954 resultados para Electric load forecasting
Resumo:
Tämän työn päätavoite on luoda toimintamalli alihankintaostoille siten, että alihankkijat voisivat käyttää materiaaliostoissaan päätoimittajan materiaalisopimuksia. Päätavoite voidaan jakaa osatavoitteisiin, joita ovat ennustemallin luominen materiaalitoimittajalle, käsittäen pituusleikkureiden raskaat rakenteet, tilaus-toimitusprosessi välille päätoimittaja-alihankkija materiaalitoimittaja ja kustannussäästöjen saavuttaminen toimitusketjussa. Työssä keskityttiin pituusleikkureiden raskaiden rakenteiden toimitusketjuun yhden alihankkijan ja materiaalitoimittajan kanssa. Raskaat rakenteet määriteltiin käsittämän teräslevyjä, jotka ovat yli 16 mm paksuudeltaan. Uutta toimintamallia lähdettiin kehittämään päätoimittajan tarpeiden pohjalta. Mukaan otettiin, myös alihankkijan ja materiaalitoimittajan tarpeita. Uusi toimintamalli sisältää ennustemallin ja uuden tilaus-toimitusprosessin. Uuden toimintamallin käyttöönotto kuitenkin keskeytyi matalasta kuormitustilanteesta johtuen. Saatuja tuloksia verrattiin osin teoriassa esitettyihin asioihin.
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The effective notch stress approach for the fatigue strength assessment of welded structures as included in the Fatigue Design Recommendation of the IIW requires the numerical analysis of the elastic notch stress in the weld toe and weld root which is fictitiously rounded with a radius of 1mm. The goal of this thesis work was to consider alternate meshing strategies when using the effective notch stress approach to assess the fatigue strength of load carrying partial penetration fillet-welded cruciform joints. In order to establish guidelines for modeling the joint and evaluating the results, various two-dimensional (2D) finite element analyses were carried out by systematically varying the thickness of the plates, the weld throat thickness, the degree of bending, and the shape and location of the modeled effective notch. To extend the scope of this work, studies were also carried out on the influence of
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Allostatic load (AL) is a marker of physiological dysregulation which reflects exposure to chronic stress. High AL has been related to poorer health outcomes including mortality. We examine here the association of socioeconomic and lifestyle factors with AL. Additionally, we investigate the extent to which AL is genetically determined. We included 803 participants (52% women, mean age 48±16years) from a population and family-based Swiss study. We computed an AL index aggregating 14 markers from cardiovascular, metabolic, lipidic, oxidative, hypothalamus-pituitary-adrenal and inflammatory homeostatic axes. Education and occupational position were used as indicators of socioeconomic status. Marital status, stress, alcohol intake, smoking, dietary patterns and physical activity were considered as lifestyle factors. Heritability of AL was estimated by maximum likelihood. Women with a low occupational position had higher AL (low vs. high OR=3.99, 95%CI [1.22;13.05]), while the opposite was observed for men (middle vs. high OR=0.48, 95%CI [0.23;0.99]). Education tended to be inversely associated with AL in both sexes(low vs. high OR=3.54, 95%CI [1.69;7.4]/OR=1.59, 95%CI [0.88;2.90] in women/men). Heavy drinking men as well as women abstaining from alcohol had higher AL than moderate drinkers. Physical activity was protective against AL while high salt intake was related to increased AL risk. The heritability of AL was estimated to be 29.5% ±7.9%. Our results suggest that generalized physiological dysregulation, as measured by AL, is determined by both environmental and genetic factors. The genetic contribution to AL remains modest when compared to the environmental component, which explains approximately 70% of the phenotypic variance.
