A Study of How Economic Attitudes Are Shaped by Environmental Shocks and Life Experiences

Social attitudes, attitudes toward financial risk and attitudes toward deferred gratification are thought to influence many important economic decisions over the life-course. In economic theory, these attitudes are key components in diverse models of behavior, including collective action, saving and investment decisions and occupational choice. The relevance of these attitudes have been confirmed empirically. Yet, the factors that influence them are not well understood. This research evaluates how these attitudes are affected by large disruptive events, namely, a natural disaster and a civil conflict, and also by an individual-specific life event, namely, having children.

By implementing rigorous empirical strategies drawing on rich longitudinal datasets, this research project advances our understanding of how life experiences shape these attitudes. Moreover, compelling evidence is provided that the observed changes in attitudes are likely to reflect changes in preferences given that they are not driven just by changes in financial circumstances. Therefore the findings of this research project also contribute to the discussion of whether preferences are really fixed, a usual assumption in economics.

In the first chapter, I study how altruistic and trusting attitudes are affected by exposure to the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami as long as ten years after the disaster occurred. Establishing a causal relationship between natural disasters and attitudes presents several challenges as endogenous exposure and sample selection can confound the analysis. I take on these challenges by exploiting plausibly exogenous variation in exposure to the tsunami and by relying on a longitudinal dataset representative of the pre-tsunami population in two districts of Aceh, Indonesia. The sample is drawn from the Study of the Tsunami Aftermath and Recovery (STAR), a survey with data collected both before and after the disaster and especially designed to identify the impact of the tsunami. The altruistic and trusting attitudes of the respondents are measured by their behavior in the dictator and trust games. I find that witnessing closely the damage caused by the tsunami but without suffering severe economic damage oneself increases altruistic and trusting behavior, particularly towards individuals from tsunami affected communities. Having suffered severe economic damage has no impact on altruistic behavior but may have increased trusting behavior. These effects do not seem to be caused by the consequences of the tsunami on people’s financial situation. Instead they are consistent with how experiences of loss and solidarity may have shaped social attitudes by affecting empathy and perceptions of who is deserving of aid and trust.

In the second chapter, co-authored with Ryan Brown, Duncan Thomas and Andrea Velasquez, we investigate how attitudes toward financial risk are affected by elevated levels of insecurity and uncertainty brought on by the Mexican Drug War. To conduct our analysis, we pair the Mexican Family Life Survey (MxFLS), a rich longitudinal dataset ideally suited for our purposes, with a dataset on homicide rates at the month and municipality-level. The homicide rates capture well the overall crime environment created by the drug war. The MxFLS elicits risk attitudes by asking respondents to choose between hypothetical gambles with different payoffs. Our strategy to identify a causal effect has two key components. First, we implement an individual fixed effects strategy which allows us to control for all time-invariant heterogeneity. The remaining time variant heterogeneity is unlikely to be correlated with changes in the local crime environment given the well-documented political origins of the Mexican Drug War. We also show supporting evidence in this regard. The second component of our identification strategy is to use an intent-to-treat approach to shield our estimates from endogenous migration. Our findings indicate that exposure to greater local-area violent crime results in increased risk aversion. This effect is not driven by changes in financial circumstances, but may be explained instead by heightened fear of victimization. Nonetheless, we find that having greater economic resources mitigate the impact. This may be due to individuals with greater economic resources being able to avoid crime by affording better transportation or security at work.

The third chapter, co-authored with Duncan Thomas, evaluates whether attitudes toward deferred gratification change after having children. For this study we also exploit the MxFLS, which elicits attitudes toward deferred gratification (commonly known as time discounting) by asking individuals to choose between hypothetical payments at different points in time. We implement a difference-in-difference estimator to control for all time-invariant heterogeneity and show that our results are robust to the inclusion of time varying characteristics likely correlated with child birth. We find that becoming a mother increases time discounting especially in the first two years after childbirth and in particular for those women without a spouse at home. Having additional children does not have an effect and the effect for men seems to go in the opposite direction. These heterogeneous effects suggest that child rearing may affect time discounting due to generated stress or not fully anticipated spending needs.

