Assessment of trophic change and its probable impact on tropical estuarine environment (the Kodungallur-Azhikode estuary, India)

The cumulative effects of global change, including climate change, increased population density and domestic waste disposal, effluent discharges from industrial processes, agriculture and aquaculture will likely continue and increases the process of eutrophication in estuarine environments. Eutrophication is one of the leading causes of degraded water quality, water column hypoxia/anoxia, harmful algal bloom (HAB) and loss of habitat and species diversity in the estuarine environment. The present study attempts to characterize the trophic condition of coastal estuary using a simple tool; trophic index (TRIX) based on a linear combination of the log of four state variables with supplementary index Efficiency Coefficient (Eff. Coeff.) as a discriminating tool. Numerically, the index TRIX is scaled from 0 to10, covering a wide range of trophic conditions from oligotrophic to eutrophic. Study area Kodungallur-Azhikode Estuary (KAE) was comparatively shallow in nature with average depth of 3.6±0.2 m. Dissolve oxygen regime in the water column was ranged from 4.7±1.3 mgL−1 in Station I to 5.9±1.4 mgL−1 in Station IV. The average nitrate-nitrogen (NO3-N) of KAE water was 470 mg m−3; values ranged from Av. 364.4 mg m−3 at Station II to Av. 626.6 mg m−3at Station VII. The mean ammonium-nitrogen (NH4 +-N) varied from 54.1 mg m−3 at Station VII to 101 mg m−3 at Station III. The average Chl-a for the seven stations of KAE was 6.42±3.91 mg m−3. Comparisons over different spatial and temporal scales in the KAE and study observed that, estuary experiencing high productivity by the influence of high degree of eutrophication; an annual average of 6.91 TRIX was noticed in the KAE and seasonal highest was observed during pre monsoon period (7.15) and lowest during post monsoon period (6.51). In the spatial scale station V showed high value 7.37 and comparatively low values in the station VI (6.93) and station VII (6.96) and which indicates eutrophication was predominant in land cover area with comparatively high water residence time. Eff. Coeff. values in the KAE ranges from −2.74 during monsoon period to the lowest of −1.98 in pre monsoon period. Present study revealed that trophic state of the estuary under severe stress and the restriction of autochthonous and allochthonous nutrient loading should be keystone in mitigate from eutrophication process

Noise exposure impact in a manufacturing environment: A hearing conservation program needs assessment

This paper examines a study conducted to evaluate the impact of occupational noise exposure and the role of a hearing conservation program in the occupational setting.

Fungal communities in archives: assessment strategies and impact on paper conservation and human health

The main results presented in this PhD Dissertation have been published in interna-tional journals included in the Science Citation Index (SCI)

Providing more informative projections of climate change impact on plant distribution in a mountain environment

