Which fiscal union for the euro area? Bruegel Policy Contribution ISSUE 2016/05, February 2016

At the current level of political and societal integration, a large federal budget is unrealistic in the euro area. The authors make three recommendations that would lead national fiscal policies to be more stabilising with respect to the economic cycle, while achieving long-term sustainability. They also recommend a move towards a European unemployment insurance scheme targeted at ‘large’ shocks, and a minimum set of labour-market harmonisation criteria.

The Impact of the ECB’s Asset Purchase Programmes on Sovereign Bond Spreads in the Euro Area. Bruges European Economic Research Papers 35/2015

This paper estimates the immediate impact of the European Central Bank’s asset purchase programmes on sovereign bond spreads in the euro area between 2008 and 2015 using a country-by-country GARCH model. The baseline estimates are rigorously diagnosed for misspecification and subjected to a wide range of sensitivity tests. Among others, changes in the dependent variable, the independent variables and the number of (G)ARCH terms are tested. Moreover, the model is applied to subsamples and dynamic conditional correlations are analyzed to estimate the effects of the asset purchases on the contagion of spread movements. Generally, it is found that the asset purchase programmes triggered an reduction of sovereign bond spreads. More specifically, the Securities Markets Programme (SMP) had the most significant immediate effects on sovereign bond spreads across the euro area. The announcements related to the Outright Monetary Transactions (OMT) programme also yielded substantial spread compression in the periphery. In contrast to that, the most recent Public Sector Purchase Programme (PSPP) announced in January 2015 and implemented since March 2015 had no significant immediate effects on sovereign bond spreads, except for Irish spreads. Hence, immediate effects seem to be dependent upon the size of the programme, the extent to which it targets distressed sovereigns and the way in which it is communicated.

How Germany Benefits from the Euro in Economic Terms. Policy Brief #2013/01

There can be no doubt about the fact that Germany benefits from the euro in a significant number of ways. For ex-ample, monetary union membership helps to reduce the cost of international trade, and provides protection against excessive exchange rate volatility. This means that even if Germany had to write off a large percentage of the loans that it has made available to the heavily indebted states of southern Europe as part of the various euro rescue measures, the economic advantages of its membership of the monetary union would continue to predominate. Reverting to the deutschmark would thus be disadvantageous even in purely economic terms.

Europe’s Sustainability Strategy - A Casualty of the Euro Crisis or an Ambitious Restart?. Policy Brief #2013/06

Europe’s economy should not just grow, it should also target social inclusion and the responsible use of resources. The goal of sustainability may be embedded in the Treaty on European Union and the EU’s economic strategies, but the emphasis on GDP growth and competitiveness in battling the crisis threatens to undermine efforts to establish a common approach for sustainable economic activity. This may be unavoidable during an acute crisis. But in the long term, the EU must show the way forward.

Europe's Sustainability Strategy - A Casualty of the Euro Crisis or an Ambition Restart? Bertelsmann Policy Brief #2013/06, 30.11.2013

Europe’s economy should not just grow, it should also target social inclusion and the responsible use of resources. The goal of sustainability may be embedded in the Treaty on European Union and the EU’s economic strategies, but the emphasis on GDP growth and competitiveness in battling the crisis threatens to undermine efforts to establish a common approach for sustainable economic activity. This may be unavoidable during an acute crisis. But in the long term, the EU must show the way forward.

Growth and Euro Area Stability: The Double Dividend of a Deepened European Single Market for Services. Bertelsmann Stiftung Background Note 26 June 2015

The European Commission’s recent single market initiatives have a second important benefit beyond growth that is often overlooked: Deepening the Single Market for goods and services can also reduce imbalances in the euro area and limit its vulnerability to crises. A further integration of the Single Market thus provides a double dividend of growth and stability. This is the main issue addressed in this background note.