Inter-Species Microbial Sharing in Rural Madagascar: A Study of Environmental Influences on the Skin Microbiome

The skin is home to trillions of microbes, many of which are recently implicated in immune system regulation and various health conditions (33). The skin is continuously exposed to the outside environment, inviting microbial transfer between human skin and the people, animals, and surfaces with which an individual comes into contact. Thus, the aim of this study is to assess how different environmental exposures influence skin microbe communities, as this can strengthen our understanding of how microbial variation relates to health outcomes. This study investigated the skin microbial communities of humans and domesticated cattle living in rural Madagascar. The V3 region of the 16S rRNA gene was sequenced from samples of zebu (the domesticated cattle of Madagascar), zebu owners, and non-zebu owners. Overall, human armpits were the least diverse sample site, while ankles were the most diverse. The diversity of zebu samples was significantly different from armpits, irrespective of zebu ownership (one-way ANOVA and Tukey’s HSD, p<0.05). However, zebu owner samples (from the armpit, ankle forearm, and hand) were more similar to other zebu owner samples than they were to zebu, yet no more similar to other zebu owner samples than they were to non-zebu owner samples (unweighted UniFrac distances, p<0.05). These data suggest a lack of a microbial signature shared by zebu owners and zebu, though further taxonomic analysis is required to explain the role of additional environmental variables in dictating the microbial communities of various samples sites. Understanding the magnitude and directionality of microbial sharing has implications for a breadth of microbe-related health outcomes, with the potential to explain mosquito host preference and mitigate the threats of vector-borne diseases.

Predicting Forest Responses to Changing Environmental Conditions

Forests change with changes in their environment based on the physiological responses of individual trees. These short-term reactions have cumulative impacts on long-term demographic performance. For a tree in a forest community, success depends on biomass growth to capture above- and belowground resources and reproductive output to establish future generations. Here we examine aspects of how forests respond to changes in moisture and light availability and how these responses are related to tree demography and physiology.

First we address the long-term pattern of tree decline before death and its connection with drought. Increasing drought stress and chronic morbidity could have pervasive impacts on forest composition in many regions. We use long-term, whole-stand inventory data from southeastern U.S. forests to show that trees exposed to drought experience multiyear declines in growth prior to mortality. Following a severe, multiyear drought, 72% of trees that did not recover their pre-drought growth rates died within 10 years. This pattern was mediated by local moisture availability. As an index of morbidity prior to death, we calculated the difference in cumulative growth after drought relative to surviving conspecifics. The strength of drought-induced morbidity varied among species and was correlated with species drought tolerance.

Next, we investigate differences among tree species in reproductive output relative to biomass growth with changes in light availability. Previous studies reach conflicting conclusions about the constraints on reproductive allocation relative to growth and how they vary through time, across species, and between environments. We test the hypothesis that canopy exposure to light, a critical resource, limits reproductive allocation by comparing long-term relationships between reproduction and growth for trees from 21 species in forests throughout the southeastern U.S. We found that species had divergent responses to light availability, with shade-intolerant species experiencing an alleviation of trade-offs between growth and reproduction at high light. Shade-tolerant species showed no changes in reproductive output across light environments.

Given that the above patterns depend on the maintenance of transpiration, we next developed an approach for predicting whole-tree water use from sap flux observations. Accurately scaling these observations to tree- or stand-levels requires accounting for variation in sap flux between wood types and with depth into the tree. We compared different models with sap flux data to test the hypotheses that radial sap flux profiles differ by wood type and tree size. We show that radial variation in sap flux is dependent on wood type but independent of tree size for a range of temperate trees. The best-fitting model predicted out-of-sample sap flux observations and independent estimates of sapwood area with small errors, suggesting robustness in new settings. We outline a method for predicting whole-tree water use with this model and include computer code for simple implementation in other studies.

