Forward-looking versus recursive-dynamic modeling in climate policy analysis: A comparison

This paper develops a multi-regional general equilibrium model for climate policy analysis based on the latest version of the MIT Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model. We develop two versions so that we can solve the model either as a fully inter-temporal optimization problem (forward-looking, perfect foresight) or recursively. The standard EPPA model on which these models are based is solved recursively, and it is necessary to simplify some aspects of it to make inter-temporal solution possible. The forward-looking capability allows one to better address economic and policy issues such as borrowing and banking of GHG allowances, efficiency implications of environmental tax recycling, endogenous depletion of fossil resources, international capital flows, and optimal emissions abatement paths among others. To evaluate the solution approaches, we benchmark each version to the same macroeconomic path, and then compare the behavior of the two versions under a climate policy that restricts greenhouse gas emissions. We find that the energy sector and CO(2) price behavior are similar in both versions (in the recursive version of the model we force the inter-temporal theoretical efficiency result that abatement through time should be allocated such that the CO(2) price rises at the interest rate.) The main difference that arises is that the macroeconomic costs are substantially lower in the forward-looking version of the model, since it allows consumption shifting as an additional avenue of adjustment to the policy. On the other hand, the simplifications required for solving the model as an optimization problem, such as dropping the full vintaging of the capital stock and fewer explicit technological options, likely have effects on the results. Moreover, inter-temporal optimization with perfect foresight poorly represents the real economy where agents face high levels of uncertainty that likely lead to higher costs than if they knew the future with certainty. We conclude that while the forward-looking model has value for some problems, the recursive model produces similar behavior in the energy sector and provides greater flexibility in the details of the system that can be represented. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Maternal investment in egg production: environmental and population-specific effects on offspring performance in the snapping shrimp Alpheus nuttingi (Schmitt, 1924) (Decapoda, Alpheidae)

Among marine invertebrates, the overall biomass invested in egg production varies widely within populations, which can result from the interaction of endogenous and exogenous factors. Species that have constant reproduction throughout the year can be good models to study the influence of environmental factors on reproductive processes. We conducted a seasonal comparison of egg production in the intertidal snapping shrimp Alpheus nuttingi, which shows a continuous reproductive pattern, to examine the hypothesis that differences in egg production are driven by environmental conditions and population features. This population showed an uncommon strategy, characterized by females that produce eggs of varying sizes within their clutches, with reduced egg volume when the number of eggs is higher (Spring-Summer). In these seasons, higher temperatures and greater food availability may allow the production of more eggs compared to the Autumn-Winter seasons. Compared to other alpheid shrimps, this population produces small eggs, but in larger numbers. Despite the higher fecundity, the reproductive output is relatively low, this production being supported by the large size of females from the southern Atlantic region. Our findings showed that the egg production of A. nuttingi was greatly influenced by environmental factors. Therefore, this shrimp, and probably other decapods that possess continuous reproduction, adopt different reproductive strategies during the year. (C) Koninklijke Brill NV, Leiden, 2010.

Closely related Symbiodinium spp. differ in relative dominance in coral reef host communities across environmental, latitudinal and biogeographic gradients

The diversity and community structures of symbiotic dinoflagellates are described from reef invertebrates in southern and central provinces of the Great Barrier Reef (GBR), Australia, and Zamami Island, Okinawa, Japan. The symbiont assemblages from region to region were dominated by Clade C Symbiodinium spp. and consisted of numerous host-specific and/or rare types (specialists), and several types common to many hosts (generalists). Prevalence in the host community among certain host-generalist symbionts differed between inshore and offshore environments, across latitudinal (central versus southern GBR) gradients, and over wide geographic ranges (GBR versus Okinawa). One particular symbiont (C3h) from the GBR had a dramatic shift in dominance. Its prevalence ranged from being extremely rare, or absent on high-latitude reefs to dominating the scleractinian diversity on a mid-latitude inshore reef. These changes occurred among coral fauna whose larvae must acquire symbionts from environmental sources (horizontal symbiont acquisition). Such differences did not occur among 'vertical transmitters' such as Porites spp., Montipora spp. and pocilloporids (corals that directly transmit symbionts to their offspring) or among those hosts displaying 'horizontal acquisition', but that associate with specific symbionts. Most host-specialized types were found to be characteristic of a particular geographic region (i.e. Okinawa versus Central GBR versus Southern GBR). The mode of symbiont acquisition may play an important role in how symbiont composition may shift in west Pacific host communities in response to climate change. There is no indication that recent episodes of mass bleaching have provoked changes in host-symbiont combinations from the central GBR.

