An insulin infusion advisory system for type 1 diabetes patients based on non-linear model predictive control methods

In this paper, an Insulin Infusion Advisory System (IIAS) for Type 1 diabetes patients, which use insulin pumps for the Continuous Subcutaneous Insulin Infusion (CSII) is presented. The purpose of the system is to estimate the appropriate insulin infusion rates. The system is based on a Non-Linear Model Predictive Controller (NMPC) which uses a hybrid model. The model comprises a Compartmental Model (CM), which simulates the absorption of the glucose to the blood due to meal intakes, and a Neural Network (NN), which simulates the glucose-insulin kinetics. The NN is a Recurrent NN (RNN) trained with the Real Time Recurrent Learning (RTRL) algorithm. The output of the model consists of short term glucose predictions and provides input to the NMPC, in order for the latter to estimate the optimum insulin infusion rates. For the development and the evaluation of the IIAS, data generated from a Mathematical Model (MM) of a Type 1 diabetes patient have been used. The proposed control strategy is evaluated at multiple meal disturbances, various noise levels and additional time delays. The results indicate that the implemented IIAS is capable of handling multiple meals, which correspond to realistic meal profiles, large noise levels and time delays.

Fuzzy Multi-Objective Linear Programming and Simulation Approach to the Development of Valid and Realistic Master Production Schedule

Master production schedule (MPS) plays an important role in an integrated production planning system. It converts the strategic planning defined in a production plan into the tactical operation execution. The MPS is also known as a tool for top management to control over manufacture resources and becomes input of the downstream planning levels such as material requirement planning (MRP) and capacity requirement planning (CRP). Hence, inappropriate decision on the MPS development may lead to infeasible execution, which ultimately causes poor delivery performance. One must ensure that the proposed MPS is valid and realistic for implementation before it is released to real manufacturing system. In practice, where production environment is stochastic in nature, the development of MPS is no longer simple task. The varying processing time, random event such as machine failure is just some of the underlying causes of uncertainty that may be hardly addressed at planning stage so that in the end the valid and realistic MPS is tough to be realized. The MPS creation problem becomes even more sophisticated as decision makers try to consider multi-objectives; minimizing inventory, maximizing customer satisfaction, and maximizing resource utilization. This study attempts to propose a methodology for MPS creation which is able to deal with those obstacles. This approach takes into account uncertainty and makes trade off among conflicting multi-objectives at the same time. It incorporates fuzzy multi-objective linear programming (FMOLP) and discrete event simulation (DES) for MPS development.

The Assessment of Multiple Processes Underlying the Attentional Blink: A Fixed - links Modeling Approach based on Behavioral and Electrophysiological Data

When observers are presented with two visual targets appearing in the same position in close temporal proximity, a marked reduction in detection performance of the second target has often been reported, the so-called attentional blink phenomenon. Several studies found a similar decrement of P300 amplitudes during the attentional blink period as observed with detection performances of the second target. However, whether the parallel courses of second target performances and corresponding P300 amplitudes resulted from the same underlying mechanisms remained unclear. The aim of our study was therefore to investigate whether the mechanisms underlying the AB can be assessed by fixed-links modeling and whether this kind of assessment would reveal the same or at least related processes in the behavioral and electrophysiological data. On both levels of observation three highly similar processes could be identified: an increasing, a decreasing and a u-shaped trend. Corresponding processes from the behavioral and electrophysiological data were substantially correlated, with the two u-shaped trends showing the strongest association with each other. Our results provide evidence for the assumption that the same mechanisms underlie attentional blink task performance at the electrophysiological and behavioral levels as assessed by fixed-links models.

Monitoring Programmes, Multiple Stress Analysis and Decision Support for River Basin Management

The identification of plausible causes for water body status deterioration will be much easier if it can build on available, reliable, extensive and comprehensive biogeochemical monitoring data (preferably aggregated in a database). A plausible identification of such causes is a prerequisite for well-informed decisions on which mitigation or remediation measures to take. In this chapter, first a rationale for an extended monitoring programme is provided; it is then compared to the one required by the Water Framework Directive (WFD). This proposal includes a list of relevant parameters that are needed for an integrated, a priori status assessment. Secondly, a few sophisticated statistical tools are described that subsequently allow for the estiation of the magnitude of impairment as well as the likely relative importance of different stressors in a multiple stressed environment. The advantages and restrictions of these rather complicated analytical methods are discussed. Finally, the use of Decision Support Systems (DSS) is advocated with regard to the specific WFD implementation requirements.