Finally, we estimated tree water balances during drought with a statistical time-series analysis. Moisture limitation in forest stands comes predominantly from water use by the trees themselves, a drought-stand feedback. We show that drought impacts on tree fitness and forest composition can be predicted by tracking the moisture reservoir available to each tree in a mass balance. We apply this model to multiple seasonal droughts in a temperate forest with measurements of tree water use to demonstrate how species and size differences modulate moisture availability across landscapes. As trees deplete their soil moisture reservoir during droughts, a transpiration deficit develops, leading to reduced biomass growth and reproductive output.

This dissertation draws connections between the physiological condition of individual trees and their behavior in crowded, diverse, and continually-changing forest stands. The analyses take advantage of growing data sets on both the physiology and demography of trees as well as novel statistical techniques that allow us to link these observations to realistic quantitative models. The results can be used to scale up tree measurements to entire stands and address questions about the future composition of forests and the land’s balance of water and carbon.

Development of Advanced Capillary Electrophoresis Techniques with UV and Mass Spectrometry Detection for Forensic, Pharmaceutical and Environmental Applications

Capillary electrophoresis (CE) is a modern analytical technique, which is electrokinetic separation generated by high voltage and taken place inside the small capillaries. In this dissertation, several advanced capillary electrophoresis methods are presented using different approaches of CE and UV and mass spectrometry are utilized as the detection methods. Capillary electrochromatography (CEC), as one of the CE modes, is a recent developed technique which is a hybrid of capillary electrophoresis and high performance liquid chromatography (HPLC). Capillary electrochromatography exhibits advantages of both techniques. In Chapter 2, monolithic capillary column are fabricated using in situ photoinitiation polymerization method. The column was then applied for the separation of six antidepressant compounds. Meanwhile, a simple chiral separation method is developed and presented in Chapter 3. Beta cycodextrin was utilized to achieve the goal of chiral separation. Not only twelve cathinone analytes were separated, but also isomers of several analytes were enantiomerically separated. To better understand the molecular information on the analytes, the TOF-MS system was coupled with the CE. A sheath liquid and a partial filling technique (PFT) were employed to reduce the contamination of MS ionization source. Accurate molecular information was obtained. It is necessary to propose, develop, and optimize new techniques that are suitable for trace-level analysis of samples in forensic, pharmaceutical, and environmental applications. Capillary electrophoresis (CE) was selected for this task, as it requires lower amounts of samples, it simplifies sample preparation, and it has the flexibility to perform separations of neutral and charged molecules as well as enantiomers. Overall, the study demonstrates the versatility of capillary electrophoresis methods in forensic, pharmaceutical, and environmental applications.

Organic-walled dinoflagellate cysts and environmental analysis of surface sediments from the Northwest African upwelling area

In order to examine the spatial distribution of organic-walled dinoflagellate cysts (dinocysts) in recent sediments related to environmental conditions in the water column, thirty-two surface sediment samples from the NW African upwelling region (20-32°N) were investigated. Relative abundances of the dinocyst species show distinct regional differences allowing the separation of four hydrographic regimes. (1) In the area off Cape Ghir, which is characterized by most seasonal upwelling and river discharge, Lingulodinium machaerophorum strongly dominates the associations which are additionally characterized by cysts of Gymnodinium nolleri, cysts of Polykrikos kofoidii and cysts of Polykrikos schwartzii. (2) Off Cape Yubi, a region with increasing perennial upwelling, L. machaerophorum, Brigantedinium spp., species of the genus Impagidinium and cysts of Protoperidinium stellatum occur in highest relative abundances. (3) In coastal samples between Cape Ghir and Cape Yubi, Gymnodinium catenatum, species of the genus Impagidinium, Nematosphaeropsis labyrinthus, Operculodinium centrocarpum, cysts of P. stellatum and Selenopemphix nephroides determine the species composition. (4) Off Cape Blanc, where upwelling prevails perennially, and at offshore sites, heterotrophic dinocyst species show highest relative abundances. A Redundancy Analysis reveals fluvial mud, sea surface temperature and the depth of the mixed layer in boreal spring (spring) as the most important parameters relating to the dinocyst species association. Dinocyst accumulation rates were calculated for a subset of samples using well-constrained sedimentation rates. Highest accumulation rates with up to almost 80.000 cysts cm**-2 ky**-1 were found off Cape Ghir and Cape Yubi reflecting their eutrophic upwelling filaments. A Redundancy Analysis gives evidence that primary productivity and the input of fluvial mud are mostly related to the dinocyst association. By means of accumulation rate data, quantitative cyst production of individual species can be considered independently from the rest of the association, allowing autecological interpretations. We show that a combined interpretation of relative abundances and accumulation rates of dinocysts can lead to a better understanding of the productivity conditions off NW Africa.

