Short-term electricity price forecasting using wavelet and SVM techniques

In deregulated electricity market, modeling and forecasting the spot price present a number of challenges. By applying wavelet and support vector machine techniques, a new time series model for short term electricity price forecasting has been developed in this paper. The model employs both historical price and other important information, such as load capacity and weather (temperature), to forecast the price of one or more time steps ahead. The developed model has been evaluated with the actual data from Australian National Electricity Market. The simulation results demonstrated that the forecast model is capable of forecasting the electricity price with a reasonable forecasting accuracy.

Optimal design of a regenerative dynamic dynamometer using genetic algorithms

This paper presents an approach for optimal design of a fully regenerative dynamic dynamometer using genetic algorithms. The proposed dynamometer system includes an energy storage mechanism to adaptively absorb the energy variations following the dynamometer transients. This allows the minimum power electronics requirement at the mains power supply grid to compensate for the losses. The overall dynamometer system is a dynamic complex system and design of the system is a multi-objective problem, which requires advanced optimisation techniques such as genetic algorithms. The case study of designing and simulation of the dynamometer system indicates that the genetic algorithm based approach is able to locate a best available solution in view of system performance and computational costs.

Design and application of nanoscale actuators using block-copolymers

Block copolymers are versatile designer macromolecules where a “bottom-up” approach can be used to create tailored materials with unique properties. These simple building blocks allow us to create actuators that convert energy from a variety of sources (such as chemical, electrical and heat) into mechanical energy. In this review we will discuss the advantages and potential pitfalls of using block copolymers to create actuators, putting emphasis on the ways in which these materials can be synthesised and processed. Particular attention will be given to the theoretical background of microphase separation and how the phase diagram can be used during the design process of actuators. Different types of actuation will be discussed throughout.

Vibrational methods applied to NDT testing and fluid density measurement

A system for the NDI' testing of the integrity of conposite materials and of adhesive bonds has been developed to meet industrial requirements. The vibration techniques used were found to be applicable to the development of fluid measuring transducers. The vibrational spectra of thin rectangular bars were used for the NDT work. A machined cut in a bar had a significant effect on the spectrum but a genuine crack gave an unambiguous response at high amplitudes. This was the generation of fretting crack noise at frequencies far above that of the drive. A specially designed vibrational decrement meter which, in effect, measures mechanical energy loss enabled a numerical classification of material adhesion to be obtained. This was used to study bars which had been flame or plasma sprayed with a variety of materials. It has become a useful tool in optimising coating methods. A direct industrial application was to classify piston rings of high performance I.C. engines. Each consists of a cast iron ring with a channel into which molybdenum, a good bearing surface, is sprayed. The NDT classification agreed quite well with the destructive test normally used. The techniques and equipment used for the NOT work were applied to the development of the tuning fork transducers investigated by Hassan into commercial density and viscosity devices. Using narrowly spaced, large area tines a thin lamina of fluid is trapped between them. It stores a large fraction of the vibrational energy which, acting as an inertia load reduces the frequency. Magnetostrictive and piezoelectric effects together or in combination enable the fork to be operated through a flange. This allows it to be used in pipeline or 'dipstick' applications. Using a different tine geometry the viscosity loading can be predoninant. This as well as the signal decrement of the density transducer makes a practical viscometer.

A Generic model for the design and analysis of production systems

This dissertation studies the process of operations systems design within the context of the manufacturing organization. Using the DRAMA (Design Routine for Adopting Modular Assembly) model as developed by a team from the IDOM Research Unit at Aston University as a starting point, the research employed empirically based fieldwork and a survey to investigate the process of production systems design and implementation within four UK manufacturing industries: electronics assembly, electrical engineering, mechanical engineering and carpet manufacturing. The intention was to validate the basic DRAMA model as a framework for research enquiry within the electronics industry, where the initial IDOM work was conducted, and then to test its generic applicability, further developing the model where appropriate, within the other industries selected. The thesis contains a review of production systems design theory and practice prior to presenting thirteen industrial case studies of production systems design from the four industry sectors. The results and analysis of the postal survey into production systems design are then presented. The strategic decisions of manufacturing and their relationship to production systems design, and the detailed process of production systems design and operation are then discussed. These analyses are used to develop the generic model of production systems design entitled DRAMA II (Decision Rules for Analysing Manufacturing Activities). The model contains three main constituent parts: the basic DRAMA model, the extended DRAMA II model showing the imperatives and relationships within the design process, and a benchmark generic approach for the design and analysis of each component in the design process. DRAMA II is primarily intended for use by researchers as an analytical framework of enquiry, but is also seen as having application for manufacturing practitioners.

