Influence of the Tibetan Plateau uplift on the Asian monsoon-arid environment evolution

As one of the most important geological events in Cenozoic era, the uplift of the Tibetan Plateau (TP) has had profound influences on the Asian and global climate and environment evolution. During the past four decades, many scholars from China and abroad have studied climatic and environmental effects of the TP uplift by using a variety of geological records and paleoclimate numerical simulations. The existing research results enrich our understanding of the mechanisms of Asian monsoon changes and interior aridification, but so far there are still a lot of issues that need to be thought deeply and investigated further. This paper attempts to review the research on the influence of the TP uplift on the Asian monsoon-arid environment, summarize three types of numerical simulations including bulk-plateau uplift, phased uplift and sub-regional uplift, and especially to analyze regional differences in responses of climate and environment to different forms of tectonic uplifts. From previous modeling results, the land-sea distribution and the Himalayan uplift may have a large effect in the establishment and development of the South Asian monsoon. However, the formation and evolution of the monsoon in northern East Asia, the intensified dryness north of the TP and enhanced Asian dust cycle may be more closely related to the uplift of the main body, especially the northern part of the TP. In this review, we also discuss relative roles of the TP uplift and other impact factors, origins of the South Asian monsoon and East Asian monsoon, feedback effects and nonlinear responses of climatic and environmental changes to the plateau uplift. Finally, we make comparisons between numerical simulations and geological records, discuss their uncertainties, and highlight some problems worthy of further studying.

PPARGC1A sequence variation and cardiovascular risk-factor levels: a study of the main genetic effects and gene x environment interactions in children from the European Youth Heart Study.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: The PPARGC1A gene coactivates multiple nuclear transcription factors involved in cellular energy metabolism and vascular stasis. In the present study, we genotyped 35 tagging polymorphisms to capture all common PPARGC1A nucleotide sequence variations and tested for association with metabolic and cardiovascular traits in 2,101 Danish and Estonian boys and girls from the European Youth Heart Study, a multicentre school-based cross-sectional cohort study. METHODS: Fasting plasma glucose concentrations, anthropometric variables and blood pressure were measured. Habitual physical activity and aerobic fitness were objectively assessed using uniaxial accelerometry and a maximal aerobic exercise stress test on a bicycle ergometer, respectively. RESULTS: In adjusted models, nominally significant associations were observed for BMI (rs10018239, p = 0.039), waist circumference (rs7656250, p = 0.012; rs8192678 [Gly482Ser], p = 0.015; rs3755863, p = 0.02; rs10018239, beta = -0.01 cm per minor allele copy, p = 0.043), systolic blood pressure (rs2970869, p = 0.018) and fasting glucose concentrations (rs11724368, p = 0.045). Stronger associations were observed for aerobic fitness (rs7656250, p = 0.005; rs13117172, p = 0.008) and fasting glucose concentrations (rs7657071, p = 0.002). None remained significant after correcting for the number of statistical comparisons. We proceeded by testing for gene x physical activity interactions for the polymorphisms that showed nominal evidence of association in the main effect models. None of these tests was statistically significant. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: Variants at PPARGC1A may influence several metabolic traits in this European paediatric cohort. However, variation at PPARGC1A is unlikely to have a major impact on cardiovascular or metabolic health in these children.

The impact of climate change on the treatability of dissolved organic matter (DOM) in upland water supplies: A UK perspective

Climate change in the UK is expected to cause increases in temperatures, altered precipitation patterns and more frequent and extreme weather events. In this review we discuss climate effects on dissolved organic matter (DOM), how altered DOM and water physico-chemical properties will affect treatment processes and assess the utility of techniques used to remove DOM and monitor water quality. A critical analysis of the literature has been undertaken with a focus on catchment drivers of DOM character, removal of DOM via coagulation and the formation of disinfectant by-products (DBPs). We suggest that: (1) upland catchments recovering from acidification will continue to produce more DOM with a greater hydrophobic fraction as solubility controls decrease; (2) greater seasonality in DOM export is likely in future due to altered precipitation patterns; (3) changes in species diversity and water properties could encourage algal blooms; and (4) that land management and vegetative changes may have significant effects on DOM export and treatability but require further research. Increases in DBPs may occur where catchments have high influence from peatlands or where algal blooms become an issue. To increase resilience to variable DOM quantity and character we suggest that one or more of the following steps are undertaken at the treatment works: a) ‘enhanced coagulation’ optimised for DOM removal; b) switching from aluminium to ferric coagulants and/or incorporating coagulant aids; c) use of magnetic ion-exchange (MIEX) pre-coagulation; and d) activated carbon filtration post-coagulation. Fluorescence and UV absorbance techniques are highlighted as potential methods for low-cost, rapid on-line process optimisation to improve DOM removal and minimise DBPs.