(Figure 4) Stable carbon isotopic values and relative contents of biphytanes and sugars from sediment sample from the Peru margin and from the Pakistan margin

Glycolipids are prominent constituents in the membranes of cells from all domains of life. For example, diglycosyl-glycerol dibiphytanyl glycerol tetraethers (2Gly-GDGTs) are associated with methanotrophic ANME-1 archaea and heterotrophic benthic archaea, two archaeal groups of global biogeochemical importance. The hydrophobic biphytane moieties of 2Gly-GDGTs from these two uncultivated archaeal groups exhibit distinct carbon isotopic compositions. To explore whether the isotopic compositions of the sugar headgroups provide additional information on the metabolism of their producers, we developed a procedure to analyze the d13C values of glycosidic headgroups. Successful determination was achieved by (1) monitoring the contamination from free sugars during lipid extraction and preparation, (2) optimizing the hydrolytic conditions for glycolipids, and (3) derivatizing the resulting sugars into aldononitrile acetate derivatives, which are stable enough to withstand a subsequent column purification step. First results of d13C values of sugars cleaved from 2Gly-GDGTs in two marine sediment samples, one containing predominantly ANME-1 archaea and the other benthic archaea, were obtained and compared with the d13C values of the corresponding biphytanes. In both samples the dominant sugar headgroups were enriched in 13C relative to the corresponding major biphytane. This 13C enrichment was significantly larger in the putative major glycolipids from ANME-1 archaea (~15 per mil) than in those from benthic archaea (<7 per mil). This method opens a new analytical window for the examination of carbon isotopic relationships between sugars and lipids in uncultivated organisms.

Differential acid-base regulation in various gills of the green crab Carcinus maenas: Effects of elevated environmental pCO2

Euryhaline decapod crustaceans possess an efficient regulation apparatus located in the gill epithelia, providing a high adaptation potential to varying environmental abiotic conditions. Even though many studies focussed on the osmoregulatory capacity of the gills, acid-base regulatory mechanisms have obtained much less attention. In the present study, underlying principles and effects of elevated pCO2 on acid-base regulatory patterns were investigated in the green crab Carcinus maenas acclimated to diluted seawater. In gill perfusion experiments, all investigated gills 4-9 were observed to up-regulate the pH of the hemolymph by 0.1-0.2 units. Anterior gills, especially gill 4, were identified to be most efficient in the equivalent proton excretion rate. Ammonia excretion rates mirrored this pattern among gills, indicating a linkage between both processes. In specimen exposed to elevated pCO2 levels for at least 7 days, mimicking a future ocean scenario as predicted until the year 2300, hemolymph K+ and ammonia concentrations were significantly elevated, and an increased ammonia excretion rate was observed. A detailed quantitative gene expression analysis revealed that upon elevated pCO2 exposure, mRNA levels of transcripts hypothesized to be involved in ammonia and acid-base regulation (Rhesus-like protein, membrane-bound carbonic anhydrase, Na+/K+-ATPase) were affected predominantly in the non-osmoregulating anterior gills.