Extended kalman filter for estimation of parameters in nonlinear state-space models of biochemical networks.

It is system dynamics that determines the function of cells, tissues and organisms. To develop mathematical models and estimate their parameters are an essential issue for studying dynamic behaviors of biological systems which include metabolic networks, genetic regulatory networks and signal transduction pathways, under perturbation of external stimuli. In general, biological dynamic systems are partially observed. Therefore, a natural way to model dynamic biological systems is to employ nonlinear state-space equations. Although statistical methods for parameter estimation of linear models in biological dynamic systems have been developed intensively in the recent years, the estimation of both states and parameters of nonlinear dynamic systems remains a challenging task. In this report, we apply extended Kalman Filter (EKF) to the estimation of both states and parameters of nonlinear state-space models. To evaluate the performance of the EKF for parameter estimation, we apply the EKF to a simulation dataset and two real datasets: JAK-STAT signal transduction pathway and Ras/Raf/MEK/ERK signaling transduction pathways datasets. The preliminary results show that EKF can accurately estimate the parameters and predict states in nonlinear state-space equations for modeling dynamic biochemical networks.

Groundwater age distributions at a public drinking water supply well field derived from multiple age tracers (⁸⁵Kr, ³H/³He, and ³⁹Ar)

Groundwater age is a key aspect of production well vulnerability. Public drinking water supply wells typically have long screens and are expected to produce a mixture of groundwater ages. The groundwater age distributions of seven production wells of the Holten well field (Netherlands) were estimated from tritium-helium (3H/3He), krypton-85 (85Kr), and argon-39 (39Ar), using a new application of a discrete age distribution model and existing mathematical models, by minimizing the uncertainty-weighted squared differences of modeled and measured tracer concentrations. The observed tracer concentrations fitted well to a 4-bin discrete age distribution model or a dispersion model with a fraction of old groundwater. Our results show that more than 75 of the water pumped by four shallow production wells has a groundwater age of less than 20 years and these wells are very vulnerable to recent surface contamination. More than 50 of the water pumped by three deep production wells is older than 60 years. 3H/3He samples from short screened monitoring wells surrounding the well field constrained the age stratification in the aquifer. The discrepancy between the age stratification with depth and the groundwater age distribution of the production wells showed that the well field preferentially pumps from the shallow part of the aquifer. The discrete groundwater age distribution model appears to be a suitable approach in settings where the shape of the age distribution cannot be assumed to follow a simple mathematical model, such as a production well field where wells compete for capture area.

Magma-Driven Multiple Dike Propagation and Fracture Toughness of Crustal Rocks

Dike swarms consisting of tens to thousands of subparallel dikes are commonly observed at Earth's surface, raising the possibility of simultaneous propagation of two or more dikes at various stages of a swarm's development. The behavior of multiple propagating dikes differs from that of a single dike owing to the interacting stress fields associated with each dike. We analyze an array of parallel, periodically spaced dikes that grow simultaneously from an overpressured source into a semi-infinite, linear elastic host rock. To simplify the analysis, we assume steady state (constant velocity) magma flow and dike propagation. We use a perturbation method to analyze the coupled, nonlinear problem of multiple dike propagation and magma transport. The stress intensity factor at the dike tips and the opening displacements of the dike surfaces are calculated. The numerical results show that dike spacing has a profound effect on the behavior of dike propagation. The stress intensity factors at the tips of parallel dikes decrease with a decrease in dike spacing and are significantly smaller than that for a single dike with the same length. The reduced stress intensity factor indicates that, compared to a single dike, propagation of parallel dikes is more likely to be arrested under otherwise the same conditions. It also implies that fracture toughness of the host rock in a high confining pressure environment may not be as high as inferred from the propagation of a single dike. Our numerical results suggest fracture toughness values on the order of 100 MPa root m. The opening displacements for parallel dikes are smaller than that for a single dike, which results in higher magma pressure gradients in parallel dikes and lower flux of magma transport.

