The impact of the abrupt 8.2 ka cold event on the Mesolithic population of western Scotland: a Bayesian chronological analysis using ‘activity events’ as a population proxy

The potential impact of the abrupt 8.2 ka cold event on human demography, settlement patterns and culture in Europe and the Near East has emerged as a key theme in current discussion and debate. We test whether this event had an impact on the Mesolithic population of western Scotland, a case study located within the North Atlantic region where the environmental impact of the 8.2 ka event is likely to have been the most severe. By undertaking a Bayesian analysis of the radiocarbon record and using the number of activity events as a proxy for the size of the human population, we find evidence for a dramatic reduction in the Mesolithic population synchronous with the 8.2 ka event. We interpret this as reflecting the demographic collapse of a low density population that lacked the capability to adapt to the rapid onset of new environmental conditions. This impact of the 8.2 ka event in the North Atlantic region lends credence to the possibility of a similar impact on populations in Continental Europe and the Near East.

Comparison of three systems of classification in predicting the outcome of diabetic foot ulcers in a Brazilian population

Objective: The aim was to compare there ulcer classification systems as predictors of the outcome of diabetic foot ulcers; the Wagner, the University of Texas (UT) and the size (area, depth), sepsis, arteriopathy, denervation system (S(AD)SAD) systems in specialist clinic in Brazil.Methods: Ulcer area, depth, appearance, infection and associated ischaemia and neuropathy were recorded in a consecutive series of 94 subjects. A novel score, the S(AD)SAD score, was derived from the sum of individual items of the S(AD)SAD system, and was evaluated. Follow-up was for at least 6 months. The primary outcome measure was the incidence of healing.Results: Mean age was 57.6 years; 57 (60.6%) were made. Forty-eight ulcers (51.1%) healed without surgery; 11 (12.2%) subjects underwent minor amputation. Significant differences in terms of healing were observed for depth (P = 0.002), infection (P = 0.006) and denervation (P = 0.002) using the S(AD)SAD system, for UT grade (P = 0.002) and stage (P = 0.032) and for Wagner grades (P = 0.002). Ulcers with an S(AD)SAD score of <= 9 (total possible 15) were 7.6 times more likely to heal than scores >= 10 (P < 0.001).Conclusions: All three systems predicted ulcer outcome. The S(AD)SAD score of ulcer severity could represent a useful addition to routine clinical practice. The association between outcome and ulcer depth confirms earlier reports. The association with infection was stronger than that reported from the centres in Europe or North America. The very strong association with neuropathy has only previously been observed in Tanzania. Studies designed to compare the outcome in different countries should adopt systems of classification, which are valid for the populations studied.

Pension reform in Europe in the 90's and lessons for Latin America

Includes bibliography

Comparison of the Clinical Expression of Patients with Ankylosing Spondylitis from Europe and Latin America

Objective. To compare the clinical, demographic, and serologic characteristics and the treatment of patients diagnosed with ankylosing spondylitis (AS) from Europe (EU) and Latin America (LA). Methods. We included 3439 patients from national registries: the Spanish Registry of Spondyloarthritis (REGISPONSER), the Belgian registry (ASPECT), and the Latin American Registry of Spondyloarthropathies (RESPONDIA). We selected patients with diagnosis of AS who met the modified New York classification criteria. Demographic, clinical, disease activity, functional, and metrological measurement data were recorded. Current treatment was recorded. The population was classified into 2 groups: patients with disease duration < 10 years and those with disease duration >= 10 years. A descriptive and comparative analysis of variables of both groups was carried out. Results. There were 2356 patients in EU group and 1083 in LA group. Prevalence of HLA-B27 was 71% in LA group and 83% in EU group (p < 0.001). We found a greater frequency of peripheral arthritis and enthesitis (p < 0.001) in the LA population; prevalence of arthritis was 57% in LA and 42% in EU, and for enthesitis, 54% and 38%. Except for treatment with anti-tumor necrosis factor (anti-TNF), the use of nonsteroidal antiinflammatory drugs (NSAID), corticosteroids, and disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs (DMARD), and the association of anti-TNF and methotrexate use showed a significant difference (p < 0.001) in the 2 populations. Conclusion. The principal differences in the clinical manifestations of patients with AS from EU and LA were the greater frequency of peripheral arthritis and enthesitis in LA group, the higher percentage of HLA-B27 in EU group, and the form of treatment, with a greater use of NSAID, steroids, and DMARD in the LA group. (First Release Nov 15 2012; J Rheumatol 2012;39:2315-20; doi:10.3899/jrheum.110687)

