Impact of a Reduced Arctic Sea Ice Cover on Ocean and Atmospheric Properties

The Arctic sea ice cover declined over the last few decades and reached a record minimum in 2007, with a slight recovery thereafter. Inspired by this the authors investigate the response of atmospheric and oceanic properties to a 1-yr period of reduced sea ice cover. Two ensembles of equilibrium and transient simulations are produced with the Community Climate System Model. A sea ice change is induced through an albedo change of 1 yr. The sea ice area and thickness recover in both ensembles after 3 and 5 yr, respectively. The sea ice anomaly leads to changes in ocean temperature and salinity to a depth of about 200 m in the Arctic Basin. Further, the salinity and temperature changes in the surface layer trigger a “Great Salinity Anomaly” in the North Atlantic that takes roughly 8 yr to travel across the North Atlantic back to high latitudes. In the atmosphere the changes induced by the sea ice anomaly do not last as long as in the ocean. The response in the transient and equilibrium simulations, while similar overall, differs in specific regional and temporal details. The surface air temperature increases over the Arctic Basin and the anomaly extends through the whole atmospheric column, changing the geopotential height fields and thus the storm tracks. The patterns of warming and thus the position of the geopotential height changes vary in the two ensembles. While the equilibrium simulation shifts the storm tracks to the south over the eastern North Atlantic and Europe, the transient simulation shifts the storm tracks south over the western North Atlantic and North America. The authors propose that the overall reduction in sea ice cover is important for producing ocean anomalies; however, for atmospheric anomalies the regional location of the sea ice anomalies is more important. While observed trends in Arctic sea ice are large and exceed those simulated by comprehensive climate models, there is little evidence based on this particular model that the seasonal loss of sea ice (e.g., as occurred in 2007) would constitute a threshold after which the Arctic would exhibit nonlinear, irreversible, or strongly accelerated sea ice loss. Caution should be exerted when extrapolating short-term trends to future sea ice behavior.

Estimating population and livestock density of mobile pastoralists and sedentary settlements in the southeastern Lake Chad area

Mobile pastoralists provide major contributions to the gross domestic product in Chad, but little information is available regarding their demography. The Lake Chad area population is increasing, resulting in competition for scarce land and water resources. For the first time, the density of people and animals from mobile and sedentary populations was assessed using randomly defined sampling areas. Four sampling rounds were conducted over two years in the same areas to show population density dynamics. We identified 42 villages of sedentary communities in the sampling zones; 11 (in 2010) and 16 (in 2011) mobile pastoralist camps at the beginning of the dry season and 34 (in 2011) and 30 (in 2012) camps at the end of the dry season. A mean of 64.0 people per km2 (95% confidence interval, 20.3-107.8) were estimated to live in sedentary villages. In the mobile communities, we found 5.9 people per km2 at the beginning and 17.5 people per km2 at the end of the dry season. We recorded per km2 on average 21.0 cattle and 31.6 small ruminants in the sedentary villages and 66.1 cattle and 102.5 small ruminants in the mobile communities, which amounts to a mean of 86.6 tropical livestock units during the dry season. These numbers exceed, by up to five times, the published carrying capacities for similar Sahelian zones. Our results underline the need for a new institutional framework. Improved land use management must equally consider the needs of mobile communities and sedentary populations.

Gas transport in firn: multiple-tracer characterisation and model intercomparison for NEEM, Northern Greenland

Air was sampled from the porous firn layer at the NEEM site in Northern Greenland. We use an ensemble of ten reference tracers of known atmospheric history to characterise the transport properties of the site. By analysing uncertainties in both data and the reference gas atmospheric histories, we can objectively assign weights to each of the gases used for the depth-diffusivity reconstruction. We define an objective root mean square criterion that is minimised in the model tuning procedure. Each tracer constrains the firn profile differently through its unique atmospheric history and free air diffusivity, making our multiple-tracer characterisation method a clear improvement over the commonly used single-tracer tuning. Six firn air transport models are tuned to the NEEM site; all models successfully reproduce the data within a 1σ Gaussian distribution. A comparison between two replicate boreholes drilled 64 m apart shows differences in measured mixing ratio profiles that exceed the experimental error. We find evidence that diffusivity does not vanish completely in the lock-in zone, as is commonly assumed. The ice age- gas age difference (1 age) at the firn-ice transition is calculated to be 182+3−9 yr. We further present the first intercomparison study of firn air models, where we introduce diagnostic scenarios designed to probe specific aspects of the model physics. Our results show that there are major differences in the way the models handle advective transport. Furthermore, diffusive fractionation of isotopes in the firn is poorly constrained by the models, which has consequences for attempts to reconstruct the isotopic composition of trace gases back in time using firn air and ice core records.