Discrete Improvement in Racial Disparity in Survival among Patients with Stage IV Colorectal Cancer: a 21-Year Population-Based Analysis

Purpose Recently, multiple clinical trials have demonstrated improved outcomes in patients with metastatic colorectal cancer. This study investigated if the improved survival is race dependent. Patients and Methods Overall and cancer-specific survival of 77,490 White and Black patients with metastatic colorectal cancer from the 1988–2008 Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results registry were compared using unadjusted and multivariable adjusted Cox proportional hazard regression as well as competing risk analyses. Results Median age was 69 years, 47.4 % were female and 86.0 % White. Median survival was 11 months overall, with an overall increase from 8 to 14 months between 1988 and 2008. Overall survival increased from 8 to 14 months for White, and from 6 to 13 months for Black patients. After multivariable adjustment, the following parameters were associated with better survival: White, female, younger, better educated and married patients, patients with higher income and living in urban areas, patients with rectosigmoid junction and rectal cancer, undergoing cancer-directed surgery, having well/moderately differentiated, and N0 tumors (p<0.05 for all covariates). Discrepancies in overall survival based on race did not change significantly over time; however, there was a significant decrease of cancer-specific survival discrepancies over time between White and Black patients with a hazard ratio of 0.995 (95 % confidence interval 0.991–1.000) per year (p=0.03). Conclusion A clinically relevant overall survival increase was found from 1988 to 2008 in this population-based analysis for both White and Black patients with metastatic colorectal cancer. Although both White and Black patients benefitted from this improvement, a slight discrepancy between the two groups remained.

Experimental, theoretical and numerical investigation of the nonlinear micromechanical properties of bone

Aging societies suffer from an increasing incidence of bone fractures. Bone strength depends on the amount of mineral measured by clinical densitometry, but also on the micromechanical properties of the bone hierarchical organization. A good understanding has been reached for elastic properties on several length scales, but up to now there is a lack of reliable postyield data on the lower length scales. In order to be able to describe the behavior of bone at the microscale, an anisotropic elastic-viscoplastic damage model was developed using an eccentric generalized Hill criterion and nonlinear isotropic hardening. The model was implemented as a user subroutine in Abaqus and verified using single element tests. A FE simulation of microindentation in lamellar bone was finally performed show-ing that the new constitutive model can capture the main characteristics of the indentation response of bone. As the generalized Hill criterion is limited to elliptical and cylindrical yield surfaces and the correct shape for bone is not known, a new yield surface was developed that takes any convex quadratic shape. The main advantage is that in the case of material identification the shape of the yield surface does not have to be anticipated but a minimization results in the optimal shape among all convex quadrics. The generality of the formulation was demonstrated by showing its degeneration to classical yield surfaces. Also, existing yield criteria for bone at multiple length scales were converted to the quadric formulation. Then, a computational study to determine the influence of yield surface shape and damage on the in-dentation response of bone using spherical and conical tips was performed. The constitutive model was adapted to the quadric criterion and yield surface shape and critical damage were varied. They were shown to have a major impact on the indentation curves. Their influence on indentation modulus, hardness, their ratio as well as the elastic to total work ratio were found to be very well described by multilinear regressions for both tip shapes. For conical tips, indentation depth was not a significant fac-tor, while for spherical tips damage was insignificant. All inverse methods based on microindentation suffer from a lack of uniqueness of the found material properties in the case of nonlinear material behavior. Therefore, monotonic and cyclic micropillar com-pression tests in a scanning electron microscope allowing a straightforward interpretation comple-mented by microindentation and macroscopic uniaxial compression tests were performed on dry ovine bone to identify modulus, yield stress, plastic deformation, damage accumulation and failure mecha-nisms. While the elastic properties were highly consistent, the postyield deformation and failure mech-anisms differed between the two length scales. A majority of the micropillars showed a ductile behavior with strain hardening until failure by localization in a slip plane, while the macroscopic samples failed in a quasi-brittle fashion with microcracks coalescing into macroscopic failure surfaces. In agreement with a proposed rheological model, these experiments illustrate a transition from a ductile mechanical behavior of bone at the microscale to a quasi-brittle response driven by the growth of preexisting cracks along interfaces or in the vicinity of pores at the macroscale. Subsequently, a study was undertaken to quantify the topological variability of indentations in bone and examine its relationship with mechanical properties. Indentations were performed in dry human and ovine bone in axial and transverse directions and their topography measured by AFM. Statistical shape modeling of the residual imprint allowed to define a mean shape and describe the variability with 21 principal components related to imprint depth, surface curvature and roughness. The indentation profile of bone was highly consistent and free of any pile up. A few of the topological parameters, in particular depth, showed significant correlations to variations in mechanical properties, but the cor-relations were not very strong or consistent. We could thus verify that bone is rather homogeneous in its micromechanical properties and that indentation results are not strongly influenced by small de-viations from the ideal case. As the uniaxial properties measured by micropillar compression are in conflict with the current literature on bone indentation, another dissipative mechanism has to be present. The elastic-viscoplastic damage model was therefore extended to viscoelasticity. The viscoelastic properties were identified from macroscopic experiments, while the quasistatic postelastic properties were extracted from micropillar data. It was found that viscoelasticity governed by macroscale properties has very little influence on the indentation curve and results in a clear underestimation of the creep deformation. Adding viscoplasticity leads to increased creep, but hardness is still highly overestimated. It was possible to obtain a reasonable fit with experimental indentation curves for both Berkovich and spherical indenta-tion when abandoning the assumption of shear strength being governed by an isotropy condition. These results remain to be verified by independent tests probing the micromechanical strength prop-erties in tension and shear. In conclusion, in this thesis several tools were developed to describe the complex behavior of bone on the microscale and experiments were performed to identify its material properties. Micropillar com-pression highlighted a size effect in bone due to the presence of preexisting cracks and pores or inter-faces like cement lines. It was possible to get a reasonable fit between experimental indentation curves using different tips and simulations using the constitutive model and uniaxial properties measured by micropillar compression. Additional experimental work is necessary to identify the exact nature of the size effect and the mechanical role of interfaces in bone. Deciphering the micromechanical behavior of lamellar bone and its evolution with age, disease and treatment and its failure mechanisms on several length scales will help preventing fractures in the elderly in the future.