Global-scale climate impact functions: the relationship between climate forcing and impact

Although there is a strong policy interest in the impacts of climate change corresponding to different degrees of climate change, there is so far little consistent empirical evidence of the relationship between climate forcing and impact. This is because the vast majority of impact assessments use emissions-based scenarios with associated socio-economic assumptions, and it is not feasible to infer impacts at other temperature changes by interpolation. This paper presents an assessment of the global-scale impacts of climate change in 2050 corresponding to defined increases in global mean temperature, using spatially-explicit impacts models representing impacts in the water resources, river flooding, coastal, agriculture, ecosystem and built environment sectors. Pattern-scaling is used to construct climate scenarios associated with specific changes in global mean surface temperature, and a relationship between temperature and sea level used to construct sea level rise scenarios. Climate scenarios are constructed from 21 climate models to give an indication of the uncertainty between forcing and response. The analysis shows that there is considerable uncertainty in the impacts associated with a given increase in global mean temperature, due largely to uncertainty in the projected regional change in precipitation. This has important policy implications. There is evidence for some sectors of a non-linear relationship between global mean temperature change and impact, due to the changing relative importance of temperature and precipitation change. In the socio-economic sectors considered here, the relationships are reasonably consistent between socio-economic scenarios if impacts are expressed in proportional terms, but there can be large differences in absolute terms. There are a number of caveats with the approach, including the use of pattern-scaling to construct scenarios, the use of one impacts model per sector, and the sensitivity of the shape of the relationships between forcing and response to the definition of the impact indicator.

Landscape change in central Latvia since the Iron Age: multi-proxy analysis of the vegetation impact of conflict, colonization and economic expansion during the last 2000 years

This study represents the first detailed multi-proxy palaeoenvironmental investigation associated with a Late Iron Age lake-dwelling site in the eastern Baltic. The main objective was to reconstruct the environmental and vegetation dynamics associated with the establishment of the lake-dwelling and land-use during the last 2,000 years. A lacustrine sediment core located adjacent to a Late Iron Age lake-dwelling, medieval castle and Post-medieval manor was sampled in Lake Āraiši. The core was dated using spheroidal fly-ash particles and radiocarbon dating, and analysed in terms of pollen, non-pollen palynomorphs, diatoms, loss-on-ignition, magnetic susceptibility and element geochemistry. Associations between pollen and other proxies were statistically tested. During ad 1–700, the vicinity of Lake Āraiši was covered by forests and human activities were only small-scale with the first appearance of cereal pollen (Triticum and Secale cereale) after ad 400. The most significant changes in vegetation and environment occurred with the establishment of the lake-dwelling around ad 780 when the immediate surroundings of the lake were cleared for agriculture, and within the lake there were increased nutrient levels. The highest accumulation rates of coprophilous fungi coincide with the occupation of the lake-dwelling from ad 780–1050, indicating that parts of the dwelling functioned as byres for livestock. The conquest of tribal lands during the crusades resulted in changes to the ownership, administration and organisation of the land, but our results indicate that the form and type of agriculture and land-use continued much as it had during the preceding Late Iron Age.

The implications of climate change for the water environment in England

This paper reviews the implications of climate change for the water environment and its management in England. There is a large literature, but most studies have looked at flow volumes or nutrients and none have considered explicitly the implications of climate change for the delivery of water management objectives. Studies have been undertaken in a small number of locations. Studies have used observations from the past to infer future changes, and have used numerical simulation models with climate change scenarios. The literature indicates that climate change poses risks to the delivery of water management objectives, but that these risks depend on local catchment and water body conditions. Climate change affects the status of water bodies, and it affects the effectiveness of measures to manage the water environment and meet policy objectives. The future impact of climate change on the water environment and its management is uncertain. Impacts are dependent on changes in the duration of dry spells and frequency of ‘flushing’ events, which are highly uncertain and not included in current climate scenarios. There is a good qualitative understanding of ways in which systems may change, but interactions between components of the water environment are poorly understood. Predictive models are only available for some components, and model parametric and structural uncertainty has not been evaluated. The impacts of climate change depend on other pressures on the water environment in a catchment, and also on the management interventions that are undertaken to achieve water management objectives. The paper has also developed a series of consistent conceptual models describing the implications of climate change for pressures on the water environment, based around the source-pathway-receptor concept. They provide a framework for a systematic assessment across catchments and pressures of the implications of climate change for the water environment and its management.

