How valuable are multiple treatment comparison methods in evidence-based health-care evaluation?

Objectives To compare the use of pair-wise meta-analysis methods to multiple treatment comparison (MTC) methods for evidence-based health-care evaluation to estimate the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of alternative health-care interventions based on the available evidence. Methods Pair-wise meta-analysis and more complex evidence syntheses, incorporating an MTC component, are applied to three examples: 1) clinical effectiveness of interventions for preventing strokes in people with atrial fibrillation; 2) clinical and cost-effectiveness of using drug-eluting stents in percutaneous coronary intervention in patients with coronary artery disease; and 3) clinical and cost-effectiveness of using neuraminidase inhibitors in the treatment of influenza. We compare the two synthesis approaches with respect to the assumptions made, empirical estimates produced, and conclusions drawn. Results The difference between point estimates of effectiveness produced by the pair-wise and MTC approaches was generally unpredictable—sometimes agreeing closely whereas in other instances differing considerably. In all three examples, the MTC approach allowed the inclusion of randomized controlled trial evidence ignored in the pair-wise meta-analysis approach. This generally increased the precision of the effectiveness estimates from the MTC model. Conclusions The MTC approach to synthesis allows the evidence base on clinical effectiveness to be treated as a coherent whole, include more data, and sometimes relax the assumptions made in the pair-wise approaches. However, MTC models are necessarily more complex than those developed for pair-wise meta-analysis and thus could be seen as less transparent. Therefore, it is important that model details and the assumptions made are carefully reported alongside the results.

Transmission of Chlamydia trachomatis through sexual partnerships: a comparison between three individual-based models and empirical data

Chlamydia trachomatis is the most common bacterial sexually transmitted infection (STI) in many developed countries. The highest prevalence rates are found among young adults who have frequent partner change rates. Three published individual-based models have incorporated a detailed description of age-specific sexual behaviour in order to quantify the transmission of C. trachomatis in the population and to assess the impact of screening interventions. Owing to varying assumptions about sexual partnership formation and dissolution and the great uncertainty about critical parameters, such models show conflicting results about the impact of preventive interventions. Here, we perform a detailed evaluation of these models by comparing the partnership formation and dissolution dynamics with data from Natsal 2000, a population-based probability sample survey of sexual attitudes and lifestyles in Britain. The data also allow us to describe the dispersion of C. trachomatis infections as a function of sexual behaviour, using the Gini coefficient. We suggest that the Gini coefficient is a useful measure for calibrating infectious disease models that include risk structure and highlight the need to estimate this measure for other STIs.

Analysis Methodology for Flow-level Evaluation of a Hybrid Mobile-Sensor Network

Our society uses a large diversity of co-existing wired and wireless networks in order to satisfy its communication needs. A cooper- ation between these networks can benefit performance, service availabil- ity and deployment ease, and leads to the emergence of hybrid networks. This position paper focuses on a hybrid mobile-sensor network identify- ing potential advantages and challenges of its use and defining feasible applications. The main value of the paper, however, is in the proposed analysis approach to evaluate the performance at the mobile network side given the mixed mobile-sensor traffic. The approach combines packet- level analysis with modelling of flow-level behaviour and can be applied for the study of various application scenarios. In this paper we consider two applications with distinct traffic models namely multimedia traffic and best-effort traffic.

Comprehensive evaluation of a somatostatin-based radiolabelled antagonist for diagnostic imaging and radionuclide therapy

Targeting of tumours positive for somatostatin receptors (sst) with radiolabelled peptides is of interest for tumour localization, staging, therapy follow-up and targeted radionuclide therapy. The peptides used clinically are exclusively agonists, but recently we have shown that the radiolabelled somatostatin-based antagonist (111)In-DOTA-sst2-ANT may be preferable to agonists. However, a comprehensive study of this radiolabelled antagonist to determine its significance was lacking. The present report describes the evaluation of this novel antagonist labelled with (111)In and (177)Lu in three different tumour models.