Lesion location predicts transient and extended risk of aspiration after supratentorial ischemic stroke

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE To assess the association of lesion location and risk of aspiration and to establish predictors of transient versus extended risk of aspiration after supratentorial ischemic stroke. METHODS Atlas-based localization analysis was performed in consecutive patients with MRI-proven first-time acute supratentorial ischemic stroke. Standardized swallowing assessment was carried out within 8±18 hours and 7.8±1.2 days after admission. RESULTS In a prospective, longitudinal analysis, 34 of 94 patients (36%) were classified as having acute risk of aspiration, which was extended (≥7 days) or transient (<7 days) in 17 cases. There were no between-group differences in age, sex, cause of stroke, risk factors, prestroke disability, lesion side, or the degree of age-related white-matter changes. Correcting for stroke volume and National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale with a multiple logistic regression model, significant adjusted odds ratios in favor of acute risk of aspiration were demonstrated for the internal capsule (adjusted odds ratio, 6.2; P<0.002) and the insular cortex (adjusted odds ratio, 4.8; P<0.003). In a multivariate model of extended versus transient risk of aspiration, combined lesions of the frontal operculum and insular cortex was the only significant independent predictor of poor recovery (adjusted odds ratio, 33.8; P<0.008). CONCLUSIONS Lesions of the insular cortex and the internal capsule are significantly associated with acute risk of aspiration after stroke. Combined ischemic infarctions of the frontal operculum and the insular cortex are likely to cause extended risk of aspiration in stroke patients, whereas risk of aspiration tends to be transient in subcortical stroke.

Associations between mood, anxiety or substance use disorders and inflammatory markers after adjustment for multiple covariates in a population-based study.