ROSINA/DFMS and IES observations of 67P: Ion-neutral chemistry in the coma of a weakly outgassing comet

Context. The Rosetta encounter with comet 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko provides a unique opportunity for an in situ, up-close investigation of ion-neutral chemistry in the coma of a weakly outgassing comet far from the Sun. Aims. Observations of primary and secondary ions and modeling are used to investigate the role of ion-neutral chemistry within the thin coma. Methods. Observations from late October through mid-December 2014 show the continuous presence of the solar wind 30 km from the comet nucleus. These and other observations indicate that there is no contact surface and the solar wind has direct access to the nucleus. On several occasions during this time period, the Rosetta/ROSINA/Double Focusing Mass Spectrometer measured the low-energy ion composition in the coma. Organic volatiles and water group ions and their breakup products (masses 14 through 19), CO2+ (masses 28 and 44) and other mass peaks (at masses 26, 27, and possibly 30) were observed. Secondary ions include H3O+ and HCO+ (masses 19 and 29). These secondary ions indicate ion-neutral chemistry in the thin coma of the comet. A relatively simple model is constructed to account for the low H3O+/H2O+ and HCO+/CO+ ratios observed in a water dominated coma. Results from this simple model are compared with results from models that include a more detailed chemical reaction network. Results. At low outgassing rates, predictions from the simple model agree with observations and with results from more complex models that include much more chemistry. At higher outgassing rates, the ion-neutral chemistry is still limited and high HCO+/CO+ ratios are predicted and observed. However, at higher outgassing rates, the model predicts high H3O+/H2O+ ratios and the observed ratios are often low. These low ratios may be the result of the highly heterogeneous nature of the coma, where CO and CO2 number densities can exceed that of water.

Consensus and differences in primary radiotherapy for localized and locally advanced prostate cancer in Switzerland: A survey on patterns of practice

INTRODUCTION External beam radiotherapy (EBRT), with or without androgen deprivation therapy (ADT), is an established treatment option for nonmetastatic prostate cancer. Despite high-level evidence from several randomized trials, risk group stratification and treatment recommendations vary due to contradictory or inconclusive data, particularly with regard to EBRT dose prescription and ADT duration. Our aim was to investigate current patterns of practice in primary EBRT for prostate cancer in Switzerland. MATERIALS AND METHODS Treatment recommendations on EBRT and ADT for localized and locally advanced prostate cancer were collected from 23 Swiss radiation oncology centers. Written recommendations were converted into center-specific decision trees, and analyzed for consensus and differences using a dedicated software tool. Additionally, specific radiotherapy planning and delivery techniques from the participating centers were assessed. RESULTS The most commonly prescribed radiation dose was 78 Gy (range 70-80 Gy) across all risk groups. ADT was recommended for intermediate-risk patients for 6 months in over 80 % of the centers, and for high-risk patients for 2 or 3 years in over 90 % of centers. For recommendations on combined EBRT and ADT treatment, consensus levels did not exceed 39 % in any clinical scenario. Arc-based intensity-modulated radiotherapy (IMRT) is implemented for routine prostate cancer radiotherapy by 96 % of the centers. CONCLUSION Among Swiss radiation oncology centers, considerable ranges of radiotherapy dose and ADT duration are routinely offered for localized and locally advanced prostate cancer. In the vast majority of cases, doses and durations are within the range of those described in current evidence-based guidelines.