An evidence-based review on the likely economic and environmental impact of genetically modified cereals and oilseeds for UK agriculture

An evidence-based review of the potential impact that the introduction of genetically-modified (GM) cereal and oilseed crops could have for the UK was carried out. The inter-disciplinary research project addressed the key research questions using scenarios for the uptake, or not, of GM technologies. This was followed by an extensive literature review, stakeholder consultation and financial modelling. The world area of canola, oilseed rape (OSR) low in both erucic acid in the oil and glucosinolates in the meal, was 34M ha in 2012 of which 27% was GM; Canada is the lead producer but it is also grown in the USA, Australia and Chile. Farm level effects of adopting GM OSR include: lower production costs; higher yields and profits; and ease of farm management. Growing GM OSR instead of conventional OSR reduces both herbicide usage and environmental impact. Some 170M ha of maize was grown in the world in 2011 of which 28% was GM; the main producers are the USA, China and Brazil. Spain is the main EU producer of GM maize although it is also grown widely in Portugal. Insect resistant (IR) and herbicide tolerant (HT) are the GM maize traits currently available commercially. Farm level benefits of adopting GM maize are lower costs of production through reduced use of pesticides and higher profits. GM maize adoption results in less pesticide usage than on conventional counterpart crops leading to less residues in food and animal feed and allowing increasing diversity of bees and other pollinators. In the EU, well-tried coexistence measures for growing GM crops in the proximity of conventional crops have avoided gene flow issues. Scientific evidence so far seems to indicate that there has been no environmental damage from growing GM crops. They may possibly even be beneficial to the environment as they result in less pesticides and herbicides being applied and improved carbon sequestration from less tillage. A review of work on GM cereals relevant for the UK found input trait work on: herbicide and pathogen tolerance; abiotic stress such as from drought or salinity; and yield traits under different field conditions. For output traits, work has mainly focussed on modifying the nutritional components of cereals and in connection with various enzymes, diagnostics and vaccines. Scrutiny of applications submitted for field trial testing of GM cereals found around 9000 applications in the USA, 15 in Australia and 10 in the EU since 1996. There have also been many patent applications and granted patents for GM cereals in the USA for both input and output traits;an indication of the scale of such work is the fact that in a 6 week period in the spring of 2013, 12 patents were granted relating to GM cereals. A dynamic financial model has enabled us to better understand and examine the likely performance of Bt maize and HT OSR for the south of the UK, if cultivation is permitted in the future. It was found that for continuous growing of Bt maize and HT OSR, unless there was pest pressure for the former and weed pressure for the latter, the seed premia and likely coexistence costs for a buffer zone between other crops would reduce the financial returns for the GM crops compared with their conventional counterparts. When modelling HT OSR in a four crop rotation, it was found that gross margins increased significantly at the higher levels of such pest or weed pressure, particularly for farm businesses with larger fields where coexistence costs would be scaled down. The impact of the supply of UK-produced GM crops on the wider supply chain was examined through an extensive literature review and widespread stakeholder consultation with the feed supply chain. The animal feed sector would benefit from cheaper supplies of raw materials if GM crops were grown and, in the future, they might also benefit from crops with enhanced nutritional profile (such as having higher protein levels) becoming available. This would also be beneficial to livestock producers enabling lower production costs and higher margins. Whilst coexistence measures would result in increased costs, it is unlikely that these would cause substantial changes in the feed chain structure. Retailers were not concerned about a future increase in the amount of animal feed coming from GM crops. To conclude, we (the project team) feel that the adoption of currently available and appropriate GM crops in the UK in the years ahead would benefit farmers, consumers and the feed chain without causing environmental damage. Furthermore, unless British farmers are allowed to grow GM crops in the future, the competitiveness of farming in the UK is likely to decline relative to that globally.