Evaluation of the Design of Komendant's Cycloidal, Thin Shell Roofs At the Kimbell Art Museum Using Finite Element Analysis

The analysis of Komendant's design of the Kimbell Art Museum was carried out in order to determine the effectiveness of the ring beams, edge beams and prestressing in the shells of the roof system. Finite element analysis was not available to Komendant or other engineers of the time to aid them in the design and analysis. Thus, the use of this tool helped to form a new perspective on the Kimbell Art Museum and analyze the engineer's work. In order to carry out the finite element analysis of Kimbell Art Museum, ADINA finite element analysis software was utilized. Eight finite element models (FEM-1 through FEM-8) of increasing complexity were created. The results of the most realistic model, FEM-8, which included ring beams, edge beams and prestressing, were compared to Komendant's calculations. The maximum deflection at the crown of the mid-span surface of -0.1739 in. in FEM-8 was found to be larger than Komendant's deflection in the design documents before the loss in prestressing force (-0.152 in.) but smaller than his prediction after the loss in prestressing force (-0.3814 in.). Komendant predicted a larger longitudinal stress of -903 psi at the crown (vs. -797 psi in FEM-8) and 37 psi at the edge (vs. -347 psi in FEM-8). Considering the strength of concrete of 5000 psi, the difference in results is not significant. From the analysis it was determined that both FEM-5, which included prestressing and fixed rings, and FEM-8 can be successfully and effectively implemented in practice. Prestressing was used in both models and thus served as the main contribution to efficiency. FEM-5 showed that ring and edge beams can be avoided, however an architect might find them more aesthetically appropriate than rigid walls.

[Improve your skills!: evaluation of a 2.5-day basic course in vascular surgery for surgical trainees]

The traditional surgical training in the operating room (OR) is often complemented by participation in workshops and on simulators. The foundation Vascular International offers basic courses for vascular surgery techniques with training on pulsatile circulation, lifelike anatomical models. The aim of this study was to assess the efficacy of a 2.5-day intensive course on basic skills in vascular surgery.

In vitro hemodynamic evaluation of ventricular suction conditions of the EVAHEART ventricular assist pump

Purpose: Mismatches between pump output and venous return in a continuous-flow ventricular assist device may elicit episodes of ventricular suction. This research describes a series of in vitro experiments to characterize the operating conditions under which the EVAHEART centrifugal blood pump (Sun Medical Technology Research Corp., Nagano, Japan) can be operated with minimal concern regarding left ventricular (LV) suction. Methods: The pump was interposed into a pneumatically driven pulsatile mock circulatory system (MCS) in the ventricular apex to aorta configuration. Under varying conditions of preload, afterload, and systolic pressure, the speed of the pump was increased step-wise until suction was observed. Identification of suction was based on pump inlet pressure. Results: In the case of reduced LV systolic pressure, reduced preload (=10 mmHg), and afterload (=60 mmHg), suction was observed for speeds =2,200 rpm. However, suction did not occur at any speed (up to a maximum speed of 2,400 rpm) when preload was kept within 10-14 mmHg and afterload =80 mmHg. Although in vitro experiments cannot replace in vivo models, the results indicated that ventricular suction can be avoided if sufficient preload and afterload are maintained. Conclusion: Conditions of hypovolemia and/or hypotension may increase the risk of suction at the highest speeds, irrespective of the native ventricular systolic pressure. However, in vitro guidelines are not directly transferrable to the clinical situation; therefore, patient-specific evaluation is recommended, which can be aided by ultrasonography at various points in the course of support.

Pancreatic carcinoma, pancreatitis, and healthy controls: metabolite models in a three-class diagnostic dilemma

Metabolomics as one of the most rapidly growing technologies in the "-omics" field denotes the comprehensive analysis of low molecular-weight compounds and their pathways. Cancer-specific alterations of the metabolome can be detected by high-throughput mass-spectrometric metabolite profiling and serve as a considerable source of new markers for the early differentiation of malignant diseases as well as their distinction from benign states. However, a comprehensive framework for the statistical evaluation of marker panels in a multi-class setting has not yet been established. We collected serum samples of 40 pancreatic carcinoma patients, 40 controls, and 23 pancreatitis patients according to standard protocols and generated amino acid profiles by routine mass-spectrometry. In an intrinsic three-class bioinformatic approach we compared these profiles, evaluated their selectivity and computed multi-marker panels combined with the conventional tumor marker CA 19-9. Additionally, we tested for non-inferiority and superiority to determine the diagnostic surplus value of our multi-metabolite marker panels. Compared to CA 19-9 alone, the combined amino acid-based metabolite panel had a superior selectivity for the discrimination of healthy controls, pancreatitis, and pancreatic carcinoma patients [Formula: see text] We combined highly standardized samples, a three-class study design, a high-throughput mass-spectrometric technique, and a comprehensive bioinformatic framework to identify metabolite panels selective for all three groups in a single approach. Our results suggest that metabolomic profiling necessitates appropriate evaluation strategies and-despite all its current limitations-can deliver marker panels with high selectivity even in multi-class settings.