Molecular phylogeography of the Woodland Ringlet (Erebia medusa [Denis and Schiffermüller] 1775) in Europe

Phylogeography is a recent field of biological research that links phylogenetics to biogeography through deciphering the imprint that evolutionary history has left on the genetic structure of extant populations. During the cold phases of the successive ice ages, which drastically shaped species’ distributions since the Pliocene, populations of numerous species were isolated in refugia where many of them evolved into different genetic lineages. My dissertation deals with the phylogeography of the Woodland Ringlet (Erebia medusa [Denis and Schiffermüller] 1775) in Central and Eastern Europe. This Palaearctic butterfly species is currently distributed from central France and south eastern Belgium over large parts of Central Europe and southern Siberia to the Pacific. It is absent from those parts of Europe with mediterranean, oceanic and boreal climates. It was supposed to be a Siberian faunal element with a rather homogeneous population structure in Central Europe due to its postglacial expansion out of a single eastern refugium. An already existing evolutionary scenario for the Woodland Ringlet in Central and Eastern Europe is based on nuclear data (allozymes). To know if this is corroborated by organelle evolutionary history, I sequenced two mitochondrial markers (part of the cytochrome oxydase subunit one and the control region) for populations sampled over the same area. Phylogeography largely relies on the construction of networks of uniparentally inherited haplotypes that are compared to geographic haplotype distribution thanks to recent developed methods such as nested clade phylogeographic analysis (NCPA). Several ring-shaped ambiguities (loops) emerged from both haplotype networks in E. medusa. They can be attributed to recombination and homoplasy. Such loops usually avert the straightforward extraction of the phylogeographic signal contained in a gene tree. I developed several new approaches to extract phylogeographic information in the presence of loops, considering either homoplasy or recombination. This allowed me to deduce a consistent evolutionary history for the species from the mitochondrial data and also adds plausibility for the occurrence of recombination in E. medusa mitochondria. Despite the fact that the control region is assumed to have a lack of resolving power in other species, I found a considerable genetic variation of this marker in E. medusa which makes it a useful tool for phylogeographic studies. In combination with the allozyme data, the mitochondrial genome supports the following phylogeographic scenario for E. medusa in Europe: (i) a first vicariance, due to the onset of the Würm glaciation, led to the formation of several major lineages, and is mirrored in the NCPA by restricted gene flow, (ii) later on further vicariances led to the formation of two sub-lineages in the Western lineage and two sub-lineages in the Eastern lineage during the Last Glacial Maximum or Older Dryas; additionally the NCPA supports a restriction of gene flow with isolation by distance, (iii) finally, vicariance resulted in two secondary sub-lineages in the area of Germany and, maybe, to two other secondary sub-lineages in the Czech Republic. The last postglacial warming was accompanied by strong range expansions in most of the genetic lineages. The scenario expected for a presumably Siberian faunal element such as E. medusa is a continuous loss of genetic diversity during postglacial westward expansion. Hence, the pattern found in this thesis contradicts a typical Siberian origin of E. medusa. In contrast, it corroboratess the importance of multiple extra-Mediterranean refugia for European fauna as it was recently assumed for other continental species.