Pulmonary Vein Isolation Versus Defragmentation: The CHASE-AF Clinical Trial

BACKGROUND Long-term success rates using ablation for persistent atrial fibrillation (AF) are disappointing and usually do not exceed 60%. OBJECTIVES This study sought to compare arrhythmia-free survival between pulmonary vein isolation (PVI) and a stepwise approach (full defrag) consisting of PVI, ablation of complex fractionated electrograms, and additional linear ablation lines in the setting of atrial tachycardias (AT) in patients with persistent AF after PVI. METHODS From November 2010 to February 2013, 205 patients (151 men; 61.7 ± 10.2 years of age) underwent de novo ablation for persistent AF. Subsequently, patients were prospectively randomized to either PVI alone (n = 78) or full defrag (n = 75), with 52 patients not randomized due to AF termination with the original PVI. The primary endpoint was recurrence of any AT after a blanking period of 3 months. RESULTS During the entire study, 241 ablations were performed (mean: 1.59 in the PVI-alone group, 1.55 in the full-defrag group). With the stepwise approach, termination of AF occurred in 45 (60%) patients. However, arrhythmia-free survival did not differ whether patients underwent single or multiple procedures (p = 0.468). Procedure duration, fluoroscopy time, and radiofrequency duration were significantly longer in the full-defrag group (all p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS A stepwise approach aimed at AF termination does not seem to provide additional benefit over PVI alone in patients with persistent AF, but it is associated with significantly longer procedural and fluoroscopic duration as well as radiofrequency application time. (The Randomized Catheter Ablation of Persist End Atrial Fibrillation Study [CHASE-AF]; NCT01580124).

European summer temperatures since Roman times

The spatial context is critical when assessing present-day climate anomalies, attributing them to potential forcings and making statements regarding their frequency and severity in a long-term perspective. Recent international initiatives have expanded the number of high-quality proxy-records and developed new statistical reconstruction methods. These advances allow more rigorous regional past temperature reconstructions and, in turn, the possibility of evaluating climate models on policy-relevant, spatio-temporal scales. Here we provide a new proxy-based, annually-resolved, spatial reconstruction of the European summer (June–August) temperature fields back to 755 CE based on Bayesian hierarchical modelling (BHM), together with estimates of the European mean temperature variation since 138 BCE based on BHM and composite-plus-scaling (CPS). Our reconstructions compare well with independent instrumental and proxy-based temperature estimates, but suggest a larger amplitude in summer temperature variability than previously reported. Both CPS and BHM reconstructions indicate that the mean 20th century European summer temperature was not significantly different from some earlier centuries, including the 1st, 2nd, 8th and 10th centuries CE. The 1st century (in BHM also the 10th century) may even have been slightly warmer than the 20th century, but the difference is not statistically significant. Comparing each 50 yr period with the 1951–2000 period reveals a similar pattern. Recent summers, however, have been unusually warm in the context of the last two millennia and there are no 30 yr periods in either reconstruction that exceed the mean average European summer temperature of the last 3 decades (1986–2015 CE). A comparison with an ensemble of climate model simulations suggests that the reconstructed European summer temperature variability over the period 850–2000 CE reflects changes in both internal variability and external forcing on multi-decadal time-scales. For pan-European temperatures we find slightly better agreement between the reconstruction and the model simulations with high-end estimates for total solar irradiance. Temperature differences between the medieval period, the recent period and the Little Ice Age are larger in the reconstructions than the simulations. This may indicate inflated variability of the reconstructions, a lack of sensitivity and processes to changes in external forcing on the simulated European climate and/or an underestimation of internal variability on centennial and longer time scales.

Age-Independent Cartilage Generation for Synovium-Based Autologous Chondrocyte Implantation.

The articular cartilage layer of synovial joints is commonly lesioned by trauma or by a degenerative joint disease. Attempts to repair the damage frequently involve the performance of autologous chondrocyte implantation (ACI). Healthy cartilage must be first removed from the joint, and then, on a separate occasion, following the isolation of the chondrocytes and their expansion in vitro, implanted within the lesion. The disadvantages of this therapeutic approach include the destruction of healthy cartilage-which may predispose the joint to osteoarthritic degeneration-the necessarily restricted availability of healthy tissue, the limited proliferative capacity of the donor cells-which declines with age-and the need for two surgical interventions. We postulated that it should be possible to induce synovial stem cells, which are characterized by high, age-independent, proliferative and chondrogenic differentiation capacities, to lay down cartilage within the outer juxtasynovial space after the transcutaneous implantation of a carrier bearing BMP-2 in a slow-release system. The chondrocytes could be isolated on-site and immediately used for ACI. To test this hypothesis, Chinchilla rabbits were used as an experimental model. A collagenous patch bearing BMP-2 in a slow-delivery vehicle was sutured to the inner face of the synovial membrane. The neoformed tissue was excised 5, 8, 11 and 14 days postimplantation for histological and histomorphometric analyses. Neoformed tissue was observed within the outer juxtasynovial space already on the 5th postimplantation day. It contained connective and adipose tissues, and a central nugget of growing cartilage. Between days 5 and 14, the absolute volume of cartilage increased, attaining a value of 12 mm(3) at the latter juncture. Bone was deposited in measurable quantities from the 11th day onwards, but owing to resorption, the net volume did not exceed 1.5 mm(3) (14th day). The findings confirm our hypothesis. The quantity of neoformed cartilage that is deposited after only 1 week within the outer juxtasynovial space would yield sufficient cells for ACI. Since the BMP-2-bearing patches would be implanted transcutaneously in humans, only one surgical or arthroscopic intervention would be called for. Moreover, most importantly, sufficient numbers of cells could be generated in patients of all ages.