Effect of early malnutrition and environmental stimulation in the performance of rats in the elevated plus maze

Malnourished rats since birth (mothers fed on 6% of protein) or controlled ones (16% of protein), half of each group received environmental stimulation (ES) from the age of 0-35th day, were studied. The performance in the elevated plus maze (EPM) was assessed on the last day. ES increased time spent and also the entries into open arms of EPM, but malnourished non-stimulated rats visited more segments near the central area than the distant ones. Data suggests an anxiolytic effect of ES which is less evident in malnourished rats. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

QUADRANT-SEARCHING: A NEW TECHNIQUE TO REDUCE THE SEARCH SPACE OF THE INVERSE PROBLEM OF EIT USING BEM TO THE DIRECT PROBLEM

The image reconstruction using the EIT (Electrical Impedance Tomography) technique is a nonlinear and ill-posed inverse problem which demands a powerful direct or iterative method. A typical approach for solving the problem is to minimize an error functional using an iterative method. In this case, an initial solution close enough to the global minimum is mandatory to ensure the convergence to the correct minimum in an appropriate time interval. The aim of this paper is to present a new, simple and low cost technique (quadrant-searching) to reduce the search space and consequently to obtain an initial solution of the inverse problem of EIT. This technique calculates the error functional for four different contrast distributions placing a large prospective inclusion in the four quadrants of the domain. Comparing the four values of the error functional it is possible to get conclusions about the internal electric contrast. For this purpose, initially we performed tests to assess the accuracy of the BEM (Boundary Element Method) when applied to the direct problem of the EIT and to verify the behavior of error functional surface in the search space. Finally, numerical tests have been performed to verify the new technique.

Agonistic behavior and environmental enrichment of cats communally housed in a shelter

Objective-To evaluate the presence of a dominance rank in a group of cats and the relation between agonistic behavior and the use of resources, including environmental enrichment, in these cats. Design-Observational analytic study. Animals-27 neutered cats in a shelter in Sao Paulo, Brazil. Procedures-The cats were video recorded for 4 consecutive days to obtain baseline data. Subsequently, a puzzle feeder was added as an enrichment device every other day over 8 days, for a total of 4 days with enrichment. Cats were also video recorded on these days. All pretreatment and posttreatment agonistic behaviors and interactions with the puzzle feeder were recorded by reviewing the videotapes. Results-143 agonistic encounters were recorded, of which 44 were related to resources and 99 were not. There were insufficient agonistic interactions to determine a dominance rank. Presence or absence of the puzzle feeder did not affect the rate of aggression. There was no significant effect of weight, sex, or coat color on the rate of aggression, and aggressive behavior did not correlate with time spent with the puzzle feeder. Twenty-three of the 27 cats interacted with the puzzle feeder. Conclusions and Clinical Relevance-In a stable group of communally housed cats, environmental enrichment did not cause increased aggression as a result of competition for the source of enrichment. Because environmental enrichment increases the opportunity to perform exploratory behaviors, it may improve the welfare of groups of cats maintained long-term in shelters, sanctuaries, or multicat households. (J Am Vet Med Assoc 2011239:796-802)

Redescription of Riethia truncatocaudata (Edwards, 1931) (Diptera: Chironomidae), with description of female, pupa and larva and generic diagnosis for Riethia

The discovery of the immature life history stages of Riethia truncatocaudata (Edwards, 1931) from South America allows diagnosis of Riethia Kieffer, 1917 in all stages, incorporating reared species from the complete austral range. Pseudochironomus truncatocaudata Edwards, 1931 is a senior synonym (syn. n.) of Pseudochironomus melanoides Edwards, 1931. We redescribe the male to complement the short original descriptions of R. truncatocaudata and R. melanoides. The species is congeneric with Australian Riethia stictoptera Kieffer, the type species of the genus Riethia. Extensive material available from the western Pacific (Australia, New Zealand and New Caledonia) confirms that the diagnosis extends to a gondwanan clade, likely sister group to the largely northern genus Pseudochironomus Kieffer.