Conservation genetics of European wildcat (Felis silvestris silvestris): a wide and integrating analysis protocol for admixture inferences and population structure

Introgression of domestic cat genes into European wildcat (Felis silvestris silvestris) populations and reduction of wildcats’ range in Europe, leaded by habitat loss and fragmentation, are considered two of the main conservation problems for this endangered feline. This thesis addressed the questions related with the artificial hybridization and populations’ fragmentation, using a conservation genetics perspective. We combined the use of highly polymorphic loci, Bayesian statistical inferences and landscape analyses tools to investigate the origin of the geographic-genetic substructure of European wildcats (Felis silvestris silvestris) in Italy and Europe. The genetic variability of microsatellites evidenced that European wildcat populations currently distributed in Italy differentiated in, and expanded from two distinct glacial refuges during the Last Glacial Maximum. The genetic and geographic substructure detected between the eastern and western sides of the Apennine ridge, resulted by adaptation to specific ecological conditions of the Mediterranean habitats. European wildcat populations in Europe are strongly structured into 5 geographic-genetic macro clusters corresponding to: the Italian peninsular & Sicily; Balkans & north-eastern Italy; Germany eastern; central Europe; and Iberian Peninsula. Central European population might have differentiated in the extra-Mediterranean Würm ice age refuge areas (Northern Alps, Carpathians, and the Bulgarian mountain systems), while the divergence among and within the southern European populations might have resulted by the Pleistocene bio geographical framework of Europe, with three southern refugia localized in the Balkans, Italian Peninsula and Iberia Peninsula. We further combined the use of most informative autosomal SNPs with uniparental markers (mtDNA and Y-linked) for accurately detecting parental genotypes and levels of introgressive hybridization between European wild and domestic cats. A total of 11 hybrids were identified. The presence of domestic mitochondrial haplotypes shared with some wild individuals led us to hypnotize the possibility that ancient introgressive events might have occurred and that further investigation should be recommended.

Comparative phylogeography of two co-distributed arctic-alpine freshwater insect species in Europe

The distribution pattern of European arctic-alpine disjunct species is of growing interest among biogeographers due to the arising variety of inferred demographic histories. In this thesis I used the co-distributed mayfly Ameletus inopinatus and the stonefly Arcynopteryx compacta as model species to investigate the European Pleistocene and Holocene history of stream-inhabiting arctic-alpine aquatic insects. I used last glacial maximum (LGM) species distribution models (SDM) to derive hypotheses on the glacial survival during the LGM and the recolonization of Fennoscandia: 1) both species potentially survived glacial cycles in periglacial, extra Mediterranean refugia, and 2) postglacial recolonization of Fennoscandia originated from these refugia. I tested these hypotheses using mitochondrial sequence (mtCOI) and species specific microsatellite data. Additionally, I used future SDM to predict the impact of climate change induced range shifts and habitat loss on the overall genetic diversity of the endangered mayfly A. inopinatus.rnI observed old lineages, deep splits, and almost complete lineage sorting of mtCOI sequences between mountain ranges. These results support the hypothesis that both species persisted in multiple periglacial extra-Mediterranean refugia in Central Europe during the LGM. However, the recolonization of Fennoscandia was very different between the two study species. For the mayfly A. inopinatus I found strong differentiation between the Fennoscandian and all other populations in sequence and microsatellite data, indicating that Fennoscandia was recolonized from an extra European refugium. High mtCOI genetic structure within Fennoscandia supports a recolonization of multiple lineages from independent refugia. However, this structure was not apparent in the microsatellite data, consistent with secondary contact without sexual incompability. In contrast, the stonefly A. compacta exhibited low genetic structure and shared mtCOI haplotypes among Fennoscandia and the Black Forest, suggesting a shared Pleistocene refugium in the periglacial tundrabelt. Again, there is incongruence with the microsatellite data, which could be explained with ancestral polymorphism or female-biased dispersal. Future SDM projects major regional habitat loss for the mayfly A. inopinatus, particularly in Central European mountain ranges. By relating these range shifts to my population genetic results, I identified conservation units primarily in Eastern Europe, that if preserved would maintain high levels of the present-day genetic diversity of A. inopinatus and continue to provide long-term suitable habitat under future climate warming scenarios.rnIn this thesis I show that despite similar present day distributions the underlying demographic histories of the study species are vastly different, which might be due to differing dispersal capabilities and niche plasticity. I present genetic, climatic, and ecological data that can be used to prioritize conservation efforts for cold-adapted freshwater insects in light of future climate change. Overall, this thesis provides a next step in filling the knowledge gap regarding molecular studies of the arctic-alpine invertebrate fauna. However, there is continued need to explore the phenomenon of arctic-alpine disjunctions to help understand the processes of range expansion, regression, and lineage diversification in Europe’s high latitude and high altitude biota.