(O8, O8) contribution to B¯ → Xsγγ at O(αs)

In this analysis, we present the contribution associated with the chromomagnetic dipole operator O8 to the double differential decay width dΓ/(ds1ds2) for the inclusive process B¯→Xsγγ. The kinematical variables s1 and s2 are defined as si=(pb−qi)2/m2b, where pb, q1, q2 are the momenta of b quark and two photons. This contribution (taken at tree level) is of order αs, like the recently calculated QCD corrections to the contribution of the operator O7. In order to regulate possible collinear singularities of one of the photons with the strange quark, we introduce a nonzero mass ms for the strange quark. Our results are obtained for exact ms, which we interpret as a constituent mass being varied between 400 and 600 MeV. Numerically it turns out that the effect of the (O8, O8) contribution to the branching ratio of B¯→Xsγγ does not exceed +0.1% for any kinematically allowed value of our physical cutoff parameter c, confirming the expected suppression of this contribution relative to the QCD corrections to dΓ77/(ds1ds2).

Binary recombinase systems for high-resolution conditional mutagenesis.

Conditional mutagenesis using Cre recombinase expressed from tissue specific promoters facilitates analyses of gene function and cell lineage tracing. Here, we describe two novel dual-promoter-driven conditional mutagenesis systems designed for greater accuracy and optimal efficiency of recombination. Co-Driver employs a recombinase cascade of Dre and Dre-respondent Cre, which processes loxP-flanked alleles only when both recombinases are expressed in a predetermined temporal sequence. This unique property makes Co-Driver ideal for sequential lineage tracing studies aimed at unraveling the relationships between cellular precursors and mature cell types. Co-InCre was designed for highly efficient intersectional conditional transgenesis. It relies on highly active trans-splicing inteins and promoters with simultaneous transcriptional activity to reconstitute Cre recombinase from two inactive precursor fragments. By generating native Cre, Co-InCre attains recombination rates that exceed all other binary SSR systems evaluated in this study. Both Co-Driver and Co-InCre significantly extend the utility of existing Cre-responsive alleles.

Mapping spectroscopic uncertainties into prospective methane retrieval errors from Sentinel-5 and its precursor

Sentinel-5 (S5) and its precursor (S5P) are future European satellite missions aiming at global monitoring of methane (CH4) column-average dry air mole fractions (XCH4). The spectrometers to be deployed onboard the satellites record spectra of sunlight backscattered from the Earth's surface and atmosphere. In particular, they exploit CH4 absorption in the shortwave infrared spectral range around 1.65 mu m (S5 only) and 2.35 mu m (both S5 and S5P) wavelength. Given an accuracy goal of better than 2% for XCH4 to be delivered on regional scales, assessment and reduction of potential sources of systematic error such as spectroscopic uncertainties is crucial. Here, we investigate how spectroscopic errors propagate into retrieval errors on the global scale. To this end, absorption spectra of a ground-based Fourier transform spectrometer (FTS) operating at very high spectral resolution serve as estimate for the quality of the spectroscopic parameters. Feeding the FTS fitting residuals as a perturbation into a global ensemble of simulated S5- and S5P-like spectra at relatively low spectral resolution, XCH4 retrieval errors exceed 0.6% in large parts of the world and show systematic correlations on regional scales, calling for improved spectroscopic parameters.