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Nombreux sont les groupes de recherche qui se sont intéressés, ces dernières années, à la manière de monitorer l'entraînement des sportifs de haut niveau afin d'optimaliser le rendement de ce dernier tout en préservant la santé des athlètes. Un des problèmes cardinaux d'un entraînement sportif mal conduit est le syndrome du surentraînement. La définition du syndrome susmentionné proposée par Kreider et al. est celle qui est actuellement acceptée par le « European College of Sport Science » ainsi que par le « American College of Sports Medicine», à savoir : « An accumulation of training and/or non-training stress resulting in long-term decrement in performance capacity with or without related physiological and psychological signs and symptoms of maladaptation in which restoration of performance capacity may take several weeks or months. » « Une accumulation de stress lié, ou non, à l'entraînement, résultant en une diminution à long terme de la capacité de performance. Cette dernière est associée ou non avec des signes et des symptômes physiologiques et psychologiques d'inadaptation de l'athlète à l'entraînement. La restauration de ladite capacité de performance peut prendre plusieurs semaines ou mois. » Les recommandations actuelles, concernant le monitoring de l'entraînement et la détection précoce du syndrome du surentrainement, préconisent, entre autre, un suivi psychologique à l'aide de questionnaires (tel que le Profile of Mood State (POMS)), un suivi de la charge d'entraînement perçue par l'athlète (p.ex. avec la session rating of perceived exertion (RPE) method selon C. Foster), un suivi des performances des athlètes et des charges d'entraînement effectuées ainsi qu'un suivi des problèmes de santé (blessures et maladies). Le suivi de paramètres sanguins et hormonaux n'est pas recommandé d'une part pour des questions de coût et de faisabilité, d'autre part car la littérature scientifique n'a, jusqu'ici, pas été en mesure de dégager des évidences à ce sujet. A ce jour, peu d'études ont suivi ces paramètres de manière rigoureuse, sur une longue période et chez un nombre d'athlète important. Ceci est précisément le but de notre étude.
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Seaports play an important part in the wellbeing of a nation. Many nations are highly dependent on foreign trade and most trade is done using sea vessels. This study is part of a larger research project, where a simulation model is required in order to create further analyses on Finnish macro logistical networks. The objective of this study is to create a system dynamic simulation model, which gives an accurate forecast for the development of demand of Finnish seaports up to 2030. The emphasis on this study is to show how it is possible to create a detailed harbor demand System Dynamic model with the help of statistical methods. The used forecasting methods were ARIMA (autoregressive integrated moving average) and regression models. The created simulation model gives a forecast with confidence intervals and allows studying different scenarios. The building process was found to be a useful one and the built model can be expanded to be more detailed. Required capacity for other parts of the Finnish logistical system could easily be included in the model.
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Data transmission between an electric motor and a frequency converter is required in variablespeed electric drives because of sensors installed at the motor. Sensor information can be used for various useful applications to improve the system reliability and its properties. Traditionally, the communication medium is implemented by an additional cabling. However, the costs of the traditional method may be an obstacle to the wider application of data transmission between a motor and a frequency converter. In any case, a power cable is always installed between a motor and a frequency converter for power supply, and hence it may be applied as a communication medium for sensor level data. This thesis considers power line communication (PLC) in inverter-fed motor power cables. The motor cable is studied as a communication channel in the frequency band of 100 kHz−30 MHz. The communication channel and noise characteristics are described. All the individual components included in a variable-speed electric drive are presented in detail. A channel model is developed, and it is verified by measurements. A theoretical channel information capacity analysis is carried out to estimate the opportunities of a communication medium. Suitable communication and forward error correction (FEC) methods are suggested. A general method to implement a broadband and Ethernet-based communication medium between a motor and a frequency converter is proposed. A coupling interface is also developed that allows to install the communication device safely to a three-phase inverter-fed motor power cable. Practical tests are carried out, and the results are analyzed. Possible applications for the proposed method are presented. A speed feedback motor control application is verified in detail by simulations and laboratory tests because of restrictions for the delay in the feedback loop caused by PLC. Other possible applications are discussed at a more general level.
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In the world of transport management, the term ‘anticipation’ is gradually replacing ‘reaction’. Indeed, the ability to forecast traffic evolution in a network should ideally form the basis for many traffic management strategies and multiple ITS applications. Real-time prediction capabilities are therefore becoming a concrete need for the management of networks, both for urban and interurban environments, and today’s road operator has increasingly complex and exacting requirements. Recognising temporal patterns in traffic or the manner in which sequential traffic events evolve over time have been important considerations in short-term traffic forecasting. However, little work has been conducted in the area of identifying or associating traffic pattern occurrence with prevailing traffic conditions. This paper presents a framework for detection pattern identification based on finite mixture models using the EM algorithm for parameter estimation. The computation results have been conducted taking into account the traffic data available in an urban network.