Validation of Canopy Height Profile methodology for small-footprint full-waveform airborne LiDAR data in a discontinuous canopy environment

A Canopy Height Profile (CHP) procedure presented in Harding et al. (2001) for large footprint LiDAR data was tested in a closed canopy environment as a way of extracting vertical foliage profiles from LiDAR raw-waveform. In this study, an adaptation of this method to small-footprint data has been shown, tested and validated in an Australian sparse canopy forest at plot- and site-level. Further, the methodology itself has been enhanced by implementing a dataset-adjusted reflectance ratio calculation according to Armston et al. (2013) in the processing chain, and tested against a fixed ratio of 0.5 estimated for the laser wavelength of 1550nm. As a by-product of the methodology, effective leaf area index (LAIe) estimates were derived and compared to hemispherical photography-derived values. To assess the influence of LiDAR aggregation area size on the estimates in a sparse canopy environment, LiDAR CHPs and LAIes were generated by aggregating waveforms to plot- and site-level footprints (plot/site-aggregated) as well as in 5m grids (grid-processed). LiDAR profiles were then compared to leaf biomass field profiles generated based on field tree measurements. The correlation between field and LiDAR profiles was very high, with a mean R2 of 0.75 at plot-level and 0.86 at site-level for 55 plots and the corresponding 11 sites. Gridding had almost no impact on the correlation between LiDAR and field profiles (only marginally improvement), nor did the dataset-adjusted reflectance ratio. However, gridding and the dataset-adjusted reflectance ratio were found to improve the correlation between raw-waveform LiDAR and hemispherical photography LAIe estimates, yielding the highest correlations of 0.61 at plot-level and of 0.83 at site-level. This proved the validity of the approach and superiority of dataset-adjusted reflectance ratio of Armston et al. (2013) over a fixed ratio of 0.5 for LAIe estimation, as well as showed the adequacy of small-footprint LiDAR data for LAIe estimation in discontinuous canopy forests.

JULES-crop: a parametrisation of crops in the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator

Studies of climate change impacts on the terrestrial biosphere have been completed without recognition of the integrated nature of the biosphere. Improved assessment of the impacts of climate change on food and water security requires the development and use of models not only representing each component but also their interactions. To meet this requirement the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES) land surface model has been modified to include a generic parametrisation of annual crops. The new model, JULES-crop, is described and evaluation at global and site levels for the four globally important crops; wheat, soybean, maize and rice. JULES-crop demonstrates skill in simulating the inter-annual variations of yield for maize and soybean at the global and country levels, and for wheat for major spring wheat producing countries. The impact of the new parametrisation, compared to the standard configuration, on the simulation of surface heat fluxes is largely an alteration of the partitioning between latent and sensible heat fluxes during the later part of the growing season. Further evaluation at the site level shows the model captures the seasonality of leaf area index, gross primary production and canopy height better than in the standard JULES. However, this does not lead to an improvement in the simulation of sensible and latent heat fluxes. The performance of JULES-crop from both an Earth system and crop yield model perspective is encouraging. However, more effort is needed to develop the parametrisation of the model for specific applications. Key future model developments identified include the introduction of processes such as irrigation and nitrogen limitation which will enable better representation of the spatial variability in yield.

The climate and environment of Byzantine Anatolia: integrating science, history, and archaeology

The integration of high-resolution archaeological, textual, and environmental data with longer-term, low-resolution data affords greater precision in identifying some of the causal relationships underlying societal change. Regional and microregional case studies about the Byzantine world—in particular, Anatolia, which for several centuries was the heart of that world—reveal many of the difficulties that researchers face when attempting to assess the influence of environmental factors on human society. The Anatolian case challenges a number of assumptions about the impact of climatic factors on socio-political organization and medium-term historical evolution, highlighting the importance of further collaboration between historians, archaeologists, and climate scientists.

Investigating the influence of extracellular matrix and glycolytic metabolism on muscle stem cell migration on their native fibre environment

The composition of the extracellular matrix (ECM) of skeletal muscle fibres is a unique environment that supports the regenerative capacity of satellite cells; the resident stem cell population. The impact of environment has great bearing on key properties permitting satellite cells to carry out tissue repair. In this study, we have investigated the influence of the ECM and glycolytic metabolism on satellite cell emergence and migration- two early processes required for muscle repair. Our results show that both influence the rate at which satellite cells emerge from the sub-basal lamina position and their rate of migration. These studies highlight the necessity of performing analysis of satellite behaviour on their native substrate and will inform on the production of artificial scaffolds intended for medical uses.