Study of acetylcholinesterase activity in rectal suction biopsy for diagnosis of intestinal dysganglionoses: 17-year experience of a single center

Although the utility of the acetylcholinesterase (AChE) histochemistry on rectal suction biopsy in diagnosing Hirschsprung`s disease (HD) has been documented, few reports address a great number of biopsies and patients. Our aim is to present a 17-year experience on the method of rectal suction biopsy and AChE histochemical staining for diagnosis of intestinal dysganglionoses. Between August 1989 and July 2006, 297 children suspected of having HD were submitted to rectal suction biopsies that were evaluated by the same two surgeons. There were 18 complications (6.0%), namely one self-limited rectal bleeding and 17 (5.7%) inadequate procedures that were repeated. A total of 157 patients (52.8%) showed no increased AChE activity and the remaining patients (140-47.2.0%) presented patterns of increased AChE activity confirming the diagnosis of HD or neuronal intestinal dysplasia. Among the 140 cases suspected as having HD, in 131 children the diagnosis of HD was confirmed and they were operated on. The histological studies showed that 111 children presented the classic form of HD or a long spastic segment. Sixteen children presented total colonic aganglionosis and four children proved to have intestinal neuronal dysplasia, according to histological and radiological criteria. Nine (6.6%) newborns were identified as false-positives and no false-negative results were verified. The rectal suction biopsy combined with AChE staining is advantageous for the differentiation between normal bowel and intestinal dysganglionoses. The rectal suction method is simple and can easily be performed by experienced surgeons. The histological evaluation is very objective and can be performed by a non-pathologist.

CENTRAL DIABETES INSIPIDUS INDUCED BY TUBERCULOSIS IN A RHEUMATOID ARTHRITIS PATIENT

Tuberculosis, a polymorphic disease, is a diagnostic challenge, particularly when arises concomitantly to an autoimmune disease such as rheumatoid arthritis (RA). Herein, the authors describe a 33-year-old woman with nodular RA who was being treated with methotrexate, sulfasalazine and corticosteroids and presented with subcutaneous nodules simultaneously with aseptic meningitis. Mycobacterium tuberculosis was identified in cultures from a biopsy of an axillary nodule. The patient also developed polyuria and polydipsia with normal glycemia; antidiuretic hormone (ADH) treatment before and after a 3% saline infusion test was performed and diabetes insipidus was diagnosed. An encephalic MRI showed sellar and suprasellar masses, suggesting central diabetes insipidus (CDI). The patient received standard tuberculosis (TB) treatment for 6 months and also DDAVP (desmopressin acetate) during this period. Control of CDI was observed. A pre-surgical magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) showed no pituitary mass. It is known that intrasellar tuberculoma occurs in only 1% of TB patients. TB should be considered in the differential diagnosis of CDI, especially in immunosupressed patients and in countries where this infection is a serious public health problem.

Improving Alzheimer`s Disease Diagnosis with Machine Learning Techniques

There is not a specific test to diagnose Alzheimer`s disease (AD). Its diagnosis should be based upon clinical history, neuropsychological and laboratory tests, neuroimaging and electroencephalography (EEG). Therefore, new approaches are necessary to enable earlier and more accurate diagnosis and to follow treatment results. In this study we used a Machine Learning (ML) technique, named Support Vector Machine (SVM), to search patterns in EEG epochs to differentiate AD patients from controls. As a result, we developed a quantitative EEG (qEEG) processing method for automatic differentiation of patients with AD from normal individuals, as a complement to the diagnosis of probable dementia. We studied EEGs from 19 normal subjects (14 females/5 males, mean age 71.6 years) and 16 probable mild to moderate symptoms AD patients (14 females/2 males, mean age 73.4 years. The results obtained from analysis of EEG epochs were accuracy 79.9% and sensitivity 83.2%. The analysis considering the diagnosis of each individual patient reached 87.0% accuracy and 91.7% sensitivity.

Bladder irrigation with amphotericin B and fungal urinary tract infection-systematic review with meta-analysis

Background: Candiduria is a hospital-associated infection and a daily problem in the intensive care unit. The treatment of asymptomatic candiduria is not well established and the use of amphotericin B bladder irrigation (ABBI) is controversial. The aim of this systematic review was to determine the best place for this therapy in practice. Methods: The databases searched in this study included MEDLINE, EMBASE, Web of Science, and LILACS (January 1960-June 2007). We included manuscripts with data on the treatment of candiduria using ABBI. The studies were classified as comparative, dose-finding, or non-comparative. Results: From 213 studies, nine articles (377 patients) met our inclusion criteria. ABBI showed a higher clearance of the candiduria 24 hours after the end of therapy than fluconazole (odds ratio (OR) 0.57, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.32-1.00). Fungal culture 5 days after the end of both therapies showed a similar response (OR 1.51, 95% CI 0.81-2.80). The evaluation of ABBI using an intermittent or continuous system of delivery showed an early candiduria clearance (24 hours after therapy) of 80% and 82%, respectively (OR 0.87, 95% CI 0.52-1.36). Candiduria clearance at >5 days after the therapy showed a superior response using continuous bladder irrigation with amphotericin B (OR 0.52, 95% CI 0.29-0.94). The use of continuous ABBI for more than 5 days showed a better result (88% vs. 78%) than ABBI for less than 5 days, but without significance (OR 0.55, 95% CI 0.34-1.04). Conclusion: Although the strength of the results in the underlying literature is not sufficient to allow the drawing of definitive conclusions, ABBI appears to be as effective as fluconazole, but it does not offer systemic antifungal therapy and should only be used for asymptomatic candiduria. (C) 2008 International Society for Infectious Diseases. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Population-based mammography screening and breast cancer incidence in New South Wales, Australia