Characterization of the canine CLCN3 gene and evaluation as candidate for late-onset NCL

BACKGROUND: The neuronal ceroid lipofuscinoses (NCL) are a heterogenous group of inherited progressive neurodegenerative diseases in different mammalian species. Tibetan Terrier and Polish Owczarek Nizinny (PON) dogs show rare late-onset NCL variants with autosomal recessive inheritance, which can not be explained by mutations of known human NCL genes. These dog breeds represent animal models for human late-onset NCL. In mice the chloride channel 3 gene (Clcn3) encoding an intracellular chloride channel was described to cause a phenotype similar to NCL. RESULTS: Two full-length cDNA splice variants of the canine CLCN3 gene are reported. The current canine whole genome sequence assembly was used for gene structure analyses and revealed 13 coding CLCN3 exons in 52 kb of genomic sequence. Sequence analysis of the coding exons and flanking intron regions of CLCN3 using six NCL-affected Tibetan terrier dogs and an NCL-affected Polish Owczarek Nizinny (PON) dog, as well as eight healthy Tibetan terrier dogs revealed 13 SNPs. No consistent CLCN3 haplotype was associated with NCL. CONCLUSION: For the examined animals we excluded the complete coding region and adjacent intronic regions of canine CLCN3 to harbor disease-causing mutations. Therefore it seems to be unlikely that a mutation in this gene is responsible for the late-onset NCL phenotype in these two dog breeds.

Design, synthesis, and biological evaluation of somatostatin-based radiopeptides

The prototypes for tumor targeting with radiolabeled peptides are derivatives of somatostatin. Usually, they primarily have high affinity for somatostatin receptor subtype 2 (sst2), and they have moderate affinity for sst5. We aimed at developing analogs that recognize different somatostatin receptor subtypes for internal radiotherapy in order to extend the present range of accessible tumors. We synthesized DOTA-octapeptides based on octreotide by replacing Phe3 mainly with unnatural amino acids. The affinity profile was determined by using cell lines transfected with sst1-5. Internalization was determined by using AR42J, HEK-sst3, and HEK-sst5 cell lines, and biodistribution was studied in rat tumor models. Two of the derivatives thus obtained showed an improved binding affinity profile, enhanced internalization into cells expressing sst2 and sst3, respectively, and better tumor:kidney ratios in animals.

Model Evaluation Based on the Distribution of Estimated Absolute Prediction Error

The construction of a reliable, practically useful prediction rule for future response is heavily dependent on the "adequacy" of the fitted regression model. In this article, we consider the absolute prediction error, the expected value of the absolute difference between the future and predicted responses, as the model evaluation criterion. This prediction error is easier to interpret than the average squared error and is equivalent to the mis-classification error for the binary outcome. We show that the distributions of the apparent error and its cross-validation counterparts are approximately normal even under a misspecified fitted model. When the prediction rule is "unsmooth", the variance of the above normal distribution can be estimated well via a perturbation-resampling method. We also show how to approximate the distribution of the difference of the estimated prediction errors from two competing models. With two real examples, we demonstrate that the resulting interval estimates for prediction errors provide much more information about model adequacy than the point estimates alone.

Checking Assumptions in Latent Class Regression Models via a Markov Chain Monte Carlo Estimation Approach: An Application to Depression and Socio-Economic Status

Latent class regression models are useful tools for assessing associations between covariates and latent variables. However, evaluation of key model assumptions cannot be performed using methods from standard regression models due to the unobserved nature of latent outcome variables. This paper presents graphical diagnostic tools to evaluate whether or not latent class regression models adhere to standard assumptions of the model: conditional independence and non-differential measurement. An integral part of these methods is the use of a Markov Chain Monte Carlo estimation procedure. Unlike standard maximum likelihood implementations for latent class regression model estimation, the MCMC approach allows us to calculate posterior distributions and point estimates of any functions of parameters. It is this convenience that allows us to provide the diagnostic methods that we introduce. As a motivating example we present an analysis focusing on the association between depression and socioeconomic status, using data from the Epidemiologic Catchment Area study. We consider a latent class regression analysis investigating the association between depression and socioeconomic status measures, where the latent variable depression is regressed on education and income indicators, in addition to age, gender, and marital status variables. While the fitted latent class regression model yields interesting results, the model parameters are found to be invalid due to the violation of model assumptions. The violation of these assumptions is clearly identified by the presented diagnostic plots. These methods can be applied to standard latent class and latent class regression models, and the general principle can be extended to evaluate model assumptions in other types of models.