Summary Due to their conic shape and the reduction of area with increasing elevation, mountain ecosystems were early identified as potentially very sensitive to global warming. Moreover, mountain systems may experience unprecedented rates of warming during the next century, two or three times higher than that records of the 20th century. In this context, species distribution models (SDM) have become important tools for rapid assessment of the impact of accelerated land use and climate change on the distribution plant species. In my study, I developed and tested new predictor variables for species distribution models (SDM), specific to current and future geographic projections of plant species in a mountain system, using the Western Swiss Alps as model region. Since meso- and micro-topography are relevant to explain geographic patterns of plant species in mountain environments, I assessed the effect of scale on predictor variables and geographic projections of SDM. I also developed a methodological framework of space-for-time evaluation to test the robustness of SDM when projected in a future changing climate. Finally, I used a cellular automaton to run dynamic simulations of plant migration under climate change in a mountain landscape, including realistic distance of seed dispersal. Results of future projections for the 21st century were also discussed in perspective of vegetation changes monitored during the 20th century. Overall, I showed in this study that, based on the most severe A1 climate change scenario and realistic dispersal simulations of plant dispersal, species extinctions in the Western Swiss Alps could affect nearly one third (28.5%) of the 284 species modeled by 2100. With the less severe 61 scenario, only 4.6% of species are predicted to become extinct. However, even with B1, 54% (153 species) may still loose more than 80% of their initial surface. Results of monitoring of past vegetation changes suggested that plant species can react quickly to the warmer conditions as far as competition is low However, in subalpine grasslands, competition of already present species is probably important and limit establishment of newly arrived species. Results from future simulations also showed that heavy extinctions of alpine plants may start already in 2040, but the latest in 2080. My study also highlighted the importance of fine scale and regional. assessments of climate change impact on mountain vegetation, using more direct predictor variables. Indeed, predictions at the continental scale may fail to predict local refugees or local extinctions, as well as loss of connectivity between local populations. On the other hand, migrations of low-elevation species to higher altitude may be difficult to predict at the local scale. Résumé La forme conique des montagnes ainsi que la diminution de surface dans les hautes altitudes sont reconnues pour exposer plus sensiblement les écosystèmes de montagne au réchauffement global. En outre, les systèmes de montagne seront sans doute soumis durant le 21ème siècle à un réchauffement deux à trois fois plus rapide que celui mesuré durant le 20ème siècle. Dans ce contexte, les modèles prédictifs de distribution géographique de la végétation se sont imposés comme des outils puissants pour de rapides évaluations de l'impact des changements climatiques et de la transformation du paysage par l'homme sur la végétation. Dans mon étude, j'ai développé de nouvelles variables prédictives pour les modèles de distribution, spécifiques à la projection géographique présente et future des plantes dans un système de montagne, en utilisant les Préalpes vaudoises comme zone d'échantillonnage. La méso- et la microtopographie étant particulièrement adaptées pour expliquer les patrons de distribution géographique des plantes dans un environnement montagneux, j'ai testé les effets d'échelle sur les variables prédictives et sur les projections des modèles de distribution. J'ai aussi développé un cadre méthodologique pour tester la robustesse potentielle des modèles lors de projections pour le futur. Finalement, j'ai utilisé un automate cellulaire pour simuler de manière dynamique la migration future des plantes dans le paysage et dans quatre scénarios de changement climatique pour le 21ème siècle. J'ai intégré dans ces simulations des mécanismes et des distances plus réalistes de dispersion de graines. J'ai pu montrer, avec les simulations les plus réalistes, que près du tiers des 284 espèces considérées (28.5%) pourraient être menacées d'extinction en 2100 dans le cas du plus sévère scénario de changement climatique A1. Pour le moins sévère des scénarios B1, seulement 4.6% des espèces sont menacées d'extinctions, mais 54% (153 espèces) risquent de perdre plus 80% de leur habitat initial. Les résultats de monitoring des changements de végétation dans le passé montrent que les plantes peuvent réagir rapidement au réchauffement climatique si la compétition est faible. Dans les prairies subalpines, les espèces déjà présentes limitent certainement l'arrivée de nouvelles espèces par effet de compétition. Les résultats de simulation pour le futur prédisent le début d'extinctions massives dans les Préalpes à partir de 2040, au plus tard en 2080. Mon travail démontre aussi l'importance d'études régionales à échelle fine pour évaluer l'impact des changements climatiques sur la végétation, en intégrant des variables plus directes. En effet, les études à échelle continentale ne tiennent pas compte des micro-refuges, des extinctions locales ni des pertes de connectivité entre populations locales. Malgré cela, la migration des plantes de basses altitudes reste difficile à prédire à l'échelle locale sans modélisation plus globale.

East 1 St Street Interchange and I-35 Widening, From MP 94.3 to Oralabor Road, Polk County, Iowa, Project # IM-035-4(140)92--13-77, Environmental Assessment and Section 4(f) De Minimis Impact Finding, 2015

From Proposed Action: "The proposed action consists of reconstructing the East 1st Street/I-35 interchange with a Diverging Diamond interchange, widening I-35 from four (4) lanes to six (6) lanes, and widening East 1st Street from four (4) lanes to five (5) lanes from Delaware Avenue to Frisk Drive. The project also proposes to reconstruct the intersections of East 1st Street/Creekview Drive and East 1st Street/Frisk Drive."