The muscarinic antagonists scopolamine and atropine are competitive antagonists at 5-HT3 receptors

Scopolamine is a high affinity muscarinic antagonist that is used for the prevention of post-operative nausea and vomiting. 5-HT3 receptor antagonists are used for the same purpose and are structurally related to scopolamine. To examine whether 5-HT3 receptors are affected by scopolamine we examined the effects of this drug on the electrophysiological and ligand binding properties of 5-HT3A receptors expressed in Xenopus oocytes and HEK293 cells, respectively. 5-HT3 receptor-responses were reversibly inhibited by scopolamine with an IC50 of 2.09 μM. Competitive antagonism was shown by Schild plot (pA2 = 5.02) and by competition with the 5-HT3 receptor antagonists [3H]granisetron (Ki = 6.76 µM) and G-FL (Ki = 4.90 µM). The related molecule, atropine, similarly inhibited 5-HT evoked responses in oocytes with an IC50 of 1.74 µM, and competed with G-FL with a Ki of 7.94 µM. The reverse experiment revealed that granisetron also competitively bound to muscarinic receptors (Ki = 6.5 µM). In behavioural studies scopolamine is used to block muscarinic receptors and induce a cognitive deficit, and centrally administered concentrations can exceed the IC50 values found here. It is therefore possible that 5-HT3 receptors are also inhibited. Studies that utilise higher concentrations of scopolamine should be mindful of these potential off-target effects.

Burrowing in Marine Muds by Crack Propagation: Kinematics and Forces

The polychaete Nereis virens burrows through muddy sediments by exerting dorsoventral forces against the walls of its tongue-depressor- shaped burrow to extend an oblate hemispheroidal crack. Stress is concentrated at the crack tip, which extends when the stress intensity factor (K-I) exceeds the critical stress intensity factor (K-Ic). Relevant forces were measured in gelatin, an analog for elastic muds, by photoelastic stress analysis, and were 0.015 +/- 0.001 N (mean +/- s.d.;N= 5). Measured elastic moduli (E) for gelatin and sediment were used in finite element models to convert the forces in gelatin to those required in muds to maintain the same body shapes observed in gelatin. The force increases directly with increasing sediment stiffness, and is 0.16 N for measured sediment stiffness of E=2.7x10(4) Pa. This measurement of forces exerted by burrowers is the first that explicitly considers the mechanical behavior of the sediment. Calculated stress intensity factors fall within the range of critical values for gelatin and exceed those for sediment, showing that crack propagation is a mechanically feasible mechanism of burrowing. The pharynx extends anteriorly as it everts, extending the crack tip only as far as the anterior of the worm, consistent with wedge-driven fracture and drawing obvious parallels between soft-bodied burrowers and more rigid, wedge-shaped burrowers(i.e. clams). Our results raise questions about the reputed high energetic cost of burrowing and emphasize the need for better understanding of sediment mechanics to quantify external energy expenditure during burrowing.

The Dental School Applicant Pool and the Oral Healthcare Workforce

One of the major challenges faced by the dental profession today is the recruitment of the most qualified dental school applicants who are capable of serving the nation’s future oral healthcare needs. The Association of Schools of Public Health (ASPH) also recognizes this challenge, describing one of the three core functions of public health as “assuring that all populations have access to appropriate and cost effective care, including health promotion and disease prevention services.” To achieve this core function, the ASPH cites “a competent public health and personal healthcare workforce” as one of the ten essential public health services. Unfortunately, the goals of both quality and equality in terms of the dental workforce and access to oral healthcare have yet to be realized. When considering access to oral health services on a national or state level, a thoughtful and thorough consideration of the dental school applicant pool is essential. According to a recent study published in the Journal of the American Dental Association, the annual number of retiring dentists will exceed the number of newly licensed dental practitioners in 2009, a trend which is projected to continue throughout the next decade. The approximately 4,400 dentists produced each year from the nation’s 57 accredited dental education programs are charged with the responsibility of meeting the oral healthcare needs of the population at large.

Discrimination in Metropolitan Housing Markets: Phase 3 - Native Americans

This paper documents the results of a pilot paired testing program to examine the treatment of Native Americans by real estate agents in rental housing markets in three states and owner-occupied housing markets in one state. The study finds that the level of discrimination experienced by Native Americans in rental markets exceed those experienced by Hispanics, Blacks, and Asian-Americans.