; and the continuing resilience of ethnically based parties in warding off challenges from groups seeking to prioritise other political dimensions. The model's implications are tested against a comprehensive collection of ecological and survey data.

An Efficient LS-SVM-Based Method for Fuzzy System Construction

This paper proposes an efficient learning mechanism to build fuzzy rule-based systems through the construction of sparse least-squares support vector machines (LS-SVMs). In addition to the significantly reduced computational complexity in model training, the resultant LS-SVM-based fuzzy system is sparser while offers satisfactory generalization capability over unseen data. It is well known that the LS-SVMs have their computational advantage over conventional SVMs in the model training process; however, the model sparseness is lost, which is the main drawback of LS-SVMs. This is an open problem for the LS-SVMs. To tackle the nonsparseness issue, a new regression alternative to the Lagrangian solution for the LS-SVM is first presented. A novel efficient learning mechanism is then proposed in this paper to extract a sparse set of support vectors for generating fuzzy IF-THEN rules. This novel mechanism works in a stepwise subset selection manner, including a forward expansion phase and a backward exclusion phase in each selection step. The implementation of the algorithm is computationally very efficient due to the introduction of a few key techniques to avoid the matrix inverse operations to accelerate the training process. The computational efficiency is also confirmed by detailed computational complexity analysis. As a result, the proposed approach is not only able to achieve the sparseness of the resultant LS-SVM-based fuzzy systems but significantly reduces the amount of computational effort in model training as well. Three experimental examples are presented to demonstrate the effectiveness and efficiency of the proposed learning mechanism and the sparseness of the obtained LS-SVM-based fuzzy systems, in comparison with other SVM-based learning techniques.

Modelling of Evaporator in Waste Heat Recovery System using Finite Volume Method and Fuzzy Technique

The evaporator is an important component in the Organic Rankine Cycle (ORC)-based Waste Heat Recovery (WHR) system since the effective heat transfer of this device reflects on the efficiency of the system. When the WHR system operates under supercritical conditions, the heat transfer mechanism in the evaporator is unpredictable due to the change of thermo-physical properties of the fluid with temperature. Although the conventional finite volume model can successfully capture those changes in the evaporator of the WHR process, the computation time for this method is high. To reduce the computation time, this paper develops a new fuzzy based evaporator model and compares its performance with the finite volume method. The results show that the fuzzy technique can be applied to predict the output of the supercritical evaporator in the waste heat recovery system and can significantly reduce the required computation time. The proposed model, therefore, has the potential to be used in real time control applications.

Citizens and the future of multilateralism in a polycentric world at 2030: the perspectives of emerging countries for the trading system: the impasse of WTO, the trends of mega agreements, the logic of value chains and the advent of consumers concerns on international trade

A new paradigm is modeling the World: evolutionary innovations in all fronts, new information technologies, huge mobility of capital, use of risky financial tools, globalization of production, new emerging powers and the impact of consumer concerns on governmental policies. These phenomena are shaping the World and forcing the advent of a new World Order in the Multilateral Monetary, Financial, and Trading System. The effects of this new paradigm are also transforming global governance. The political and economic orders established after the World War and centered on the multilateral model of UN, IMF, World Bank, and the GATT, leaded by the developed countries, are facing significant challenges. The rise of China and emerging countries shifted the old model to a polycentric World, where the governance of these organizations are threatened by emerging countries demanding a bigger participation in the role and decision boards of these international bodies. As a consequence, multilateralism is being confronted by polycentrism. Negotiations for a more representative voting process and the pressure for new rules to cope with the new demands are paralyzing important decisions. This scenario is affecting seriously not only the Monetary and Financial Systems but also the Multilateral Trading System. International trade is facing some significant challenges: a serious deadlock to conclude the last round of the multilateral negotiation at the WTO, the fragmentation of trade rules by the multiplication of preferential and mega agreements, the arrival of a new model of global production and trade leaded by global value chains that is threatening the old trade order, and the imposition of new sets of regulations by private bodies commanded by transnationals to support global value chains and non-governmental organizations to reflect the concerns of consumers in the North based on their precautionary attitude about sustainability of products made in the World. The lack of any multilateral order in this new regulation is creating a big cacophony of rules and developing a new regulatory war of the Global North against the Global South. The objective of this paper is to explore how these challenges are affecting the Tradinge System and how it can evolve to manage these new trends.