The price elasticity of the Euro to movements in foreign reserves through European Central Bank intevention

The Euro has been used as the largest weighting element in a basket of currencies for forex arrangements adopted by several Central European countries outside the European Union (EU). The paper uses a new time-series approach to examine the relationship between the Euro exchange rate and the level of foreign reserves. It employs Zero-no-zero (ZNZ) patterned vector error-correction (VECM) modelling to investigate Granger causal relations among foreign reserves, the European Monetary Union money supply and the Euro exchange rate. The findings confirm that foreign reserves may influence movements in the Euro's exchange rate. Further, ZNZ patterned VECM modelling with exogenous variables is used to estimate the amount of foreign reserves currently required in order to again achieve a targetted Euro exchange rate

Pharmacological treatment and perceived health status during 1-year follow up in patients diagnosed with coronary artery disease, but ineligible for revascularization. Results from the Euro Heart Survey on Coronary Revascularization

Background It has been recognized that a clinically significant portion of patients with coronary artery disease (CAD) continue to experience anginal and other related symptoms that are refractory to the combination of medical therapy and revascularization. The Euro Heart Survey on Revascularization (EHSCR) provided an opportunity to assess pharmacological treatment and outcome in patients with proven CAD who were ineligible for revascularization. Methods We performed a secondary analysis of EHS-CR data. After excluding patients with ST-elevation myocardial infarction and those in whom revascularization was not indicated, 4409 patients remained in the analyses. We selected two groups: (1) patients in whom revascularization was the preferred treatment option (n = 3777, 86%), and (2) patients who were considered ineligible for revascularization (n = 632, 14%). Results Patient ineligible for revascularization had a worse risk profile, more often had a total occlusion (59% vs. 37%, p < 0.001), were treated more often with ACE-inhibitors (65% vs. 55%, p < 0.001) but less likely with aspirin (83% vs. 88%, p < 0.001). Overall, they had higher case-fatality at 1-year (7.0% vs. 3.7%, p < 0.001). Regarding self-perceived health status, measured via the EuroQol 5D (EQ-5D) questionnaire, these same patients reported more problems on all dimensions of the EQ-5D. Furthermore, in the revascularization group we observed an increase between discharge and 1-year follow up (utility score from 0.85 to 1.00) whereas patients ineligible for revascularization did not improve over time (utility score remained 0.80) Conclusion In this large cohort of European patients with CAD, those considered ineligible for revascularization had more co-morbidities and risk factors, and scored worse on self-perceived health status as compared to revascularized patients in the revascularization group. With the exception of ACE-inhibitors and aspirin, there were no major differences regarding drug treatment between the two groups. Given these clinically significant observations, there appears to be a role for nurse-led, multidisciplinary, rehabilitation teams that target clinically vulnerable patients whose symptoms remain refractory to standard medical care.