West 1 St Street/ IA 57 from Highland Drive to Center Street/Franklin Street, Blackhawk County, Iowa, Project # STP-57-2(28)--2C-07, Environmental Assessment and Section 4(f) De Minimis Impact Finding, 2015

From Proposed Action: "Iowa Northland Regional Council of Governments (INRCOG) and the City of Cedar Falls, in coordination with the Iowa Department of Transportation (Iowa DOT) and the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA), are proposing to upgrade and modernize an approximate 4,900-foot segment of Iowa Highway 57 (IA 57), locally known as West 1st Street, in Cedar Falls, Black Hawk County, Iowa."

Environmental assessment and the built environment : a highway engineer's perspective

This paper is an engineer's appreciation of environmental assessment with particular reference to highway development. While scheme-related Environmental Assessment for individual development may identify particular potential impacts, and may avoid or minimise some of the problems, in many cases it may be too late to take such actions. Ideally, Environmental Assessment should commence at the Strategic Level to cover policies, plan and programmes, and the scheme-related Environmental Assessments for individual projects should supplement those in the framework of Strategic Level. The utimate target is to assess the policy for their contribution to effecting sustainable development. Whole Life Environmental Impacts should be considered. These are the full impact consideration from planning, design and choice of materials, construction, operation and finally decommission. Most of the Environmental Assessments have not included the Whole Life Environmental Impacts. There is only limited monitoring in the operation stage after the construction of the scheme is complete, therefore, subsequent Environmental Assessments cannot benefit from the feedback of the scheme. No development should cost the Earth, hence Environmental Assessments have to be carried out thoroughly to serve as one of the instruments to meet the need of sustainable development.

A generic model of Exergy Assessment of the Environmental Impact for the Building Lifecycle

A generic model of Exergy Assessment is proposed for the Environmental Impact of the Building Lifecycle, with a special focus on the natural environment. Three environmental impacts: energy consumption, resource consumption and pollutant discharge have been analyzed with reference to energy-embodied exergy, resource chemical exergy and abatement exergy, respectively. The generic model of Exergy Assessment of the Environmental Impact of the Building Lifecycle thus formulated contains two sub-models, one from the aspect of building energy utilization and the other from building materials use. Combined with theories by ecologists such as Odum, the paper evaluates a building's environmental sustainability through its exergy footprint and environmental impacts. A case study from Chongqing, China illustrates the application of this method. From the case study, it was found that energy consumption constitutes 70–80% of the total environmental impact during a 50-year building lifecycle, in which the operation phase accounts for 80% of the total environmental impact, the building material production phase 15% and 5% for the other phases.

Private investment in the countryside: an assessment of the role of new houses and estates in sustaining the rural economy and environment

The British countryside has been shaped and sustained over the years by the establishment of landed estates. Some of our best known, and now most protected, landmarks derive from this tradition by which money, that was often sourced from outside the rural economy, was invested in land. Whilst there was some reversal in this trend during the last century, there is again a widespread desire among people of means to invest in new country property. Paragraph 3.21 of Planning Policy Guidance Note 7: The Countryside - Environmental Quality and Economic and Social Development was introduced in 1997 as a means of perpetuating the historic tradition of innovation in the countryside through the construction of fine individual houses in landscaped grounds. That it was considered necessary to use a special provision of this kind reflects the prevailing presumption of planning authorities against allowing private residential development in open countryside. The Government is currently reviewing rural planning policy and is focusing on higher density housing, affordable homes and the use of brownfield sites. There is an underlying conception that individual private house developments contribute nothing and are seen as the least attractive option for most development sites. The purpose of paragraph 3.21 lies outside the government’s priorities and its particular provisions may therefore be excluded in forthcoming ‘policy statements’. This paper seeks to examine the role of private investors wishing to build new houses in the countryside, and the impact that that might have on local economies. It explores the interpretation placed on PPG7 through an investigation of appeal sites, and concludes by making recommendations for the review process, including the retention of some form of exceptions policy for new build houses.