(Table 1) Sample locations and clay mineral data of sediment surface samples from the Barents Sea region

A new surface sediment sample set gained in the western Barents Sea by the MAREANO program has been analysed for basic clay mineral assemblages. Distribution maps including additional samples from earlier German research cruises to and off Svalbard are compiled. Some trends in the clay mineral assemblages are related to the sub-Barents Sea geology because the Quaternary sediment cover is rather thin. Additionally, land masses like Svalbard and northern Scandinavia dominate the clay mineral signal with their erosional products. Dense bottom water, very often of brine origin, that flows within deep troughs, such as the Storfjorden or Bear Island Trough, transport the clay mineral signal from their origin to the Norwegian-Greenland Sea.

Cape Lookout cold-water coral area, coral ages and environmental parameters for the last glacial cycle

Climatic and oceanographic changes, as occurring at a glacial-interglacial scale, may alter the environmental conditions needed for the development of prolific cold-water coral reefs and mounds. Studies constraining the temporal distribution of cold-water corals in the NE Atlantic suggested the cyclic changes of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation as the main driver for the development and dispersal of cold-water coral ecosystems. However, conclusions were hindered by lack of data from the NW Atlantic. Aiming to overcome this lack of data, the temporal occurrence of cold-water corals in the Cape Lookout area along the southeastern US margin was explored by U-series dating. Furthermore, the local influence of the regional water masses, namely the Gulf Stream, on cold-water coral proliferation and occurrence since the Last Glacial Maximum was examined. Results suggest that the occurrence of cold-water corals in the Cape Lookout area is restricted to interglacial periods, with corals being present during the last ~7 kyr and also during the Eemian (~125 ka). The reconstructed local environmental conditions suggest an offshore displacement of the Gulf Stream and increased influence from the Mid-Atlantic Bight shelf waters during the last glacial period. During the deglacial sea level rise, the Gulf Stream moved coastward providing present-day-like conditions to the surface waters. Nevertheless, present-day conditions at the ocean sea floor were not established before 7.5 cal ka BP once the ultimate demise of the Laurentide ice-sheet caused the final sea level rise and the displacement of the Gulf Stream to its present location. Occasional presence of the Gulf Stream over the site during the Mid- to Late Holocene coincides with enhanced bottom current strength and a slightly higher bottom water temperature, which are environmental conditions that are favorable for cold-water coral growth.

Sample locations, stratigraphic information and listing of carbon and oxygen isotope data of the measured planktonic foraminifera of surface sediments in the western South Atlantic Ocean (Table 1)

We explored the potential to use the stable isotopic compositions of planktonic foraminifera as a proxy for the position of the Brazil-Malvinas Confluence (BMC) in the Argentine Basin. For this purpose, we measured the oxygen and carbon isotopic compositions of Globigerinoides ruber (pink and white varieties measured separately), Globigerinoides trilobus, Globigerina bulloides, Globorotalia inflata and Globorotalia truncatulinoides (left- and right-coiling forms measured separately) from a latitudinal transect of 56 surface sediment samples from the continental slope off Brazil, Uruguay and Argentina between 20 and 48°S. Lowest oxygen isotopes values were found in G. ruber (pink), followed by G. ruber (white) and G. trilobus reflecting the highly stratified near surface water conditions north of the BMC. Globigerina bulloides was present mainly south of the BMC and records subsurface conditions supporting earlier plankton tow studies. Globorotalia inflata and G. truncatulinoides (left and right) were both available over the whole transect and calcify in the depth level with the steepest temperature change across the BMC. Accordingly, the delta18O of these species depict a sharp gradient of 2? at the confluence with remarkably stable values north and south of the BMC. Our data show that the oxygen isotopic composition of G. inflata and G. truncatulinoides (left and right) are the most reliable indicators for the present position of the BMC and can therefore be used to define the past migration of the front if appropriate cores are available.