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Työssä tutkitaan ilmalämpöpumppujen kokonaisvaltaista vaikutusta sähköverkkoon. Tarkastelu aloitetaan lämpöpumppujen toiminnasta ja rakenteesta, josta jatketaan laitteen käytettävyyteen ja muiden lämmitysmenetelmien vertailuun. Sähköisten ominaisuuksien tarkastelussa pohditaan ilmalämpöpumppujen vaikutusta suomalaiseen sähköverkkoon muun muassa yleissähkötekniikan, taloudellisuuden ja energiatehokkuuden sekä häiriöiden kannalta. Tämä tutkielma rajoittuu pientaloihin, ja niihin asennettuihin ilma-ilmalämpöpumppuihin. Työn loppupäätelmänä on, että ilmalämpöpumppujen käytöstä ei juuri aiheudu vaikutuksia suomalaiseen sähköverkkoon. Suurimmat ilmalämpöpumppujen käytöstä syntyvät seuraukset kohdistuvat sähköverkkoyhtiöihin, joihin ilmalämpöpumput aiheuttavat taloudellisia menetyksiä. Suuret ja tulevaisuudessa kasvavat ilmalämpöpumppumäärät aiheuttavat sähköntuotantoon lisätehontarvetta huippukuorman aikaan. Toisaalta välitehoalueella tehontarve sekä energiankulutus pienenevät. Sähköverkoissa ei ole toistaiseksi havaittu ilmalämpöpumpuista johtuvia häiriöitä.
Resumo:
Most motor bodily injury (BI) claims are settled by negotiation, with fewer than 5% of cases going to court. A well-defined negotiation strategy is thus very useful for insurance companies. In this paper we assume that the monetary compensation awarded in court is the upper amount to be offered by the insurer in the negotiation process. Using a real database, a log-linear model is implemented to estimate the maximal offer. Non-spherical disturbances are detected. Correlation occurs when various claims are settled in the same judicial verdict. Group wise heteroscedasticity is due to the influence of the forensic valuation on the final compensation amount. An alternative approximation based on generalized inference theory is applied to estimate confidence intervals on variance components, since classical interval estimates may be unreliable for datasets with unbalanced structures.
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In liberalized electricity markets, which have taken place in many countries over the world, the electricity distribution companies operate in the competitive conditions. Therefore, accurate information about the customers’ energy consumption plays an essential role for the budget keeping of the distribution company and for correct planning and operation of the distribution network. This master’s thesis is focused on the description of the possible benefits for the electric utilities and residential customers from the automatic meter reading system usage. Major benefits of the AMR, illustrated in the thesis, are distribution network management, power quality monitoring, load modelling, and detection of the illegal usage of the electricity. By the example of the power system state estimation, it was illustrated that even the partial installation of the AMR in the customer side leads to more accurate data about the voltage and power levels in the whole network. The thesis also contains the description of the present situation of the AMR integration in Russia.
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This paper proposes a calibration method which can be utilized for the analysis of SEM images. The field of application of the developed method is a calculation of surface potential distribution of biased silicon edgeless detector. The suggested processing of the data collected by SEM consists of several stages and takes into account different aspects affecting the SEM image. The calibration method doesn’t pretend to be precise but at the same time it gives the basics of potential distribution when the different biasing voltages applied to the detector.
Resumo:
This Master’s Thesis work reports about electric field distribution in recently developed silicon edgeless detector with a new current terminating structure. This structure enables the essential reduction of insensitive detector area as well as allows separation of the current flowing through the active area from the current flowing at the cut edge. The reliable operation of this detector is strongly needed due to the installation inside LHC. In accordance with formulated problems SEM was used as an investigation tool for collecting the data about electric field distribution.