Soil erosion fragility assessment using an impact model and geographic information system

A study was taken in a 1566 ha watershed situated in the Capivara River basin, municipality of Botucatu, São Paulo State, Brazil. This environment is fragile and can be subjected to different forms of negative impacts, among them soil erosion by water. The main objective of the research was to develop a methodology for the assessment of soil erosion fragility at the various different watershed positions, using the geographic information system ILWIS version 3.3 for Windows. An impact model was created to generate the soil's erosion fragility plan, based on four indicators of fragility to water erosion: land use and cover, slope, percentage of soil fine sand and accumulated water flow. Thematic plans were generated in a geographic information system (GIS) environment. First, all the variables, except land use and cover, were described by continuous numerical plans in a raster structure. The land use and cover plan was also represented by numerical values associated with the weights attributed to each class, starting from a pairwise comparison matrix and using the analytical hierarchy process. A final field check was done to record evidence of erosive processes in the areas indicated as presenting the highest levels of fragility, i.e., sites with steep slopes, high percentage of soil fine sand, tendency to accumulate surface water flow, and sites of pastureland. The methodology used in the environmental problems diagnosis of the study area can be employed at places with similar relief, soil and climatic conditions.

An assessment of the economic impact of climate change on the Agriculture, Health and Tourism sectors in Jamaica

This report analyses the agriculture, health and tourism sectors in Jamaica to assess the potential economic impacts of climate change on the sectors. The fundamental aim of this report is to assist with the development of strategies to deal with the potential impact of climate change on Jamaica. It also has the potential to provide essential input for identifying and preparing policies and strategies to help move the Region closer to solving problems associated with climate change and attaining individual and regional sustainable development goals. Some of the key anticipated manifestations of climate change for the Caribbean include elevated air and sea-surface temperatures, sea-level rise, possible changes in extreme events and a reduction in freshwater resources. The economic impact of climate change on the three sectors was estimated for the A2 and B2 IPCC scenarios until 2050. An evaluation of various adaptation strategies was also undertaken for each sector using standard evaluation techniques. The outcomes from investigating the agriculture sector indicate that for the sugar-cane subsector the harvests under both the A2 and B2 scenarios decrease at first and then increase as the mid-century mark is approached. With respect to the yam subsector the results indicate that the yield of yam will increase from 17.4 to 23.1 tonnes per hectare (33%) under the A2 scenario, and 18.4 to 23.9 (30%) tonnes per hectare under the B2 scenario over the period 2011 to 2050. Similar to the forecasts for yam, the results for escallion suggest that yields will continue to increase to mid-century. Adaptation in the sugar cane sub-sector could involve replanting and irrigation that appear to generate net benefits at the three selected discount rates for the A2 scenario, but only at a discount rate of 1% for the B2 scenario. For yam and escallion, investment in irrigation will earn significant net benefits for both the A2 and B2 scenarios at the three selected rates of discount. It is recommended that if adaptation strategies are part of a package of strategies for improving efficiency and hence enhancing competitiveness, then the yields of each crop can be raised sufficiently to warrant investment in adaptation to climate change. The analysis of the health sector demonstrates the potential for climate change to add a substantial burden to the future health systems in Jamaica, something that that will only compound the country’s vulnerability to other anticipated impacts of climate change. The results clearly show that the incidence of dengue fever will increase if climate change continues unabated, with more cases projected for the A2 scenario than the B2. The models predicted a decrease in the incidence of gastroenteritis and leptospirosis with climate change, indicating that Jamaica will benefit from climate change with a reduction in the number of cases of gastroenteritis and leptospirosis. Due to the long time horizon anticipated for climate change, Jamaica should start implementing adaptation strategies focused on the health sector by promoting an enabling environment, strengthening communities, strengthening the monitoring, surveillance and response systems and integrating adaptation into development plans and actions. Small-island developing states like Jamaica must be proactive in implementing adaptation strategies, which will reduce the risk of climate change. On the global stage the country must continue to agitate for the implementation of the mitigation strategies for developed countries as outlined in the Kyoto protocol. The results regarding the tourism sector suggest that the sector is likely to incur losses due to climate change, the most significant of which is under the A2 scenario. Climatic features, such as temperature and precipitation, will affect the demand for tourism in Jamaica. By 2050 the industry is expected to lose US$ 132.2 million and 106.1 million under the A2 and B2 scenarios, respectively. In addition to changes in the climatic suitability for tourism, climate change is also likely to have important supply-side effects from extreme events and acidification of the ocean. The expected loss from extreme events is projected to be approximately US$ 5.48 billion (A2) and US$ 4.71 billion (B2). Even more devastating is the effect of ocean acidification on the tourism sector. The analysis shows that US$ 7.95 billion (A2) and US$ 7.04 billion is expected to be lost by mid-century. The benefit-cost analysis indicates that most of the adaptation strategies are expected to produce negative net benefits, and it is highly likely that the cost burden would have to be carried by the state. The options that generated positive ratios were: redesigning and retrofitting all relevant tourism facilities, restoring corals and educating the public and developing rescue and evacuation plans. Given the relative importance of tourism to the macroeconomy one possible option is to seek assistance from multilateral funding agencies. It is recommended that the government first undertake a detailed analysis of the vulnerability of each sector and, in particular tourism, to climate change. Further, more realistic socio-economic scenarios should be developed so as to inform future benefit-cost analysis.