Inflammation is one possible mechanism underlying the associations between mental disorders and cardiovascular diseases (CVD). However, studies on mental disorders and inflammation have yielded inconsistent results and the majority did not adjust for potential confounding factors. We examined the associations of several pro-inflammatory cytokines (IL-1β, IL-6 and TNF-α) and high sensitive C-reactive protein (hsCRP) with lifetime and current mood, anxiety and substance use disorders (SUD), while adjusting for multiple covariates. The sample included 3719 subjects, randomly selected from the general population, who underwent thorough somatic and psychiatric evaluations. Psychiatric diagnoses were made with a semi-structured interview. Major depressive disorder was subtyped into "atypical", "melancholic", "combined atypical-melancholic" and "unspecified". Associations between inflammatory markers and psychiatric diagnoses were assessed using multiple linear and logistic regression models. Lifetime bipolar disorders and atypical depression were associated with increased levels of hsCRP, but not after multivariate adjustment. After multivariate adjustment, SUD remained associated with increased hsCRP levels in men (β = 0.13 (95% CI: 0.03,0.23)) but not in women. After multivariate adjustment, lifetime combined and unspecified depression were associated with decreased levels of IL-6 (β = -0.27 (-0.51,-0.02); β = -0.19 (-0.34,-0.05), respectively) and TNF-α (β = -0.16 (-0.30,-0.01); β = -0.10 (-0.19,-0.02), respectively), whereas current combined and unspecified depression were associated with decreased levels of hsCRP (β = -0.20 (-0.39,-0.02); β = -0.12 (-0.24,-0.01), respectively). Our data suggest that the significant associations between increased hsCRP levels and mood disorders are mainly attributable to the effects of comorbid disorders, medication as well as behavioral and physical CVRFs.

A class of exact Navier-Stokes solutions for homogeneous flat-plate boundary layers and their linear stability

We introduce a new boundary layer formalism on the basis of which a class of exact solutions to the Navier–Stokes equations is derived. These solutions describe laminar boundary layer flows past a flat plate under the assumption of one homogeneous direction, such as the classical swept Hiemenz boundary layer (SHBL), the asymptotic suction boundary layer (ASBL) and the oblique impingement boundary layer. The linear stability of these new solutions is investigated, uncovering new results for the SHBL and the ASBL. Previously, each of these flows had been described with its own formalism and coordinate system, such that the solutions could not be transformed into each other. Using a new compound formalism, we are able to show that the ASBL is the physical limit of the SHBL with wall suction when the chordwise velocity component vanishes while the homogeneous sweep velocity is maintained. A corresponding non-dimensionalization is proposed, which allows conversion of the new Reynolds number definition to the classical ones. Linear stability analysis for the new class of solutions reveals a compound neutral surface which contains the classical neutral curves of the SHBL and the ASBL. It is shown that the linearly most unstable Görtler–Hämmerlin modes of the SHBL smoothly transform into Tollmien–Schlichting modes as the chordwise velocity vanishes. These results are useful for transition prediction of the attachment-line instability, especially concerning the use of suction to stabilize boundary layers of swept-wing aircraft.

Quantification of Mitral Regurgitation with Multiple Jets: In Vitro Comparison of Two-dimensional PISA techniques

Purpose: Traditionally, the proximal isovelocity surface area (PISA) is based on the assumption of a single hemisphere (hemispheric PISA), but this technique has not been validated for the quantification of mitral regurgitation (MR) with multiple jets. Methods: The left heart simulator was actuated by a pulsatile pump at various stroke amplitudes. The regurgitant volume (Rvol) passing through the mitral valve phantoms with single and double regurgitant orifices of varying size and interspace was quantified by a flowmeter as reference technique. Color Doppler 3-D full-volumes were obtained, and Rvol were derived from 2-D PISA surfaces on the basis of hemispheric and hemicylindric assumption with one base (partial hemicylindric PISA) or 2 bases (total hemicylindric PISA). Results: 72 regurgitant volumes (Rvol range: 8 to 76 ml/beat) were obtained. Hemispheric PISA Rvol correlated well with reference Rvol by one orifice (R²=0.97; bias -2.7±3.2ml), but less by ≥ one orifice (R²=0.89). When a fusion of two PISAs occured, addition of two hemispheric PISA overestimated Rvol (bias 9.1±12.2ml, fig.1), and single hemispheric PISA underestimated Rvol (bias -12.4±4.9ml). If an integrated approach was used (hemispheric in single orifice, total hemicylindric in two non-fused PISAs and partial hemicylindric in two fused PISAs), the correlation was R²=0.95, bias -1.6±5.6ml (fig.2). In the ROC analysis, the cutoff to detect ≥ moderate-to-severe Rvol (≥45ml) was 42ml (AUC 0.99, sens. 100%, spec. 93%). Conclusions: In MR with two regurgitant jets, the 2-D hemicylindric assumption of the PISA offers a better quantification of Rvol than the hemispheric assumption. Quantification of MR using 2-D PISA requires an integrated approach that considers number of regurgitant orifices and fusion of the PISAs.