Methodological approaches to estimate human population exposure to chemical substances

The public awareness that chemical substances are present ubiquitously in the environment, can be assumed through the diet and can exhibit various health effects, is very high in Europe and Italy. National and international institutions are called to provide figures on the magnitude, frequency, and duration of the population exposure to chemicals, including both natural or anthropogenic substances, voluntarily added to consumers’ good or accidentally entering the production chains. This thesis focuses broadly on how human population exposure to chemicals can be estimated, with particular attention to the methodological approaches and specific focus on dietary exposure assessment and biomonitoring. From the results obtained in the different studies collected in this thesis, it has been pointed out that when selecting the approach to use for the estimate of the exposure to chemicals, several different aspects must be taken into account: the nature of the chemical substance, the population of interest, clarify if the objective is to assess chronic or acute exposure, and finally, take into account the quality and quantity of data available in order to specify and quantify the uncertainty of the estimate.

Molecular genetic investigation of the Neolithic population history in the western Carpathian Basin

Der Fokus dieser Dissertation ist die populationsgenetische Analyse der neolithischen Bevölkerungswechsel in den 6.-5. Jahrtausende vor Christus, die im westlichen Karpatenbecken stattfanden. Die Zielsetzung der Studie war, mittels der Analyse von mitochondrialer und Y-chromosomaler aDNA, den Genpool der sechs neolithischen und kupferzeitlichen Populationen zu untersuchen und die daraus resultierenden Ergebnisse mit anderen prähistorischen und modernen genetischen Daten zu vergleichen.rnInsgesamt wurden 323 Individuen aus 32 ungarischen, kroatischen und slowakischen Fundplätzen beprobt und bearbeitet in den archäogenetischen Laboren der Johannes Gutenberg-Universität in Mainz. Die DNA Ergebnisse wurden mit verschiedenen populationsgenetischen Methoden ausgewertet. Vergleichsdaten von prähistorischen und modernen eurasiatischen Populationen wurden dazu gesammelt.rnDie HVS-I Region der mitochondrialen DNA konnten bei 256 Individuen reproduziert und authentifiziert werden (mit einer Erfolgsrate von 85.9%). Die Typisierung der HVS-II Region war in 80 Fällen erfolgreich. Testend alle gut erhaltene Proben, die Y-chromosomale Haplogruppe konnte in 33 männlichen Individuen typisiert werden.rnDie neolithischen, mitochondrialen Haplogruppen deuten auf eine hohe Variabilität des maternalen Genpools hin. Sowohl die mitochondrialen als auch die Y-chromosomalen Daten lassen Rückschlüsse auf eine nah-östliche bzw. südwestasiatische Herkunft der frühen Bauern zu. Die Starčevo- und linearbandkermaischen-Populationen in westlichem Karpatenbecken (letztere abgekürzt als LBKT) und die linearbandkermaischen-Population in Mitteleuropa (LBK) haben so starke genetische Ähnlichkeit, dass die Verbreitung der LBK nach Mitteleuropa mit vorangegangenen Wanderungsereignissen zu erklären ist. Die Transdanubische aDNA Daten zeigen hohe Affinität zu den publizierten prähistorischen aDNA Datensätzen von Mitteleuropa aus den 6.-4. Jahrtausende vor Chr. Die maternal-genetische Variabilität der Starčevo-Population konnte auch innerhalb der nachfolgenden Populationen Transdanubiens festgestellt werden. Nur kleinere Infiltrationen und Immigrationsereignissen konnten während der Vinča-, LBKT-, Sopot- und Balaton-Lasinja-Kultur in Transdanubien identifiziert werden. Zwischen den transdanubischen Regionen konnten mögliche genetische Unterschiede nur in der LBKT und in der Lengyel-Periode beobachtet werden, als sich die nördlichen Gruppen von den südlichen Populationen trennten. rnDie festgestellte Heterogenität der mtDNA in Zusammenhang mit der Y-chromosomalen Homogenität in den Starčevo- und LBK-Populationen, weisen auf patrilokale Residenzregeln und patrilineare Abstammungsregeln in den ersten Bauergemeinschaften hin. rnObwohl die hier präsentierten Daten einen großen Fortschritt in der Forschung von aDNA und Neolithikum des Karpatenbeckens und Mitteleuropas bedeuten, werfen sie auch mehrere Fragen auf, deren Beantwortung durch zukünftige Genomforschungen erbracht werden könnte.