An assessment of the economic impact of climate change on the health sector In Guyana

Climate change is considered to be the most pervasive and truly global of all issues affecting humanity. It poses a serious threat to the environment, as well as to economies and societies. Whilst it is clear that the impacts of climate change are varied, scientists have agreed that its effects will not be evenly distributed and that developing countries and small island developing States (SIDS) will be the first and hardest hit. Small island developing States, many of whom have fewer resources to adapt socially, technologically and financially to climate change, are considered to be the most vulnerable to the potential impacts of climate change. An economic analysis of climate change can provide essential input for identifying and preparing policies and strategies to help move the Caribbean closer to solving the problems associated with climate change, and to attaining individual and regional sustainable development goals. Climate change is expected to affect the health of populations. In fact, the World Health Organization (WHO), in Protecting Health from Climate Change (2008), states that the continuation of current patterns of fossil fuel use, development and population growth will lead to ongoing climate change, with serious effects on the environment and, consequently, on human lives and health. Assessing the economics of potential health impacts of climate variability and change requires an understanding of both the vulnerability of a population and its capacity to respond to new conditions. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) defines vulnerability as the degree to which individuals and systems are susceptible to, or unable to cope with, the adverse effects of climate change, including climate variability and extremes (WHO and others, 2003). The United Nations Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), in collaboration with the Caribbean Community Centre for Climate Change (CCCCC), is pursuing a regional project to ―Review the Economics of Climate Change in the Caribbean‖ (RECCC). The purpose of the project is to assess the likely economic impacts of climate change on key sectors of Caribbean economies, through applying robust simulation modelling analyses under various socio-economic scenarios and carbon emission trajectories for the next 40 years. The findings are expected to stimulate local and national governments, regional institutions, the private sector and civil society to craft and implement policies, cost-effective options and efficient choices to mitigate and adapt to climate change.

An assessment of the economic impact of climate change on the health sector In Jamaica