MULTIPLE MODEL EVALUATION ABSENT THE GOLD STANDARD VIA MODEL COMBINATION

We describe a method for evaluating an ensemble of predictive models given a sample of observations comprising the model predictions and the outcome event measured with error. Our formulation allows us to simultaneously estimate measurement error parameters, true outcome — aka the gold standard — and a relative weighting of the predictive scores. We describe conditions necessary to estimate the gold standard and for these estimates to be calibrated and detail how our approach is related to, but distinct from, standard model combination techniques. We apply our approach to data from a study to evaluate a collection of BRCA1/BRCA2 gene mutation prediction scores. In this example, genotype is measured with error by one or more genetic assays. We estimate true genotype for each individual in the dataset, operating characteristics of the commonly used genotyping procedures and a relative weighting of the scores. Finally, we compare the scores against the gold standard genotype and find that Mendelian scores are, on average, the more refined and better calibrated of those considered and that the comparison is sensitive to measurement error in the gold standard.

A feasibility study on model-based evaluation of kidney perfusion measured by means of FAIR prepared true-FISP arterial spin labeling (ASL) on a 3-T MR scanner

RATIONALE AND OBJECTIVES: A feasibility study on measuring kidney perfusion by a contrast-free magnetic resonance (MR) imaging technique is presented. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A flow-sensitive alternating inversion recovery (FAIR) prepared true fast imaging with steady-state precession (TrueFISP) arterial spin labeling sequence was used on a 3.0-T MR-scanner. The basis for quantification is a two-compartment exchange model proposed by Parkes that corrects for diverse assumptions in single-compartment standard models. RESULTS: Eleven healthy volunteers (mean age, 42.3 years; range 24-55) were examined. The calculated mean renal blood flow values for the exchange model (109 +/- 5 [medulla] and 245 +/- 11 [cortex] ml/min - 100 g) are in good agreement with the literature. Most important, the two-compartment exchange model exhibits a stabilizing effect on the evaluation of perfusion values if the finite permeability of the vessel wall and the venous outflow (fast solution) are considered: the values for the one-compartment standard model were 93 +/- 18 (medulla) and 208 +/- 37 (cortex) ml/min - 100 g. CONCLUSION: This improvement will increase the accuracy of contrast-free imaging of kidney perfusion in treatment renovascular disease.

Evaluation of flood risk in response to climate variability

Standard procedures for forecasting flood risk (Bulletin 17B) assume annual maximum flood (AMF) series are stationary, meaning the distribution of flood flows is not significantly affected by climatic trends/cycles, or anthropogenic activities within the watershed. Historical flood events are therefore considered representative of future flood occurrences, and the risk associated with a given flood magnitude is modeled as constant over time. However, in light of increasing evidence to the contrary, this assumption should be reconsidered, especially as the existence of nonstationarity in AMF series can have significant impacts on planning and management of water resources and relevant infrastructure. Research presented in this thesis quantifies the degree of nonstationarity evident in AMF series for unimpaired watersheds throughout the contiguous U.S., identifies meteorological, climatic, and anthropogenic causes of this nonstationarity, and proposes an extension of the Bulletin 17B methodology which yields forecasts of flood risk that reflect climatic influences on flood magnitude. To appropriately forecast flood risk, it is necessary to consider the driving causes of nonstationarity in AMF series. Herein, large-scale climate patterns—including El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO)—are identified as influencing factors on flood magnitude at numerous stations across the U.S. Strong relationships between flood magnitude and associated precipitation series were also observed for the majority of sites analyzed in the Upper Midwest and Northeastern regions of the U.S. Although relationships between flood magnitude and associated temperature series are not apparent, results do indicate that temperature is highly correlated with the timing of flood peaks. Despite consideration of watersheds classified as unimpaired, analyses also suggest that identified change-points in AMF series are due to dam construction, and other types of regulation and diversion. Although not explored herein, trends in AMF series are also likely to be partially explained by changes in land use and land cover over time. Results obtained herein suggest that improved forecasts of flood risk may be obtained using a simple modification of the Bulletin 17B framework, wherein the mean and standard deviation of the log-transformed flows are modeled as functions of climate indices associated with oceanic-atmospheric patterns (e.g. AMO, ENSO, NAO, and PDO) with lead times between 3 and 9 months. Herein, one-year ahead forecasts of the mean and standard deviation, and subsequently flood risk, are obtained by applying site specific multivariate regression models, which reflect the phase and intensity of a given climate pattern, as well as possible impacts of coupling of the climate cycles. These forecasts of flood risk are compared with forecasts derived using the existing Bulletin 17B model; large differences in the one-year ahead forecasts are observed in some locations. The increased knowledge of the inherent structure of AMF series and an improved understanding of physical and/or climatic causes of nonstationarity gained from this research should serve as insight for the formulation of a physical-casual based statistical model, incorporating both climatic variations and human impacts, for flood risk over longer planning horizons (e.g., 10-, 50, 100-years) necessary for water resources design, planning, and management.