Social and ecological drivers of success in agri-environment schemes: the roles of farmers and environmental context

1. Agri-environment schemes remain a controversial approach to reversing biodiversity losses, partly because the drivers of variation in outcomes are poorly understood. In particular, there is a lack of studies that consider both social and ecological factors. 2. We analysed variation across 48 farms in the quality and biodiversity outcomes of agri-environmental habitats designed to provide pollen and nectar for bumblebees and butterflies or winter seed for birds. We used interviews and ecological surveys to gather data on farmer experience and understanding of agri-environment schemes, and local and landscape environmental factors. 3. Multimodel inference indicated social factors had a strong impact on outcomes and that farmer experiential learning was a key process. The quality of the created habitat was affected positively by the farmer’s previous experience in environmental management. The farmer’s confidence in their ability to carry out the required management was negatively related to the provision of floral resources. Farmers with more wildlife-friendly motivations tended to produce more floral resources, but fewer seed resources. 4. Bird, bumblebee and butterfly biodiversity responses were strongly affected by the quantity of seed or floral resources. Shelter enhanced biodiversity directly, increased floral resources and decreased seed yield. Seasonal weather patterns had large effects on both measures. Surprisingly, larger species pools and amounts of semi-natural habitat in the surrounding landscape had negative effects on biodiversity, which may indicate use by fauna of alternative foraging resources. 5. Synthesis and application. This is the first study to show a direct role of farmer social variables on the success of agri-environment schemes in supporting farmland biodiversity. It suggests that farmers are not simply implementing agri-environment options, but are learning and improving outcomes by doing so. Better engagement with farmers and working with farmers who have a history of environmental management may therefore enhance success. The importance of a number of environmental factors may explain why agri-environment outcomes are variable, and suggests some – such as the weather – cannot be controlled. Others, such as shelter, could be incorporated into agri-environment prescriptions. The role of landscape factors remains complex and currently eludes simple conclusions about large-scale targeting of schemes.

Urban Growth Boundaries and their impact on land prices

Undeveloped land transactions at the urban fringe of the Melbourne metropolitan area in Australia are recorded in a dataset that enables exploration of the impact of its urban growth boundary (UGB) on residential land prices. Estimation can take account of a wide range of factors, while controlling for policy anticipation effects and other potential influences on land prices. Modelling estimates indicate that land prices rose substantially inside the UGB after its enactment in 2003, but did not rise much outside of it. These results suggest that the urban growth boundary has had a significant upward effect on the trajectory of the urban region’s house prices. Keywords: urban growth boundary, land prices, land market dynamics

New insights into the impact of Lactobacillus population on host-bacteria metabolic interplay

We aimed at evaluating the association between intestinal Lactobacillus sp. composition and their metabolic activity with the host metabolism in adult and elderly individuals. Faecal and plasma metabolites were measured and correlated to the Lactobacillus species distribution in healthy Estonian cohorts of adult (n=16; <48 y) and elderly (n=33; >65 y). Total cholesterol, LDL, C-reactive protein and glycated hemoglobin were statistically higher in elderly, while platelets, white blood cells and urinary creatinine were higher in adults. Aging was associated with the presence of L. paracasei and L. plantarum and the absence of L. salivarius and L. helveticus. High levels of intestinal Lactobacillus sp. were positively associated with increased concentrations of faecal short chain fatty acids, lactate and essential amino acids. In adults, high red blood cell distribution width was positively associated with presence of L. helveticus and absence of L. ruminis. L. helveticus was correlated to lactate and butyrate in faecal waters. This indicates a strong relationship between the composition of the gut Lactobacillus sp. and host metabolism. Our results confirm that aging is associated with modulations of blood biomarkers and intestinal Lactobacillus species composition. We identified specific Lactobacillus contributions to gut metabolic environment and related those to blood biomarkers. Such associations may prove useful to decipher the biological mechanisms underlying host-gut microbial metabolic interactions in an ageing population.

The influence of chronic conditions and the environment on pubertal development. An example from medieval England

Adolescence is a unique period in human development encompassing sexual maturation (puberty) and the physical and psychological transition into adulthood. It is a crucial time for healthy development and any adverse environmental conditions, poor nutrition, or chronic infection can alter the timing of these physical changes; delaying menarche in girls or the age of peak height velocity in boys. This study explores the impact of chronic illness on the tempo of puberty in 607 adolescent skeletons from medieval England (AD 900-1550). A total of 135 (22.2%) adolescents showed some delay in their pubertal development, and this lag increased with age. Of those with a chronic condition, 40.0% (n=24/60) showed delay compared to only 20.3% (n=111/547) of the non-pathology group. This difference was statistically significant. A binary logistic regression model demonstrated a significant association between increasing delay in pubertal stage attainment with age in the pathology group. This is the first time that chronic conditions have been directly associated with a delay in maturation in the osteological record, using a new method to assess stages of puberty in skeletal remains.