A INTEGRAÇÃO ORIENTE-OCIDENTE E OS FUNDAMENTOS DO JUDÔ EDUCATIVO

Desenvolvido em 1882 por Jigoro Kano a partir de seus estudos sobre as escolas de jujutsu, o Judô Kodokan surgiu dentro do espaço escolar a partir de três pilares básicos: como método de luta (arte marcial), como método de treinamento físico (educação física), como método de treinamento mental (desenvolvimento moral e intelectual) onde o Do (caminho) é o foco principal a ser ensinado em vista de beneficiar a sociedade. Uma das principais contribuições de Kano foi a transformação de uma prática de luta marcial em um método educativo. Tal processo ocorreu num momento histórico marcado por mudanças sociais no Japão que passou a receber forte influência do mundo ocidental durante a era Meiji. Naquela época os valores, pensamentos, instituições e linguagens orientais e ocidentais circulavam e se fundiam marcando um forte sincretismo em diversos espaços sociais. Teria Jigoro Kano absorvido essas influências ao desenvolver o judô? Essa possível ligação entre o Oriente e o Ocidente, preservando parte da cultura tradicional japonesa e permitindo a influência de pensamentos e práticas ocidentais, possui extrema relevância para a atualidade uma vez que muito se fala em retornar as formulações que deram origem ao Judô. Afinal, que formulações são estas e até que ponto devemos adotá-las sem uma profunda reflexão? No transcorrer da história e, mais precisamente ao final da 2ª guerra mundial, o judô perde boa parte dos conceitos e fundamentos que fazem sua ligação com a linguagem e o pensamento oriental bem como seu significado educativo original em função da sua expansão pelo mundo como prática esportiva. Assim o estudo tem como objetivos: 1) identificar os fundamentos do judô educativo segundo a influência do processo de integração Oriente-Ocidente; 2) Analisar a relação Oriente-Ocidente durante a transformação do Judô de método educativo para prática esportiva; 3) Organizar elementos estruturantes para estabelecer os fundamentos do judô educativo contemporâneo analisando a influência da integração Oriente-Ocidente nesse processo, partindo do modelo sistêmico de pensamento de Jigoro Kano ao elaborar o Judô Kodokan reorganizando suas referências conceituais a partir da Ciência da Motricidade Humana. Trata-se de um estudo teórico, de caráter bibliográfico, que se apropria da antropologia filosófica como suporte metodológico. Os resultados da pesquisa afirmam o processo de integração Oriente-Ocidente na formulação dos conceitos educativo/filosóficos do judô além das transformações dos sistemas simbólicos da luta que apontam sua evolução antropológico-filosófica, desde a prática do Bujutsu (Arte militar sec. XVII) no Japão medieval, até as perspectivas educativas contemporâneas apoiadas na Ciência da Motricidade Humana (CMH).

A comparison of linear forecasting models and neural networks:an application to Euro inflation and Euro Divisia

Linear models reach their limitations in applications with nonlinearities in the data. In this paper new empirical evidence is provided on the relative Euro inflation forecasting performance of linear and non-linear models. The well established and widely used univariate ARIMA and multivariate VAR models are used as linear forecasting models whereas neural networks (NN) are used as non-linear forecasting models. It is endeavoured to keep the level of subjectivity in the NN building process to a minimum in an attempt to exploit the full potentials of the NN. It is also investigated whether the historically poor performance of the theoretically superior measure of the monetary services flow, Divisia, relative to the traditional Simple Sum measure could be attributed to a certain extent to the evaluation of these indices within a linear framework. Results obtained suggest that non-linear models provide better within-sample and out-of-sample forecasts and linear models are simply a subset of them. The Divisia index also outperforms the Simple Sum index when evaluated in a non-linear framework. © 2005 Taylor & Francis Group Ltd.

A composite leading indicator of the inflation cycle for the Euro area

We evaluate the performance of composite leading indicators of turning points of inflation in the Euro area, constructed by combining the techniques of Fourier analysis and Kalman filters with the National Bureau of Economic Research methodology. In addition, the study compares the empirical performance of Euro Simple Sum and Divisia monetary aggregates and provides a tentative answer to the issue of whether or not the UK should join the Euro area. Our findings suggest that, first, the cyclical pattern of the different composite leading indicators very closely reflect that of the inflation cycle for the Euro area; second, the empirical performance of the Euro Divisia is better than its Simple Sum counterpart and third, the UK is better out of the Euro area. © 2005 Taylor & Francis Group Ltd.

Admissible monetary aggregates for the Euro area

We use the Fleissig and Whitney (2003) weak separability test to determine admissible levels of monetary aggregation for the Euro area. We find that the Euro area monetary assets in M2 and M3 are weakly separable and construct admissible Divisia monetary aggregates for these assets. We evaluate the Divisia aggregates as indicator variables, building on Nelson (2002), Reimers (2002), and Stracca (2004). Specifically, we show that real growth of the admissible Divisia aggregates enter the Euro area IS curve positively and significantly for the period from 1980 to 2005. Out of sample, we show that Divisia M2 and M3 appear to contain useful information for forecasting Euro area inflation.