Trust and Social Networks in a Changing Europe.

This project set out to investigate the effects of the recent massive social transitions in Eastern Europe on the everyday social lives of the inhabitants of three very different nations: Georgia, Russia and Hungary. It focused in particular on the availability and nature of the support networks available to three different segments of each of the societies (manual workers, students and entrepreneurs) and the impact of network participation on psychological and physical well-being. The group set four specific questions to investigate: the part played by individual psychological beliefs in the formation and maintenance of social networks and the consequent formation of trusting relations; the implication of the size and quality of these networks for mental health; the nature of the social groups inhabited by the respondents and the implication of their work schedule and daily routines on the maintenance of a social and family life; and an analysis of how cultures vary in their social networks and intimacy. Three different methods were used to examine social support and its implications: structured questionnaires, semi-structured short interviews and a media analysis of newspaper materials. The questionnaires were administered to 150 participants in each country, equally divided between students studying full time, manual workers employed in factories, and business people (small kiosk owners, whose work and life style differs considerably from that of the manual workers). The questionnaires investigated various predictors of social support including the locus of control, relationship beliefs, individualism-collectivism and egalitarianism, demographic variables (age, gender and occupation), social support, both in general and in relation to significant events that have occurred since the transition from communism. Those with an internal locus of control were more likely to report a higher level of social support, as were collectivists, while age too was a significant predictor, with younger respondents enjoying higher levels of support, regardless of the measures of support employed. Respondents across the cultures referred to a decline of social support and the group also found a direct correlation between social support and mental health outcomes. All 450 respondents were interviewed on their general responses to changes in their lives since the fall of communism and the effects of their work lives on their social lives and the home environment. The interviews revealed considerable variations in the way in which work-life offered opportunities for a broader social life and also provided a hindrance to the development of fulfilling relationships. Many of the work experiences discussed were culture specific, with work having a particularly negative impact on the social life of Russian entrepreneurs but being seen much more positively in Georgia. This may reflect the nature of support offered in a society as overall support levels were lowest in Russia, meaning that social support may be of particular importance there. The way in cultural values and norms about personal relationships are transmitted in a culture is a critical issue for social psychologists and the group examined newspaper articles in those newspapers read by the respondents in each of the three countries. These revealed a number of different themes. The concept of a divided society and its implications for personal relationships was clearest in Russian and Hungary, where widely-read newspapers dwelt on the contrast between "new Russians/Hungarians" and the older, poorer ones and extended considerable sympathy to those suffering from neglect in institutions. Magyar Nemzet, a paper widely read by Hungarian students reflects the generally more pessimistic tone about personal relationships in Russia and Hungary and gave a particularly detailed analysis of the implications this holds for human relations in a modern society. In Georgia, however, the tone of the newspapers is more positive, stressing greater social cohesion. Part of this cohesion is framed in the context of religion, with the church appealing to a broader egalitarianism, whereas in less egalitarian Hungary appeals by the Church are centred more on the nuclear family and its need for expansion in both size and influence. The division between the sexes was another prominent issue in Hungary and Russia, while the theme of generational conflict also emerged in Hungarian and Georgian papers, although with some understanding of "young people today". The team's original expectation that the different newspapers read by the different groups of respondents would present differing images of personal relationships was not fulfilled, as despite variations in style, they found little clear "ideological targeting" of any particular readership. They conclude that the vast majority of respondents recognised that the social transition from communism has had a significant impact on the well-being of social relationships and that this is a pertinent issue for all segments of society. While the group see the data collected as a source to be worked on for some time in the future, their initial impressions include the following. Social support is clearly an important concern across all three countries. All respondents (including the students) lament the time taken up by their heavy work schedules and value their social networks and family ties in particular. The level of social support differs across the countries investigated, with Georgian apparently enjoying significantly higher levels of social support. The analysis produced an image of a relatively cohesive and egalitarian society in which even the group most often seen as distant from the general population, business people, is supported by a strong social network. In contrast, the support networks available to the Russian respondents seem particularly weak and reflect a general sense of division and alienation within the culture as a whole. The implications of low levels of social support may vary across countries. While Russians reported the lowest level of mental health problems, the link between social support and mental health may be strongest in that country. In contrast, in Hungary it is the link between fatalism and mental health problems which is particularly strong, while in Georgia the strongest correlation was between mental health and marital quality, emphasising the significance of the marital relationship in that country.