Climate change is a naturally occurring phenomenon in which the earth‘s climate goes through cycles of warming and cooling; these changes usually take place incrementally over millennia. Over the past century, there has been an anomalous increase in global temperature, giving rise to accelerated climate change. It is widely accepted that greenhouse gas emissions from human activities such as industries have contributed significantly to the increase in global temperatures. The existence and survival of all living organisms is predicated on the ability of the environment in which they live not only to provide conditions for their basic needs but also conditions suitable for growth and reproduction. Unabated climate change threatens the existence of biophysical and ecological systems on a planetary scale. The present study aims to examine the economic impact of climate change on health in Jamaica over the period 2011-2050. To this end, three disease conditions with known climate sensitivity and importance to Jamaican public health were modelled. These were: dengue fever, leptospirosis and gastroenteritis in children under age 5. Historical prevalence data on these diseases were obtained from the Ministry of Health Jamaica, the Caribbean Epidemiology Centre, the Climate Studies Group Mona, University of the West Indies Mona campus, and the Meteorological Service of Jamaica. Data obtained spanned a twelve-year period of 1995-2007. Monthly data were obtained for dengue and gastroenteritis, while for leptospirosis, the annual number of cases for 1995-2005 was utilized. The two SRES emission scenarios chosen were A2 and B2 using the European Centre Hamburg Model (ECHAM) global climate model to predict climate variables for these scenarios. A business as usual (BAU) scenario was developed using historical disease data for the period 2000-2009 (dengue fever and gastroenteritis) and 1995-2005 (leptospirosis) as the reference decades for the respective diseases. The BAU scenario examined the occurrence of the diseases in the absence of climate change. It assumed that the disease trend would remain unchanged over the projected period and the number of cases of disease for each decade would be the same as the reference decade. The model used in the present study utilized predictive empirical statistical modelling to extrapolate the climate/disease relationship in time, to estimate the number of climate change-related cases under future climate change scenarios. The study used a Poisson regression model that considered seasonality and lag effects to determine the best-fit model in relation to the diseases under consideration. Zhang and others (2008), in their review of climate change and the transmission of vector-borne diseases, found that: ―Besides climatic variables, few of them have included other factors that can affect the transmission of vector-borne disease….‖ (Zhang 2008) Water, sanitation and health expenditure are key determinants of health. In the draft of the second communication to IPCC, Jamaica noted the vulnerability of public health to climate change, including sanitation and access to water (MSJ/UNDP, 2009). Sanitation, which in its broadest context includes the removal of waste (excreta, solid, or other hazardous waste), is a predictor of vector-borne diseases (e.g. dengue fever), diarrhoeal diseases (such as gastroenteritis) and zoonoses (such as leptospirosis). In conceptualizing the model, an attempt was made to include non-climate predictors of these climate-sensitive diseases. The importance of sanitation and water access to the control of dengue, gastroenteritis and leptospirosis were included in the Poisson regression model. The Poisson regression model obtained was then used to predict the number of disease cases into the future (2011-2050) for each emission scenario. After projecting the number of cases, the cost associated with each scenario was calculated using four cost components. 1. Treatment cost morbidity estimate. The treatment cost for the number of cases was calculated using reference values found in the literature for each condition. The figures were derived from studies of the cost of treatment and represent ambulatory and non-fatal hospitalized care for dengue fever and gastroenteritis. Due to the paucity of published literature on the health care cost associated with leptospirosis, only the cost of diagnosis and antibiotic therapy were included in the calculation. 2. Mortality estimates. Mortality estimates are recorded as case fatality rates. Where local data were available, these were utilized. Where these were unavailable, appropriate reference values from the literature were used. 3. Productivity loss. Productivity loss was calculated using a human capital approach, by multiplying the expected number of productive days lost by the caregiver and/or the infected person, by GDP per capita per day (US$ 14) at 2008 GDP using 2008 US$ exchange rates. 4. No-option cost. The no-option cost refers to adaptation strategies for the control of dengue fever which are ongoing and already a part of the core functions of the Vector Control Division of the Ministry of Health, Jamaica. An estimated US$ 2.1 million is utilized each year in conducting activities to prevent the post-hurricane spread of vector borne diseases and diarrhoea. The cost includes public education, fogging, laboratory support, larvicidal activities and surveillance. This no-option cost was converted to per capita estimates, using population estimates for Jamaica up to 2050 obtained from the Statistical Institute of Jamaica (STATIN, 2006) and the assumption of one expected major hurricane per decade. During the decade 2000-2009, Jamaica had an average inflation of 10.4% (CIA Fact book, last updated May 2011). This average decadal inflation rate was applied to the no-option cost, which was inflated by 10% for each successive decade to adjust for changes in inflation over time.