To analyse breast cancer incidence trends in New South Wales (NSW), Australia, in relation to population-based mammography screening targeting women aged 50 to 69 years. Trends in age-specific incidence of invasive breast cancers in NSW women aged >= 40 years were examined in relation to mammography screening rates and screening cancer detection rates. Incidence of invasive breast cancer in NSW women increased in all age-groups over 1972 to 2002. The incidence trend for women aged 50 to 69 years showed that the steepest rise was associated with increased participation in population-based mammography screening, which was implemented from 1988 and achieved state-wide coverage in 1995. The elevated incidence of invasive cancer significantly exceeded pre-screening levels, and persisted after rates of initial screens declined. This elevated incidence was sustained by the contribution of cancers diagnosed through subsequent screening, and resulted from increased cancer detection rates in subsequent screens. The recent increase in invasive breast cancer incidence in NSW is associated with mammography screening, and occurred mostly in the target age-group women. Persistence of higher incidence after 1994 was not explicable by inflation of cancer incidence due to detection of prevalent screen cases, but was associated with a trend of increased cancer detection rates in subsequent screening rounds, probably consequent to quality improvements in mammography screening diagnosis.

Non-cancer mortality among people diagnosed with cancer (Australia)

Objective To investigate whether people diagnosed with cancer have an increased risk of death from non-cancer causes compared to the general population. Methods The non-cancer mortality of people diagnosed with cancer in Queensland (Australia) between 1982 and 2002 who had not died before 1 January 1993 was compared to the mortality of the total Queensland population, matching by age group and sex, and reporting by standardised mortality ratios. Results Compared to the non-cancer mortality in the general population, cancer patients (all cancers combined) were nearly 50% more likely to die of non-cancer causes (SMR = 149.9, 95% CI = [147-153]). This varied by cancer site. Overall melanoma patients had significantly lower non-cancer mortality, female breast cancer patients had similar non-cancer mortality to the general population, while increased non-cancer mortality risks were observed for people diagnosed with cervical cancer, colorectal cancer, prostate cancer, non-Hodgkin lymphoma and lung cancer. Conclusions Although cancer-specific death rates underestimate the mortality directly associated with a diagnosis of cancer, quantifying the degree of underestimation is difficult due to various competing explanations. There remains an important role for future research in understanding the causes of morbidity among cancer survivors, particularly those looking at both co-morbid illnesses and reductions in quality of life.

Alcohol use disorders in patients with obsessive-compulsive disorder: The importance of appropriate dual-diagnosis

Objective: To evaluate the prevalence and clinical associated factors of alcohol use disorders (AUD) comorbidity in a large clinical sample of patients with obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD). Methods: A cross-sectional study including 630 DSM-IV OCD patients from seven Brazilian university services, comparing patients with and without AUD comorbidity. The instruments of assessment used were a demographic and clinical questionnaire including evaluation of suicidal thoughts and acts and psychiatric treatment, the Structured Clinical Interview for DSM-IV Axis I disorders (SCID-I), the Yale-Brown Obsessive-Compulsive Scale, the Dimensional Yale-Brown Obsessive-Compulsive Scale, the Brown Assessment of Beliefs Scale, the Beck Depression and Anxiety Inventories and the Clinical Global Impression Scale. Current or past alcohol and other psychoactive substances use, abuse and dependence were assessed using the SCID-I (section E) and corroborated by medical and familial history questionnaires. Results: Forty-seven patients (7.5%) presented AUD comorbidity. Compared to OCD patients without this comorbidity they were more likely to be men, to have received previous psychiatric treatment, to present: lifetime suicidal thoughts and attempts and to have higher scores in the hoarding dimension. They also presented higher comorbidity with generalized anxiety and somatization disorders, and compulsive sexual behavior. Substance use was related to the appearance of the first O.C. symptoms and symptom amelioration. Conclusions: Although uncommon among OCD treatment seeking samples, AUD comorbidity has specific clinical features, such as increased risk for suicidality, which deserve special attention from mental health professionals. Future studies focused on the development of specific interventions for these patients are warranted. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.