Mixed-frequency testing of induction machines using inverters

This work has concentrated on the testing of induction machines to determine their temperature rise at full-load without mechanically coupling to a load machine. The achievements of this work are outlined as follows. 1. Four distinct categories of mixed-frequency test using an inverter have been identified by the author. The simulation results of these tests as well as the conventional 2-supply test have been analysed in detail. 2. Experimental work on mixed-frequency tests has been done on a small (4 kW) squirrel cage induction machine using a voltage source PWM inverter. Two out of the four categories of test suggested have been tested and the temperature rise results were found to be similar to the results of a direct loading test. Further, one of the categories of test proposed has been performed on a 3.3 kW slip-ring induction machine for the conformation of the rotor values. 3. A low current supply mixed-frequency test-rig has been proposed. For this purpose, a resonant bank was connected to the DC link of the inverter in order to maintain the exchange of power between the test machine and the resonant bank instead of between the main supply and the test machine. The resonant bank was then replaced with a special electro-mechanical energy storage unit. The current of the main power supply was then reduced in amplitude. 4. A variable inertia test for full load temperature rise testing of induction machines has been introduced. This test is purely mechanical in nature and does not require any electrical connection of the test machine to any other machine. It has the advantage of drawing very little net power from the supply.

Fluid dynamics and platelet deposition in a model arterial stenosis

The objective of this study was to gain further understanding and elucidation of the fluid dynamic factors and flow-induced mechanisms of the thrombogenic process of platelet deposition onto, and possible subsequent embolization from, the walls of an arterial stenosis. This has been accomplished by measurement of the axial dependence of platelet deposition within a modeled arterial stenosis for a transitional flow and a completely laminar flow field. The stenotic region of the model was collagen-coated to simulate a damaged endothelial lining of an artery. Fluid dynamics within a stenosis was studied using qualitative flow visualization, and was further compared to the in vitro platelet deposition studies. Normalized platelet density (NPD) measurements indicate decreased levels of NPD in the high shear throat region of the stenosis for a Reynolds number of 300 and a drastic increase in NPD at the throat for a Reynolds number of 175. This study provides further understanding of the flow dynamic effects on thrombus development within a stenosis. ^

Crack tip stress study for elastic-perfectly plastic materials with some applications

The problems of plasticity and non-linear fracture mechanics have been generally recognized as the most difficult problems of solid mechanics. The present dissertation is devoted to some problems on the intersection of both plasticity and non-linear fracture mechanics. The crack tip is responsible for the crack growth and therefore is the focus of fracture science. The problem of crack has been studied by an army of outstanding scholars and engineers in this century, but has not, as yet, been solved for many important practical situations. The aim of this investigation is to provide an analytical solution to the problem of plasticity at the crack tip for elastic-perfectly plastic materials and to apply the solution to a classical problem of the mechanics of composite materials.^ In this work, the stresses inside the plastic region near the crack tip in a composite material made of two different elastic-perfectly plastic materials are studied. The problems of an interface crack, a crack impinging an interface at the right angle and at arbitrary angles are examined. The constituent materials are assumed to obey the Huber-Mises yielding condition criterion. The theory of slip lines for plane strain is utilized. For the particular homogeneous case these problems have two solutions: the continuous solution found earlier by Prandtl and modified by Hill and Sokolovsky, and the discontinuous solution found later by Cherepanov. The same type of solutions were discovered in the inhomogeneous problems of the present study. Some reasons to prefer the discontinuous solution are provided. The method is also applied to the analysis of a contact problem and a push-in/pull-out problem to determine the critical load for plasticity in these classical problems of the mechanics of composite materials.^ The results of this dissertation published in three journal articles (two of which are under revision) will also be presented in the Invited Lecture at the 7$\rm\sp{th}$ International Conference on Plasticity (Cancun, Mexico, January 1999). ^