Diagnostic Accuracy of Full-Body Linear X-Ray Scanning in Multiple Trauma Patients in Comparison to Computed Tomography

Purpose: The purpose of this study was to evaluate the diagnostic accuracy of full-body linear X-ray scanning (LS) in multiple trauma patients in comparison to 128-multislice computed tomography (MSCT). Materials and Methods: 106 multiple trauma patients (female: 33; male: 73) were retrospectively included in this study. All patients underwent LS of the whole body, including extremities, and MSCT covering the neck, thorax, abdomen, and pelvis. The diagnostic accuracy of LS for the detection of fractures of the truncal skeleton and pneumothoraces was evaluated in comparison to MSCT by two observers in consensus. Extremity fractures detected by LS were documented. Results: The overall sensitivity of LS was 49.2 %, the specificity was 93.3 %, the positive predictive value was 91 %, and the negative predictive value was 57.5 %. The overall sensitivity for vertebral fractures was 16.7 %, and the specificity was 100 %. The sensitivity was 48.7 % and the specificity 98.2 % for all other fractures. Pneumothoraces were detected in 12 patients by CT, but not by LS. 40 extremity fractures were detected by LS, of which 4 fractures were dislocated, and 2 were fully covered by MSCT. Conclusion: The diagnostic accuracy of LS is limited in the evaluation of acute trauma of the truncal skeleton. LS allows fast whole-body X-ray imaging, and may be valuable for detecting extremity fractures in trauma patients in addition to MSCT. Key Points: • The overall sensitivity of LS for truncal skeleton injuries in multiple-trauma patients was < 50 %.• The diagnostic reference standard MSCT is the preferred and reliable imaging modality.• LS may be valuable for quick detection of extremity fractures. Citation Format: • Jöres APW., Heverhagen JT, Bonél H et al. Diagnostic Accuracy of Full-Body Linear X-Ray Scanning in Multiple Trauma Patients in Comparison to Computed Tomography. Fortschr Röntgenstr 2016; 188: 163 - 171.

Patterns of landscape form in the upper Rhône basin, Central Swiss Alps, predominantly show lithologic controls despite multiple glaciations and variations in rock uplift rates

The development of topography depends mainly on the interplay between uplift and erosion. These processes are controlled by various factors including climate, glaciers, lithology, seismic activity and short-term variables, such as anthropogenic impact. Many studies in orogens all over the world have shown how these controlling variables may affect the landscape's topography. In particular, it has been hypothesized that lithology exerts a dominant control on erosion rates and landscape morphology. However, clear demonstrations of this influence are rare and difficult to disentangle from the overprint of other signals such as climate or tectonics. In this study we focus on the upper Rhône Basin situated in the Central Swiss Alps in order to explore the relation between topography, possible controlling variables and lithology in particular. The Rhône Basin has been affected by spatially variable uplift, high orographically driven rainfalls and multiple glaciations. Furthermore, lithology and erodibility vary substantially within the basin. Thanks to high-resolution geological, climatic and topographic data, the Rhône Basin is a suitable laboratory to explore these complexities. Elevation, relief, slope and hypsometric data as well as river profile information from digital elevation models are used to characterize the landscape's topography of around 50 tributary basins. Additionally, uplift over different timescales, glacial inheritance, precipitation patterns and erodibility of the underlying bedrock are quantified for each basin. Results show that the chosen topographic and controlling variables vary remarkably between different tributary basins. We investigate the link between observed topographic differences and the possible controlling variables through statistical analyses. Variations of elevation, slope and relief seem to be linked to differences in long-term uplift rate, whereas elevation distributions (hypsometry) and river profile shapes may be related to glacial imprint. This confirms that the landscape of the Rhône Basin has been highly preconditioned by (past) uplift and glaciation. Linear discriminant analyses (LDAs), however, suggest a stronger link between observed topographic variations and differences in erodibility. We therefore conclude that despite evident glacial and tectonic conditioning, a lithologic control is still preserved and measurable in the landscape of the Rhône tributary basins.