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Self-sustained time-dependent current oscillations under dc voltage bias have been observed in recent experiments on n-doped semiconductor superlattices with sequential resonant tunneling. The current oscillations are caused by the motion and recycling of the domain wall separating low- and high-electric-field regions of the superlattice, as the analysis of a discrete drift model shows and experimental evidence supports. Numerical simulation shows that different nonlinear dynamical regimes of the domain wall appear when an external microwave signal is superimposed on the dc bias and its driving frequency and driving amplitude vary. On the frequency-amplitude parameter plane, there are regions of entrainment and quasiperiodicity forming Arnold tongues. Chaos is demonstrated to appear at the boundaries of the tongues and in the regions where they overlap. Coexistence of up to four electric-field domains randomly nucleated in space is detected under ac+dc driving.
Resumo:
Synchronous machines with an AC converter are used mainly in large drives, for example in ship propulsion drives as well as in rolling mill drives in steel industry. These motors are used because of their high efficiency, high overload capacity and good performance in the field weakening area. Present day drives for electrically excited synchronous motors are equipped with position sensors. Most drives for electrically excited synchronous motors will be equipped with position sensors also in future. This kind of drives with good dynamics are mainly used in metal industry. Drives without a position sensor can be used e.g. in ship propulsion and in large pump and blower drives. Nowadays, these drives are equipped with a position sensor, too. The tendency is to avoid a position sensor if possible, since a sensor reduces the reliability of the drive and increases costs (latter is not very significant for large drives). A new control technique for a synchronous motor drive is a combination of the Direct Flux Linkage Control (DFLC) based on a voltage model and a supervising method (e.g. current model). This combination is called Direct Torque Control method (DTC). In the case of the position sensorless drive, the DTC can be implemented by using other supervising methods that keep the stator flux linkage origin centered. In this thesis, a method for the observation of the drift of the real stator flux linkage in the DTC drive is introduced. It is also shown how this method can be used as a supervising method that keeps the stator flux linkage origin centered in the case of the DTC. In the position sensorless case, a synchronous motor can be started up with the DTC control, when a method for the determination of the initial rotor position presented in this thesis is used. The load characteristics of such a drive are not very good at low rotational speeds. Furthermore, continuous operation at a zero speed and at a low rotational speed is not possible, which is partly due to the problems related to the flux linkage estimate. For operation in a low speed area, a stator current control method based on the DFLC modulator (DMCQ is presented. With the DMCC, it is possible to start up and operate a synchronous motor at a zero speed and at low rotational speeds in general. The DMCC is necessary in situations where high torque (e.g. nominal torque) is required at the starting moment, or if the motor runs several seconds at a zero speed or at a low speed range (up to 2 Hz). The behaviour of the described methods is shown with test results. The test results are presented for the direct flux linkage and torque controlled test drive system with a 14.5 kVA, four pole salient pole synchronous motor with a damper winding and electric excitation. The static accuracy of the drive is verified by measuring the torque in a static load operation, and the dynamics of the drive is proven in load transient tests. The performance of the drive concept presented in this work is sufficient e.g. for ship propulsion and for large pump drives. Furthermore, the developed methods are almost independent of the machine parameters.
Resumo:
To predict the capacity of the structure or the point which is followed by instability, calculation of the critical crack size is important. Structures usually contain several cracks but not necessarily all of these cracks lead to failure or reach the critical size. So, defining the harmful cracks or the crack size which is the most leading one to failure provides criteria for structure’s capacity at elevated temperature. The scope of this thesis was to calculate fracture parameters like stress intensity factor, the J integral and plastic and ultimate capacity of the structure to estimate critical crack size for this specific structure. Several three dimensional (3D) simulations using finite element method by Ansys program and boundary element method by Frank 3D program were carried out to calculate fracture parameters and results with the aid of laboratory tests (loaddisplacement curve, the J resistance curve and yield or ultimate stress) leaded to extract critical size of the crack. Two types of the fracture which is usually affected by temperature, Elastic and Elasti-Plastic fractures were simulated by performing several linear elastic and nonlinear elastic analyses. Geometry details of the weldment; flank angle and toe radius were also studied independently to estimate the location of crack initiation and simulate stress field in early stages of crack extension in structure. In this work also overview of the structure’s capacity in room temperature (20 ºC) was studied. Comparison of the results in different temperature (20 ºC and -40 ºC) provides a threshold of the structure’s behavior within the defined range.