The New Electoral Geography of Central Europe

Zarycki studied the political map of Central Europe today on the basis of results of recent parliamentary and/or presidential elections in the Czech Republic, Hungary, L8ithuania, Poland, Slovakia and Ukraine. He identified first the structure of regional political cleavages, then the spatial patterns emerging in different countries. He also considered the significance and eventual regional differentiation of various possible influences on these patterns, including urbanisation, historical heritage, ethnic factors, population movements, economic differentiation, the effects of the transformation, demographic factors, education and religion. Virtually all the countries showed a cleavage between more traditional, anti (or non-) communist regions and secular areas with higher post-communist support. Except in Ukraine and the Czech Republic, the post-communist party is dominated by the direct heirs of the former communist parties transformed into moderate left parties. The second major class of cleavages was typical of the Visegrad countries, i.e. the conflict between liberal, mostly metropolitan, regions and a different periphery, usually with a strong populist or anti-liberal appeal. This usually depends on the existence of a sizeable well-educated class, usually pro-market and pro-Western, and on the resolution of the conflict between post and anti-Communists. The third type of cleavage is based on ethnic factors and is clearest in Lithuania and Slovakia, where there are large ethnic minorities. Of factors influencing political behaviour, the two major ones identified were the historical heritage and urbanisation.

A common ancestral glycoprotein (GP) 9 1828A>G (Asn45Ser) gene mutation occurring in European families from Australia and Northern Europe with Bernard-Soulier Syndrome (BSS)

Bernard-Soulier syndrome (BSS) is an extremely rare hereditary bleeding disorder, caused by mutations occurring in the Glycoprotein (GP) Ibalpha, GPIbbeta and GP9 genes that encode for the corresponding subunits of platelet GPIb-V-IX adhesion receptor complex. BSS has been reported in many populations, mostly behaving in an autosomal-recessive manner.While the great majority of BSS mutations are unique to a single individual or family, the GP9 1828A>G Asn45Ser mutation, which we have identified in an undocumented Australian Caucasian, has already been reported in multiple unrelated Caucasian families from various Northern and Central European countries. Haplotype analysis of 19 BSS patients from 15 unrelated Northern European families (including 2 compound heterozygote siblings from a British family previously published, and 17 1828A>G Asn45Ser homozygotes), showed that 14 of these BSS patients from 11 of the 1828A>G Asn45Ser homozygote families share a common haplotype at the chromosomal region 3' to the GP9 gene. Hence, the results suggest that the GP9 1828A>GAsn45Ser mutation in these families is ancient, and its frequent emergence in the European population is the result of a founder effect rather than recurrent mutational events. Association of the 1828A>G Asn45Ser mutation with variant haplotypes in 4 other Northern European BSS families raised the possibility of a second founder event, or rare recombinations in these families. Additional members from these 'atypical' lineages would need to be screened to resolve this question.