Estimation of Sample Size and Power For Quantile Regression

Quantile regression (QR) was first introduced by Roger Koenker and Gilbert Bassett in 1978. It is robust to outliers which affect least squares estimator on a large scale in linear regression. Instead of modeling mean of the response, QR provides an alternative way to model the relationship between quantiles of the response and covariates. Therefore, QR can be widely used to solve problems in econometrics, environmental sciences and health sciences. Sample size is an important factor in the planning stage of experimental design and observational studies. In ordinary linear regression, sample size may be determined based on either precision analysis or power analysis with closed form formulas. There are also methods that calculate sample size based on precision analysis for QR like C.Jennen-Steinmetz and S.Wellek (2005). A method to estimate sample size for QR based on power analysis was proposed by Shao and Wang (2009). In this paper, a new method is proposed to calculate sample size based on power analysis under hypothesis test of covariate effects. Even though error distribution assumption is not necessary for QR analysis itself, researchers have to make assumptions of error distribution and covariate structure in the planning stage of a study to obtain a reasonable estimate of sample size. In this project, both parametric and nonparametric methods are provided to estimate error distribution. Since the method proposed can be implemented in R, user is able to choose either parametric distribution or nonparametric kernel density estimation for error distribution. User also needs to specify the covariate structure and effect size to carry out sample size and power calculation. The performance of the method proposed is further evaluated using numerical simulation. The results suggest that the sample sizes obtained from our method provide empirical powers that are closed to the nominal power level, for example, 80%.

Multivariate analysis of regional-scale geochemical data for environmental monitoring

A compositional multivariate approach is used to analyse regional scale soil geochemical data obtained as part of the Tellus Project generated by the Geological Survey Northern Ireland (GSNI). The multi-element total concentration data presented comprise XRF analyses of 6862 rural soil samples collected at 20cm depths on a non-aligned grid at one site per 2 km2. Censored data were imputed using published detection limits. Using these imputed values for 46 elements (including LOI), each soil sample site was assigned to the regional geology map provided by GSNI initially using the dominant lithology for the map polygon. Northern Ireland includes a diversity of geology representing a stratigraphic record from the Mesoproterozoic, up to and including the Palaeogene. However, the advance of ice sheets and their meltwaters over the last 100,000 years has left at least 80% of the bedrock covered by superficial deposits, including glacial till and post-glacial alluvium and peat. The question is to what extent the soil geochemistry reflects the underlying geology or superficial deposits. To address this, the geochemical data were transformed using centered log ratios (clr) to observe the requirements of compositional data analysis and avoid closure issues. Following this, compositional multivariate techniques including compositional Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and minimum/maximum autocorrelation factor (MAF) analysis method were used to determine the influence of underlying geology on the soil geochemistry signature. PCA showed that 72% of the variation was determined by the first four principal components (PC’s) implying “significant” structure in the data. Analysis of variance showed that only 10 PC’s were necessary to classify the soil geochemical data. To consider an improvement over PCA that uses the spatial relationships of the data, a classification based on MAF analysis was undertaken using the first 6 dominant factors. Understanding the relationship between soil geochemistry and superficial deposits is important for environmental monitoring of fragile ecosystems such as peat. To explore whether peat cover could be predicted from the classification, the lithology designation was adapted to include the presence of peat, based on GSNI superficial deposit polygons and linear discriminant analysis (LDA) undertaken. Prediction accuracy for LDA classification improved from 60.98% based on PCA using 10 principal components to 64.73% using MAF based on the 6 most dominant factors. The misclassification of peat may reflect degradation of peat covered areas since the creation of superficial deposit classification. Further work will examine the influence of underlying lithologies on elemental concentrations in peat composition and the effect of this in classification analysis.

Methods for Confounding Adjustment and High-Dimensional Environmental Exposures

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-08